Super Bowl Prop Bet Extravaganza!

Tomorrow either the Patriots (barf) or Rams will hoist the Lombardi Trophy and become World Champions. But let’s get onto what really matters (no, not the commercials!), the GAMBLING!

Sportbook William-Hill is offering more than 440 prop bets on the big game. We’ve scoured the prop sheet to cherry-pick our favorite action (you won’t find the over/under on the length of the National Anthem, or the color of Adam Levine’s shirt), without further ado…..

PropGKRR
Opening Coin Toss WinnerRamsNE
First Pass by Tom Brady: Complete or IncompleteCompleteComplete
First Reception by Julian Edelman, (O/U) 9.5 yardsOU
First Rush by James White, (O/U) 3.5 yardsUU
Total Rushing Yards by Tom Brady, (O/U) 1.5UU
Total Rushing Yards by James White, (O/U) 17.5OO
Longest Reception by Rob Gronkowski (O/U) 20.5OU
Total Completions by Jared Goff (O/U) 24.5UO
Total Touchdown Passes by Jared Goff (O/U) 2OO
Longest Rush by Todd Gurley (O/U) 20.5UU
First Reception by Todd Gurley, (O/U) 7.5 yardsUO
First Rushing Attempt by CJ Anderson (O/U) 3.5 yardsOU
Total Receptions by Josh Reynolds (O/U) 3.5OO
Longest Reception by Robert Woods (O/U) 22.5 yardsOU
What will happen first, Rams score or puntScorePunt
More Completions: Brady or GoffBradyBrady
More Gross Passing Yards: Brady or GoffGoffGoff
More Touchdown Passes: Brady or GoffBradyGoff
Jersey Number of First Player to Score a Touchdown (O/U) 26.5OU
More Points: Gostkowski or ZuerleinZuerleinZuerlein
First Team to use Coach’s ChallengeNENE
Total QB Sacks by both teams, (O/U) 3.5UU
Shortest Touchdown of the game, (O/U) 1.5 yardsUU
First Team to ScoreRamsNE
Longest Field Goal of the Game (O/U) 47.5OO
Longest Touchdown of the Game (O/U) 49.5OU
Team to score last in the first halfNENE
Game will be decided by exactly 3 points (Y/N)NN
Total Number of Players to have a passing attempt, (O/U) 2.5OO
Will there be a Special Teams or Defensive Touchdown (Y/N)NN
Total punts by both teams (O/U) 6.5UU

The Los Angeles Rams are going to win the Super Bowl….

…and that’s not just the delusional Bills fan in me speaking.  They are going to win because they are the better team (expert analysis!).

Let’s get it on!

Before I dissect the reasons (spoiler alert, there’s only one reason the Rams are going to win, but it’s a big fuckin reason.  So feel free to skip the next  800 words or so if you’re in a hurry or if you’re like me and the only chance you have to freely read sports articles is while on the shitter), I’ve got to throw a Tuesday Teabag at this:

Juuuust when you thought you couldn’t hate this cheatin’ kalehole anymore he doubles down on the douche.  He’s leading the charge, and dropping the mic, on the ‘we’re not going anywhere underdog’ platform?!  I just threw up all over the keyboard.  Pre-season favorite to win the AFC.  GOAT Coach.  GOAT QB. 3rd consecutive trip to the Super Bowl (geez, I’m only adding to Ginger King’s argument here). But yeah, they want the underdog role too.  GTFO!

Recency bias is a dangerous beast, and it’s causing NFL fans to forget everything that happened prior to the Conference Championships.  The lasting image fans have of the Patriots:  they went to Arrowhead and beat Mahomes and the high-flying Chiefs.  Forget the fact that they played a perfect game, got a fortuitous bounce (it hit Edelmen’s thumb btw), and seemingly had every replay review go their way.  And they still needed overtime to pull off the victory; an overtime that included winning the coin flip (about the only thing Belichick hasn’t found a way to cheat….yet), converted three 3rd-and-10’s, and got an inexplicable defensive off-sides that negated an ugly Tom Brady interception.  It also helps when you’re coaching against a Walrus.  Good God, still waiting for that defense adjustment Andy Reid.  Maybe mix in a blitz or two.  Enjoy those timeouts you get to take with you to the links.

And on the flipside, the lasting impression of your NFC Champion LA Rams: you don’t belong.  You don’t deserve to be here.  You got a free call.  A non-call, which don’t get me wrong, was historically egregious, but it didn’t/wouldn’t have ended the game.  Honestly, the Saints piss pour clock management (incomplete pass on 1st down) set themselves up to have to throw in that spot.  The Saints, like the Patriots, won the stupid coin toss in overtime.  Was that blown call still clouding Drew Brees’ judgment when he tossed that lame duck pick?  The Rams caught a break, but they won that game.

Choppa style

So the narrative is born:  The Greatest Destiny ever assembled vs. the team that doesn’t belong.   And the Rams are going to have to hear that ALL.WEEK. LONG.  If that doesn’t put a chip on their shoulder, nothing will!

