So far I’ve spent this April trying to best my own record for how many Oreo’s I can fit in my mouth (5), rebooted my computer 87,000 times thanks to IT “patches” and have come to the realization that people whom home-school their children are crazier than Joe Exotic!
I need this Draft. We all need this Draft. We need the drama, intrigue and suspense. Couple that with a worldwide pandemic that has GM’s drafting via Zoom, and you’ve got the recipe for an epic shitshow. God I wish Al Davis were around for this! R.I.P. AL. Alas, there are still plenty of GMs that are going to fuck this up….looking at you Gettleman. Over/Under on “my account was hacked” excuses? 2.5?
Onto the mock! I used Draft Networks ridiculously awesome Mock Draft Simulator to put this together…….
Burrow and Young are locked and loaded to go one, two. I don’t buy the rumor of the Skins’ taking Tua. Young is the best player in the draft and will make an impact similar to Joey Bosa (and they’d rather have Lawrence next year!).
Okudah to the Lions makes so much sense that I can’t see the Lions actually going through with it. They don’t necessarily draft the best player, but they seem to have a thing for “break the mold” types (like taking Hockenson over Ed Oliver last year)…. probably to feed Matt Patricia’s mad scientist persona.
That’s five offensive tackles in the first 14 picks. Listen, the Bucs entire draft plan (and team building strategy) changed with the signing of Brady. Their window is THIS year. The defense is talented and they have play-makers at receiver and tight-end. Pick 14 will be and offensive linemen or a RB. Book it.
Rick Spielman has two first round picks….guarantee he drafts at least one DB. And there it is, at Pick 23 Belichick ushers in a new era.
Love this haul for the Dolphins: Herbert, Kinlaw and Jones. Yessir!
What a fun night, unless of course you’re a Giants fan. Y’all just got Gettleman’d. It wasn’t a complete waste, check out Giant Superfan Ginger King’s Final Mock, he killed it! Nostradamus level shit right there. And if you were following along to the Big Red Sports Machine Draft Day Drinking Game, how could you not have fun?! Fireworks are sure to ensue tonight. Here’s my stab at the mayhem….
Mock Draft Szn! In less than 3 weeks this mock (and all of the others) will look sillier than Greg Schiano’s latest coaching stint with the Pats. Onto the (projected) madness…..
Kyler Murray (Oklahoma)
San Francisco 49ers
Nick Bosa (OSU)
New York Jets
Josh Allen (Kentucky)
Quinnen Williams (Alabama)
Tamp Bay Bucs
Devin White (LSU)
New York Giants
Jawaan Taylor (Florida)
T.J. Hockenson (Iowa)
Ed Oliver (Houston)
Montez Sweat (Miss St)
Dwayne Haskins (OSU)
Rashan Gary (Michigan)
Green Bay Packers
Johan Willliams (Alabama)
Drew Lock (Missouri)
Byron Murphy (Washington)
Greedy Williams (LSU)
D.K. Metcalf (Ole Miss)
New York Giants
Brian Burns (FSU)
Wait, so Kliff Kingsbury is calling the shots in Arizona now? The same Kliff Kingsbury that was fired by Texas Tech in November? The same Kliff Kingsbury whom was unable to turn college Patrick Mahomes into a household name?! You’re letting this douchebag call the shots? Good luck with that Arizona; we’ll be mocking you in the Top 5 for years to come.
Tomorrow either the Patriots (barf) or Rams will hoist the Lombardi Trophy and become World Champions. But let’s get onto what really matters (no, not the commercials!), the GAMBLING!
Sportbook William-Hill is offering more than 440 prop bets on the big game. We’ve scoured the prop sheet to cherry-pick our favorite action (you won’t find the over/under on the length of the National Anthem, or the color of Adam Levine’s shirt), without further ado…..
Opening Coin Toss Winner
First Pass by
Tom Brady: Complete or Incomplete
Reception by Julian Edelman, (O/U) 9.5 yards
First Rush by
James White, (O/U) 3.5 yards
Yards by Tom Brady, (O/U) 1.5
Yards by James White, (O/U) 17.5
Reception by Rob Gronkowski (O/U) 20.5
Completions by Jared Goff (O/U) 24.5
Touchdown Passes by Jared Goff (O/U) 2
by Todd Gurley (O/U) 20.5
Reception by Todd Gurley, (O/U) 7.5 yards
Attempt by CJ Anderson (O/U) 3.5 yards
Receptions by Josh Reynolds (O/U) 3.5
Reception by Robert Woods (O/U) 22.5 yards
happen first, Rams score or punt
Completions: Brady or Goff
Passing Yards: Brady or Goff
Touchdown Passes: Brady or Goff
of First Player to Score a Touchdown (O/U) 26.5
Gostkowski or Zuerlein
First Team to
use Coach’s Challenge
Sacks by both teams, (O/U) 3.5
Touchdown of the game, (O/U) 1.5 yards
First Team to
Goal of the Game (O/U) 47.5
Touchdown of the Game (O/U) 49.5
Team to score
last in the first half
Game will be
decided by exactly 3 points (Y/N)
of Players to have a passing attempt, (O/U) 2.5
Will there be
a Special Teams or Defensive Touchdown (Y/N)
…and that’s not just the delusional Bills fan in me speaking. They are going to win because they are the better team (expert analysis!).
