Mock Draft 2.0 (Roid Rage)

We are officially single digit days until the draft! I lost count with how many variations I mocked with Mock Draft Simulator, but I really liked how this 2.0 version is shaping up. I’m close to locking in the top-10 and the second half of the first round is coming into more clarity….

The only change from my first mock in the top-8 is the Lions grabbing Surtain in lieu of Parsons. Part of me feels like Dan Campbell is going to pound the table to draft only linemen and linebackers, but grabbing the last blue-chip prospect on the board is the smart play. I’m not sure why the Dolphins were so eager to jump back into the top-10 pre-draft, but there must be someone they’ve got their eye on and Chase is a bonafide WR1.

I can’t get off Big Blue adding Waddle to that offense. Golladay, Shepard, Engram, Waddle and Barkley. Danny Dimes or bust! Feels like Parsons could slip a bit due to being a scumbag off the field, but likely gets scooped up by one of the teams picking 14-16. This is also the range I have Mac Jones (he made it!) and Devonta Smith slipping too. Dude, Devonta can be both tough as nails and tiny. This ain’t the SEC folks, you want to spend a premium pick to bet that a 170-lbs WR holds up in the NFL?! Be my guest.

The Raiders and Redskins (sue me) both desperately need linebackers; Koramoah and Collins are ballers. These two LBs push for DROY in my book. I’m off the Bears taking a WR, the need at CB is greater and Newsome has the makings of a great boundary corner. The Colts go back to the Notre Dame well of offensive linemen as it worked out for them last time.

Barmore and the Jags makes too much sense. Someone is going to medically clear Farley, and if they are patient and let him heal they’ll have a hell of a corner on their hands. The Ravens, Saints and Packers all inject some much needed life into their receiving corps. The Bills have an edge rusher fall into their lap (actually have their pick between Ojulari and Rousseau. The Georgia Bulldog is a bit more polished). The Chiefs draft board consists of only Offensive Tackles.

Mock Draft 2.0 (Ginger King)

A new week. A new mock. We’re under two weeks away from the show. A lot of changes to the big board, as teams are coming back from pro-day visits and starting their pre-war room negotiations. Let’s get right to the action, once again, using the NFL Mock Draft Database Simulator. Buckle up!

Again, no changes to 1-3. I’m a believer the Niners are going to draft Mac Jones. That’s the biggest gamble in the draft, especially after what San Fran gave up to move up to #3. I also think the Falcons are not going do draft a quarterback for a couple of reasons. One, they just restructured Matt Ryan’s contract last month…spreading out $21m in guaranteed money over the next 3 years. He’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Two, he’s still playing at a high level. He threw for over 4,500 yards and 26 tds last season, with a qb rating of 93.3. The Falcons would love to trade back, and target a cornerback or offensive lineman, but if not, there’s no harm in drafting Patrick Surtain II, the best corner in the draft. Elsewhere, Dan Campbell is looking to rip kneecaps off people. Micah Parsons is his guy.

Receivers and Edge rushers are going to dominate the middle half of the first round. Minnesota needs both, but they should have their pick of Edge rushers, and Kwity Paye edges out (pun intended) the rest. There would be some Belichick magic if Fields is around at 15, and I think it can happen. Fields is going to suffer (rightly or wrongly) from the stigma that OSU quarterbacks have not succeeded at the pro level. Not surprisingly, he’s gone on the offensive to explain how he’s different than his predecessors. His floor should be the Pats at 15, ironically the same spot Haskins was selected in 2019.

Rounding out the first round, I’m trying to explain to Bills Mafia that if Travis Etienne is on the board, he should be the pick. You heard it hear first: Travis Etienne is Dalvin Cook 2.0. However, the Bills need to get younger on the defensive side, as both Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison are on the wrong side of 30. Elsewhere, there are a few teams that I am locked into with their first round pick, and Kansas City is one of them. This pick has to be offensive line, particularly at tackle, as both starting tackle from last year (Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz) are gone.