If this game were played at a neutral location, at ANY point during the season, the Rams would be favored.  Probably by a field goal.  Yet, the line is Patriots -2.5 (hullo value bet!).  And 78% of the money has come in on the Patriots, which means Vegas stands to make a boatload of money if one of these three scenarios plays out:

Rams win.

Rams lose by 1.

Rams lose by 2.

I think siding with the books is what they call “smart money”.

Offensively, the Rams are going to be able to move the ball.  Belichick’s MO has always been to “take away the other team’s best player”.  The Chiefs gameplan was a clinic.  Double-team the best player (Tyreek Hill); put Gilmore in one-on-one coverage against the other team’s No. 2 receiver (Watkins); crowd the middle of the field to take the read away from the tight-end (Kelce) and make RB’s and No. 3 WR beat you while twisting and stunting your defensive linemen to generate pressure.  Except, the Rams don’t rely on a number No.1 guy, they spread the ball around to Woods, Cooks, and Reynolds (who’s picked up the slack after they lost Cooper Kupp).  McVay, the boy genius, has no qualms committing to running the ball (48 carries [!] for 273 yards against the #5 Dallas rush defense/ 26 carries – despite falling behind early-  for 80 yards against the Saints #1 rush defense).  Moving the ball and scoring points has never been a problem for the No. 3 overall offense in football.  It also doesn’t hurt that they have the best special teams unit in the NFL, a pro bowl punter (who’s not afraid to fake it) and a kicker whose nickname is ‘The Leg’.

Greg the Leg for the win!

But like I said, there’s one reason, and one reason only why the Rams are going to win this game:  their DEFENSIVE LINE.  A nasty defensive line is the ultimate cheat code to beat the Patriots!  It’s their kryptonite.  It’s shooting your shot at the Death Stars’ one weakness!  A stroll down memory lane shall we:

2002 SB36 New England 20, St. Louis 17 W
2004 SB38 New England 32, Carolina 29 W
2005 SB39 New England 24, Philadelphia 21 W
2008 SB42 New York Giants 17, New England 14 L
2012 SB46 New York Giants 21, New England 17 L
2015 SB49 New England 28, Seattle Seahawks 24 W
2017 SB51 New England 34, Atlanta Falcons 28 W
2018 SB52 Philadelphia Eagles 41, New England 33 L

Look at those 3 (soon to be 4) big fat L’s and tell me what they have in common.  No, not that they are all NFC East teams, smartass.  All the teams that beat the Patriots had sick defensive lines.  Remember Tuck, Strahan and Umenyiora harassing the shit out of Brady all game long (Ginger King sure does).  Last year’s Eagle line played behind the line of scrimmage all game long.  And speaking of those Eagle, the Rams front four is eerie similar:

Cox  = Donald

Bennett = Suh

Long = Fowler

Graham = Brockers

’bout to go on that TB12 diet

In fact, the Rams front four is MORE talented.  Aaron Donald is the non-QB MVP of the league with his league leading 20.5 sacks (from the DT position!)!  Donald consistently beats double teams with his blend of power, speed, and quickness.  And if you double him all game long (which you should), you’re leaving Suh one on one.  Suh is a beast…when he wants to be.  Sure, he takes of plays/games/months and is the Santa Claus of dirty plays (always seemingly pulling a new one out of the bag), but when motivated, the big man still gets after it.  As such, he was a difference maker in both of the Rams playoff games this year.

Sure, the Patriots have “experience” on their side, but that shit doesn’t matter.  Doug Peterson and Big Dick Nick didn’t have experience last year.  But they were aggressive, took the fight to the Patriots, went for it on 4th down and scored touchdowns, not field goals.  Yeah, I think McVay will be just fine.

“Yeah, I think McVay will be just fine”

So give me the Rams straight up and let me enjoy those Gisele Bundchen tears once again!

Why the Patriots will win the Super Bowl

Let’s get it on!

Hi friends.  We’re back at it with full Super Bowl coverage.  Roid Rage will try to explain to you why the Rams will win the Super Bowl (you know, the team that doesn’t even belong there and has Todd Gurley at 60% health).  Good luck with that.  I don’t care how hot Sean McVay’s girlfriend is (which, for the record, is really hot), not even that will stop me from going with what we all know, whether we want to admit it:  the New England Patriots will win the Super Bowl.

But Ginger King, isn’t this a departure from your normal, anti-everything New England (except chowder, that shit’s delicious).  Yes, but I forgot to tell you my New Year’s resolution:

Embrace Evil.

Evil begets evil

Yes.  With Sith blood flowing freely through my veins, I can finally recognize and appreciate the greatness of the best football dynasty of all time.  It’s an unprecedented level of success.  Since the turn of the century, the Patriots have won the AFC East 16 times (including 10 in a row) with 5 Super Bowls.  All with the same Coach, same quarterback, and same plug and play receivers and cornerbacks.

