Mock Draft 4.0 (Ginger King)

One week to go!  Big risers (Christian McCaffrey) and fallers (Reuben Foster) this week as the Draft starts to pan out a little.  This is about the time where teams use some serious misdirection and smokescreens.  If you’re hearing for the first time this week that Team X is in love with Y player, it’s probably not true.  Teams are always playing this game of inflating players, or critiquing players, in the hopes that the real player they want will fall to them.

Also, Roid Rage finally stopped watching April baseball (it doesn’t matter bruh, check back in 5 months) and posted his first mock.  He brought in some heavy hitters (pun intended) and bold moves.  Go check it out.  But first, check out what Ginger King has in store for you.

Round 1 Team Pick Position
1 Cleveland Browns Myles Garrett (Texas A&M) DE
2 San Francisco Solomon Thomas (Stanford) DE
3 Chicago Bears Jamal Adams (LSU) S
4 Jacksonville Jaguars Leonard Fournette (LSU) RB
5 Tennessee Titans O.J. Howard (Alabama) TE
6 NY Jets Malik Hooker (OSU) S
7 Los Angeles Chargers Mike Williams (Clemson) WR
8 Carolina Panthers Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) RB
9 Cincinnati Bengals Jonathon Allen (Alabama) DE
10 Buffalo Bills Mitchell Trubisky (UNC) QB

Hey, it could be worse. You could be in Cleveland.

11 New Orleans Saints Derek Barnett (Tennessee) DE
12 Cleveland Browns Corey Davis (Western Michigan) WR
13 Arizona Cardinals John Ross (Washington) WR
14 Philadelphia Eagles Marshon Lattimore (OSU) CB
15 Indianapolis Colts Taco Charlton (Michigan) DE
16 Baltimore Ravens Marlon Humphrey (Alabama) CB
17 Washington Redskins Jabrill Peppers (Michigan) S
18 Tennessee Titans Gareon Conley (OSU) CB
19 Tampa Bay Bucs Dalvin Cook (FSU) RB
20 Denver Broncos Ryan Ramcyk (Wisconsin) OL
21 Detroit Lions Haasan Reddick (Temple) DE
22 Miami Dolphins Zach Cunningham (Vanderbilt) LB
23 New York Giants David Njoku (Miami) TE

A real dual threat athlete.

24 Oakland Raiders Caleb Brantley (Florida) DT
25 Houston Texans Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech) QB
26 Seattle Seahawks Garett Bolles (Utah) OL
27 Kansas City Chiefs Tra’Davious White (LSU) CB
28 Dallas Cowboys Adoree Jackson (USC) CB
29 Green Bay Packers Jarad Davis (Florida) LB
30 Pittsburgh Steelers Reuben Foster (Alabama) LB
31 Atlanta Falcons Charles Harris (Missouri) LB
32 New Orleans Saints Cam Robinson (Alabama) OL

Instant Anlaysis:  The Browns don’t get so lucky this time…as Western New York’s America’s team, the Buffalo Bills, make a splash and get their (next) quarterback of the future (wait, isn’t Jim Kelly’s nephew in this Draft?)  Anyway, Mitchell to the Bills makes sense.  Tyrod’s essentially on a one year deal, and Mitchell really could use a year on the sidelines to learn the NFL way (he’s not a ready-made pro-product like Andrew Luck or Cam Newton).  Plus, Tyrod and Mitchell have similar playing-styles.  Mitchell is not a pure pocket passer…he ran for 5 tds last season and played mostly out of the shotgun.  Learning from Tyrod for a year is the smart and practical thing to do. [checks Bills coaching roster to make sure the Ryan brothers are not there].  This could totally happen.

Turning to the real New York team, I can’t really envision a scenario where they don’t pick Njoku if he’s available.  Let’s get real for a second.  This pick is going to be offense.  The Giants are returning 10 of 11 starters on defense, and their problems last year were on the offensive side, with a rotating cast of linemen and I almost had them take Garrett Bolles, but there’s no real clear-cut can’t miss offensive lineman this years.  There’s a lot of flyers, and you don’t want to spend a first-round pick on a flyer.  That’s why I think the Giants will wait until later in the draft to select a lineman, maybe someone like Tayler Moton.  The beauty of Njoku (or Howard but I don’t really see him falling that far or the Giants trading up) is that he provides both offensive line support plus a receiving threat.  This 2 for 1 helps to solve the Giant’s biggest need.

Biggest winner is Christian McCaffrey, who vaults into the Top 10.  I’ve heard a lot of rumors about this is the pick for Carolina, and I’m starting to buy it.  Would improve both the running and passing game.  Cam needs weapons, both receiving and running.  The only concern is durability and is he a three-down player.  But the talent may be too much to pass up.

Elsewhere, Rueben Foster and his diluted urine sample continue to fall.  This latest news, coupled with being asked to leave the Combine for arguing with a hospital worker (true story), might move him out of the first round altogether.

