Can we have a close game please?

As I sit here and watch the Patriots well on their way to covering a 16-point spread, I think:  Sweet baby Jesus, are we going to have a close game ever this playoff season?  All 6 playoff games thus far have been double-digit victories by the home team.  Where’s the parity?  [stands up on soapbox] Where’s the “any given Sunday” bullshit?  [speaking aloud now]. The NFL can blame the presidential election all they want, but, if you ask me, ratings are down because the meaningful games aren’t close.  There’s no drama.  No intrigue.  The biggest story this week was the Chargers moving to L.A., and no one really gives a shit about that.  L.A. fans are already booing.  Ouch, that’s cold.

But fool me once, shame on me.  Fool me 6 times, and shame on me still.  Because, like a dog in heat, I know there’s some good action right around the corner.  I just got to keep at it.  And speaking of good action, let’s break down the Cowboys and Packers.

Green Bay at Dallas (-5.5), 4:40 p.m.

God dammit.  The Cowboys are the Number 1 seed [commence head getting ready to explode].  I can’t take hearing Jerry Jones scream, “How ‘bout them Cowboys!”  As if that a-hole had anything to do with it.  Yes, the Cowboys have drafted brilliantly over the past couple years…solidifying their o-line with picks like Travis Frederick, Zach Martin, and Tyron Smith.  And obviously, they hit a couple of homers this past draft with Ezekiel Elliot and Dak Prescott Anyway, the only thing Jerrah did right was shutting up (to the extent that’s possible).  Remember when he wanted to draft Johnny Football?  He’s at least smart enough to learn to stay out of the way…but not humble enough to give the credit to others.  Anywho, let’s get to the game.

Not all of Jerry’s decisions are bad…

While everyone thought that Ezekiel Elliot had the potential to hit the ground running (pun intended) no one thought the same of Dak.  In fact, nothing was expected of Dak, who was drafted in the 4^th round, 135^th overall, and the 7^th qb taken.  He wasn’t even expected to play, let alone succeed.  And succeed he did, tying for the most wins by a rookie QB.  But here’s the worst part about Dak:  we like him (note: we will deny this in public).  He doesn’t make mistakes.  Doesn’t get rattled, even under pressure.  He progresses through his reads like a veteran.  And he seems like a good guy, someone you would probably root for if he were on any other team.  If there’s any silver lining, it’s that Tony Romo is now a has been.  He’ll look great in Buffalo!

Out with the old, in with the new!

While Dak was a pleasant surprise, everyone had high expectations of Elliott, who was drafted #4 overall.  Zeke lived up to those high expectations and then some…leading the league in rushing with 1,631 yards, over 300 yards more than the next running back.  He made defenses look foolish.

Simply nasty.

How can a rookie running back and quarterback win 13 games and be the number 1 seed?  What happened to the NFL learning curve?  It certainly helps to have a championship caliber line to open up monster running lanes.  Offensively, the Cowboys don’t have great balance.  They are only 23^rd in the league in passing at 226 yards per game, but they are second in rushing at 149 yards per game.  Having a dominant running game will always (yes, always) trump the passing game.  It keeps your offense on the field, controlling the clock and managing drives.  The fewer chances the other team has with the ball the fewer opportunities they have to score.  So can this rookie duo propel Jerrah back to the Super Bowl?  Enter Green Bay.

Another touchdown pass.

The Packers are the hottest team in the playoffs right now.  Aaron Rodgers and company put on a show last week against the Giants.  They bend but don’t break.  They were down early, hung around, and then did this at the end of the first half:

After that, the party was on.  Green Bay poured it on in the second half, outscoring the Giants 24-7, and winning by 25 points.  And the Discount Doublecheck was in full effect.  Rodgers threw for 362 yards, 4 tds, and 0 ints.  Sure, they only ran the ball for 75 yards, but when you’re hot, you’re hot, and Green Bay can and will ride Aaron Rodgers.

Yes, the loss of Jordy Nelson in this game is huge.  He leads the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns.  But Randall Cobb and burgeoning superstar Davonte Adams still provide sufficient firepower.

Basically, what this game comes down to is who do you trust more?  Aaron Rodgers or Dak Prescott?  Dak has had a solid season, but he’s never played in a playoff game before.  The stage is that much brighter.  The pressure that much greater.  Sorry, but I’m a prove it to me type of guy, and I don’t believe it until I see it.