I’m even moved by Tom Brady’s hype video:

View this post on Instagram

If you happen to be lucky…

A post shared by Tom Brady (@tombrady) on

The Patriots have been so good, for so long, that they need to invent their own problems.  TB12, Deflategate, awkwardly long mouth to mouth kisses with your children…the Patriots are that bored that they need to make shit up.  And here’s the latest:  that they’re the underdog.

Hands of an underdog.

Seriously.  Is anyone buying this?  Vegas was, for a hot second, when the Patriots were underdogs to Kansas City, you know, the new, high scoring team with a hot shot young quarterback (sound familiar?).  Well, that didn’t last long, and it didn’t take long for the Patriots to acknowledge it either.  The New England smugness was in full effect, just minutes after the AFC Championship Game.

And why were the Patriots thought of as underdogs, you ask?  Because [putting tinfoil hat on] they manufactured that message, too.  Yes, with a somewhat pedestrian regular season (by Patriot standards), the Patriots crafted this story line that they’re the underdogs.  That they don’t have the firepower they used to.  A muted Gronk.  That they’re too old, and a shell of their former selves.  Well, don’t believe it for a second.  Let’s break this down, shall we.

They don’t have the firepower they used to.

FALSE.  In fact, they have more firepower this year than last year.  Two words:  Julian Edleman.  Julian may not be thought of as one of the best receivers in the league, but that’s only because you’re not thinking hard enough.  Come playoff time, his numbers are HOF worthy.  Edleman is second in all-time playoff receptions (behind Jerry Rice) and only needs 45 yards to be second in all-time receiving yards (again, behind Jerry Rice).  And he didn’t play in the Super Bowl last year, as he was out with a knee injury.  With a healthy Edleman, Brady has his do everything receiver back.  And you heard it hear first:  Edleman will throw a touchdown pass.  We’re calling this the Patriot Special (suck it, Philly).

Muted Gronk

FALSE.  Sure, our favorite meathead/future Celebrity Big Brother had a career low 3 tds, a depressing 47 receptions, and oftentimes looked slow and broken down this season (check out the Miami Miracle and you’ll see what I mean).  But when it mattered, Gronk delivered.  Gronk went 6/79 against Kansas City.  Not spectacular, but he came through in the clutch.  On their game-winning overtime drive, 3rd and 10, Brady went to Gronk, who delivered on a 15-yard reception.  That was Brady’s last pass of the game.  And get this:  Gronk was targeted a team high (and season high) 11 times.  Translation:  Gronk’s Tide pod and Monster fueled body still has some gas in the tank.  And it comes at the right time, against the right team.

Chest bumps for everyone!

As tough as the Rams D is, they are vulnerable to tight ends.  During their Week 11 game against Kansas City, Travis Kelce went 10/127/1, with a team high 15 targets.  Gronk will present the same type of matchup dilemma.  It’s a matchup the Patriots will exploit, and Gronk should flourish, especially when lined out wide against a db.  Look for Gronk to lead the Patriots in targets (and fist bumps).

Too Old

FALSE.  This one’s hilarious.  The Patriots suffer from late 90’s/early 00’s Yankees syndrome (don’t say that in Boston, btw).  They’ve been so good, for so long, with such an obnoxious fucking fanbase, that everyone can’t wait for the next best thing to come along.  And that shiny new toy is the Rams…the new team in a new city with the youngest head coach in the NFL.  Sean McVay just turned 33 on Thursday (son of a bitch).  Bill Belichick is literally twice his age.  Jared Goff.  Todd Gurley.  Aaron Donald.  The next dynasty, generation of studs, best hope to beat the Patriots.

Yes, the millennials are here and, unlike every other scenario involving millennials, the whole country is rooting for them.  All of a sudden, the game has passed by the old ball coach.  The hoodie is old news.  Brady’s lost it.  Gronk’s lost it.  The dynasty is over.  Correction;  the dynasty is almost over.  Like Bobby Bacala, Sr. in the Sopranos, Belichick’s got one more hit in him.  One more trick up his sleeve.  They’re just that good.  Look for Bellichick to out-McVay, McVay, and call the games first trick play (e.g., fake fg/punt, trick play).

Think about the head to head comparisons.

Coaching:  Patriots

Quarterback:  Patriots

Receivers:  Patriots

Running Backs:  Push, although I can make a pretty good case this too should be the Patriots.  Sorry, but there’s no way Todd Gurley is at 100% and the Rams’ offensive strategy is to lean on CJ Anderson.  Not buying it.  Gurley had 4 carries for 10 yards against the Saints.  The Rams had 1 rushing touchdown against the Saints, and only 4 rushing touchdowns in the playoffs.  Contrast that with the Patriots, who have had 8 rushing touchdowns in the playoffs, led by rookie stud Sony Michel, who has had 5 rushing touchdowns…more than the entire Rams.

