Phew!  We can all breathe a sigh of relief.  Thanks to a big dose of comeuppance, the Process Rule (Rule 8, Section 1, Article 3) keeps me from writing about the Cowboys in the NFC Championship Game.  Thank you, Process Rule.  And now, on to the show.

Green Bay at Seattle (-7)

Let’s get it on!

This is the matchup that we all wanted.  Number 1 v Number 2 for a trip to the Super Bowl.  The Packers limp in to Seattle and will try to Discount Double-Check themselves to the Super Bowl.  Meanwhile, Seattle, and their loudest fans ever (The Machine’s already debunked that nonsense) will try to make it to back-to-back Super Bowls, for the first time since the Patriots in ’04 and ’05.

Rodgers v. Beastmode

We don’t have to go back too far for some history on these teams.  They played each other this season, Week 1 in Seattle.  The Seahawks were 4.5 point favorites and went on to roll the Packers 36-16.  In that game, Aaron Rogers did not throw to Richard Sherman’s side once (a stat that ESPN has brought up much too often this week).  But the passing game takes second place to the run, which is the important stat to focus on.  In that Week 1 game, Green Bay rushed for 80 yards, 1 td.  Seattle rushed for 207 with and 2 tds.  (A healthy) Eddie Lacy rushed for 34 yards, while Beastmode tallied 110.

Listen up all you “new age” football thinkers (you know who they are…the same people who thought Johnny Football and Tavon Austin were going to revolutionize the game)… as you get deeper and deeper into the playoffs, what you need is a consistent running game.  Sure, a fast, punishing, intelligent defense helps, but the running game is the oar that steers the boat, the wings that fly the plane, the 12 pack that makes the baby…you get the point.  The running game helps you eat up the clock, wear out the defense, and keep the other team’s offense off the field.

Listen we love Aaron Rogers…healthy.  We love Eddie Lacy…healthy.  Throwing for 3 tds against the Cowboys on a gimpy calf (at home) is one thing, but can he pull it off on the road against the nastiest D in 30 years? (props to the ’85 Bears).  And can he pull it off with a banged up rushing attack?  As much as we love the story, we don’t think so.

Don’t forget about me!

Bettors seem to think there’s a chance.  The line opened at Green Bay +8.5 and is now down to +7.  The late money is going on the Packers.  But The Machine thinks Seattle will win and cover, but barely.  Like 21-13.  Seattle has so much balance on offense, plus balance between offense and defense.  They are the most complete team in the NFL.

If Aaron and Eddie were healthy, this would be a much harder pick.  But they’re not, and we got to play the cards we’re dealt.  Green Bay’s defense is no slouch, Clay Matthews and crew fly to the ball, so they should keep Russell Wilson in check.  As long as they contain the edge, they should be able to handle the read-option.  Problem is, no one contains the edge in the NFL…they always over-pursue the runner, leaving gaping backside holes for Wilson.  Look for the Seahawks to use some trick up their sleeve…Pete Carroll isn’t going to let Belichick win the crafty coach award two weeks in a row.

And don’t forget the weather.  Rain and wind, making the running game even more important.  See, it all comes full circle.

The Machine likes the Seahawks to return to the Super Bowl.

We love our NFL fans!

Yowza!

4 teams enter, 2 teams leave!

I know, I know.  You’re still upset about how the refs handed the Cowboys the game last week.  So are we, but they don’t play until tomorrow, so The Machine will hold back its disbelief for another day, and instead focus on today’s games.

Baltimore at New England (-7.5)

How will the Patriots cheat their way to victory?

If you can only watch one game today (we don’t know why you would do that) it would be this game.  At first glance, you say the Patriots will roll.  The aura of Belichick and Brady, plus Gronk, plus playing at home, should be enough for New England to win.  But consider two things:

One:      The Patriots can’t cheat anymore (how many post-Spygate Super Bowls have they won?)

Two:      Joe Flacco.

