We’re finally here! Enjoy the Draft! Over/Under until we experience technical difficulties? 4.5 (bet the under).
We made it! Draft Day is here and this is my final
wildass educated guess to make sense of it all…..
|1||Cincinnati Bengals||Joe Burrow (LSU)||QB|
|2||Washington Redskins||Chase Young (OSU)||DE|
|3||Detroit Lions||Derrick Brown (Auburn)||DL|
|4||New York Giants||Jedrick Wills (Alabama)||OL|
|5||Miami Dolphins||Justin Herbert (Oregon)||QB|
|6||Los Angeles Chargers||Jeff Okudah (OSU)||CB|
|7||Carolina Panthers||CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma)||WR|
|8||Arizona Cardinals||Andrew Thomas (Georgia)||OL|
|9||Jacksonville Jaguars|| Tua Tagovailoa |
|10||Cleveland Browns||Isaiah Simmons (Clemson)||LB|
|11||New York Jets||Tristan Wirfs (Iowa)||OL|
|12||Las Vegas Raiders||Henry Ruggs III (Alabama)||WR|
|13||San Francisco 49ers||K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU)||LB|
|14||Tampa Bay Bucs||Mekhi Becton (Louisville)||OL|
|15||Denver Broncos||Jerry Jeudy (Alabama)||WR|
|16||Atlanta Falcons|| Javon Kinlaw |
|17||Dallas Cowboys|| Xavier McKinney |
|18||Miami Dolphins||Joshua Jones (Houston)||OL|
|19||Las Vegas Raiders||C.J. Henderson (Florida)||CB|
|20||Jacksonville Jaguars||Ross Blacklock (TCU)||DL|
|21||Philadelphia Eagles||Justin Jefferson (LSU)||WR|
|22||Minnesota Vikings||Jaylon Johnson (Utah)||CB|
|23||New England |
|Patrick Queen (LSU)||LB|
|24||New Orleans Saints||Jeff Gladney (TCU)||CB|
|25||Minnesota Vikings||Denzel Mims (Baylor)||WR|
|26||Miami Dolphins||AJ Epensea (Iowa)||DL|
|27||Seattle Seahawks||Zack Baun (Wisconsin)||LB|
|28||Baltimore Ravens||Cesar Ruiz (Michigan)||OL|
|29||Tennessee Titans||Jordan Love (Utah State)||QB|
|30||Green Bay Packers||A.J. Terrell (Clemson)||CB|
|31||San Francisco 49ers||D’Andre Swift (Georgia)||RB|
|32||Kansas City Chiefs||Ezra Cleveland (Boise State)||OT|
Betting on the Draft will be at record levels tonight and through the weekend, as our sports-deprived country needs something to bet on. If you’re one of the lucky one that lives in a state that allows mobile betting, congratulations. Your self-isolation just got way more awesome. Note: this is the only time that I ever wished I lived in New Jersey.
Ready to put that stimulus check to good use? Here are our top bets for the Draft. We’re using odds from Draft Kings Sportsbook.
Total RBs Drafted in First Round (0.5) (Over -186, Under +150)
I’m all over the “Over” on this one. This comes down to whether you believe D’Andre Swift will get drafted in the first round. I think he’s a lock to go in the first round. As a bonus bet, the line on D’Andre Swift’s draft position is 33.5 (-118). I would hit the “Under” on that. He’s going in the first round.
Total OL Drafted in the First Round (6.5) (Over -167, Under +137)
I’m going Under, especially at an attractive +137. After the Top 4 offensive linemen, there’s a bit of a drop off. This one will be close. I think 6 will be the magic number, and guys like Cesar Ruiz and Austin Jackson will slip into the second round.
Tua Tagovailoa Draft Pick (5.5) (Over +110, Under -134)
Lots of talk about Tua sliding past 5. This line may shift throughout the day, but at +110, it’s worth a little scratch to bet the Over.
