Mock 3.0 (April 19, 2014)

Alright, we’re 3 weeks from the Draft, and things are really starting to change.  The question to answer now:  how far will Teddy Bridgewater fall?  Not if…but how far.  That’s right, the consensus #1 overall pick for the past 6 months is now sliding out of the Top 10, and possibly the first round.  Seriously, how do you have a bad pro day?  Anyway, let’s get to it.

Mock 3.0 (1 of 5)No changes for the top 2 picks, as it looks like Jadaveon is a lock to go #1.  Unless St. Louis trades out of the #2 pick (which I’d peg at 50/50) Sammy Watkins looks like their pick…not bad, considering Sammy’s drawing comparisons as a fast Larry Fitzgerald.  Big change comes at #3, as the QB-needy Jaguars will shun a QB and go with Kahlil Mack.  Why?  The Jags are more than just a QB-needy team…they are a [insert position]-needy team.  Plus, is there a QB worth the #3 pick in this draft?  The Jags have reached for a QB before (see Gabbert, Blaine) and you don’t want to reach at 3.  Likewise, the QB-needed Browns will also forgo a QB.  I think the Browns believe in Brian Hoyer just enough to give him a chance.  Da Raiders picking Robinson is a really smart pick, which is probably why they won’t do it.

Mock 3.0 (2 of 5)

Alright, the first QB goes off the Board at #8, as the Vikings take UCF stud Blake Bortles.  Blake seems to have risen to the top of the QB class.  He’s got prototypical size, and no baggage.  He’s the safe pick.  Mathews is thought of in many circles as the best OL in the Draft, and would come at a steal for Tampa at 7.  The Bills, missing out on Robinson and Mathews, go to their next need, and provide EJ Manual with a legit receiving threat in Eric Ebron (think Vernon Davis minus the diva).  Roid Rage has a mild hard-on just thinking about Manual to Ebron.

Mock 3.0 (3 of 5)

And the Johnny Football/Teddy Bridgwater fall begins.  Note:  if one (or both) get past Tennessee at 11, it’s going to be a long wait).  The G-Men stick with Lewan at 12, the question is whether he’ll be there (please be there).  I think St. Louis will go Offense/Offense with their first round picks, giving Sam Bradford no excuse (until his inevitable Week 6 separated shoulder).  Defense should dominate the middle round of this draft.  Chicago would love it if Donald were still around, but if not, hybrid-stud Anthony Barr should fit perfectly in their defense.

Mock 3.0 (4 of 5)

Finally, Johnny Football finds a home in Arizona…but Teddy still sweats it out in the green room.  Justin Gilbert provides great value for Miami at #19.  The run on WR also begins…Philly would be wise to replace Desean Jackson with Marqise Lee (but wait, he’s from SoCal, aren’t they all gang bangerz???).

Mock 3.0 (5 of 5)

Wait…Teddy falls out of the first round???  It’s looking that way.  Roid Rage has him at #5…but he’s a whore for QBs, and also thinks Derek Carr could find his into the first round.  There’s a shot of beamer on that one, son!  New England jumps out at me as a team that would love to trade out of the first round and let someone jump back in to the first and maybe grab Teddy.  There’s a lot of depth to this draft, and many big names still left.

Mock Draft 3.0 (April 16, 2014)

We are a mere 3 weeks away from the eve of the 79th Annual NFL Players Selection Meeting (that’s the official name….Wikipedia bitches!)  This draft is going to have quite a few fireworks, particularly in the Top Ten.  There are a few blue chip studs that every team would like to roster (don’t buy the Jadeveon Clowney has never worked a hard day in his life reports one bit).  On the flip side, this draft is extremely deep.  There are terrific prospects to be had in the middle rounds.  There will be some teams that are aggressive and go get “their guy”; while others try their damndest to trade down and stockpile picks (here is looking at you, Hoodie).  Enough chit-chat, on to the picks…..Rev3_1-3

 Clowney would have been the hands down No. 1 pick in last years draft.  There isn’t a QB prospect worthy enough to pass on this guy.  As I stated above, I’m not buying into these made up negative claims about his work ethic; at the same time I’m not going to enshrine him in Canton before he even plays.

Sammy Watkins is a stud.  He dominated SEC competition at age 18.  If the Rams can’t pull off a trade, he should be the pick.  Picks 2 and 3 are up for grabs in terms of trading up.  In this scenario I have Atlanta trading up to the 3-hole to grab Mack.