Mock Draft 1.0 (Roid Rage)

Late to the game?! More like now the party can start! Question: How are all your pre-free agency mock drafts looking now? Answer: Hot garbage. Ginger King already covered why we hold back the urge to post mocks until after the first few waves of free agency. Not only that, scouting is more of a bitch than ever this year…no combine, skewed pro day results…thanks COVID! Anyways, after you’ve taken a peak at the wreckage below make sure to check out NFLMockDraftDatabase to craft your own mock. Onward….

I just can’t see 5 QB’s going in the Top 10 this year, somebody inevitably takes the Aaron Rodgers – Lamar Jackson tumble and my money is overwhelmingly unspectacular Mac Jones (and spoiler alert he isn’t even in the first round of my mock! That kind of feels like a mistake, as he’ll probably get scooped up later in the first, but I’m not projecting trades here).

The one reason I keep coming back to Justin Fields to the Niners: he’s really fucking good. Like, the Jets should take him at #2 good. Kyle Pitts is a mismatch nightmare and in play anywhere from 4-10. The Dolphins are quietly building a powerhouse (I just threw up a bit in my mouth), but it’s all for naught if Tua busts.

Feels like the Raiders backed themselves into a corner and have to rebuild the OL in this draft. Two of my personal favorite fits are Bateman to the Bears and Cosmi to the Colts. Nice alliterations too! Washington not selecting a team name is such a Dan Synder move; self-entitled whinny bitch!

A worse-case scenario for the Bills, as the top Edge rushers get snatched up before their pick. Dickerson is solid C/G depth and the not too distant replacement for Mitch Morse.

And with that Mock 1.0 is in the books! Check back often as the Machine is just getting started!

Mock Draft 1.0 (Ginger King)

It’s that time of year! The Machine is vaccinated and ready to mock. Where have we been, you ask? You’ve already looked at several mock drafts. Kiper’s on his 4th??? As a refresher, we’ll start with our usual reminder:

We know…there’s nothing sexier than looking at mock drafts. However, like a good Catholic, you need to resist temptation and wait until marriage. In this case, marriage is free agency. The Draft is shaped by free agency…and also trades, as we’ve seen several trades already, with teams moving into the Top 10 (Niners), moving out of the Top 10 (Eagles), and moving out of and then back into the Top 10 (Miami). With that said, here’s our first mock…check back often, as we’ll start to ramp thing up as we get closer to the big day.

Also, this year we hooked up with the NFL Mock Draft Simulator (a great way to spend an afternoon). Check them out https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/

Now, on to the show.

The Top 2, and probably 3, are locked in. Atlanta’s a tough one to read…if QBs go 1, 2, and, 3, they could get an offer they can’t refuse from a real QB needy team (I see you Denver). Or they could take a stud WR like Ja’Marr Chase and give it another go with Matt Ryan. Smart money would be to draft Fields (we have him ranked ahead of Mac Jones) and let him learn from Matt Ryan. Elsewhere, Carolina, who just acquired Sam Darnold (many “expert” pre-free agency mocks had them locked on drafting a QB – see embedded tweet above) give him something he never had in New York, a true left tackle in Rashawn Slater.

The Giants, thanks to free agency, can go in a number of directions. They need to build up their offensive line, and would love it if Rashawn Slater were available. If not, if Kyle Pitts is on the board, he should be the pick. He would help with blocking, and also give Daniel Jones another weapon. Philly trades down and still ends up with Jaylen Waddle. Miami should have their pick of edge rushers and 18, and we love the upside Kwity Paye offers.

Heading to the end of the first round, this draft has a ton of depth at receiver. We have 7 (8 if you include Pitts) in the first round, but that number could easily be 9 or 10. Maybe we’re partial to Elis from Ole Miss…but we love Elijah Moore. Seriously, check out some tape. He will provide instant fire power to the (perpetually inept) Jets offense. Also, the Jags will want to surround Trevor with instant playmakers, and Kadarius Toney will give them a nice 1-2 punch.

Mock Draft 3.0 (Final – Ginger King)

Let’s get it on!