Jeff Okudah Draft Pick (4.5) (Over -134, Under 4.5)
Over all day. The list of cornerbacks picked in the Top 4 spots is slim. Two words: Positional value. Cornerbacks don’t impact the game to the same extent as other positions (QB, DL, OL). While Detroit may end up with Okudah, I don’t think it will be at #3.
Total Alabama Players Drafted in First Round (5.5) (Over +110, Under -134)
There are 4 Alabama first round locks (Tua, Will, Jeudy, Ruggs). The next 2 Crimson Tide to be drafted should be Xavier McKinney and Trevon Diggs. My money’s on that one of them slips into Round 2.
Exact order of First 3 Wide Receivers.
Love this. Getting in to multiple picks ups the degree of difficulty, and also the payout. Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs is the consensus, and at +300, it’s a good bet. I also think Justin Jefferson has a shot to be the third receive taken, so I would also throw in a Lamb/Jeudy/Jefferson combo, which pays out at +1100. Also at +1100 is Jeudy/Lamb/Jefferson.
I love the NFL Draft, every bit of it. The film, the workouts, the combine, the prospects, the backstories, the pro days. The annual smokescreens and anonymous scouts that have concerns over such and such prospect’s work ethic. The unethical leaking of medical data, failed drug tests and Wonderlic scores. I consume mock drafts, and assemble my own while trying to sift through the hype, hyperbole, stats and lies. I love the draft almost as much as my Buffalo Bills. So while it pains me that the Bills don’t have a first round pick, I’m more than happy and stoked with adding Stephan Diggs into the fold. Was the trade worth it? Hell yeah. The additional picks the Bills threw in only amount to enough draft capital to move up 4 to 5 spots in the first round. That would have got them to No. 17-18. The top three wideouts (Jeudy, Ruggs and Lamb) are all likely to be gone….(they were in mine and GK’s latest mocks). Plus, while those guys (and others in the draft) may be great, Diggs IS great. There’s no praying and hoping. The dude is a legit BEAST.
But alas, I can’t let the mocking season go by without making a few fake selections for the hometown team. So here is my 7-round mock (courtesy of the Draft Networks Draft Simulator). I selected for the Bills (no trades) and the sim (TDNs predictive board) picked the rest. To the picks….
#54 Trevon Diggs, CB Alabama
Ya Digg? The Bills don’t go on the clock until late Friday evening. As Tom Petty (RIP) says, The Waiting is the Hardest Part. But there are plenty of prospect to choose from, and I ranked them (for the Bills) in this order: Ross Blacklock (DT, TCU), Kyle Dugger (S, Lenior-Rhyne), Tee Higgins (WR, Clemson), Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR, Colorado), Jalen Reagor (WR, TCU), Curtis Weaver (DE, Boise State).
The pairing of Blacklock and Ed Oliver is tempting to say the least. Dugger could fill the role of “big nickel” that the Bills have been trying to develop since Sean McDermott’s arrival. But in the end, it was too hard to add a productive CB that should develop alongside Tre White for years to come. The secondary was a strength that just got stronger. Who’s ready for an all Diggs training camp?!
#86 Bryan Edwards, WR South Carolina
The debate for this selection was between Edwards and Darrell Taylor (EDGE, Tennessee). The Bills don’t have many (any?) long term options at defensive end. Getting some pressure of the edge would take this defense to another level….and pass rushers are hard to find beyond this point in the draft. But this season, and this team will be defined by Josh Allen. Edwards gives the Bills something they don’t have much of at receiver: size (6’3”, 215 lbs.) and physicality. The Bills have the luxury of developing and bringing him along slowly while at the same time having a physical weapon to deploy in the redzone. Yes please!
#128 Kenny Willekes, DE Michigan State
I just said it’s hard to find push rushers later in the draft, so when Kenny Willekes was available in the 4-round I pounced. Probably a better run defender (edge-setter) than pure pass-rusher, but that should remind Bills fans of Shaq Lawson. Similar production at a fraction of the cost = smart team-building.
