As the Draft approaches, The Machine smiles with delight. Each year, the slate is wiped clean, each team is reborn, and the Draft begins the process of building your team into the next NFL powerhouse. Hell, it’s even a good time to be a Jets fan. It’s also a great time to test your knowledge of your team, and see how your mock matches up to the “experts”.
One common theme each year is that teams at the top of the Draft need to grab that franchise quarterback. “New regime, new quarterback” is often thrown around. But is that really true nowadays? Is spending a first round pick on a quarterback a must? Recent history would tell us otherwise. Let’s look at The Machine’s uber-fancy chart of the last two years of playoffs teams, and where these quarterbacks were drafted.
2013 |
||
Team | QB | Round (pick) |
Broncos | Peyton Manning | 1st (1) |
Indy | Andrew Luck | 1st (1) |
Carolina | Can Newton | 1st (1) |
Kansas City | Alex Smith | 1st (1) |
San Diego | Philip Rivers | 1st (4) |
Green Bay | Aaron Rodgers | 1st (24) |
New Orleans | Drew Brees | 2nd (32) |
Cincinnati | Andy Dalton | 2nd (35) |
San Fran | Colin Kaepernick | 2nd (36) |
Philly | Nick Foles | 3rd (88) |
Seahawks | Russell Wilson | 3rd (75) |
Patriots | Tom Brady | 6th (199) |
2012 |
||
Team | QB | Round (pick) |
Broncos | Peyton Manning | 1st (1) |
Indy | Andrew Luck | 1st (1) |
Washington | RGIII | 1st (2) |
Atlanta | Matt Ryan | 1st (3) |
Baltimore | Joe Flacco | 1st (18) |
Green Bay | Aaron Rodgers | 1st (24) |
Cincinnati | Andy Dalton | 2nd (35) |
San Fran | Colin Kaepernick | 2nd (36) |
Seattle | Russell Wilson | 3rd (75) |
Houston | Matt Schaub | 3rd (90) |
Minnesota | Joe Webb | 6th (199) |
Patriots | Tom Brady | 6th (199) |
Over the last two years, having a first round QB gives you a 50% chance of making the playoffs. That’s it. Not really overwhelming odds, about the same odds The Machine has to date Kate Upton. Obviously, much more goes into making the playoffs than having a first round quarterback…but that’s exactly our point.
Football is the ultimate team sport, and teams should be focused on building a balanced team, and valuing team positions (OL, DL, Secondary) over individual skill positions (QB, RB, WR). Look no further than the reigning Super Bowl Champions, the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle’s rise to Super Bowl Champion did not come on the arm of a first round QB or the hands of a legit #1 WR. Instead, Seattle had a dominant offensive line that made Marshawn Lynch (a Buffalo Bills reject) a Top 5 RB, and gave Russell Wilson the time to throw to a collection of no name WRs. And we all know about their punishing defense.
Also, of the QBs that were taken in the first round, the majority of them were taken #1 overall (Peyton, Cam, Andrew Luck). These players were known to be can’t miss, franchise QBs.
So what does that tell us? Unless there’s a can’t miss talent at QB, you’re better off addressing other needs, and waiting to draft a QB later.
Now let’s apply that concept to this years’ Draft. There are a lot of QB needy teams, including Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota, all of whom have Top 10 picks in the Draft. Here’s the list of the Top QBs: Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater. None of these guys have the same pedigree or ranking as Peyton, Cam, or Andrew Luck, or even RGIII or Matt Ryan. Simply put: while some (or all) may turn into great QBs, you certainly can’t call any of them a can’t miss prospect.
What that has resulted in is a couple of things. One, teams at the top of the first round are thinking twice about drafting a QB in the first. Teddy Bridgewater, the consensus #1 pick three months ago, is now falling out of the first round…Johnny Football is also dropping. Two, teams are looking at the next group of Quarterbacks in the class.
Indeed, the focus has been shifted to the second and third rounds, and the buzz is now over guys like Derek Carr, Jimmy Garropolo, Tom Savage, Zack Mettenberger, and AJ McCarron. People are looking for the next Russell Wilson, or Colin Kaepernick. Logan Thomas and Tajh Boyd are also getting some attention.
Point is: you don’t need a first round QB to have success in the NFL. Don’t buy into the myth that you “need” to draft one in the first round. The best QB in the Draft could be sitting there on Day 2.
Pingback: The 2014 ‘What if’ Mock Draft… | Big Red Sports Machine