We’re finally here! Enjoy the Draft! Over/Under until we experience technical difficulties? 4.5 (bet the under).

What could go wrong????

Mock Draft 3.0 (Final) – Roid Rage

We made it! Draft Day is here and this is my final wildass educated guess to make sense of it all…..

Round 1 TeamPick
1 Cincinnati Bengals Joe Burrow (LSU) QB
2 Washington Redskins Chase Young (OSU) DE
3 Detroit Lions Derrick Brown (Auburn) DL
4 New York Giants Jedrick Wills (Alabama) OL
5 Miami Dolphins Justin Herbert (Oregon) QB
6 Los Angeles Chargers Jeff Okudah (OSU) CB
7 Carolina Panthers CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma) WR
8 Arizona Cardinals Andrew Thomas (Georgia) OL
9 Jacksonville Jaguars Tua Tagovailoa
(Alabama)
QB
10 Cleveland Browns Isaiah Simmons (Clemson) LB
11 New York Jets Tristan Wirfs (Iowa) OL
12 Las Vegas Raiders Henry Ruggs III (Alabama) WR
13 San Francisco 49ers K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU) LB
14 Tampa Bay Bucs Mekhi Becton (Louisville) OL
15 Denver Broncos Jerry Jeudy (Alabama) WR
16 Atlanta Falcons Javon Kinlaw
(South Carolina)
DL
17 Dallas Cowboys Xavier McKinney
(Alabama)
S
18 Miami Dolphins Joshua Jones (Houston) OL
19 Las Vegas Raiders C.J. Henderson (Florida) CB
20 Jacksonville Jaguars Ross Blacklock (TCU) DL
21 Philadelphia Eagles Justin Jefferson (LSU) WR
22 Minnesota Vikings Jaylon Johnson (Utah) CB
23 New England
Patriots
Patrick Queen (LSU) LB
24 New Orleans Saints Jeff Gladney (TCU) CB
25 Minnesota Vikings Denzel Mims (Baylor) WR
26 Miami Dolphins AJ Epensea (Iowa) DL
27 Seattle Seahawks Zack Baun (Wisconsin) LB
28 Baltimore Ravens Cesar Ruiz (Michigan) OL
29 Tennessee Titans Jordan Love (Utah State) QB
30 Green Bay Packers A.J. Terrell (Clemson) CB
31 San Francisco 49ers D’Andre Swift (Georgia) RB
32 Kansas City Chiefs Ezra Cleveland (Boise State) OT

NFL Draft – The Bets

Betting on the Draft will be at record levels tonight and through the weekend, as our sports-deprived country needs something to bet on.  If you’re one of the lucky one that lives in a state that allows mobile betting, congratulations.  Your self-isolation just got way more awesome.  Note:  this is the only time that I ever wished I lived in New Jersey. 

Ready to put that stimulus check to good use?  Here are our top bets for the Draft.  We’re using odds from Draft Kings Sportsbook

Total RBs Drafted in First Round (0.5) (Over -186, Under +150)

I’m all over the “Over” on this one.  This comes down to whether you believe D’Andre Swift will get drafted in the first round.  I think he’s a lock to go in the first round.  As a bonus bet, the line on D’Andre Swift’s draft position is 33.5 (-118).  I would hit the “Under” on that.  He’s going in the first round.

Easy Money

Total OL Drafted in the First Round (6.5) (Over -167, Under +137)

I’m going Under, especially at an attractive +137.  After the Top 4 offensive linemen, there’s a bit of a drop off.  This one will be close. I think 6 will be the magic number, and guys like Cesar Ruiz and Austin Jackson will slip into the second round.

Tua Tagovailoa Draft Pick (5.5) (Over +110, Under -134)

Lots of talk about Tua sliding past 5.  This line may shift throughout the day, but at +110, it’s worth a little scratch to bet the Over.

Slide or Smokescreen?

Jeff Okudah Draft Pick (4.5) (Over -134, Under 4.5)

Over all day.  The list of cornerbacks picked in the Top 4 spots is slim.  Two words: Positional value.  Cornerbacks don’t impact the game to the same extent as other positions (QB, DL, OL).  While Detroit may end up with Okudah, I don’t think it will be at #3.