Yes, Joe Flacco.  Flacco is about as bland a guy as you’ll find.  He makes Alex Smith look like a badass.  Christ, he went to the University of Delaware.  The Fighting Blue Hens.  But Joe has quietly put together a solid year, throwing for a career high in yards (3,986) and touchdowns (27).  Also, this just in:  Joe Flacco is good in the playoffs.  Real good.

In his last 9 playoff games, he’s thrown for 20 tds with only 2 ints.  Not surprisingly, the Ravens at 7-2 (with a Super Bowl) over that stretch.

That said, Brady is no slouch, and the Patriots have Revis Island to shut down Steve Smith.  Plus, our conspiracy theory radar is on high – given last week’s Cowboys game – which means the NFL will do anything for another Brady/Manning showdown.  And, the Ravens have no one to cover Gronk…he will create match-up nightmares all day.

The refs will make sure the “no one touch Tom” rule is in full effect.

Speaking of Gronk, here’s our literary recommendation for the week:

Mrs. Machine’s book club pick of the week.

The Machine thinks this game will be close.  The Patriots will likely pull it out, but we like Baltimore with the points.

Carolina at Seattle (-12)

Chances of snooze fest? Likely.

Normally, when a team is a double-digit underdog, it means they’re not good.  That theory holds true today as Carolina travels to Seattle.  Yes, Carolina looked impressive last week against Arizona and third string QB Ryan Lindley, but they have their work cut out for them as they won’t be facing a JV quarterback.  Instead, they’re up against a Seattle team that is peaking at just the right time.

Seattle has been up and down this year, but there’s no question where they are as of late.  Seattle’s won 6 games in row (9 of their last 10) and are playing at a championship level.  They’re also 7-1 at home.

The real match-up to watch will be the Carolina run game v. Seattle’s run D.  The Panthers lead the league with 172 rushing yards per game…Seattle only allows 81 yards on the ground a game, good for third in the league.  If Seattle can shut down the running game, that will force Cam to throw the ball, and he has struggled at that this year.  We think the Seattle D is up to the task at handling the Panthers run game.  Seattle is very familiar with the read/option, as their offense uses it often.  Thus, Michael Bennet, Cliff Avril and the rest of the line know how to contain the edge, and not overpursue the runner.  If they can shut down Carolina’s read option, this game will get out of hand quick.

Also, The Machine’s calling another epic Beast Mode run.  Like this.

Yeah, yeah, we know these teams played each other this year (in Carolina) and Seattle only won by 4.  We don’t care.  That was in October.  Don’t be afraid of the points.  We like Seattle to cover.

No wonder why the fans are so loud.

So The Machine was 1-1 yesterday.  Not bad, but we think we can make a clean sweep of it today with our picks.  Let’s get right to it.

Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-3.5)

This is a no brainer.  Colts all day.  Despite the fact that The Machine wants to see a ginger quarterback win a Super Bowl (America’s not ready for it) today’s not the day.  With AJ Green not suiting up, the Bengals offense goes from good to not so good.  They will have to rely on Jeremy Hill and their running game to set up the passing game.  But Indy will be able to load the box all day.

The Colts, meanwhile, are an interesting team.  You know the philosophy that you need a balanced offensive attack, both on the ground and in the air?  Well, throw that conventional wisdom out the door.  The Colts running game is very bad…anyone that was stuck with Trent Richardson knows that.  However, their passing game more than makes up for that deficiency…anyone that had Andrew Luck knows that.  The Colts love to throw the ball, and Luck has an arsenal of potent receivers.  Andrew Luck is a freak, and is reminiscent of a young Peyton Manning.  Let’s hope that Andrew doesn’t inherit Peyton’s playoff woes.  He won’t, at least not today.

The Machine likes the Colts to roll at home.

Detroit at Dallas (-7)

Oh man, what a way to end Wildcard Weekend.  The team with the player everyone hates against the team that everyone hates (you guess who I’m talking about).  Yes, Ndamukong Suh being back in the lineup certainly helps Detroit’s chances, and they do have a pretty potent offense.  And yes, Dallas has a very solid recent track record of choking in the playoffs, and Tony Romo making some very head scratching decisions.  And The Machine loves it when they cut to the owner’s suite to see Jerrah all pissed off, and then watch him go down to the sidelines.  Oh, it would bring us much joy if the Lions could take down the Cowboys in Jerryland…but alas, it won’t happen.