Rev3_4-10

Four picks in and I have two pass-rushers and two pass-catchers.  This is where the draft gets really interesting as the Jags, Browns, Raiders, and Vikings are QB-desperate (you could even make an argument for the Bucs as well).  Who starts the QB run?  How highly do teams covet these QBs?  Can they be had later in the first round?  Second round?  In my mock the Raiders get first crack.  I’ll let Teddy’s film speak for itself and try to erase his horrific pro-day from my memory (a few more huffs ought to do it).  Bridgewater gives them a chance.  He’ll have the opportunity to learn (how not to throw pick-6’s) from Matt Schaub.  Again, I have Atlanta and Jacksonville swapping picks in the first, so Bortles is a Jaguar in this scenario.  Sure, Gus Bradley would love to have Clowney or Mack on his defense, but this has got to be the most QB-needy franchise in the league.  Ebron and Donald continue to rise up my mock drafts (I had them at 23 and 25, respectively in Mock 2.0).  Ebron is a big-bodied, athletic mismatch.  It gives the Bucs a second option in the passing game after Vincent Jackson.  Minnesota is a complete wildcard.  I think they’d jump at the chance to draft Bortles and I think Norv Turner probably has a mild hard-on for Carr.  But is 8 overall too high for David’s kid brother?  I think so.  Then again: Matt Cassel, Christian Ponder.  Barf!  Mike Zimmer is a no nonsense, old school, defensive minded coach.  He grabs the disruptive interior force in Donald.  For the record, I think Jake Matthews and Greg Robinson are better prospects than any of the guys drafted last year (and there were 4 OTs drafted in the first 11 picks last year); so for the Bills and Lions to get them at 9 and 10 is great value.

Rev3_11-16

Johnny Football ladies and gentlemen!  Whizz knows as well as anyone that you have to have a QB to win in this league.  Ginger keeps harping on the fact that if the Giants can protect Eli they will basically win the Super Bowl.  Fine.  Enter Taylor Lewan.  St. Louis grabs Watkins and Clinton-Dix.  Their roster is loaded with talent (thank you Dan Synder).  Will there be a QB with more pressure to succeed this season than Sam Bradford?  Chicago and Dallas are both searching for able-bodied defensive linemen; which means Jerry will probably end up draft a Guard.

Rev3_17-23

 There are some serious playmakers available in the second half of the first round.  I love the player-team pairs for this group of picks.

Rev3_24-32

I really think you’ll see Derek Carr go somewhere in this range. I know I keep harping on the depth of this class, but for a good reason, check out these notable missing prospects: Jace Aramo, David Yankey, Brandon Cooks, Ryan Shazier, Jordan Matthews, Stephon Tuitt, Cyrus Kouandjio.

Meet the best football player in Buffalo - including anyone on the Bills!

The Man!

Mock Draft 2.0

We’re almost one month away from the Draft (can you feel the excitement?!?).  Free agency is coming to a close, and draft boards are starting to take form.  You’ll notice some big changes from my Mock 1.0, due mainly to free agency and Roid Rage’s constant nagging that no RBs will be drafted in the first round.   

Anyway, on to the picks.  And thanks to our boys at KFFL for putting together the Draft Machine…we highly recommend you head over there and put one together.

KFFL Mock 2.0 (pt. 1 of 2)

Analysis:  For now, I got Jadaveon at #1.  He should be the #1 pick…but there are rumbllings Houston’s going to pick a QB.  Sorry, but there is no consensus #1 QB.  There is no Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, or Cam Newton in this Draft.  You cannot reach with the number one pick, when you do, bad things happen (see Russel, JaMarcus).  Also, Sammy Watkins has flies up the board to #2, and if St. Louis can then grab a tackle #13, Sam Bradford will be the happiest man in the NFL.  Not sure about 3 QBs in the Top 10…I really think one of them will slip out of the Top 10.  Buffalo would be estatic if Mathews falls to them at #9.  G-Men will give a long hard look at Mike Evans and Eric Ebron…but if Lewan is sitting there, protecting Eli wins out. 

Ok, on to the second half:

KFFL Mock 2.0 (pt. 2 of 2)

Analysis:  Cowboys have to go DL, and would love it if Aaron Donald were still on the Board, but Timmy Jernigan isn’t a bad consolation prize.  Green Bay would bull rush the podium if Ebron falls to them…ditto with Philadelphia as Marquise Lee fits perfectly in Chip Kelly’s offense (and has no known gang affiliations).  If Cleveland goes QB at #4, they will have to go WR at #26 to give their newest bust savior a weapon to throw to.

Roid Rage sufficiently bullied me into having no RBs in the first round, but I’ll wager a shot of Beamer that one sneaks in.  Thank God we’ll have a Mock 3.0 next week.

Mock Draft 2.0

With free agency signings winding down and the misinformation machine in overdrive, we’re entering the final stretch of Mock Draft Season!  Below is my latest Round One Mock Draft put together using KFFL’s Mock Draft Machine.  In the category of Awesome-ways-to-kill-work-productivity goes, this is at the top of the list!  I highly recommend.