Aaron Rodgers is playoff battle tested.  Green Bay’s been in the playoffs 8 years in a row.  They know how to handle themselves.  For his career, Rodgers has thrown 31 playoff tds (and only 8 ints).  I’ll take that body of work over the rookie.

And on defense, Green Bay will load up the box and dare Dak to beat them deep.  Look for Clay Matthews to shadow Elliott.  Zeke better have his head on a swivel if Dak throws a check down pass, because this will be coming at him full steam.

No concealed carry permit required for these guns.

Bottom line:  It is unreasonable to expect a rookie quarterback (and running back) to have this much success.  While the regular season learning curve may be going away, there’s still a playoff learning curve, right?  The Machine thinks so, and thinks that Green Bay will walk out of Cowboys stadium winners.

Final score:  Green Bay 31, Dallas 24

The playoff games are going to get more exciting, competitive and fun to watch; I promise.  After Wildcard Weekend kicked off with a thud….the Machine did go 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS)….the Divisional Round has much more enticing matchups…..the exception being this dud:

Houston @ New England (-16), Saturday, 8:15 pm

Is it me, or does it feel like New England has finished the last 15 seasons with a 13-3 record (or better), with a first round bye, with home field throughout and inevitably end up hosting the AFC Championship.  I’m not even going to bother looking up how close I am, and not because I’m lazy (well, sort of because I’m lazy), but mostly because I know I’m close.

So instead of doing an analysis of both teams, and how they match-up, and who will defend whom and yadda yadda yadda, I just want to focus on one thing: -16.

Can this Patriots team really cover 16 points?!  Can the Texas keep it within two freaking touchdowns?!

I’m taking the points, because it is too many.  The Patriots will win, make no mistake.  But even if they win 27-12, it’s not enough to cover.

Look, we all know the storylines, right?  The 9-7 Texans basically slept walked through their game against the reeling Raiders, who were down to their third string rookie quarterback making his first ever start.  Not exactly a confidence booster.  Speaking of third string quarterbacks, it was the Jacoby Brissett (remember him, yeah, me neither) lead Patriots that shutout the Texans earlier this year in Foxborough.  The betting public hasn’t forgotten that game, and has wagered a considerable amount of bank on the Pats this week.  Nearly 85% of the money has come in on NE -16.  So, if the Patriots do win big and cover the spread, Vegas will take a beating.  It’ll be a bloodbath.  Guess what, the only thing more bankable than the Patriots in Foxborough in January is Vegas winning money all the time.

This is getting old

I’m picturing a cold, frozen field.  The Patriots win the coin toss and Hoodie defers, because he always freaking defers.  Osweiler looks lost and the Texans go 3-and-out.  The Patriots start with excellent field positions, because they always have excellent freaking field position.  They dink and dunk, complete their first 7 passes, flawlessly execute a hurry-up quarterback sneak on 3-and-1 picking up 3 yards and eventually score a touchdown because they always freaking…..okay, you get the drift.  But after they build their two TD lead they start hammering away with Lego Blount.  They are effective at running the ball, which shortens the game (and makes a significant blowout less likely).  Now, all we need is one or two scoring drives from Brock.  I know, it’s a tall task, but not unreasonable.  Maybe the Texans defense didn’t forget their embarrassing Week 3 performance and manage to get some pressure on Brady.  Maybe they score a special teams touchdown.  There are plenty of ways they can be down by 20 points and come up with a backdoor cover (hey-oh).

So there it is.  Any given Sunday (or Saturday Night).

New England 31, Houston 17

Another AFC playoff game, another team starting a backup quarterback.  Woof.  Ginger King was right; can we just skip to the part where the Patriots win the AFC?  And how long after Belichick retires until they change the name of the Lamar Hunt trophy?

Miami @ Pittsburgh (-11), Sunday, 1:05 pm

This game is a rematch of Week 6, were the 7 point home underdog Miami Dolphins upset the Pittsburgh Steelers, 30-15.  That game was the turning point of the Dolphins season.  Entering the game with a 1-4 record, the Dolphins won 9 of the next 11 to secure a playoff berth.

Of course, there are quite a few differences between then and now.  For starters, it’ll be about 70 degrees colder.  The Dolphins can downplay the weather all they want, but they are kidding themselves if they think it won’t affect them.  Of far bigger concern is the Week 15 MCL injury that has sidelined starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill.  Tannehill doesn’t exactly scare defenses, but he was quietly putting together a solid season (3,000 yards, 19 TDs) under the tutelage of quarterback-whisperer Adam Gase.  Next man up is journeyman Matt Moore.  Best descripted as a “gamer”; meaning he isn’t shy to throw it around…whether it’s his guys or the other team catching it is another story.