Tony will eventually prove us right, again.

Dallas probably has the most balanced offense in the playoffs, with Demarco Murray leading the league in rushing and Dez Bryant leading the league in touchdown receptions.  The Lions might hang for a little while, but Dallas’ firepower will be too much.  Jerrah and the boys will make it through.  Don’t worry, Cowboy haters, there’s still plenty of time left in the playoffs for Romo to lose.

For now, The Machine likes the Cowboys to win, and cover.

How ’bout dem Cowboys!

It’s go time!

Welcome to Wildcard Weekend!  Before we get to today’s games, let’s first take a look back at the regular season, and see who ended up winning the Big Red Sports Machine’s Pick with the Pros [pops champagne].  Yes sir, for the second year in a row, Ginger King walks away with the regular season crown.  I walk around the house with a better sense of pride, and my kids (and Mrs. Machine) are in awe of my (non-money making) ability to pick games against the spread.  Some day…

Mrs. Machine on Christmas.

Anyway, until the Big Red Sports Machine opens up its off-shore betting service (what’s you New Years Resolution?) let’s look at today’s playoff match-ups.

Arizona at Carolina (-6.5)

In the day’s first match-up, the 11-5 Cardinals travel to the 7-8-1 Panthers.  First, stop with the whole “how does a losing team make the playoffs AND get a home game”?  Enough whining, already.  Carolina won the NFC South.  Plain and simple.  Stop trying to over-regulate it.  The Panthers are at home, going against 3^rd string quarterback Ryan Lindley.  You got to like that match-up, right?

With that said, there’s no way in hell Carolina covers 6.5 points.  In fact, the Machine likes the Cardinals to win this outright.  Say what you want about Carolina being in the playoffs (actually don’t, because it’s annoying) but they’re still not a good team.  Cam Newton has regressed, throwing the fewest tds (18), yards (3,127) and most fumbles (6) in his career.  As Cam goes, so go the Panthers.

The Cardinals, however, are more of a complete team, and have been able to withstand promoting the ball boy to starting quarterback.  Patrick Peterson is the most underrated corner in the league.  He will be a difference maker.  The Cardinals game plan should be to force Cam to throw the ball.  Even with promising rookie Kelvin Benjamin ,the Panthers passing attack isn’t great.  Letting Steve Smith leave will haunt them.

Take the Cardinals.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-7)

Smash mouth baby!

You better take the Ravens with the points before Vegas shuts this line down.  With Le’Veon Bell in, Pittsburgh wins this game handily.  The Steelers are tough to beat at home (6-2 this year) and even more so in the playoffs.  Bell is their workhorse.  He ran for over 1,300 yards and 8 td, and also had 83 catches for over 850 yards and 3 tds.

But, with Le’Veon Bell out, this game has become a toss-up.  The Steelers are now one dimension.  Granted, it’s a pretty good dimension, with Big Ben and stud receiver Antonio Brown.  Brown led the league with 129 receptions for a league best 1,698 yards.  He simply looks unstoppable at times.  But how much of that potent passing attack is predicated on the efficiency of the running game?  Regardless, Brown is simply too good to not be a factor.  Pittsburgh will get him involved, perhaps even in the running game (we’re calling an end around).

On the other side, Baltimore has quietly put together a solid season.  They lost Ray Rice, but still had a top 10 rushing offense, running for over 126 yards a game, good for 8^th overall.  Baltimore will want to play the ball control game, with long, time-consuming drives.  They can do that behind their offensive line.  Pittsburgh’s D isn’t what it used to be…James Harrison is back, but he’s not any younger.  They are vulnerable.  Look for Baltimore to use the run game to set up the play action deep ball to Torrey Smith.

This game will be close.  Take Baltimore and the points.

The Steelers can cover, just not 7 points.