On to the picks………….

Thank you, KFFL!

Thank you, KFFL!

Analysis:  I know I’m not the only one that has had Clowney penciled in as the top pick for over a year now.  He is special.  It would take a QB prospect the likes of Andrew Luck for me to bypass Clowney.  In a league predicated on match-ups, Clowney and Watt on the same defensive front is borderline criminal!

I’ve got a combined 6 DL and LBs in the first half of this class.  That speaks not only to the depth of the position, but the premium placed on disruptive defenders.

Ultimately I think Mike Evans goes in the Top 10.  6’5″ – 231 lbs.  with 4.5s speed just doesn’t grow on trees.  The WR depth in this class is incredible.  There are going to be WR bargains to be had in the 2nd and 3rd round.

Round 1, Part 2 (Mock 2.0)

Ozzie Newsome and Ted Thompson continue doing what they always do: patiently wait for a super talent player to fall to them. Gilbert is in a dead heat with Dennard to be the first CB drafted this year.  He is a good get at 17.

Derek “you have to believe me, I’m way better than my brother” Carr makes it 4 QBs in the first round.

Like I said when I was shitting all over Ginger’s Mock 1.0, I’ll take the under on RB’s going in the first round this year.  And that’s not necessarily a knock on Hyde or Mason, both of whom I personally enjoy watching and think will be big time contributors at the NFL level, but more of a statement on the environment of the league today.  It’s a passing-first (second, and third) league.  QB, Pass-rusher, CB, OL and WR are much more valuable than running backs.  The Texans and Vikings have had the most productive running backs in the league for a few years in Arian Foster and Adrian Peterson, and they are both picking in the Top 10.

I'll take this guy and you can have the guy that has a good "work ethic"

I’ll take this guy and you can have the guy that has a good “work ethic”

Mock Draft 1.1

Draft 2014If you have been preparing and/or studying mock drafts prior to March 11, 2014, The Machine’s here to tell you’ve wasted your time (do you hear us McShay and Kiper?).  Why?  Because mocking before free agency starts is worthless.  Teams will first fill their needs through free agency, then the Draft.  Need proof?  Check how many pre-March 11 drafts had the Patriots taking a corner.  Almost all of them.  Now that Revis Island is heading to Foxboro, do you think the Pats will address that in the first round?  Same with Detroit.  Everyone had them taking a WR, but now that they have Golden Tate to play opposite Megatron, they will also fill other needs.

But we digress.  Anyway, here is The Machine’s first official mock draft of 2014.  We will be updating as free agency continues and pro-days are held, so check back for the latest updates in our award-winning Drafts.

Update [3/19/2014]: Can you imagine a world ruled by gingers? Scary thought, right?  It would probably look something like this:

Houston, we have a problem.....(and it's not who to take first overall)

Houston, we have a problem…..(and it’s not who to take first overall)

A ginger-only mock draft is almost as frightening!  That’s why Roid Rage is here to add a bit of sanity to this mock draft.  I’ll play the Lone Ranger to GK’s Tonto!  Saddle up…..

Pick/Team Ginger King Roid Rage
1. Houston Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina): QB is tempting (and a need), but is there a QB worthy of begin #1 overall?  No doubt Jadeveon is the best athlete in the draft.  There’s also no doubt defense wins championships (see Seahawks, Seattle).  In the end, Houston cannot pass up the once in a generation DE. Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina):  We’re in agreement with the first pick.  Pairing Clowney with JJ Watt is a match up nightmare for every offense in the league.  If not Clowney, then Bortles.
2. St. Louis Jake Mathews (OT, Texas A&M):
St. Louis is in a prime spot to trade this pick (we’d be surprised if they didn’t).  They have two first round picks (thanks to the steal of a trade they made with Washington).  Apparently, St. Louis is looking to give Sam Bradford one more shot at being “the guy.”  If they stay put, Jake Mathews is a safe pick that will provide instant protection for Sam.
Greg Robinson (OT, Auburn): While I agree with Ginger that OL is a priority, I prefer the upside that Greg Robinson offers.  Much like the 2010 Draft, when (pre-draft) everyone had Russell Okung as the “top tackle” only to see the “higher upside” Razorback Williams go 4th overall, two spots ahead of Russell.
3. Jacksonville Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville): The Jags are in a familiar spot, with their sixth consecutive Top 10 pick.  The Blaine Gabbert Experience has ended, and QB is the most pressing need.  Question is: which one?  My money’s on the one that’s the most NFL ready.  And that’s Teddy Bridgewater.  Blake Bortles (QB, UCF):  Gus Bradley will be pounding on the table for Clowney (should he fall) or Khalil Mack (should he fall).  But given the state of the franchise, QB has to be the pick.  Bortles has the size, arm talent, awareness and willingness to hang in the pocket to be cornerstone pick.  Plus, Lindsey Duke!  God. Damn.
4. Cleveland Johnny Manziel (QB, Texas A&M): Cleveland’s in the same boat in Jacksonville (as if Cleveland needed another reason to be depressed).  The Brandon Weeden Experience is over, and this organization needs a spark.  Who better than man-whore Johnny Football?  Johnny Manziel (QB, Texas A&M): I actually like Brian Hoyer, but his largest support (Mike Lombardi) was chased out of town along with the rest of the coaching staff and front office.  Johnny Football makes this franchise relevant.  Welcome to Cleveland.
 