Defense:  Rams, but it’s a lot closer than you think.  The Rams are 31st –that’s right, second to last in the league – at points allowed per game, giving up over 32 points a game.  The Rams and Patriots are tied with 18 interceptions each, and the Patriots have caused more fumbles.  Sure, I’m cherry picking stats to make my case, (let’s not look at sacks or Aaron Donald, ok) but everyone’s acting like this Rams D is the second coming of the ’85 Bears.  Puh-lease.  Not even close.  And while there’s only ever been one ejection in Super Bowl history, look for hot head and dick-stomper Ndamakung Suh to double that total.

Apologies to everyone west of Massachusetts, but come Super Bowl Sunday, evil will prevail.  Evil will also cover the spread, as I love the Patriots at -2.5.  Sorry Rams, your fickle fanbase will soon go back to surfing and LeBron, and will forget that there’s even a team in LA, let alone two.  And Tom Brady will hoist his 6th Super Bowl trophy and go back home to his supermodel wife.  Evil is good.

Patriots:  34, Rams 28

Book the parade.

Mock Draft FINAL (Roid Rage)

Check out Ginger Kings Final Mock Draft and the unofficial (but officially awesome) Big Red Sports Machine Draft Day Drinking Game Rules here.

Let’s get it on!

And now…..

Round 1 Team Pick Position
1 Cleveland Browns Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) QB
2 New York Giants Bradley Chubb (NC State) DE
3 New York Jets Sam Darnold (USC) QB
4 Cleveland Browns Denzel Ward (OSU) CB
5 Denver Broncos Josh Rosen (UCLA) QB
6 Indianapolis Colts Saquon Barkley (PSU) RB
7 Tampa Bay Bucs Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame) OL
8 Chicago Bears Roquan Smith (Georgia) LB
9 San Francisco 49ers Mike McGlinchey (Notre Dame) OL
10 Oakland Raiders Vita Vea (Washington) DT
11 Miami Dolphins Tremaine Edmunds (VA Tech) LB
12 Buffalo Bills Derwin James (FSU) S
13 Washington Redskins Da’Ron Payne (Alabama) DL
14 Green Bay Packers Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama) CB
15 Arizona Cardinals Josh Allen (Wyoming) QB
16 Baltimore Ravens Harold Landry (BC) LB
17 Los Angeles Chargers James Daniels (Iowa) OL
18 Seattle Seahawks Josh Jackson (Iowa) CB
19 Dallas Cowboys DJ Moore (Maryland) WR
20 Detroit Lions Leighton Vander Esch (Boise St) LB
21 Cincinnati Bengals Isaiah Wynn (Georgia) OL
22 Buffalo Bills Marcus Davenport (Texas-SA) DE
23 New England Patriots Taven Bryan (Florida) DL
24 Carolina Panthers Frank Ragnow (Arkansas) OL
25 Tennessee Titans Jaire Alexander (Louisville) CB
26 Atlanta Falcons Kolton Miller (UCLA) OL
27 New Orleans Saints Mike Gesicki (PSU) TE
28 Pittsburgh Steelers Rashaan Evans (Alabama) LB
29 Jacksonville Jaguars Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma St) QB
30 Minnesota Vikings Connor Williams (Texas) OL
31 New England Patriots Lamar Jackson (Louisville) QB
32 Philadelphia Eagles Calvin Ridley (Alabama) WR

Instant Analysis: None needed! Get some!

 

 

The Machine’s Draft Day Drinking Game (2018 ed.)

Cheers!Can’t make it to The Machine’s Draft Day Party?  Well, that sucks for you.  But have no fear…we got your back.  “How can I make the Draft better?”, you ask yourself in amazement.  By playing The Big Red Sports Machine’s Draft Day Drinking Game.  It’s fun, it’s easy, guaranteed to impress the ladies, and you can play at home or at your favorite watering hole.  Here are the rules:

1.  Draft catchphrases.  There are certain phrases you only hear during the Draft.  Why?  We don’t know, but we love them.  For this reason alone, we give ESPN the slight lean over the NFL Network for your draft day coverage.  That, and, Kiper.  Duh, winning!

The following phrases are worth a shot of beer:

  • Raw talent
  • Off-the-field/character issues
  • Live arm
  • High motor
  • Straight line speed
  • Great Value/Upside
  • Dual threat
  • System quarterback
  • Pocket presence
  • Plays in the box (hey oh!)
  • Best player available
  • Intangibles or Measurables
  • War Room
  • New Regime
  • Read-Option
  • Edge Rusher
  • Gets to the Second Level
  • Quick feet
  • Plays in Space

New for 2018:

  • Fluid hips
  • Thick frame
  • Backside protector (hey oh!)