#167 Geno Stone, S Iowa
I passed up Kyle Dugger in the 2nd round, so take Stone here as a developmental safety/big-nickel defender. At 5’10”, 210 lbs. he lacks the length the Bills covet in their DBs, but he is a excellent zone defender who can contribute on special teams.
#188 Patrick Taylor Jr., RB Memphis
I’m not convinced the Bills are settled with their backfield; seems like they’ll add someone to compliment Singletary. Not thrilled with Taylor Jr. as a prospect, but he is a load at 6’3”, 227 lbs. and should be able to carve out a short yardage role.
#207 Brandon Mann, P Texas A&M
Dude, I can’t take another year of Corey Bojorquez….
#239 Kendall Coleman, EDGE Syracuse
Taking a chance on the SU product and his relentless motor. Also considered another dart throw at WR or OT.
This is not a drill, we’re 5 days out from real virtual NFL Draft 2020! These GMs get to deal with all the work-from-home pleasantry’s the rest of us have put up with: children bouncing of the walls, pets annoyed that you’re ruining their nap schedule, endless emails and calls from co-workers whom can’t figure out their own shit, amazon delivery trucks driving up and down the street and your spouse….just doing spouse things (what, Mrs. Rage reads this shit too!)….
And like the rest of us, by 8 PM on a Thursday, I hope they don’t do their best work sober….
I’m still going with Simmons to the Lions at 3. I think they’d love to slide down a few slots, still nab a blue-chip prospect and pick up a few extra draft picks, but won’t find a willing dance partner. Simmons is the ultimate “position-less” defender that can be deployed all over the field in any given situation. A true difference-maker, and how many of those does Detroit have?
There are very few scenarios where I don’t see the Giants and Cardinals taking and OT. Both Wills and Wirfs are day-one starters (and upgrades) for both teams, and help ensure the protection, growth and development of second-year QBs. I do like the fit of Derrick Brown for the Cardinals, but the Panthers snipe him in this mock.
Jalen Ramsey’s (much cheaper) replacement falls right into the Jaguar’s lap as they happily end Okudah’s mini-slide. I fully anticipate Ruggs, Lamb and Jeudy to be gone in the first half of the first round. I think Jeudy is the best of the bunch, but can see the Jets getting intoxicated with Ruggs’ speed; the Raiders going for the we-just-moved-to-Vegas-and-want-to-put-on-a-show type of player in Lamb. A second mock, a second OT for the Tompa Bay Bucs. Barf.
You could flip-flop Kinlaw and Chaisson, as both of those players make a ton for sense for either the Falcons or Cowboys. Josh Jones makes it five tackles in the first 18 picks. Even after being the most active team in free agency, the Dolphins have no shortage of holes to fill and none more pressing than OL. After next weekend they could have three new offensive linemen, all of which will probably start Week 1. This pairing of players to team, from 19 – 22 is my favorite. The Raiders need another corner…Queen gives the Jags a presence up the middle…Carson Wentz will be doing back flips and shots of grape juice to celebrate getting a WR…and the Vikings love drafting DBs. Jordan Love is the hardest player to peg. Is there a team willing to go up to into the first half of the draft to grab him? Would the Patriots and Saints pass on him at 23 and 24, respectively? I can’t see it happening. This feels like his floor.
These last 8 picks are fluid. I’ve only got 3 of the same players in this grouping compared to Ginger King’s Mock Draft 2.0 (although we both are calling our shot with Kenneth Murray to the Ravens). Since I have the Vikings grabbing a DB at 22, I give them a WR to fill the void left by Stefan Diggs. The Dolphins continue to remake their offense, and take a play-maker in Swift whom can take the pressure off Tua. Seattle is going to take the athletic-freak of their liking, I give them the uber-talented Jeremy Chinn but who knows, they are the hardest team to figure out. I’m lower on Kristian Fulton than most, but the patient teams in the bottom quarter of the draft can pounce one guys that slip a bit and get some great value.