Show me the money!

Show me the money!

5. Oakland Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson):
Sammy Watkins stock continues to rise.  Mark my words:  he’s going to be a Top 5 pick.  I could really make an argument for St. Louis taking him #2.  But if he’s here at 5, Da Raiders will not be able to pass him up.  The ghost of Al Davis lives on. 
Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson):  Ginger has been on this kids bandwagon since his high school days; mainly because he has a thing for high school boys, but also because Watkins is a freak!  He’ll have a tough time developing into a #1 WR, but that has everything to do with Oakland and nothing to do with Sammy.  This pick is Al Davis approved.
6. Atlanta Anthony Barr (DE, UCLA): Atlanta must go defense here.  They were exposed last year…big time.  Christ, Geno Smith led a game winning drive against them.  They need to get younger quick.  Khalil Mack is tempting, but their bigger need as at the ends.  Khalil Mack (LB, Buffalo): Mack is the superior prospect to Barr.  Hell, you can debate the merits of Mack with Clowney if you’d like.  UB’s finest!
7. Tampa Bay Khalil Mack (LB, Buffalo):
If Mack is still on the board, Tampa takes about 3 seconds to make this pick.  Hitler Youth Man of the Year Greg Schiano is gone, as is Darrelle Revis (we told you that trade was awful).  Anyway, Mack will remind everyone of Derrick Brooks, and will instantly become the leader on defense.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville): This pick seems weird, right?  But this could be the perfect landing spot for both player and team.  The Bucs can role with Josh McCown as the steady veteran and give bridgewater a year of grooming (and weight training).  Or, a dark horse (Tennessee, Arizona, KC) could move in front of the Vikings to grab perhaps the best QB of this class.
 

Meet the best football player in Buffalo - including anyone on the Bills!

Meet the best football player in Buffalo – including anyone on the Bills!

8. Minnesota Blake Bortles (QB, UCF): Resigning Matt Cassel is not the long term answer, but he does give the Vikings time to bring someone in to groom.  The man would be Blake Bortles.  He has the prototypical size for a QB, and the hottest girlfriend in the Draft. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama): Last years draft proved that Rick Spielman is a slave to his board.  He’ll take the best player available, either Clinton-Dix or Anthony Barr.  Don’t be surprised to see HHCD go this high.  Playmaking safetys with good range are highly valuable in today’s league.  Mar Barron went #7 overall in 2012.  The Saints just gave Jarius Byrd $50 million.
9. Buffalo Greg Robinson (OT, Auburn):
Robinson is giving Mathews a run for his money as the top offensive lineman.  As the Draft gets closer, it’s very likely that Robinson will be gone by now.  But Buffalo could sure use an upgrade on the line. 
Jake Mathews (OT, Texas A&M): The Bills land a stud OT in my mock too.  Matthews paired with Cordy Glenn should provide the Bills with stud bookend tackles for the next decade.  Although the Bills probably won’t pay either when their rookie deals expire.
 
10. Detroit Justin Gilbert (CB, Oklahoma St): The Lions need a shutdown corner.  This is a perfect need/value pick, as Gilbert is the consensus top corner in the Draft. Darqueze Dennard (CB, Michigan St.): Not only do we differ on the top OT, but also the top rated corner.  Dennard’s game tape is too impressive; he’ll be the first corner taken this year.
11. Tennessee Timmy Jernigan (NT, Florida St.):
If one of the Top 3 QBs slide, the Titans will think long and hard about ending the Jake Locker Experience.  Shoring up the interior of the defense isn’t a bad consolation prize, as Jernigan is a beast.
Justin Gilbert (CB, Oklahoma St): And the Cornerback run is on!  This CB class is deep, so it could come down to the type of scheme the team plays on running.  Gilbert has the make-up of a number one corner.  The Titans just happen to need one of those!
12. NYG Taylor Lewan (OT, Michigan):
Lewan really raised his stock with his solid performance at the Combine.  The guy’s a mauler, and is the definition of a “play through the whistle” player.  Sure, he’s Richie Incognito 2.0, but the G-Men need to get mean and nasty on the line.  Defensive line is also a need (after losing Tuck in free agency) but the Giant’s recipe for success is clear:  Protect Eli = win.  Don’t protect Eli = lose.  Sometimes, it is that simple.
Anthony Barr (DE, UCLA):
Sorry Eli, but Jerry Reese won’t be able to help himself.  First-round DE’s are this thing.
 