2.  Videos/references.  Each of these are beer-finishing worthy:

  • Reference to Mel’s hair
  • Player on-stage photo-op with family/entourage of 15+
  • Reference to Cleveland Browns front office ineptitude
  • First shot of Drew Rosenhaus in his newest client’s living room
  • First player to cry when their name is called
  • Reference to when Tom Brady was drafted (we’ll also accept Brady’s Combine picture)
  • Reference to Aaron Rodgers draft day slide
  • Video of Brady Quinn in the green room
  • Video of Bill Tobin’s infamous “who the hell is Mel Kiper?” interview during the ’94 Draft
  • And this:

3.  On the Clock Chug.  When your team is on the clock, you have to finish a full beer before the pick is called.  Note:  if your team trades down, they’re on the clock twice, meaning that’s two full beers.  Cowboy up, it’s the Draft!

Basically, if it doesn’t look like this, you’re doing it wrong…..

Beer Chug

Or this:

Beer Chug 2

Mock Draft FINAL (Ginger King)

Let’s get it on!

Round 1 Team Pick Position
1 Cleveland Browns Sam Darnold (USC) QB
2 New York Giants Saquon Barkley (PSU) RB
3 New York Jets Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) QB
4 Cleveland Browns Bradley Chubb (NC State) DE
5 Denver Broncos Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame) OL
6 Indianapolis Colts Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama) CB
7 Tampa Bay Bucs Derwin James (FSU) S
8 Chicago Bears Roquan Smith (Georgia) LB
9 San Francisco 49ers Mike McGlinchy (Notre Dame) OL
10 Oakland Raiders Vita Vea (Washington) DT
11 Miami Dolphins Tremaine Edmunds (VA Tech) LB
12 Buffalo Bills Josh Allen (Wyoming) QB
13 Washington Redskins Da’Ron Payne (Alabama) DT
14 Green Bay Packers Calvin Ridley (Alabama) WR
15 Arizona Cardinals Josh Rosen (UCLA) QB
16 Baltimore Ravens D.J. Moore (Maryland) WR
17 Los Angeles Chargers Josh Jackson (Iowa) CB
18 Seattle Seahawks Denzel Ward (OSU) CB
19 Dallas Cowboys Courtland Sutton (SMU) WR
20 Detroit Lions Harold Landry (Boston College) DE
21 Cincinnati Bengals Frank Ragnow (Arkansas) OL
22 Buffalo Bills Marcus Davenport (UTSA) DE
23 New England Patriots Leighton Vander Esch (Boise St.) LB
24 Carolina Panthers James Daniels (Iowa) OL
25 Tennessee Titans Billy Price (OSU) OL
26 Atlanta Falcons Isaiah Wynn (Georgia) OL
27 New Orleans Saints Lamar Jackson (Louisville) QB
28 Pittsburgh Steelers Rashaan Evans (Alabama) LB
29 Jacksonville Jaguars Jaire Alexander (Louisville) CB
30 Minnesota Vikings Will Hernandez (UTEP) OL
31 New England Patriots Christian Kirk (Texas A&M) WR
32 Philadelphia Eagles Mike Hughes (UCF) CB

Instant Analysis:  Alright, alright, alright.  My final mock draft.  Changes galore.  A lot of noise about Baker to Cleveland at #1, but I just don’t buy it.  This has smokescreen written all over it, trying to get the Jets to trade up for Broadway Baker.  If Cleveland stays put, this pick has to be Darnold.  He’s the most complete package of all the quarterbacks in the Draft.  Maybe Roid Rage will have the balls to go with Baker (he’s still living off his fame of DHB at 7) but my money’s on the Browns picking the surest thing.

While I think the Browns will use smart money, I don’t think the Giants will.  Smart money says take Bradley Chubb, shore up your defense, and then take a running back in the second or third round.  However, I think the Giants are going all-in.  By that, I mean give Eli Manning the last remaining offensive piece for one more run (let’s be honest, Eli’s got 2 at least two years left, he’s 37 people, that’s not old (neither is 39, btw)).  Gettleman wants a gold jacket player…that’s Saquon.  Yes, yes, I know, you can find great value at running back in later rounds.  Le’Veon Bell (2nd Round), Shady McCoy (2nd Round), Alvin Kamara (3rd Round), and last year’s leading rusher, Kareem Hunt (3rd Round).  However, there’s also Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Leonard Fournette, all picked in the Top 10 and all of whom instantly elevated their team to the playoffs.  Yes, you could take Chubb, and then hope that Sony Michelle or Derrius Guice are there in Round 2.  But fuck it, throw caution (reason and logic) to the wind and roll them dice!

Can you imagine???

Elsewhere, both Josh Rosen and Josh Allen slip out of the Top 10, but not too far.  Bills Mafia will have no problems with Josh’s tweets, and will welcome him with open, drunken, arms.  Also, if the Bills can get Davenport at 22, that would be an ideal first round.  I think Arizona is as far as Josh Rosen will fall.  My concerns with him are less his millennial outlook on life (read: spoiled brat hated by his peers) and more about his injury history.  Two concussions in a year and shoulder surgery.  That’s what’s going to make him fall.

