As the Draft approaches, The Machine smiles with delight.  Each year, the slate is wiped clean, each team is reborn, and the Draft begins the process of building your team into the next NFL powerhouse.  Hell, it’s even a good time to be a Jets fan.  It’s also a great time to test your knowledge of your team, and see how your mock matches up to the “experts”.

One common theme each year is that teams at the top of the Draft need to grab that franchise quarterback.  “New regime, new quarterback” is often thrown around.  But is that really true nowadays?  Is spending a first round pick on a quarterback a must?  Recent history would tell us otherwise.  Let’s look at The Machine’s uber-fancy chart of the last two years of playoffs teams, and where these quarterbacks were drafted.

Over the last two years, having a first round QB gives you a 50% chance of making the playoffs.  That’s it.  Not really overwhelming odds, about the same odds The Machine has to date Kate Upton.  Obviously, much more goes into making the playoffs than having a first round quarterback…but that’s exactly our point.

Yeah, a 50% chance seems right.

Football is the ultimate team sport, and teams should be focused on building a balanced team, and valuing team positions (OL, DL, Secondary) over individual skill positions (QB, RB, WR).  Look no further than the reigning Super Bowl Champions, the Seattle Seahawks.  Seattle’s rise to Super Bowl Champion did not come on the arm of a first round QB or the hands of a legit #1 WR.  Instead, Seattle had a dominant offensive line that made Marshawn Lynch (a Buffalo Bills reject) a Top 5 RB, and gave Russell Wilson the time to throw to a collection of no name WRs.  And we all know about their punishing defense.

Also, of the QBs that were taken in the first round, the majority of them were taken #1 overall (Peyton, Cam, Andrew Luck).  These players were known to be can’t miss, franchise QBs.

So what does that tell us?  Unless there’s a can’t miss talent at QB, you’re better off addressing other needs, and waiting to draft a QB later.

Is anyone falling faster than Teddy?

Face of the franchise? Another good decision by Johnny Football.

Now let’s apply that concept to this years’ Draft.  There are a lot of QB needy teams, including Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota, all of whom have Top 10 picks in the Draft.  Here’s the list of the Top QBs:  Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater.  None of these guys have the same pedigree or ranking as Peyton, Cam, or Andrew Luck, or even RGIII or Matt Ryan.  Simply put:  while some (or all) may turn into great QBs, you certainly can’t call any of them a can’t miss prospect.

What that has resulted in is a couple of things.  One, teams at the top of the first round are thinking twice about drafting a QB in the first.  Teddy Bridgewater, the consensus #1 pick three months ago, is now falling out of the first round…Johnny Football is also dropping.  Two, teams are looking at the next group of Quarterbacks in the class.

Jimmy’s leading the Day 2 charge of QBs.

Indeed, the focus has been shifted to the second and third rounds, and the buzz is now over guys like Derek Carr, Jimmy Garropolo, Tom Savage, Zack Mettenberger, and AJ McCarron.  People are looking for the next Russell Wilson, or Colin Kaepernick.  Logan Thomas and Tajh Boyd are also getting some attention.

Could this be the best QB in the Draft?

Point is:  you don’t need a first round QB to have success in the NFL.  Don’t buy into the myth that you “need” to draft one in the first round.  The best QB in the Draft could be sitting there on Day 2.

Alright, we’re 3 weeks from the Draft, and things are really starting to change.  The question to answer now:  how far will Teddy Bridgewater fall?  Not if…but how far.  That’s right, the consensus #1 overall pick for the past 6 months is now sliding out of the Top 10, and possibly the first round.  Seriously, how do you have a bad pro day?  Anyway, let’s get to it.

No changes for the top 2 picks, as it looks like Jadaveon is a lock to go #1.  Unless St. Louis trades out of the #2 pick (which I’d peg at 50/50) Sammy Watkins looks like their pick…not bad, considering Sammy’s drawing comparisons as a fast Larry Fitzgerald.  Big change comes at #3, as the QB-needy Jaguars will shun a QB and go with Kahlil Mack.  Why?  The Jags are more than just a QB-needy team…they are a [insert position]-needy team.  Plus, is there a QB worth the #3 pick in this draft?  The Jags have reached for a QB before (see Gabbert, Blaine) and you don’t want to reach at 3.  Likewise, the QB-needed Browns will also forgo a QB.  I think the Browns believe in Brian Hoyer just enough to give him a chance.  Da Raiders picking Robinson is a really smart pick, which is probably why they won’t do it.

Alright, the first QB goes off the Board at #8, as the Vikings take UCF stud Blake Bortles.  Blake seems to have risen to the top of the QB class.  He’s got prototypical size, and no baggage.  He’s the safe pick.  Mathews is thought of in many circles as the best OL in the Draft, and would come at a steal for Tampa at 7.  The Bills, missing out on Robinson and Mathews, go to their next need, and provide EJ Manual with a legit receiving threat in Eric Ebron (think Vernon Davis minus the diva).  Roid Rage has a mild hard-on just thinking about Manual to Ebron.