Jesus, he really is Richie 2.0

Jesus, he really is Richie 2.0

13. St. Louis Eric Ebron (TE, North Carolina) Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M)
14. Chicago Aaron Donald (DT, Pittsburgh) Louis Nix (DT, Notre Dame)
15. Pittsburgh Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama) CJ Mosley (LB, Alabama)
16. Dallas Marquise Lee (WR, USC) Dominique Easley (DT, Florida)
17. Baltimore CJ Mosley (LB, Alabama) Aaron Donald (DT, Pittsburgh)
18. NYJ Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M) Eric Ebron (TE, North Carolina)
19. Miami Zach Martin (OT, Notre Dame) Taylor Lewan (OT, Michigan):
20. Arizona Darqueze Dennard (CB, Michigan St.) Timmy Jernigan (NT, Florida St.):
21. Green Bay Jace Amaro (TE, Texas Tech) Ryan Shazier (LB, Ohio State)
22. Philadelphia Calvin Pryor (FS, Louisville) Dee Ford (DE, Auburn)
23. Kansas City Brandon Cooks (WR, Oregon St.) Odell Beckham (WR, LSU)
24. Cincinnati Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio St.) Jason Verrett (CB, TCU)
25. San Diego Louis Nix (DT, Notre Dame) Zach Martin (OL, Notre Dame)
26. Cleveland Tre Mason (RB, Auburn) Ra’shede Hageman (DT, Minnesota)
27. New Orleans Vic Beasley (DE, Clemson) Brandon Cooks (WR, Oregon St.)
28. Carolina Odell Beckham (WR, LSU) Jace Amaro (TE, Texas Tech)
29. New England Kony Ealy (DE, Missouri) Kelvin Benjamin (WR, Florida St.)
30. San Francisco Carlos Hyde (RB, Ohio St.) Will Sutton (DT, Arizona)
31. Denver Ryan Shazier (LB, Ohio St.) Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio St.)
32. Seattle Kelvin Benjamin (WR, Florida St.) Marquise Lee (WR, USC)

 

Mock Draft (v5.0) – Brian’s Final

NFL Draft

Lock and load………..

1

Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel OL Texas A&M
Analysis:  The Chiefs have been locked into this pick for some time now as evident with the release of starting RT Eric Winston and the impending trade of LT Brandon Albert.

2

Jacksonville Jaguars: Dion Jordan OLB Oregon
Analysis:  The Jaguar’s and Raider’s both have wily football guys calling the shots these days and they’ve put their best foot forward in creating a trade-up market for Eric Fisher.  Not going to happen at #2.  The Jags grab perhaps the most versatile defender in this draft.

3

Oakland Raiders Eric Fisher OT C. Michigan
Analysis:  I think McKenzie gets the Lions to trade-up two spots (similar to Minnesota/Cleveland with Trent Richardson last year) to secure the rights to Fisher.

4

Philadelphia Eagles Barkevious Mingo DE LSU
Analysis:  First of all, Chip Kelly is calling the shots here.  And Chip is so confident…cough, arrogant, cough…that his offensive system is superior to anything the NFL has ever seen that his only concern is building a shutdown defense.  They go defensive heavy in this draft; here they grab an explosive edge defender.

5

Detroit Lions Star Lotulelei DT Utah
Analysis:  Again, this would be the Raiders selection.  They need help just about every where.  But they start with a Haloti Ngata type of player.

6

Cleveland Browns Geno Smith QB WVU
Analysis:  Lombardi is a firm believer in positional value and no position on the football field has more value than the QB.  I have to believe Rob Chudzinski sees a little bit of Cam Newton in Smith’s game.

7

Arizona Cardinals Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma
Analysis:  Biggest need for the Cardinals.  Although only starting 11 games at LT, Johnson is ridiculously athletic and offers emmense upside.

8

Buffalo Bills Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse
Analysis:  I’m totally buying the Syracuse connection here.  New regimes equal new QBs.  Marrone knows Nassib better than any talent evaluator in the NFL.

9

NY Jets Ezekiel Ansah DE BYU
Analysis:  This kid had gobs of potential.  Rex gets his passer rusher.

10

Tennessee Titans Dee Milliner CB Alabama
Analysis:  Hard to come up with a scenario where Milliner slips out of the Top 10; this is his floor.  I think Miami (after completing a trade for Albert) moves up to this spot.

11

San Diego Chargers Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri
Analysis:  I think a team trades up at this spot for Richardson’s services.