Where’s the clipboard?

The Steelers are going to be looking for redemption from the Week 6 matchup as it was their worst offensive game of the season.  Ben Roethlisberger got knocked out of that game early and missed an offensive series before returning, but was never quite right.  As a result, the entire offense was in a funk and never could snap out.  These are highly uncharacteristic stat lines:

Week 6

Roethlisberger :  19/34, 189 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Bell: 10 attempts, 53 yards, 0 TD

Brown:  4 catches, 39 yards, 0 TD

The Steelers have been red-hot, winners of their last seven games.  They are 6-2 at Heinz Field and average nearly a touchdown more at home as opposed to the road.  They will move the ball on the Dolphins and score points.  The Dolphins won’t be able to shutdown Ben, Bell and Brown this time around.

Defensively the Steelers should sellout to stop the run and force Matt Moore to beat them.  Jay Ajaji gashed them for over 200 yards.  Ajaji has a bit of Beastmode in him and seems to get stronger as the game wears on.

The house that Ketchup built

I don’t think the Dolphins can keep pace with the Steelers at Heinz Field.  I’ve got the Steelers cruising to victory, putting them in Arrowhead next week.

Final Score: Pittsburgh 34, Miami 17

It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish!  Welcome to the 2017 NFL Playoffs.  The kickoff game isn’t exactly get-your-popcorn-ready material.  This unwatchable match-up (which probably pulls twice the rating of the Cubs/Indians World Series Game 7) features the team that drafted Khalil Mack (Oakland Raiders) and the team that should have drafted Khalil Mack (Houston Texans).  Vegas agrees,, this game has the lowest total (37) of the weekend….but hey, it does have the smallest spread (HOU -3.5), so maybe it’ll be close?!

STAR POWER

A lot of people thought the Texans were crazy when they signed Brock Osweiler to an $72 million dollar contract in the offseason…..and those people were right.  Through 15 games, “B.O.” completed under 60% of his passes, threw more picks (12) than touchdowns (11) , took 27 sacks and fumbled a handful of times.  In other words, good enough to win the AFC South!

Not surprisingly, the Texans skill players collectively turned in a down year.  Lamar Miller barely cracked a 1,000 yards; a threshold DeAndre Hopkins couldn’t even reach.  Safe to say Nuk wasn’t on many fantasy championship rosters this year.

LOL

Despite losing their best player before the season began, defense is the name of the game in Houston.  JJ Watt was too busy creating his own logo and filming Bose commercials to train in the offseason and promptly blew out his back, missing the entire season.  Ironically, if you look at his logo upside down you can kind of see an inflated ego. #hiddenmessage.  That has left the 2014 No. 1 overall pick, Jadeveon Clowney as the face of the defense.  For his career, The Clown has amassed 72 tackles, 10.5 sacks and 1 forced fumble….or what we like to call a “down year” for All-World Khalil Mack (University at Buffalo shout out).

The Texans defense ranks first in yards allowed.   Or is it last in yards allowed??  Either way, teams had trouble moving the ball for positive gains against the Texans.  I guess they can hang their oversized cowboy hats on that…..oh and the fact that they don’t have to face….

Might want to mix in a few squats to the workout routine, just saying.

Derek Carr was in the MVP discussions before he broke his leg in half on Christmas Eve.  Not to be outdone, backup Matt “The other Red Rifle” McGloin broke his McShoulder the following week.  To top it all off, starting Left Tackle Donald Penn has been ruled out with a knee injury.  When the Raiders move to Vegas any chance they change their logo to a black cat breaking a mirror with an upside down horseshoe under a ladder?

Soulless embrace. #14

Truthfully, the McGloin injury is a blessing in disguise considering he’s 1-7 as a starter.  That’s bad, right?  The Raiders at least get to trot out the “element of surprise” in 4^th round rookie Connor Cook.  The Texans are literally going to have to breakdown his college tape to game plan for him.  Have fun with that.

The 3.5 point spread makes a ton of sense.  The Raiders are going to protect Cook as much as possible (translation: run the ball) knowing that the Houston offense isn’t exactly going to blow the doors off the hinges.  Turnover machine Osweiler will see to that.  This game feels like it is going to come down to a fluky special teams play or a missed extra point.

Since I’m practically the president of the Khalil Mack fan club (is it that obvious?), my pick here may be slightly biased, but I’ll take the RAIDERS +3.5.

Final Score: Houston 24, Oakland 22