Mock Draft 1.0 (Roidrage)

I know I’ve got my work cut out for me to catch up with Ginger King, but don’t be fooled, despite the 1.0-tag this is like my 17th rough draft.  The Big Board is set, but there is so much fluidity and fragility in sorting out the noise and honing in these mocks.  Let’s get right to it:

Round 1 Team Pick Position
1 Cleveland Browns Myles Garrett (Texas A&M) DE
2 San Francisco Mitchell Trubisky (UNC) QB
3 Chicago Bears Solomon Thomas (Stanford) DE
4 Jacksonville Jaguars Leonard Fournette (LSU) RB
5 Tennessee Titans Mike Williams (Clemson) WR
6 NY Jets Jamal Adams (LSU) S
7 Los Angeles Chargers Reuben Foster (Alabama) LB
8 Carolina Panthers Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) RB
9 Cincinnati Bengals Derek Barnett (Tennessee) DE

The future Face of somebody’s Franchise

10 Buffalo Bills Gareon Conley (OSU) CB
11 New Orleans Saints O.J. Howard (Alabama) TE
12 Cleveland Browns Malik Hooker (OSU) S
13 Arizona Cardinals Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech) QB
14 Philadelphia Eagles Haasan Reddick (Temple) DE
15 Indianapolis Colts Jonathon Allen (Alabama) DT
16 Baltimore Ravens Kevin King (Washington) CB
17 Washington Redskins Marshon Lattimore (OSU) CB
18 Tennessee Titans Tra’Davious White (LSU) CB
19 Tampa Bay Bucs Garett Bolles (Utah) OL
20 Denver Broncos Charles Harris (Missouri) LB
21 Detroit Lions Corey Davis (Western Michigan) WR
22 Miami Dolphins Jarad Davis (Florida) LB
23 New York Giants Jabrill Peppers (Michigan) S/CB
24 Oakland Raiders David Njoku (Miami) TE
25 Houston Texans Zach Cunningham (Vanderbilt) LB

HYBRID

26 Seattle Seahawks Ryan Ramcyk (Wisconsin) OL
27 Kansas City Chiefs Deshaun Watson (Clemson) QB
28 Dallas Cowboys Obi Melifonwu (UConn) S/CB
29 Green Bay Packers Joe Mixon (Oklahoma) RB
30 Pittsburgh Steelers Takk McKinley (UCLA) DE
31 Atlanta Falcons Cam Robinson (Alabama) OL
32 New Orleans Saints Dalvin Cook (FSU) RB

Instant Analysis:  Why wouldn’t the 49ers take Mitch?  New GM, new Coach who fancies himself a QB-guru and a Depth Chart populated with the likes of Brian Hoyer and Matt Simms.  Yikes.  What, I’m suppose to believe they are going to wait around to hopefully land Kirk Cousins.  Yeah, no.  They lock up their Franchise QB right out of the gate and have the rest of the draft to go BPA.

Obviously, I’m not a big believer in Ohio State CB Marshon Lattimore;  he plays too stiff and I will struggle with faster WRs at the next level.  That said, he could easily land in the top-10.

I have no idea where to slot Jabrill Peppers.  He is a tremendous athlete and a really good pure football player.  But where exactly do you play him?  I think he’ll go in the 20-30 range as a luxury pick for some team.

If you’re keeping track at home: that’s 2 RBs in the Top 10 (4 total in the 1st Round);  1 QB in the Top 10 (3 total in the 1st Round).

Oh, this guy sneaks into the backend of the first:

Go down swinging!

There’s no sugar-coating this.  This is disgraceful.  Just awful.  If a team drafts him, regardless of the round, or signs him as an UDFA, there is going to be a backlash.  Your PR department will be working some overtime.  Buuuut, our attention span is short and talent has a way of helping us “forgive and forget”.  Talent-wise, Mixon is a Top-10 pick, so I feel the end of the first already has a hefty discount baked in.

Mock Draft 3.0 (Ginger King)

We’re inside 2 weeks.  There are some big changes here as edge closer to the Draft.  So many questions, so little time.  But that’s why we’re here.  To answer all your questions, until we change the answers next week.  Enjoy.

Round 1 Team Pick Position
1 Cleveland Browns Myles Garrett (Texas A&M) DE
2 San Francisco Solomon Thomas (Stanford) DE
3 Chicago Bears Jamal Adams (LSU) S
4 Jacksonville Jaguars Leonard Fournette (LSU) RB
5 Tennessee Titans O.J. Howard (Alabama) TE
6 NY Jets Jonathon Allen (Alabama) DE
7 Los Angeles Chargers Malik Hooker (OSU) S
8 Carolina Panthers Dalvin Cook (FSU) RB
9 Cincinnati Bengals Mike Williams (Clemson) WR

Paired opposite AJ = matchup nightmare.

10 Buffalo Bills Marshon Lattimore (OSU) CB
11 New Orleans Saints Derek Barnett (Tennessee) DE
12 Cleveland Browns Mitchell Trubisky (UNC) QB
13 Arizona Cardinals John Ross (Washington) WR
14 Philadelphia Eagles Marlon Humphrey (Alabama) CB
15 Indianapolis Colts Reuben Foster (Alabama) LB
16 Baltimore Ravens Corey Davis (Western Michigan) WR
17 Washington Redskins Jabrill Peppers (Michigan) S
18 Tennessee Titans Tra’Davious White (LSU) CB
19 Tampa Bay Bucs Ryan Ramcyk (Wisconsin) OL
20 Denver Broncos Garett Bolles (Utah) OL
21 Detroit Lions Taco Charlton (Michigan) DE
22 Miami Dolphins Zach Cunningham (Vanderbilt) LB
23 New York Giants David Njoku (Miami) TE
24 Oakland Raiders Caleb Brantley (Florida) DT
25 Houston Texans Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech) QB

The successor to the Brock Osweiler era.