12

Miami Dolphins Sharrif Floyd DT Florida
Analysis:  The DT’s in this class are impressive.  I think there are teams in love with all three of these guys (Star, Richardson, Floyd).

13

New York Jets Kenny Vaccaro S Texas
Analysis: With Vaccaro, Jones, Austin and Eifert still on the board I do not think the Jets will have a hard time finding a trade partner. 

14

Carolina Panthers Tavon Austin WR WVU
Analysis: I think the Panthers could be one of the teams to move up a few spots to grab Richardson/Floyd.  So this could easily be Miami’s or San Diego’s pick.  Regardless, all three teams could be in play for Austin.

15

New Orleans Saints Jarvis Jones LB Georgia
Analysis:  This kid is a gamer, critics be damned!

16

St. Louis Rams Arthur Brown LB Kansas State
Analysis:  Undersized perhaps, but I think this is the future of NFL LB’s.  This kid will be an impact player.

17

Pittsburgh Steelers Tyler Eifert TE ND
Analysis:  Would not be surprised if he went top 10.  Dual TE sets (with athletic TEs) are so hard to defend (See: New England).

18

Dallas Cowboys Chance Warmack OG Alabama
Analysis:  Jerry lands a “big name” and a need position.  More importantly they are getting a heck of a football player.  OG’s just don’t carry the positional value to justify a top 15 pick. 

19

NY Giants Tank Carradine DE Florida State
Analysis:  I can really see Tank in a 49ers or Falcons jersey.  The Giants won’t pass on his talents.

20

Chicago Bears Bjoren Werner DE Florida State
Analysis:  Perfect fit.

21

Cincinnati Bengals Jonathan Cyprien S FIU
Analysis:  As talented as Vaccaro in my opinion.

22

St. Louis Rams DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson
Analysis:  St. Louis hasn’t been shy about showing their interest in Hopkins.

23

Minnesota Vikings Johnathan Cooper OG UNC
Analysis:  A terrific player, but again, OG’s just don’t warrant high picks.

24

Indianapolis Colts DJ Fluker OT Alabama
Analysis: The Colts absolutely have to protect Luck.  While I don’t think they can plug Fluker in as a LT (and the just signed RT Cherilus to big time money) I think Fluker could be a dominate guard.

25

Minnesota Vikings Xavier Rhodes CB Florida State
Analysis:  Helps improve a weak secondary.

26

Green Bay Packers Datone Jones DE UCLA
Analysis:   Great value pick and somebody who can contribute right away on defense.

27

Houston Texans DJ Hayden CB HOU
Analysis:  A local kid, but don’t let that fool you, he is an extremely talented CB.  Rumor has it he may give Milliner a run for his money.

28

Denver Broncos Jamar Taylor CB Boise St.
Analysis:  A physical corner to pair with Bailey.

29

New England Patriots Sly Williams DT NC
Analysis:  He could be a force on their D-line.  Would be surprised to see NE draft here.  Trading down is the most likely scenario.

30

Atlanta Falcons Matt Barkley QB USC
Analysis:  A team will jump back in to grab the guy they like.  Could be Manual, but I think Barkley is too good of a prospect to pass up.  Most likely to trade up: Jags, Jets, Oakland.

31

San Francisco 49ers Justin Hunter WR Tennessee
Analysis:  Niners could use a solid #2 WR.  Keenan Allen will be in the mix too, but testing positive for weed at the Combine shows a complete lack of judgment and responsibility (dude, toke up after the Combine).  This likely drops him to the second round.

32

Baltimore Ravens Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee
Analysis:  Too much talent to pass up here.  Needs to be coached up quite a bit, but the potential is there (reminds me of Stephen Hill, who was the sixth WR taken last year at #43)   

2013 NFL Draft – By the Numbers

As we inch closer to the draft (are we there yet?!) The Machine is busy tracking, among other things, two phenomena that tend to occur this time of the year: (1) the massive amount of misinformation being reported (generated first and foremost by NFL front offices) and (2) the overabundance of mock drafts.  Draftniks alike can’t seem to help themselves this time of the year, posting new and updated mocks daily.  You all have a problem.  And we love you for it!

There seems to be two schools of thought when it comes to mocking the draft.  The traditionalists prefer the straight-up mock draft.  No trading.  Each team gets their turn and that’s it.  The rationale being that mocking the draft is hard enough, mixing in the variable of trades makes the task damn near impossible.  The second group, the younger generation if you will, theorize trade scenarios based on projected player availability, team needs and team philosophy.

Realistically, the truth lies somewhere in-between.  Wheeling and dealing will always be part of the draft, and if last years dizzying pace was an indication (14 slots swapped in the first round alone) this year will feature some thrilling blockbusters (we’re looking at you Revis/Tampa Bay….or perhaps a dark horse team?!)