Alright, we’re back at it. Still quarantined, still working from home, and still trying to thread that needle of parent/teacher/caregiver (have you seen my kids?). On the plus side, I can now add “Professional Day Drinker” to my LinkedIn profile.
Anyway, we’re almost one week away from the Draft, you know, the event that not even a worldwide pandemic could postpone. Here’s our updated mock. Note: no trades are shown (yet), however, the first round will be full of them, especially at the top half, as teams will try to leapfrog over
Miami each other to get Tua or Herbert. Obvious trading partners are Detroit and the Giants; both of whom should be whoring themselves out to drop back a few spots and collect additional draft picks.
As recommended by Roid Rage, I used the Mock Draft Simulator from the good people at Draft Networks. If you haven’t yet, get on over there and check it out.
Burrow and Young are locks at 1 and 2, respectively. 3 and 4 are where things start to get interesting. Simmons’ malleability to play anywhere on the defense could be too tempting for the Lions to pass up. The Giants should have their pick of Offensive Lineman…here, Joe Judge will rely on his Alabama connection and trust Nick Saban that Wills is the most pro-ready lineman. The Dolphins would be ecstatic to get Tua without having to trade up.
The run on wide receivers should begin just outside of the Top 10 (and maybe sooner if those OBJ trade rumors are true). Tompa Bay (god, he hasn’t even suited up yet and he’s already annoying) would run to the podium if Becton fell to them at 14.
Book this: Jordan Love will be a first round pick. With the exception of Philly, Minnesota, and Dallas (depending on what happens with Dak), all of the teams from 17-24 could use him, as well as some other teams at the end of the first round, like Green Bay. Philly has to come away with a receiver. Justin Jefferson is a nice consolation prize, if one of the Top 3 receivers don’t slip. The Jags overhaul their defense with a 1-2 punch of Derrick Brown and Grant Delpit, to help stop the bleeding from the loss of Jalen Ramsey and (soon to be) loss of Yannick Ngakoue.
D’Andre Swift has been flying up the boards…and come draft night, I would not be surprised if he ends up going in the middle/late first round. He would fit in perfectly with the Chiefs.
So far I’ve spent this April trying to best my own record for how many Oreo’s I can fit in my mouth (5), rebooted my computer 87,000 times thanks to IT “patches” and have come to the realization that people whom home-school their children are crazier than Joe Exotic!
I need this Draft. We all need this Draft. We need the drama, intrigue and suspense. Couple that with a worldwide pandemic that has GM’s drafting via Zoom, and you’ve got the recipe for an epic shitshow. God I wish Al Davis were around for this! R.I.P. AL. Alas, there are still plenty of GMs that are going to fuck this up….looking at you Gettleman. Over/Under on “my account was hacked” excuses? 2.5?
Onto the mock! I used Draft Networks ridiculously awesome Mock Draft Simulator to put this together…….
Burrow and Young are locked and loaded to go one, two. I don’t buy the rumor of the Skins’ taking Tua. Young is the best player in the draft and will make an impact similar to Joey Bosa (and they’d rather have Lawrence next year!).
Okudah to the Lions makes so much sense that I can’t see the Lions actually going through with it. They don’t necessarily draft the best player, but they seem to have a thing for “break the mold” types (like taking Hockenson over Ed Oliver last year)…. probably to feed Matt Patricia’s mad scientist persona.
That’s five offensive tackles in the first 14 picks. Listen, the Bucs entire draft plan (and team building strategy) changed with the signing of Brady. Their window is THIS year. The defense is talented and they have play-makers at receiver and tight-end. Pick 14 will be and offensive linemen or a RB. Book it.
Rick Spielman has two first round picks….guarantee he drafts at least one DB. And there it is, at Pick 23 Belichick ushers in a new era.
Love this haul for the Dolphins: Herbert, Kinlaw and Jones. Yessir!