26 Seattle Seahawks Haasan Reddick (Temple) DE
27 Kansas City Chiefs Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) RB
28 Dallas Cowboys Jarad Davis (Florida) LB
29 Green Bay Packers TJ Watt (Wisconsin) LB
30 Pittsburgh Steelers Josh Jones (NC State) S
31 Atlanta Falcons Cam Robinson (Alabama) OL
32 New Orleans Saints Gareon Conley (OSU) CB

 

Instant Anlaysis:  Mitchell falling to 12 would be the dream scenario for the Browns, but chances of that working out are iffy.  In fact, I’m not sure he’ll make it, as there are a few teams (Jets, Saints, and even the Bills as a dark horse) that could take Trubisky.  But for now, we’ll give Cleveland some LeBron magic.  Elsewhere, speed sells, as Mr. 4.22 John Ross keeps moving up and up.  He’d fit in perfectly in Arizona, a true deep threat to open up the underneath for (suddenly old) Larry Fitzgerald.  This, in turn, moves Corey Davis up a few slots.  It’s a deceptively deep draft for receivers, but only 3 are first round worthy.  After that, it’s a muddled mix of maybes and could-bes, guys like Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster, Zay Jones, Dede Westbrook, and Curtis Samuel.

On the defensive side, secondary rules.  As many as 8 cornerbacks/safeties (a quarter of the first round) could go on Day 1.  When you think about it, as the league continues to change to a pass-first offense, defenses adjust accordingly.  Thus, corners and safeties become more of a priority.

Mock Draft 2.0 (Ginger King)

NFL Draft 2017

Happy April Fool’s Day!  Did you enjoy scarring your children for life by pretending to throw the family dog into oncoming traffic (Sparkles, no!!!)  Honestly, is there a dumber day out there that people celebrate (not including anything Canada celebrates that we don’t, because really, what the fuck is Boxing Day.  And don’t even get me started about Victoria Day.

Anyway, there’s no fooling around with The Draft.  We’re inside a month.  It’s time to get real.  The first wave of free agency has come and gone, and that has dramatically shaped the first round.  Check out our updated First Round.

Round 1 Team Pick Position
1 Cleveland Browns Myles Garrett (Texas A&M) DE
2 San Francisco Solomon Thomas (Stanford) DE
3 Chicago Bears Jonathon Allen (Alabama) DE
4 Jacksonville Jaguars Leonard Fournette (LSU) RB
5 Tennessee Titans Jamal Adams (LSU) S
6 NY Jets Mitch Trubisky (UNC) QB
7 Los Angeles Chargers Malik Hooker (OSU) S
8 Carolina Panthers Dalvin Cook (FSU) RB
9 Cincinnati Bengals O.J. Howard (Alabama) TE
OJ may be the best offensive player in The Draft.

OJ may be the best offensive player in The Draft.

 

10 Buffalo Bills Marshon Lattimore (OSU) CB
11 New Orleans Saints Mike Williams (Clemson) WR
12 Cleveland Browns Cam Robinson (Alabama) OL
13 Arizona Cardinals Reuben Foster (Alabama) LB
14 Philadelphia Eagles Tra’Davious White (LSU) CB
15 Indianapolis Colts Ryan Ramcyk (Wisconsin) OL
16 Baltimore Ravens John Ross (Washington) WR
17 Washington Redskins Jabrill Peppers (Michigan) LB
18 Tennessee Titans Corey Davis (Western Michigan) WR
19 Tampa Bay Bucs Caleb Brantley (Florida) DT
20 Denver Broncos Garett Bolles (Utah) OL
21 Detroit Lions Taco Charlton (Michigan) DE
22 Miami Dolphins Zach Cunningham (Vanderbilt) LB
23 New York Giants David Njoku (Miami) TE
24 Oakland Raiders Marlon Humphrey (Alabama) CB
25 Houston Texans Forrest Lamp (Western Kentucky) OL
26 Seattle Seahawks Kevin King (Washington) CB
27 Kansas City Chiefs Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) RB
White Lightning.

White Lightning.

28 Dallas Cowboys Haasan Reddick (Temple) DE
29 Green Bay Packers T.J. Watt (Wisconsin) LB
30 Pittsburgh Steelers Charles Harris (Missouri) DE
31 Atlanta Falcons Jordan Willis (Kansas St.) DE
32 New Orleans Saints Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech) QB

Instant Analysis:  Biggest mover is OJ Howard.  Once thought to be available in the late first round, Howard is flying up draft boards.  He’s a two-for one…he’ll improve your passing game and blocking game.  Another riser is John Ross.  Speed sells, and 4.22 is pretty damn fast.  Some fallers include quarterbacks, specifically Deshaun Watson and DeShone Kizer.  Simply put: this is weak QB class, and, when that’s the case, teams are finding that they can get success at QB in later rounds (Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott).  Barring some teams trading back up into the first round (don’t forget about that 5th year team option for 1st round picks), I can’t see more than 2 qbs going in the first.

Another big winner is running backs.  The modern trend puts less value on running backs, however this Draft figures to be different.  Fournette is a bruiser (has Tom Coughlin guy written all over him) and Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey are the dual-threat backs teams cream over.  It’s been 5 years since 3 backs were taken in the First Round.  We like the chances this year.

Mock Draft 1.0 (Ginger King)

NFL Draft 2017

Is your bracket busted?  Yours truly was looking great until Wisconsin just ruined it all!  Oh well, it’s time to focus on what’s really important.  The NFL Draft!

We’re almost a month away (but you knew that) from the most important (not actual) sporting event.  Teams looking to rebuild (Cleveland, again), reload (New England, again), and just fill in the last remaining pieces to a championship run.