And the Johnny Football/Teddy Bridgwater fall begins.  Note:  if one (or both) get past Tennessee at 11, it’s going to be a long wait).  The G-Men stick with Lewan at 12, the question is whether he’ll be there (please be there).  I think St. Louis will go Offense/Offense with their first round picks, giving Sam Bradford no excuse (until his inevitable Week 6 separated shoulder).  Defense should dominate the middle round of this draft.  Chicago would love it if Donald were still around, but if not, hybrid-stud Anthony Barr should fit perfectly in their defense.

Finally, Johnny Football finds a home in Arizona…but Teddy still sweats it out in the green room.  Justin Gilbert provides great value for Miami at #19.  The run on WR also begins…Philly would be wise to replace Desean Jackson with Marqise Lee (but wait, he’s from SoCal, aren’t they all gang bangerz???).

Wait…Teddy falls out of the first round???  It’s looking that way.  Roid Rage has him at #5…but he’s a whore for QBs, and also thinks Derek Carr could find his into the first round.  There’s a shot of beamer on that one, son!  New England jumps out at me as a team that would love to trade out of the first round and let someone jump back in to the first and maybe grab Teddy.  There’s a lot of depth to this draft, and many big names still left.

We are a mere 3 weeks away from the eve of the 79th Annual NFL Players Selection Meeting (that’s the official name….Wikipedia bitches!)  This draft is going to have quite a few fireworks, particularly in the Top Ten.  There are a few blue chip studs that every team would like to roster (don’t buy the Jadeveon Clowney has never worked a hard day in his life reports one bit).  On the flip side, this draft is extremely deep.  There are terrific prospects to be had in the middle rounds.  There will be some teams that are aggressive and go get “their guy”; while others try their damndest to trade down and stockpile picks (here is looking at you, Hoodie).  Enough chit-chat, on to the picks…..

 Clowney would have been the hands down No. 1 pick in last years draft.  There isn’t a QB prospect worthy enough to pass on this guy.  As I stated above, I’m not buying into these made up negative claims about his work ethic; at the same time I’m not going to enshrine him in Canton before he even plays.

Sammy Watkins is a stud.  He dominated SEC competition at age 18.  If the Rams can’t pull off a trade, he should be the pick.  Picks 2 and 3 are up for grabs in terms of trading up.  In this scenario I have Atlanta trading up to the 3-hole to grab Mack.

Four picks in and I have two pass-rushers and two pass-catchers.  This is where the draft gets really interesting as the Jags, Browns, Raiders, and Vikings are QB-desperate (you could even make an argument for the Bucs as well).  Who starts the QB run?  How highly do teams covet these QBs?  Can they be had later in the first round?  Second round?  In my mock the Raiders get first crack.  I’ll let Teddy’s film speak for itself and try to erase his horrific pro-day from my memory (a few more huffs ought to do it).  Bridgewater gives them a chance.  He’ll have the opportunity to learn (how not to throw pick-6’s) from Matt Schaub.  Again, I have Atlanta and Jacksonville swapping picks in the first, so Bortles is a Jaguar in this scenario.  Sure, Gus Bradley would love to have Clowney or Mack on his defense, but this has got to be the most QB-needy franchise in the league.  Ebron and Donald continue to rise up my mock drafts (I had them at 23 and 25, respectively in Mock 2.0).  Ebron is a big-bodied, athletic mismatch.  It gives the Bucs a second option in the passing game after Vincent Jackson.  Minnesota is a complete wildcard.  I think they’d jump at the chance to draft Bortles and I think Norv Turner probably has a mild hard-on for Carr.  But is 8 overall too high for David’s kid brother?  I think so.  Then again: Matt Cassel, Christian Ponder.  Barf!  Mike Zimmer is a no nonsense, old school, defensive minded coach.  He grabs the disruptive interior force in Donald.  For the record, I think Jake Matthews and Greg Robinson are better prospects than any of the guys drafted last year (and there were 4 OTs drafted in the first 11 picks last year); so for the Bills and Lions to get them at 9 and 10 is great value.

Johnny Football ladies and gentlemen!  Whizz knows as well as anyone that you have to have a QB to win in this league.  Ginger keeps harping on the fact that if the Giants can protect Eli they will basically win the Super Bowl.  Fine.  Enter Taylor Lewan.  St. Louis grabs Watkins and Clinton-Dix.  Their roster is loaded with talent (thank you Dan Synder).  Will there be a QB with more pressure to succeed this season than Sam Bradford?  Chicago and Dallas are both searching for able-bodied defensive linemen; which means Jerry will probably end up draft a Guard.

 There are some serious playmakers available in the second half of the first round.  I love the player-team pairs for this group of picks.

I really think you’ll see Derek Carr go somewhere in this range. I know I keep harping on the depth of this class, but for a good reason, check out these notable missing prospects: Jace Aramo, David Yankey, Brandon Cooks, Ryan Shazier, Jordan Matthews, Stephon Tuitt, Cyrus Kouandjio.

The Man!