Total Alabama Players Drafted in First Round (5.5) (Over +110, Under -134)

There are 4 Alabama first round locks (Tua, Will, Jeudy, Ruggs).  The next 2 Crimson Tide to be drafted should be Xavier McKinney and Trevon Diggs.  My money’s on that one of them slips into Round 2.

Exact order of First 3 Wide Receivers. 

Love this.  Getting in to multiple picks ups the degree of difficulty, and also the payout.  Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs is the consensus, and at +300, it’s a good bet.  I also think Justin Jefferson has a shot to be the third receive taken, so I would also throw in a Lamb/Jeudy/Jefferson combo, which pays out at +1100. Also at +1100 is Jeudy/Lamb/Jefferson.

Happy betting!

Buffalo Bills 7-Round Mock Draft

I love the NFL Draft, every bit of it.  The film, the workouts, the combine, the prospects, the backstories, the pro days.  The annual smokescreens and anonymous scouts that have concerns over such and such prospect’s work ethic.  The unethical leaking of medical data, failed drug tests and Wonderlic scores.  I consume mock drafts, and assemble my own while trying to sift through the hype, hyperbole, stats and lies.  I love the draft almost as much as my Buffalo Bills.  So while it pains me that the Bills don’t have a first round pick, I’m more than happy and stoked with adding Stephan Diggs into the fold.  Was the trade worth it?  Hell yeah.  The additional picks the Bills threw in only amount to enough draft capital to move up 4 to 5 spots in the first round.  That would have got them to No. 17-18.  The top three wideouts (Jeudy, Ruggs and Lamb) are all likely to be gone….(they were in mine and GK’s latest mocks).  Plus, while those guys (and others in the draft) may be great, Diggs IS great.  There’s no praying and hoping.  The dude is a legit BEAST.

But alas, I can’t let the mocking season go by without making a few fake selections for the hometown team.  So here is my 7-round mock (courtesy of the Draft Networks Draft Simulator).  I selected for the Bills (no trades) and the sim (TDNs predictive board) picked the rest.  To the picks….

#54 Trevon Diggs, CB Alabama

Ya Digg?  The Bills don’t go on the clock until late Friday evening.  As Tom Petty (RIP) says, The Waiting is the Hardest Part.  But there are plenty of prospect to choose from, and I ranked them (for the Bills) in this order:  Ross Blacklock (DT, TCU), Kyle Dugger (S, Lenior-Rhyne), Tee Higgins (WR, Clemson), Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR, Colorado), Jalen Reagor (WR, TCU), Curtis Weaver (DE, Boise State).

The pairing of Blacklock and Ed Oliver is tempting to say the least.  Dugger could fill the role of “big nickel” that the Bills have been trying to develop since Sean McDermott’s arrival.  But in the end, it was too hard to add a productive CB that should develop alongside Tre White for years to come.  The secondary was a strength that just got stronger.   Who’s ready for an all Diggs training camp?!

#86 Bryan Edwards, WR South Carolina

The debate for this selection was between Edwards and Darrell Taylor (EDGE, Tennessee).  The Bills don’t have many (any?) long term options at defensive end.  Getting some pressure of the edge would take this defense to another level….and pass rushers are hard to find beyond this point in the draft.  But this season, and this team will be defined by Josh Allen.  Edwards gives the Bills something they don’t have much of at receiver: size (6’3”, 215 lbs.) and physicality.  The Bills have the luxury of developing and bringing him along slowly while at the same time having a physical weapon to deploy in the redzone.  Yes please!

#128 Kenny Willekes, DE Michigan State

I just said it’s hard to find push rushers later in the draft, so when Kenny Willekes was available in the 4-round I pounced.  Probably a better run defender (edge-setter) than pure pass-rusher, but that should remind Bills fans of Shaq Lawson.  Similar production at a fraction of the cost = smart team-building.