Wait, you mean people will hold you accountable for things you say online? I’ll be right back…

Ok folks, that’s it from me.  Time to go to my war room dive bar and get ready with some game tape chicken wings and Coors Light.  We’re hours away from the biggest (non-sporting) sporting event of the year!  We’ve been so geeked up about the actual draft, we forgot to even mention that it’s in Dallas!  You know Jerrah will spare no expense…at the very least expect a Rhinestone stage and (multiple) Elvis impersonators.

Mock Draft 4.0 (Ginger King)

Round 1 Team Pick Position
1 Cleveland Browns Josh Allen (Wyoming) QB
2 New York Giants Sam Darnold (USC) QB
3 New York Jets Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) QB
4 Cleveland Browns Saquon Barkley (PSU) RB
5 Denver Broncos Bradley Chubb (NC State) DE
6 Indianapolis Colts Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame) OL
7 Tampa Bay Bucs Derwin James (FSU) S
8 Chicago Bears Trumaine Edmunds (VA Tech) LB
9 San Francisco 49ers Harold Landry (Boston College) DE
10 Oakland Raiders Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama) CB
11 Miami Dolphins Josh Rosen (UCLA) QB
12 Buffalo Bills Marcus Davenport (UTSA) DE
13 Washington Redskins Vita Vea (Washington) DT
14 Green Bay Packers Calvin Ridley (Alabama) WR
15 Arizona Cardinals Lamar Jackson (Louisville) QB
16 Baltimore Ravens Mike McGlinchy (Notre Dame) OL
17 Los Angeles Chargers Josh Jackson (Iowa) CB
18 Seattle Seahawks Denzel Ward (OSU) CB
19 Dallas Cowboys Courtland Sutton (SMU) WR
20 Detroit Lions Da’Ron Payne (Alabama) DT
21 Cincinnati Bengals James Daniels (Iowa) OL
22 Buffalo Bills Isaiah Wynn (Georgia) OL
23 New England Patriots Leighton Vander Esch (Boise St.) LB
24 Carolina Panthers Roquan Smith (Georgia) LB
25 Tennessee Titans Billy Price (OSU) OL
26 Atlanta Falcons D.J. Moore (Maryland) WR
27 New Orleans Saints Dallas Goedert (South Dakota St.) TE
28 Pittsburgh Steelers Justin Reid (Stanford) S
29 Jacksonville Jaguars Rashaan Evans (Alabama) LB
30 Minnesota Vikings Kolton Miller (UCLA) OL
31 New England Patriots Christian Kirk (Texas A&M) WR
32 Philadelphia Eagles Derrius Guice (LSU) RB

Instant Analysis:  Cleveland’s first pick has to be a quarterback, but which one?  Most people have either Darnold or Allen, but now there’s word that Cleveland is seriously considering Baker Mayfield.  They’ve done a really good job of managing the message and controlling the flow of information (don’t worry, they’ll have plenty of time to get it wrong in a couple days).  If Cleveland goes with Allen (or Mayfield – although I’m not buying it) then the Giants will have to take Darnold.  Roid Rage has me sold on Baker to the Jets (I mean, Joe Namath approves), and then I think the Josh Rosen slide begins.

Slide, slide, slippidy slide.

Elsewhere, offensive lineman should dominate the latter half of the first round.  Everyone’s talking quarterbacks (ladies love the long ball) but the hog mollies could be the real story in Round 1.  We’re continuing to monitor all draft news (tough job, I know) so check back later for more mock drafts, as well as our award-winning Draft Day Drinking Game (2018 ed.).

Mock Draft 3.0 (Roid Rage)

Round 1 Team Pick Position
1 Cleveland Browns Sam Darnold (USC) QB
2 New York Giants Bradley Chubb (NC State) DE
3 New York Jets Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) QB
4 Cleveland Browns Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame) OL
5 Denver Broncos Saquon Barkley (PSU) RB
6 Indianapolis Colts Josh Rosen (UCLA) QB
7 Tampa Bay Bucs Denzel Ward (OSU) CB
8 Chicago Bears Roquan Smith (Georgia) LB
9 San Francisco 49ers Derwin James (FSU) S
10 Oakland Raiders Mike McGlinchey (Notre Dame) OL
11 Miami Dolphins Tremaine Edmunds (VA Tech) LB
12 Buffalo Bills Harold Landry (BC) LB
13 Washington Redskins Josh Allen (Wyoming) QB
14 Green Bay Packers Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama) CB
15 Arizona Cardinals Lamar Jackson (Louisville) QB
16 Baltimore Ravens Da’Ron Payne (Alabama) DL
17 Los Angeles Chargers Vita Vea (Washington) DT
18 Seattle Seahawks James Daniels (Iowa) OL
19 Dallas Cowboys DJ Moore (Maryland) WR
20 Detroit Lions Leighton Vander Esch (Boise St) LB
21 Cincinnati Bengals Isaiah Wynn (Georgia) OL
22 Buffalo Bills Josh Jackson (Iowa) CB
23 New England Patriots Marcus Davenport (Texas-SA) DE
24 Carolina Panthers Calvin Ridley (Alabama) WR
25 Tennessee Titans Jaire Alexander (Louisville) CB
26 Atlanta Falcons Kolton Miller (UCLA) OL
27 New Orleans Saints Courtland Sutton (SMU) WR
28 Pittsburgh Steelers Rashaan Evans (Alabama) LB
29 Jacksonville Jaguars Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma St) QB
30 Minnesota Vikings Taven Bryan (Florida) DL
31 New England Patriots Connor Williams (Texas) OL
32 Philadelphia Eagles Derrius Guice (LSU) RB