Now, if you’ve looked at mock drafts thus far, good for you…but they are utterly meaningless.  Any mock you see pre-Combine is worthless.  Ditto for anything pre-free agency.  I don’t know how many times we’ve stressed this to anyone that will listen, but teams are built through free agency, and then supplemented via the draft.  You think Philly’s going WR after signing Alshon Jeffrey???  You think Chicago’s drafting a qb after signing Mike Glennon (possible, but unlikely).  Anyway, it’s still too early for a full mock, but let’s give you a flavor for our Top 10.  Here.  We.  Go.

Round 1 Team Pick Position
1 Cleveland Browns Myles Garrett (Texas A&M) DE
2 San Francisco Mitch Trubisky (UNC) QB
3 Chicago Bears Jonathon Allen (Alabama) DT
4 Jacksonville Jaguars Solomon Thomas (Stanford) DE
5 Tennessee Titans Jamal Adams (LSU) S
6 NY Jets Malik Hooker (OSU) S
7 Los Angeles Chargers Mike Williams (Clemson) WR
8 Carolina Panthers Dalvin Cook (FSU) RB
9 Cincinnati Bengals Leonard Fournette (LSU) RB
10 Buffalo Bills Marshon Lattimore (OSU) CB
Congrats on being the best player in the Draft.  Your reward is a trip to Cleveland and a losing season.

Congrats on being the best player in the Draft. Your reward is a trip to Cleveland and a losing season.

Instant Analysis:  I think the Browns are locked on to Garrett.  Let’s be honest:  The Browns need a lot of things.  Yes, they need a quarterback.  Yes, they need a running back.  But what they really need most is a sure thing…and Garrett is the only sure thing in this Draft.  Plus, the Browns also have the #12 pick (finally, they are doing this draft thing right and stockpiling picks).  It’s possible that Trubisky, Fournette, or Cook fall to #12.  It’s not possible that Garrett does.  Try all you want, but defenses still win championships.

Stock is falling.

Stock is falling.

Other notables:  The Jets (wisely) pass on a RB in the first round and shore up their secondary.  LA splashes with a WR (hey, they need to sell tickets, defense may win championships, but offense sells luxury boxes).  For now, I have Fournette going in the Top 10…but that slow 40 may drop him.  I do think that he will be the second running back taken, as Dalvin Cook fits the modern day running back mold (dual threat running and receiving).  And Buffalo switches gears and goes with the best cover corner in the draft, after losing Stephon Gilmore to free agency (see how that works).

As we get closer to the real deal, we’ll give you a full analysis of the first round.  For now, enjoy this taste.

Super Bowl 51: Why the Patriots will win

“Hilariously, Roid Rage has to tell you why the Patriots will win the Super Bowl.  For a devout Buffalo Bills fan (is there any other kind?) that must be the most painful experience since the Music City Miracle”

That’s me quoting Ginger King.  And while it’s true that I had to get 7 or 8 Genny Lights deep before even powering up the laptop, at least I’m not delusion.  I’m mean, the Falcon’s beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl?!  Only if Jacoby Brissett is playing (is that dude even still in the league, or is he bagging groceries in the Midwest somewhere?!) [Editor’s note: despite being activated from IR for the playoff run, Brissett will likely be a healthy scratch for the Super Bowl.  But he’ll still get one of those big ass Super Bowl rings after the Pats dismantle the Dirty Birds!]  Thanks for the note editor, I couldn’t have said it better myself.

The argument for the Falcons is laughable.  The hot young quarterback—that’s never played in a Super Bowl—leading a “high-powered” offense against (future HOF coach) Bill Belichick and (future HOF QB) Tom Brady?  What could possible go wrong?  Do you know who doesn’t care that the Falcons have the reigning MVP on their team?  Or that the rest of the league has had a hard time stopping their offense?  Or that Julio Jones seems to be a cyborg dressed in a football jersey?  That’s right, this guy…..

Can his Canton bust please be wearing a hoodie

Guess how Bill is going to crack Matt Ryan?…..Pressure.  Guess what his plan will be for taking Julio out of the gameplan?….double coverage, bracket coverage, bump-and-run with safety help.  Guess where they are going to catch the Falcons underprepared?….special teams.

While the Falcons have built themselves an awesome football team, it’s the exact OPPOSITE of the kind of team that gives the Patriots fits.  If there is a “blue-print” to beating the Patriots, what is it?  The ’08 Giants and ’16 Broncos should come to mind?  No, you don’t need a Manning under center….or a miraculously stupid catch (or two)…..Those teams had dominate defensive lines that could generate consist pressure (up the middle) with 4-guys, while dropping 7 into coverage.  The Falcons can’t do that.  If anything, their defensive line, especially up the middle, is a liability.  To generate pressure they’ll be forced to send a blitzer.  And blitzing Brady is like playing with fire, you’re bound to get burned Napalmed. The guy doesn’t miss a beat.  He checks every play at the line, aligns the blocking assignments and never misses a hot read.   It’s not like they are going to throw something at him he hasn’t seen (which is exactly what BB will do to Matty Ice btw).  Oh, Dan Quinn’s defense.  Yeah, played against that…..in a Super Bowl none the less….oh, and won that game.  Yawn.