However, I’ve got a real issue with some of the trades being mocked.  For example, draftniks seem all too comfortable with the Bills drafting a WR/DL/CB with the No. 8 overall pick, justifying that the team can take a QB at No.  41, or even trade back into the bottom of the first round and grab their QB.  They fail to consider that the Bills only have six total picks; not exactly a cache of ammunition.  Given their (lack of) talent, they can ill afford to give up the picks necessary to jump from No. 41 into the low 20’s.  On the contrary, I’d expect the Bills to be actively shopping both the No. 8 and No. 41 pick in an effort to acquire more picks.

This lead The Machine to take a closer look at each teams draft pick status heading into the draft to identify which teams might be looking, and more importantly have the resources to move up in the draft.  Here is the breakdown, with some interesting observations to follow:

2013 NFL Draft by the Numbers     
Team              Total Picks                    Top 100 Picks
San Francisco

13

5

Baltimore

12

3

Miami

11

5

Minnesota

11

4

Atlanta

11

3

Cincinnati

10

4

Seattle

10

2

Houston

9

4

Tennessee

9

4

Philadelphia

9

3

Kansas City

8

4

St. Louis

8

4

Detroit

8

3

Green Bay

8

3

New York

8

3

Pittsburgh

8

3

Tampa Bay

8

3

Jacksonville

7

4

Arizona

7

3

New York (J)

7

3

Oakland

7

3

San Diego

7

3

Cleveland

7

2

Washington

7

2

Buffalo

6

3

Dallas

6

3

Denver

6

3

Indianapolis

6

2

New England

5

3

Carolina

5

2

Chicago

5

2

New Orleans

5

2

 

Totals: 254

100

     
  •  Last years Super Bowl teams, San Francisco and Baltimore, account for 25 total picks, or approximately 10% of the picks in this years draft.
  • 7 out of the top 8 teams (in terms of draft picks) made the playoffs last year.  Miami being the lone exception.  Conversely, only 3 out of the bottom 8 teams made the playoffs.  This is not a coincidence.  Good team/roster management includes keeping and acquiring draft picks.
  • Speaking of Miami, if this offseason has shown us anything it’s that Jeff Ireland is GM-ing for his job.  We’d expect that trend to continue throughout the draft with Miami combining picks to move up the draft board.  This is a dangerous way to build a team.  We like the odds that Ireland is unemployed this time next year.
  • SF and Seattle have been in a bot of an arms race in terms of collecting talent.  The NFC West crown is up for grabs.  Both teams have plenty of ammunition to trade up to get “their” guy.  I expect SF to be particularly aggressive (DL/CB/WR).
  • Atlanta is 1 of 7 teams with double-digit picks.  Dimitroff has shown a penchant for being aggressive on draft day (Julio Jones).  Atlanta is a candidate to move up in the top ten.
  • I think Oakland, Carolina, Buffalo and Indianapolis will actively look to trade down when possible.  Although, I think Bills and the Colts will target a QB and OL, respectively, in the first round.
  • New Orleans is interesting in that they are tied with for the fewest picks (5) but also must feel they are close to competing for the division title (3 years removed from SB and getting Sean Payton back).  However, BountyGate has really taken its toll on this roster (particularly) the defense.  The Saints would be wise to trade down early and often this year.
  • It will be interesting to see if Jerry Jones can stay put this year, as he only has 6 picks to work with.

Mock Draft (v4.0) – One Week Warning!

NFL DraftThat’s right, we’re one week from the Main Event!  The Machine is in full mock mode; Roid Rage gets Version 4 kicked off with picks 1-16 and Ginger King rounds out the bottom half: (Leave your comments below).

1

Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel OL Texas A&M
Analysis:  It looks like the Chiefs have moved on from their starting tackles from a year ago, cutting Eric Winston and broadcasting Brandon Albert’s availability (mid-to-low round pick).  So this pick will either be Joeckle or Fisher.  The Machine prefers Fishers upside and nasty demeanor in the trenches.  Joeckle’s no slouch though; he’s the prototypical NFL LT.

2

Jacksonville Jaguars: Dion Jordan OLB Oregon
Analysis:  “Jags are a mess, and need help at every position”.  I couldn’t have said it better myself.  They’d love the opportunity to trade down, but nobody is going to be willing to pay the premium.  Caldwell, Bradley and Khan (the Jaguar brain trust) are all onboard with this selection.

3

Oakland Raiders Star Lotulelei DT Utah
Analysis:  You’ve got to hand it to McKenzie, he isn’t afraid to stick to his guns!  He is yet to find a player he hasn’t wanted to cut (Routt, Seymour, Huff, Kelly, DHB, McClain).  The Raiders have needs at literally every position.  McKenzie grabs the BPA.