LVE

Instant Analysis:  Looks like it’s down to Darnold or Mayfield for the Browns.  I’m sticking to my guns with Darnold.  It appears the Giants aren’t budging from No. 2.  Can they really trade for a punter and draft a running back second overall in the span of two weeks?  Is this 1998?  I’m giving them Chubb on principle alone.  Mayfield to the Jets seems like a done deal.  Nelson is the best (non-QB) in this draft.  The Broncos would like to move back, but when Barkley falls to them they pounce.  Need meets value.

Should the board fall like this: 2 QB’s + Barkley + Chubb + Nelson, then No. 6 seems like the ideal spot for a team to trade up to land either Rosen or Allen.

1st Round Breakdown:
QB = 6
RB = 2
WR = 3
TE = 0
OL = 6
DL = 5
LB = 5
DB = 5

 

 

 

 

 

Mock Draft 3.0 (Ginger King)

Round 1 Team Pick Position
1 Cleveland Browns Sam Darnold (USC) QB
2 New York Giants Bradley Chubb (NC State) DE
3 New York Jets Josh Rosen (UCLA) QB
4 Cleveland Browns Mike McGlinchy (Notre Dame) OL
5 Denver Broncos Saquon Barkley (PSU) RB
6 Indianapolis Colts Josh Allen (Wyoming) QB
7 Tampa Bay Bucs Derwin James (FSU) S
8 Chicago Bears Trumaine Edmunds (VA Tech) LB
9 San Francisco 49ers Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame) OL
10 Oakland Raiders Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama) CB
11 Miami Dolphins Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) QB
12 Buffalo Bills Calvin Ridley (Alabama) WR
13 Washington Redskins Roquan Smith (Georgia) LB
14 Green Bay Packers Christian Kirk (Texas A&M) WR
15 Arizona Cardinals Denzel Ward (OSU) CB
16 Baltimore Ravens Rashaan Evans (Alabama) LB
17 Los Angeles Chargers Josh Jackson (Iowa) CB
18 Seattle Seahawks Vita Vea (Washington) DT
19 Dallas Cowboys Courtland Sutton (SMU) WR
20 Detroit Lions Marcus Davenport (UTSA) DE
21 Cincinnati Bengals Kolton Miller (UCLA) OL
22 Buffalo Bills Isaiah Wynn (Georgia) OL
23 New England Patriots Leighton Vander Esch (Boise St.) LB
24 Carolina Panthers Harold Landry (Boston College) LB
25 Tennessee Titans Da’Ron Payne (Alabama) DT
26 Atlanta Falcons D.J. Moore (Maryland) WR
27 New Orleans Saints Lamar Jackson (Louisville) QB
28 Pittsburgh Steelers Justin Reid (Stanford) S
29 Jacksonville Jaguars Jaire Alexander (Louisville) CB
30 Minnesota Vikings Connor Williams (Texas) OL
31 New England Patriots Mason Rudolph (Ok St.) QB
32 Philadelphia Eagles Mike Hughes (UCF) CB

Instant Analysis:  We’ve opened the kimono (I know, it’s huge) and give you our full first round mock.  6 Quarterbacks in the First Round?!?!  That sounds crazy, but not impossible.  With the fifth-year team option for first round picks, both Lamar Jackson and Mason Rudolph stand a chance to sneak into the first round.  The more I think about it, the more Lamar Jackson to the Saints makes a ton of sense.  That offense fits his skill set, and there’s no expectation to come in right away.  He can sit back and learn from one of the best in Drew Brees.

Yes, he’s a quarterback.

Mike McGlinchey takes a huge jump up to Cleveland at 4.  Yes, Saquon Barkley is still there, but Cleveland just lost Joe Thomas and they need a left tackle to protect their newest franchise quarterback.  It’s tough to predict trades, but Cleveland would be in a great spot to trade to someone like Buffalo, and then grab McGlinchey at 12.  Speaking of franchise quarterbacks, the Colts surprise everyone and take Josh Allen.  Sure, the Colts have Andrew Luck, but here’s the problem:  He can’t throw a football.  That’s generally a problem if you’re a quarterback.  Sure, maybe he’ll be fine…or maybe he’ll put you through quarterback hell (again).  Drafting Josh Allen is a win-win, and a necessary insurance policy for the Colts.  If Luck returns to form, the Colts can trade Allen for a bevy of picks and/or players…and if, you know, Luck still can’t throw a football, then the Colts just drafted their next franchise quarterback.