This guy

This guy

Trust me, I want Brady to get clobbered and throw an interception on EVERY pass attempt.  That’s what I root for when they play against the Bills….or the Dolphins….or the Jaguars for crying out loud.  But it just doesn’t happen.  The guy is averaging 335 yards and 2.5 TDs in the postseason this year.  He wakes up (next to a supermodel) and pisses excellence.  True, he only eats baby seal liver on a bed of Kale and goes for blood palette therapy like you or I go to the barbershop, but such is the life a rockstar.  As much as it pains me to say it, he is the greatest quarterback of all time.  Don’t take my word for it; all of these boners lined up on media row to say the same thing this week.  You could argue the Texans (easily) and maybe even the Steelers have a better defense than the Falcons.  Those teams didn’t have any answers for TB12 and company, so how exactly are the Falcons going to slow down them down? Not gonna happen.

No Gronk?  No problem!  Brady will spread the ball all over the field, exploiting match-ups and throwing his guys open.  Seriously, Brady can take any other teams third WR and turn him into a star.  Hello Wes Welker Chris Hogan.  Edelman seemingly can’t be covered within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage.  It’s death by a 1,000 paper cuts when you play the Patriots.  If they need 6-yards for a first down they get 8.  3rd-and-1: QB-sneak for 2 yards.  First-and-goal, here comes the battering ram LeGarrett Blount.  Wait until they get Dion Lewis matched-up against a linebacker.  Think Brady won’t exploit that?

Not catching passes from EJ Manuel sure has its upside

Not catching passes from EJ Manuel sure has its upside

I do like what the Falcons have going on the offensive side of the ball.  Matt Ryan is peaking at the right time.  He isn’t necessarily locking onto Julio (which is exactly what I’d be doing), and spreading the ball around.  They’ve done a nice job bringing in complimentary pieces to bolster their attack, mainly Mohammad Sanu.  Perhaps there best way to attack the Patriots is their one-two punch of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.  Both are excellent receivers out of the backfield and both possess game-breaking speed.  New England’s linebackers struggle in pass coverage.

New England’s defense does give up chunk plays; and have long been regarded as a bend-but-don’t-break defense.  But they are so well coached that they always seem to be in the right place at the right time.  They always seem to punch the ball loose just before the runner’s knee hits the ground.  Or get their hands up just in time to deflect a ball for an interception.   Julio will have to work for everything he gets in this game.  He’s such a physically dominate player he could go off despite New England’s efforts to shut him down.

At the end of the day [narrative alert] this is a legacy cementing game for BB and TB12.  A win here…..better yet, a beatdown here…. and they’ve both blasted the GOAT conversation out of the water.  You know Tom wants to force Goodell to hand him that Super Bowl MVP trophy (and shitty Nissan truck that he’ll give to Jackie Slater for making a key tackle on punt coverage).  And there is a little part of me (okay, all of me and the entire Bills Mafia) that wanst Brady to give Goodell the ultimate FU and retire!  Yeah, that’ll show him Tom!  I mean, Brady and his agent  are forming their own league.  Said league would draw a much bigger audience if they had the greatest quarterback in the world running the show.  Just thinking out loud here!

GOATCITY

GOATCITY

So get your popcorn, chili, nachos, smoked wings, 18-layer bean dip and whatever other goodness you’re going to cram into you face ready, because it’s SUPER BOWL SUNDAY BABY!!!

New England 24, Atlanta 18

***(Yes, hammer the under!)***

 

SUPER BOWL 51 : WHY THE FALCONS WILL WIN

Oh yeah!  Are you ready?  The greatest game in American all of sports is set to be played Sunday night in Houston.  Seriously, after the Super Bowl, we fall off the sports cliff (but pitchers and catchers report on zzzzzzzzzzzz).

Anyway, the high-flying Atlanta Falcons take on the New England Patriots.  Yes, the same Patriots that are always in the Super Bowl.  With the same cheating quarterback, same cheating coach, and same cast of bit-players and discarded running backs and receivers who somehow become great once they put on that stupid uniform.  I’m looking at you Chris Hogan!  Hilariously, Roid Rage has to tell you why the Patriots will win the Super Bowl.  For a devout Buffalo Bills fan (is there any other kind?) that must be the most painful experience since the Music City Miracle (sorry, bro).  Well, if you’re like 99% of Americans (and 100% of Americans who can pronounce the letter r) there’s only one to root for come Sunday.  So let me tell you why the Atlanta Falcons will win the Super Bowl.

Let’s start with a video, shall we:  I call this one, Julio-ma-god!

Everyone loves to talk about quarterbacks, but I like to talk about the most dominant player on the field.  That is Julio Jones, who has absolutely lit up the field in the postseason.  Here’s Julio’s stat line this postseason:  15/247/3.  In two games!  He is unstoppable.  Even when he’s doubled, or guarded with safety help underneath, he’s a threat (watch that video again).

Next stop:  endzone.

Next stop: endzone.

Julio’s an atypical wide receiver, in that he’s not a complete self-absorbed diva.  You’ll never see him taking videos in the locker room, or partying with Bieber.  His laid back, unassuming attitude might not get him headlines, but he’s not looking for that.  He’s looking to win.  That doesn’t mean he lacks confidence, he just doesn’t need to be a dick about it.  During the (annoyingly long) media day, Julio was asked if anyone can guard him.  In a very polite, yet matter-of-fact tone, Julio responded.  “One-on-one, no I do not.”  Period.  And we believe him.

Don’t forget about us.