Before I dissect the reasons (spoiler alert, there’s only one reason the Rams are going to win, but it’s a big fuckin reason. So feel free to skip the next 800 words or so if you’re in a hurry or if you’re like me and the only chance you have to freely read sports articles is while on the shitter), I’ve got to throw a Tuesday Teabag at this:
Juuuust when you thought you couldn’t hate this cheatin’ kalehole anymore he doubles down on the douche. He’s leading the charge, and dropping the mic, on the ‘we’re not going anywhere underdog’ platform?! I just threw up all over the keyboard. Pre-season favorite to win the AFC. GOAT Coach. GOAT QB. 3rd consecutive trip to the Super Bowl (geez, I’m only adding to Ginger King’s argument here). But yeah, they want the underdog role too. GTFO!
Recency bias is a dangerous beast, and it’s causing NFL fans to forget everything that happened prior to the Conference Championships. The lasting image fans have of the Patriots: they went to Arrowhead and beat Mahomes and the high-flying Chiefs. Forget the fact that they played a perfect game, got a fortuitous bounce (it hit Edelmen’s thumb btw), and seemingly had every replay review go their way. And they still needed overtime to pull off the victory; an overtime that included winning the coin flip (about the only thing Belichick hasn’t found a way to cheat….yet), converted three 3rd-and-10’s, and got an inexplicable defensive off-sides that negated an ugly Tom Brady interception. It also helps when you’re coaching against a Walrus. Good God, still waiting for that defense adjustment Andy Reid. Maybe mix in a blitz or two. Enjoy those timeouts you get to take with you to the links.
And on the flipside, the lasting impression of your NFC
Champion LA Rams: you don’t belong. You
don’t deserve to be here. You got a free
call. A non-call, which don’t get me wrong,
was historically egregious, but it didn’t/wouldn’t have ended the game. Honestly, the Saints piss pour clock
management (incomplete pass on 1st down) set themselves up to have
to throw in that spot. The Saints, like
the Patriots, won the stupid coin toss in overtime. Was that blown call still clouding Drew Brees’
judgment when he tossed that lame duck pick?
The Rams caught a break, but they won that game.
So the narrative is born:
The Greatest Destiny ever assembled vs. the team that doesn’t belong. And
the Rams are going to have to hear that ALL.WEEK. LONG. If that doesn’t put a chip on their shoulder,
If this game were played at a neutral location, at ANY point during the season, the Rams would be favored. Probably by a field goal. Yet, the line is Patriots -2.5 (hullo value bet!). And 78% of the money has come in on the Patriots, which means Vegas stands to make a boatload of money if one of these three scenarios plays out:
Rams lose by 1.
Rams lose by 2.
I think siding with the books is what they call “smart money”.
Offensively, the Rams are going to be able to move the ball. Belichick’s MO has always been to “take away the other team’s best player”. The Chiefs gameplan was a clinic. Double-team the best player (Tyreek Hill); put Gilmore in one-on-one coverage against the other team’s No. 2 receiver (Watkins); crowd the middle of the field to take the read away from the tight-end (Kelce) and make RB’s and No. 3 WR beat you while twisting and stunting your defensive linemen to generate pressure. Except, the Rams don’t rely on a number No.1 guy, they spread the ball around to Woods, Cooks, and Reynolds (who’s picked up the slack after they lost Cooper Kupp). McVay, the boy genius, has no qualms committing to running the ball (48 carries [!] for 273 yards against the #5 Dallas rush defense/ 26 carries – despite falling behind early- for 80 yards against the Saints #1 rush defense). Moving the ball and scoring points has never been a problem for the No. 3 overall offense in football. It also doesn’t hurt that they have the best special teams unit in the NFL, a pro bowl punter (who’s not afraid to fake it) and a kicker whose nickname is ‘The Leg’.