Elsewhere, Dallas will now be looking for a receiver to replace Dez…and they can stay right in their backyard and get Courtland Sutton.

Dez who?

If Buffalo stays put, I like them to go offense with both picks.  Calvin Ridley would be hard to pass up at 12, and they need to strengthen their offense line with both Richie Incognito and Eric Wood not returning (FWIW, I’m not entirely convinced Richie’s retiring…this reeks of contract negotiation strategy).  Regardless, offensive line is still an area of need, and they’ll have plenty of options at 22 for an interior lineman.  Also, can we get a change.org petition going to get Incognito a broadcasting job?  Now that’ll boost ratings!

Are you ready for some football, motherfuckers!

Mock Draft 2.0 (Roid Rage)

Round 1 Team Pick Position
1 Cleveland Browns Sam Darnold (USC) QB
2 New York Giants Bradley Chubb (NC State) DE
3 New York Jets Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) QB
4 Cleveland Browns Denzel Ward (OSU) CB
5 Denver Broncos Mike McGlinchey (Notre Dame) OL
6 Indianapolis Colts Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame) OL
7 Tampa Bay Bucs Saquon Barkley (PSU) RB
8 Chicago Bears Josh Rosen (UCLA) QB
9 San Francisco 49ers Courtland Sutton (SMU) WR
10 Oakland Raiders Roquan Smith (Georgia) LB
11 Miami Dolphins Vita Vea (Washington) DT
12 Buffalo Bills Maurice Hurst (Michigan) DL
13 Washington Redskins Josh Allen (Wyoming) QB
14 Green Bay Packers Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama) CB
15 Arizona Cardinals Tremaine Edmunds (VA Tech) LB
16 Baltimore Ravens Harold Landry (BC) LB
17 Los Angeles Chargers Derwin James (FSU) S
18 Seattle Seahawks Josh Jackson (Iowa) CB
19 Dallas Cowboys Calvin Ridley (Alabama) WR
20 Detroit Lions Marcus Davenport (Texas-SA) DE
21 Cincinnati Bengals Isaiah Wynn (Georgia) OL
22 Buffalo Bills Mike Hughes (Central Florida) CB
23 New England Patriots Leighton Vander Esch (Boise St) LB
24 Carolina Panthers DJ Moore (Maryland) WR
25 Tennessee Titans Josh Sweat (FSU) DE
26 Atlanta Falcons Kolton Miller (UCLA) OL
27 New Orleans Saints Lamar Jackson (Louisville) QB
28 Pittsburgh Steelers Rashaan Evans (Alabama) LB
29 Jacksonville Jaguars Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma St) QB
30 Minnesota Vikings Taven Bryan (Florida) DL
31 New England Patriots Connor Williams (Texas) OL
32 Philadelphia Eagles Mike Gesicki (PSU) TE
Instant Analysis:  Darnold still holds down the top spot, although it is getting harder and harder to ignore the Josh Allen-to-the-Browns chatter.  I already laid out the argument why the Giants should draft their next franchise quarterback here, but for this mock I’m going to give them the only other player they should consider at 2: DE Bradley Chubb.  Gettleman is old school; he’ll love the positional value of getting a pass rusher with a premium draft pick.  I think the Jets are smitten with Baker Mayfield, but really after the Christian Heckenburg disaster they’ll settle for any one of the top 4 QBs.  Cleveland adds the best corner in the draft (an area of desperate need for this team).  McGlinchey is the first real surprise (but not the last) of this mock.  Denver tried to upgrade their O-line with a nixed trade with the Dolphins for Ja’Wuan James.  Gil Brandt thinks the Notre Dame prospect is going in the Top 10, so why not to Denver?  Indy will be tempted to trade down, but when a blue-chip prospect like Nelson falls in their lap they should sprint to the podium.  Same goes for the Bucs with Barkley.  I’m not exactly projecting trades in this mock per se, but the way the board has fallen so far, the Bears are in the catbird seat to trade down (and still have a chance at landing the prospect they are eyeing).  This would be seen as a big win for Ryan Pace, whom still has a black eye after the drubbing he took for jumping one spot last year for Trubisky.

I’ll probably be dead-wrong about Sutton (my highest rated WR this year), but I totally expect John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan to invest heavily on the offensive side of the ball this draft.  Jimmy G about to get some new weapons!  Due to the QB-heavy nature of this draft, some teams that are patience and sit tight are going to have studs fall into their laps.  Smith (Georgia) and Vea (Washington) fit that description well.  Inevitably, a couple of these QBs will tumble come draft day; in this mock that is Josh Alllen and Lamar Jackson.  Washington could trade out, or take one of the quarterbacks.  Afterall, everywhere Alex Smith ends up the team immediately drafts his replacement.

Defense dominates the bottom half of this mock.  The smart play at the bottom third of the first round is to grab a QB and lock up that 5th year option.  That’s exactly what I have the Saints and Jags doing by taking Jackson and Rudolph at 27 and 29, respectfully.