Julio is only the beginning of the problem for the Patriots.  Simply put:  the Falcons have a more complete offense than the Patriots.  Both running and receiving are (by far) superior to New England.  Stick that in your Wahlbahgah!  Mohammed Sanu has scored a touchdown in each playoff game this year, and Taylor Gabriel continues to display is “X-factor” [draft day drinking game term…chug!].  He hasn’t scored in the postseason (yet), but we love his work on the inside.  That’s where the Patriots D is most vulnerable.  They’ll work to contain Julio and Sanu outside, which should leave lanes for Gabriel and his ridiculous speed.

Don't forget about me, either.

Don’t forget about me, either.

Who’s the receiving game’s best friend, you ask?  A running game.  And the Falcons succeed there too.  Devonta Freeman’s so, good, he’s talking contract extension BEFORE the Super Bowl.  That’s either insanely naïve or confident, and based on his play, we’ll go with the latter.  Devonta hasn’t rushed for many yards in the playoffs, but he’s scored a touchdown in each playoff game, and he’s a [cue draft day drinking game term] dual threat, as he can catch the ball out of the backfield.  In their Divisional Playoff game against Seattle, Freeman was the Falcon’s leading receiver.  That just adds another defensive scheme wrinkle…if the Pats double Julio and drop two safeties in coverage to stop the pass and shadow the slot, that will leave Devonta one-on-one in the flat against a linebacker.  We like those odds.

But let’s not just talk about the offense.  The defense gets their props too.  While obviously overshadowed by the offense, the defense is no slouch.  And, more importantly, they match up really well against the Patriots.  If history is any indicator, the recipe against the Pats is front 4 pressure, close the pocket, and get in Brady’s face.  Like this:

Or this:

Speed on the edge and pressure up front.  Atlanta’s all over that.  The Falcons are the second coming of the Legion of Boom, which is no surprise, seeing as how Falcons Head Coach Dan Quinn was the defensive coordinator in Seattle prior to taking the job with Atlanta.  Long, aggressive, and quick, and it starts up front, with NFL leading-sack man Vic Beasley.  He’s listed as a linebacker, but don’t be surprised to see him with his hands on the ground up front.  For true defensive ends, the Falcons have a good blend of youth and experience, with Adrian Clayborn, Tyson Jackson, and Dwight Freeney (what is he, like 50?).  The Patriots O-line will have their hands full.

In the secondary, things don’t get much better.  Yes, they’re inexperienced, but 2nd year stud Jalen Collins is quickly establishing himself as a lockdown corner, and rookie Keanu Neal adds even more speed in the safety spot.  Speed and length in the secondary allows for an aggressive game plan for the front seven.

MVP! MVP! MVP!

MVP! MVP! MVP!

Oh, yeah, and we didn’t even talk about (soon to be) MVP Matt Ryan.  Ryan followed up his brilliant regular season with an even more brilliant performance in the playoffs.  He’s thrown for 730 yard and 7 touchdowns…in 2 games!  Those are Madden-esque numbers.  Plus, Matt’s got one more trick up his sleeve to help him in the Super Bowl.  Advice from the only man that’s beaten Tom in the Super Bowl (twice).  You know I can’t write a Super Bowl winning article without mentioning Eli.

You can talk mystique and hoodies all you want, but these Patriots are riding on the coattails of the past.  The loss of Gronk will be felt even more now that Martellus Bennett is limping.  He’ll play, but he won’t be near 100%.  Look, they’re still the Patriots.  This game will not be a blowout.  Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, with his perfect little arm, perfect wife, perfect family…dammit we him.  But Atlanta’s got too much firepower for the Patriots to handle.

One more thing:  Bet.  The.  Under.  We know the Falcons have scored 30+ points in six consecutive games.  We know the Patriots score in bunches too.  We know we told you to bet the over in the NFC Championship Game against Green Bay when it was a jaw-dropping 61 (you’re welcome).  We know everyone is expecting a shootout.  But hear us out.  First, the over/under is at a historic high for the Super Bowl at 59.  Second, only 4 times has the over/under for a Super Bowl been over 50 points.  The under has hit all 4 times.  Defenses gel as the playoffs move on, and playcalling gets more conservative as the stakes get higher.  Look for the under to be successful for the 5th time.

Final thoughts:  Not for nothing, but you should root for the Falcons.  With all the gut shots America’s taken over the past month, another Patriots Super Bowl will just put us over the edge.

This ginger’s flying high with the Falcons.  Let’s make Football great again.

Final Score:  Atlanta 31, New England 27

NFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP

It's go time!

It’s go time!

While the AFC may be a foregone conclusion (Roid Rage does his best, but if even he is picking the Patriots, then it’s a sure thing), the NFC is wide open.  Both teams are playing top level football.  The Falcons dismantled the Seahawks last week, and Green Bay won an instant classic against the Cowboys (thank you).  Is there any doubt that kicker is the most intense, pressure-packed job in all of sports?

Wait, can we talk about that Dallas/Green Bay again for a second?  That’s everything you want in a game.  Home team down 15 in the fourth quarter, they claw back, tie it up, and then Green Bay hits a pair of 50+ yarders.  And that throw and catch.  Hot damn.

Damn.

Damn.

The best part?  All of these videos (and believe me, there are tons of them)

Seriously, I could (and did) spend a whole day watching the misery of others passionate football fans commiserate a loss.  What does that say about me?  And then seeing this tweet from Skip Bayless, sad, sad, Cowboys homer.

Is there anything more annoying than a pompous sports writer who won’t accept defeat?  Joe Buck?  Just kidding Joe, we love you.

We love you, Joe!

We love you, Joe!

Anyway, let’s get right to the matchup, which should be a good one.