#167 Geno Stone, S Iowa

I passed up Kyle Dugger in the 2nd round, so take Stone here as a developmental safety/big-nickel defender.  At 5’10”, 210 lbs. he lacks the length the Bills covet in their DBs, but he is a excellent zone defender who can contribute on special teams.

#188 Patrick Taylor Jr., RB Memphis

I’m not convinced the Bills are settled with their backfield; seems like they’ll add someone to compliment Singletary.  Not thrilled with Taylor Jr. as a prospect, but he is a load at 6’3”, 227 lbs. and should be able to carve out a short yardage role.

#207 Brandon Mann, P Texas A&M

Dude, I can’t take another year of Corey Bojorquez….

#239 Kendall Coleman, EDGE Syracuse

Taking a chance on the SU product and his relentless motor.  Also considered another dart throw at WR or OT.

Bills Mafia, we breaking tables or what?!

Mock Draft – Roid Rage 2.0

This is not a drill, we’re 5 days out from real virtual NFL Draft 2020! These GMs get to deal with all the work-from-home pleasantry’s the rest of us have put up with: children bouncing of the walls, pets annoyed that you’re ruining their nap schedule, endless emails and calls from co-workers whom can’t figure out their own shit, amazon delivery trucks driving up and down the street and your spouse….just doing spouse things (what, Mrs. Rage reads this shit too!)….

And like the rest of us, by 8 PM on a Thursday, I hope they don’t do their best work sober….

I’m still going with Simmons to the Lions at 3. I think they’d love to slide down a few slots, still nab a blue-chip prospect and pick up a few extra draft picks, but won’t find a willing dance partner. Simmons is the ultimate “position-less” defender that can be deployed all over the field in any given situation. A true difference-maker, and how many of those does Detroit have?

There are very few scenarios where I don’t see the Giants and Cardinals taking and OT. Both Wills and Wirfs are day-one starters (and upgrades) for both teams, and help ensure the protection, growth and development of second-year QBs. I do like the fit of Derrick Brown for the Cardinals, but the Panthers snipe him in this mock.

Jalen Ramsey’s (much cheaper) replacement falls right into the Jaguar’s lap as they happily end Okudah’s mini-slide. I fully anticipate Ruggs, Lamb and Jeudy to be gone in the first half of the first round. I think Jeudy is the best of the bunch, but can see the Jets getting intoxicated with Ruggs’ speed; the Raiders going for the we-just-moved-to-Vegas-and-want-to-put-on-a-show type of player in Lamb. A second mock, a second OT for the Tompa Bay Bucs. Barf.

You could flip-flop Kinlaw and Chaisson, as both of those players make a ton for sense for either the Falcons or Cowboys. Josh Jones makes it five tackles in the first 18 picks. Even after being the most active team in free agency, the Dolphins have no shortage of holes to fill and none more pressing than OL. After next weekend they could have three new offensive linemen, all of which will probably start Week 1. This pairing of players to team, from 19 – 22 is my favorite. The Raiders need another corner…Queen gives the Jags a presence up the middle…Carson Wentz will be doing back flips and shots of grape juice to celebrate getting a WR…and the Vikings love drafting DBs. Jordan Love is the hardest player to peg. Is there a team willing to go up to into the first half of the draft to grab him? Would the Patriots and Saints pass on him at 23 and 24, respectively? I can’t see it happening. This feels like his floor.

These last 8 picks are fluid. I’ve only got 3 of the same players in this grouping compared to Ginger King’s Mock Draft 2.0 (although we both are calling our shot with Kenneth Murray to the Ravens). Since I have the Vikings grabbing a DB at 22, I give them a WR to fill the void left by Stefan Diggs. The Dolphins continue to remake their offense, and take a play-maker in Swift whom can take the pressure off Tua. Seattle is going to take the athletic-freak of their liking, I give them the uber-talented Jeremy Chinn but who knows, they are the hardest team to figure out. I’m lower on Kristian Fulton than most, but the patient teams in the bottom quarter of the draft can pounce one guys that slip a bit and get some great value.