Welcome back everyone. How’s the self-isolation going? If it’s anything like ours, you spend your days yelling at your kids and your Boomer parents about the importance of quarantining. No mom, it’s no ok if you just go to your Condo Association Happy Hour “for just a little bit.” Seriously, we should build a wall around Florida.
In all honestly, this whole COVID thing wasn’t really impacting my daily activities or outlook on life, until it started to impact the Draft. Now, shit’s getting real. It’s the age old question: Who blinks first when a worldwide pandemic threatens the greatest sporting event of the year? I’ll tell you who doesn’t: Roger Goodell. There is nothing this man can’t do. Need proof of this man’s greatness? How about the recent CBA vote. What’s Roger’s answer to combating player safety? Two words: More. Football. And the players approved it.
So you just knew what his response was going to be when everyone said the Draft would have to be postponed. No fucking way. The show goes on because RG1 says so. Sure, the public’s not invited, Kiper and McShay have to be 6 feet apart, and the home office is now the war room. But none of that matters. Despite all of the inconveniences that will occur during the 2020 Draft, what the people need is football. Our society is starved for sports. Ginger King’s wife busted him watching Esports (loves me some Evil Geniuses). It’s bad. Real bad. The Commissioner knows this, and that’s why the 2020 Draft will be the most watched draft in history. To use an analogy from a sport everyone has already forgotten, all the man does is hit dingers.
Anyway, we have much to catch up on. Usually, we like to start with just the tip, and give you our Top 10 picks. However, we’re going balls deep (just like this year’s WR and OL class). Here’s my entire first round mock.
|1||Cincinnati Bengals||Joe Burrows (LSU)||QB|
|2||Washington Redskins||Chase Young (OSU)||DE|
|3||Detroit Lions||Jeff Okudah (OSU)||CB|
|4||New York Giants||Tristan Wirfs (Iowa)||OL|
|5||Miami Dolphins||Tua Tagovailoa |
|6||Los Angeles Chargers||Justin Herbert (Oregon)||QB|
|7||Carolina Panthers||Isaiah Simmons (Clemson)||LB|
|8||Arizona Cardinals||Derrick Brown (Auburn)||DL|
|9||Jacksonville Jaguars||Andrew Thomas (Georgia)||OL|
|10||Cleveland Browns||Jedrick Wills (Alabama)||OL|
|11||New York Jets||Ceedee Lamb (Oklahoma)||WR|
|12||Las Vegas Raiders||Jerry Jeudy (Alabama)||WR|
|13||San Francisco 49ers||Javon Kinlaw |
|14||Tampa Bay Bucs||Mekhi Becton (Louisville)||DL|
|15||Denver Broncos||Henry Ruggs III (Alabama)||WR|
|16||Atlanta Falcons||K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU)||LB|
|17||Dallas Cowboys||Trevon Diggs (Alabama)||CB|
|18||Miami Dolphins||Austin Jackson (USC)||OL|
|19||Las Vegas Raiders||Patrick Queen (LSU)||LB|
|20||Jacksonville Jaguars||Xavier McKinney |
|21||Philadelphia Eagles||Justin Jefferson (LSU)||WR|
|22||Minnesota Vikings||Tee Higgins (Clemson)||WR|
|23||New England |
|Yetur Gross-Matos |
|24||New Orleans Saints||Jordan Love (Utah St.)||QB|
|25||Minnesota Vikings||Kristian Fulton (LSU)||CB|
|26||Miami Dolphins||Jonathan Taylor |
|27||Seattle Seahawks||Ross Blacklock (TCU)||DL|
|28||Baltimore Ravens||Joshua Jones (Houston)||OL|
|29||Tennessee Titans||Marlon Davidson |
|30||Green Bay Packers||Kenneth Murray |
|31||San Francisco 49ers||C.J. Henderson (Florida)||CB|
|32||Kansas City Chiefs||Damon Arnett (OSU)||CB|