Green Bay at Atlanta (+6), Sunday 3:05 pm

Three words:  Bet.  The.  Over.  What’s that, you say?  The O/U is 61?  I don’t care.  Bet.  The.  Over.  Need proof.  In each of their last 5 games, Atlanta and Green Bay have scored at least 30 points (Atlanta topped 40 twice).  Not surprisingly, the teams are a combined 10-0 over those games.

And the scoring will not let up come game time.  Forget what you’ve heard that defense wins championships.  Both teams are ranked in the 20’s in overall defense.  Sure, that’s a risky strategy that’s ultimately unsuccessful, regardless of the sport (see 2016 Golden State Warriors), but hey, it’s worked so far for both teams.  Why stop now?  Ride that pony.

Get it?

Get it?

On paper, the edge goes to Atlanta.  They have the most offensive balance (read:  they actually have a running game).  Don’t call Devonta Freeman a change of pace back.  He’s a legit #1 back, and he and Tevin Coleman form the best 1-2 punch in the league.  That keeps the defenses up front, which opens up the passing game for Matty Ice (it’s cool to call him that again).  And that passing game is more than just Julio Jones, although you don’t really need much more.  Mohammed Sanu is a solid #2, and we love what Taylor Gabriel brings.  He’s the real X-factor in their offense, and he tied with Julio for most receiving touchdowns.

For Green Bay, it’s all about Aaron Rodgers.  Everyone wants to talk about his home life, and his estrangement from his parents (note:  I’d choose Olivia Munn over my family too), but Aaron Rodgers is the hottest quarterback in the game.

Totally worth never talking to your parents anymore.

Totally worth never talking to your parents anymore.

The Packers are riding an 8-game winning streak, during which Rodgers has thrown 21 touchdowns passes and only 1 interception.  Daddy may not love him anymore, but who needs your parent’s approval with numbers like that.  Papa don’t preach!

Replacement Dad.

Replacement Dad.

Oh yeah, these two played each other, Week 8, in Atlanta.  The Falcons won 33-32, on a late touchdown pass to Sanu.  Green Bay was up for most of the game, but Atlanta scored with 31 seconds left to squeak out a one point victory.  In that game, the Packers shut down Julio, who only had 3 catches for 29 yards.  The Pack will have to contain Julio again.  He’s got to be doubled plus you got to keep Clay and linebackers up front to respect the run.  That will leave lots of open space in the middle and one-on-one coverage for Sanu and Gabriel (nerd alert:  I love the chess match aspect of the NFL).

So who will win?  This one is tough to call, but there’s a reason we’re paid the big bucks.  To make these sorts of decisions.  Because we’re super reliable.  Like, it’s 3 in the morning.  Do you know where our kids are?  Probably at the neighbor’s house.  Anyway, we just can’t trust the Falcons.  Kyle Shanahan already has one foot in San Fran (good luck with that clusterfuck of an organization) and [NFL conspiracy theory alert] what better way to get ratings up than to have the Packers back in the Super Bowl, the beloved franchise from the heartland.  The Machine’s money is on Green Bay to win straight up.  But if you want a real bet, keep reading.

Bet of the Week [only true gamblers need read on]:  Tease the Packers and the over.  Then you get Green Bay +13 and O/U 54.  For the truly degenerate devoted, tease the Packers and the under too (+13 and O/U of 68).  Print that money, homie.  Not to toot our own horn (read: totally tooting that shit) but if you’ve been betting on our playoff picks, you’ve been cleaning up (you’re welcome).  We were 2-0 last week ATS (and straight up).  Time to start making that money!  That deck ain’t gonna pay for itself.

Final Score:  Green Bay 34, Atlanta 30

Insert Farmer's daughter fantasy.

Insert Farmer’s daughter fantasy.

AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP

logo01Pittsburgh @ New England (-6), Sunday, 6:40 pm

The Playoffs are back!!  Hot damn!  Those Divisional Games were awesome.  Aaron Rodgers moved from ‘Elite’ to ‘Legendary’ status with one throw.  Seriously.  Moving to his left, throws a 37 yard rope along the sidelines to a sliding/kneeling Jared Cook.  Nice catch too…but that throw!

The Steelers-Chiefs game was compelling in its own right; what with the touchdown, made-two-point-conversion-called-back-due-to-holding followed by a failed two-point conversion in the last two minutes.  Good stuff.  But the highlight came about 7 minutes after the game, when Antonio Brown (genius) decided to Facebook Live the Steelers lock room.  Thanks for this gem AB:

It’s mostly just AB running his hands through his hair, flashing the “call me” sign and showing teammates bragging, dancing, swearing, undressing and just goofing around.  15 of the 17 minutes basically goes like this….”God is good man….we at fucking 42k…..bang bang bang….we live…God is the greatest”…Oh, and Antonio thought it’d be a great idea (which it was) to keep the video rolling during coach Tomlins postgame address.  You know, the one where he calls the Patriots a bunch of assholes (more on that in a bit) among other things.  But the best part is Tomlin literally telling the guys to “keep a low profile….be cool on social media” and “keep your mouth shut”.  At one point LeVeon Bell turns to Brown and snickers something about keeping it cool on social media.  Brown is unfazed, continuing to stream away.  It’s ridiculous and glorious at the same time.  Social media is going to be a torn in the NFLs side for a long time to come.