But like I said, there’s one reason, and one reason only why the Rams are going to win this game: their DEFENSIVE LINE. A nasty defensive line is the ultimate cheat code to beat the Patriots! It’s their kryptonite. It’s shooting your shot at the Death Stars’ one weakness! A stroll down memory lane shall we:
20, St. Louis 17
32, Carolina 29
24, Philadelphia 21
Giants 17, New England 14
New York Giants 21, New England 17
New England 28, Seattle Seahawks 24
New England 34, Atlanta Falcons 28
Philadelphia Eagles 41, New England 33
Look at those 3 (soon to be 4) big fat L’s and tell me what they have in common. No, not that they are all NFC East teams, smartass. All the teams that beat the Patriots had sick defensive lines. Remember Tuck, Strahan and Umenyiora harassing the shit out of Brady all game long (Ginger King sure does). Last year’s Eagle line played behind the line of scrimmage all game long. And speaking of those Eagle, the Rams front four is eerie similar:
Cox = Donald
Bennett = Suh
Long = Fowler
Graham = Brockers
In fact, the Rams front four is MORE talented. Aaron Donald is the non-QB MVP of the league with his league leading 20.5 sacks (from the DT position!)! Donald consistently beats double teams with his blend of power, speed, and quickness. And if you double him all game long (which you should), you’re leaving Suh one on one. Suh is a beast…when he wants to be. Sure, he takes of plays/games/months and is the Santa Claus of dirty plays (always seemingly pulling a new one out of the bag), but when motivated, the big man still gets after it. As such, he was a difference maker in both of the Rams playoff games this year.
Sure, the Patriots have “experience” on their side, but that
shit doesn’t matter. Doug Peterson and
Big Dick Nick didn’t have experience last year.
But they were aggressive, took the fight to the Patriots, went for it on
4th down and scored touchdowns, not field goals. Yeah, I think McVay will be just fine.
So give me the Rams straight up and let me enjoy those Gisele Bundchen tears once again!
Instant Analysis: Looks like it’s down to Darnold or Mayfield for the Browns. I’m sticking to my guns with Darnold. It appears the Giants aren’t budging from No. 2. Can they really trade for a punter and draft a running back second overall in the span of two weeks? Is this 1998? I’m giving them Chubb on principle alone. Mayfield to the Jets seems like a done deal. Nelson is the best (non-QB) in this draft. The Broncos would like to move back, but when Barkley falls to them they pounce. Need meets value.
Should the board fall like this: 2 QB’s + Barkley + Chubb + Nelson, then No. 6 seems like the ideal spot for a team to trade up to land either Rosen or Allen.
1st Round Breakdown:
QB = 6
RB = 2
WR = 3
TE = 0
OL = 6
DL = 5
LB = 5
DB = 5
Instant Analysis: Darnold still holds down the top spot, although it is getting harder and harder to ignore the Josh Allen-to-the-Browns chatter. I already laid out the argument why the Giants should draft their next franchise quarterback here, but for this mock I’m going to give them the only other player they should consider at 2: DE Bradley Chubb. Gettleman is old school; he’ll love the positional value of getting a pass rusher with a premium draft pick. I think the Jets are smitten with Baker Mayfield, but really after the Christian Heckenburg disaster they’ll settle for any one of the top 4 QBs. Cleveland adds the best corner in the draft (an area of desperate need for this team). McGlinchey is the first real surprise (but not the last) of this mock. Denver tried to upgrade their O-line with a nixed trade with the Dolphins for Ja’Wuan James. Gil Brandt thinks the Notre Dame prospect is going in the Top 10, so why not to Denver? Indy will be tempted to trade down, but when a blue-chip prospect like Nelson falls in their lap they should sprint to the podium. Same goes for the Bucs with Barkley. I’m not exactly projecting trades in this mock per se, but the way the board has fallen so far, the Bears are in the catbird seat to trade down (and still have a chance at landing the prospect they are eyeing). This would be seen as a big win for Ryan Pace, whom still has a black eye after the drubbing he took for jumping one spot last year for Trubisky.
I’ll probably be dead-wrong about Sutton (my highest rated WR this year), but I totally expect John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan to invest heavily on the offensive side of the ball this draft. Jimmy G about to get some new weapons! Due to the QB-heavy nature of this draft, some teams that are patience and sit tight are going to have studs fall into their laps. Smith (Georgia) and Vea (Washington) fit that description well. Inevitably, a couple of these QBs will tumble come draft day; in this mock that is Josh Alllen and Lamar Jackson. Washington could trade out, or take one of the quarterbacks. Afterall, everywhere Alex Smith ends up the team immediately drafts his replacement.
Defense dominates the bottom half of this mock. The smart play at the bottom third of the first round is to grab a QB and lock up that 5th year option. That’s exactly what I have the Saints and Jags doing by taking Jackson and Rudolph at 27 and 29, respectfully.