Tomlin, Brown and the Steelers went to work on damage control.  But honestly, the comments were pretty harmless and much ado about nothing.  Seriously, how can that be considered “bulletin board material?”  The Patriots are assholes!!  I know it, you know it, hell even they know it. Tom Brady is a giant asshole, but he’s just following the lead of his lying, cheating asshole coach.  But it starts at the top; Bob Kraft is a walking, talking live-action asshole.  Come to think of it, the city of Boston is filled with only assholes.

And you thought that foul smell was from all the beans they eat!

And you thought that foul smell was from all the beans they eat!

With all that said, on to the game!

What a matchup.  Two prolific offenses.  Two HOF quarterbacks.  Two dynamic running backs.  Two bend-but-don’t-break defenses.  While everyone is expecting a shootout between the Packers-Falcons, this one certainly could go down that road.

The matchup to watch

The matchup to watch

This game will be a rematch of Week 7….sort of.  The Patriots won, 27-16 in convincing fashion.  Much has been made this week that Belichick used Malcolm Brown to shadow, and contain Antonio Brown (57.4 passer rating when thrown to, 0 TD, 1 INT ….@NFLReasearch).  I’m going to go ahead and take that game- and those stats- with a giant Himalayan rock crystal of salt for one reason: Ben Roethlisberger didn’t play.  Landry Jones was on the other end of those AB throws.  And Brown still finish the game with 7 REC for 106 YDS.  More impressive however was the Patriots containment of LeVeon Bell, whom only average 3.9 yards per carry.  Bell did most of this damage through the air (as a result of playing from behind), adding 10 REC for 68 YDS.  Meanwhile, Tom Brady was his ever efficient self, going 19/26 for 222 YDS and 2 TDS.  LeGarrette Blount carried the mail with 27 carries for 127 YDS and 2 TDS.

Like I said, the Steelers were without Big Ben.  And the Patriots had Gronk in that game.  Week 7 was a long time ago.

12 to 11, all day

12 to 11, all day

The Patriots have had an easy playoff run so far: bye week and a cakewalk past the Texans.  On the other hand, the Steelers faced a feisty Miami team and a tough Kansas City team in hostile territory.  The Patriots are going to try to wear the Steelers defense away with their intermediate passing attack that features Julian Edelman and a healthy Dion Lewis.  I’d be shocked if Edelmen doesn’t catch 10 balls this week.  Blount could be in for another heavy usage game if the Patriots can build an early lead.

The Steelers do have weapons galore on offense, so they should be able to keep it within striking distance.  But they aren’t going to beat the Patriots by settling for FGs like they did against the Chiefs.  I’d expect Tomlin to be aggressive all day, particularly in the redzone.

We’ve been crowning the Patriots the AFC Champs for 3 weeks now (it makes us nauseous too).  It seems like a forgone conclusion.  Bettors agree, pushing the line to NE -6.  I think it’ll be much closer than that and I won’t be shocked if Pittsburgh wins this game outright!

Pittsburgh 25, New England 27

Who ya got?

Who ya got?

DIVISIONAL WEEKEND – AFC (SUNDAY)

KCPITTHey, what do ya know, an AFC Playoff game that actually looks good on paper!  The Steelers high-power offense travels to Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City’s Chiefs dynamic defense.  What could possible go wrong?  Oh, maybe just a giant fucking Midwestern ice storm!  I’ve been to Kansas, it’s a terrifying place on the best of days.

You say "Ice Storm", we say "Good Football weather"

You say “Ice Storm”, we say “Good Football weather”

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City (-1.5), Sunday, 8:20 pm

The Steelers walked all over the Dolphins last week.  Bell, Ben, Brown, they all got theirs.  To that point (rant alert!) how the hell do guys like Anthony Lynn and Sean McVay score head coaching gigs and Todd Haley can’t even get an interview.  Sure, he’s got a great quarterback and weapons to work with, but that’s not held against Josh McDaniel’s, whom is everyone’s favorite “hot” coordinator.  Haley does a great job of involving and maximizing the players’ talents on the roster, not to mention he has head coaching experience.   He must be a giant dickhole.

HALEYNAABAnyways, the Steelers avenged their Week 6 loss to the Dolphins.  As we mentioned last week, that game was the turning point of the Steelers offense.  Similarly, the Chiefs turned their season around after their Week 4 dismantling in Pittsburgh.  In that game, which KC lost 43-14, Ben Roethlisberger tossed 5 TDs before the Chiefs found pay dirt.  Since that game, the Chiefs went 10-2.

The Chiefs remind me quite a bit of the Broncos from a season ago.  Aggressive defense that pressures the quarterback and takes the ball away (first in the league in interceptions).  Their offense, led by the perpetually underrated  Alex Smith, has been well-balanced.  Travis Kelce is a match-up nightmare over the middle and down the seam.  The Chiefs find creative ways to the get the ball to Tyreek Hill, who is as explosive and creative in the open-field as he is on Twitter! Hill has also made a significant impact on the return game.

KCs dynamic duo

KCs dynamic duo

Big Ben tweaked his ankle late in the game against the Dolphins.  Like, really late when the game was out of hand.  I like Tomlin and all, but when are these coaches going to use their damn brains?  Protect your assets!

Speaking of assets!

Speaking of assets!

Offensively, the Steelers average almost a full touchdown less on the road this season; while KC allowed less than 16 points on average at home.  KC’s defense is more than capacble of hanging with Ben & Co.

This game is going to be close and probably come down to the final few drives.  I give a slight edge to Kansas City due to their defense, the extra week of rest and special teams.  Either way, one of these teams will be on to Foxborough!

Kansas City 18, Pittsburgh 13