4

Philadelphia Eagles Shariff Floyd DT Florida
Analysis:  First of all, Chip Kelly is calling the shots here.  And Chip is so confident…cough, arrogant, cough…that his offensive system is superior to anything the NFL has ever seen that his only concern is building a shutdown defense.  They go defensive heavy in this draft, starting with the Philly kid, Floyd.  Milliner is in the mix here too.

5

Detroit Lions Eric Fisher OL C. Michigan
Analysis:  This seems like a dream scenario for Detroit with the loss of tackles Cherilus (free agency) and Backus (retirement).  However, I think there is a coin flips chance that E. Ansah is the pick here.  They also lost defensive ends Vanden Bosch and Avril this offseason.  What a mess.  In related news, Jim Schwartz will probably be looking for a new job come December.

6

Cleveland Browns Lane Johnson OL Oklahoma
Analysis:  Do I think the Browns draft an offensive linemen with their first pick? No.  But this is the ideal spot for the Dolphins to trade up and snatch Johnson before he falls to the Cardinals.  Johnson is viewed by some as 1C to Joeckle/Fisher this year.  If the Browns don’t trade down, this pick is E. Ansah or B. Mingo all day long (with Geno Smith as a dark horse).  Many people, myself included, think the Browns are putting up a smoke screen (from burning all those Pilot J documents) with these reports that Milliner is their No. 1 priority.  They draft DE/OLB if they stay put.

7

Arizona Cardinals Barkevious Mingo DE LSU
Analysis:  Cards need pressure from the end.  Problem solved (plus best name in the Draft).

8

Buffalo Bills Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse
Analysis:  I’m totally buying the Syracuse connection here.  So much so that the Bills prefer Nassib to Smith and stay true to their board.  They’ll get crucified in the mainstream media in this scenario.  However, a fair amount of talent evaluators (Lande, Cosell, Gruden) have Nassib rated as their No. 1 QB this year.

9

NY Jets Geno Smith QB West Virginia
Analysis:  This should allow the team to abort their collection of dumbster fires- Sanchez, Garrard, Tebow, McElroy, Simms- at QB.  More importantly, Rex will be able to use the “Rookie QB” excuse to buy himself a few more years.

10

Tennessee Titans Dee Milliner CB Alabama
Analysis:  Hard to come up with a scenario where Milliner slips out of the Top 10; this is his floor.

11

San Diego Chargers Tavon Austin WR West Virginia
Analysis:  Sure, the Chargers need offensive linemen in the worst way, but guards and tackles can’t score touchdowns on any given play, from the outside, slot, out of the backfield, returning kicks/punts, etc.  Austin is electric with the ball in his hands.  For his sake (and ours as fans) let’s hope he can hold up through a 16 game schedule.

12

Miami Dolphins Ezekiel Ansah DE BYU
Analysis:  I think the Dolphins jump into the top 8 to grab a OT (from the Browns at 6 in this scenario).  Since I think Ansah could go six to the Browns in the first place, getting him here is an absolute steal and makes the risk a bit more tolerable.

13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Desmond Trufant CB Washington
Analysis: I absolutely feel a CB will get drafted out of the 13 spot.  Whether it’s the Bucs or Jets remains to be seen.

14

Carolina Panthers Kenny Vaccaro S Texas
Analysis: The Panther have neglected the DT spot for years.  Why would this year be any different?  They grab the BPA in the ultra versatile Vaccaro.  His tape vs. Tavon Austin speaks volumes to his abilities.

15

New Orleans Saints Datone Jones DE UCLA
Analysis:  One of my personal favorites in this draft.  Really feel like the Saints move down considering their lack of picks and talent.  Defense is a must, Jones becomes one of their best defensive players.

16

St. Louis Rams Chance Warmack OG ALA
Analysis:  Pains me to see Warmack slip this far; such is the life of OG’s in the NFL (see: David DeCastro last year….#24).  Helps solidify an improving Rams OL.

17

Pittsburgh Steelers Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia
Analysis:  Pittsburgh stays true to its board (and team philosophy) and addresses defense first.  With Harrison gone, this is looking more and more likely.  WR is an option, but (a) the Steelers don’t draftin WRs in the first round and (b) keeping Emmanual Sanders makes this less of a need.

18

Dallas Cowboys Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri
Analysis:  Cowboys will either go OL or DL here.  Jonathon Cooper’s an option, but Richardson provides way too much value here. 

19

NY Giants Bjoern Werner DT Florida State
Analysis:  A Top 5 pick two months ago, Bjoern has slipped down the draft.  He did not help his cause at the Combine, which has likely contributed to his slide.  However, the tape on him is impressive.  Raw, athletic, albeit a little inexperienced.  None of that is a problem for the G-Men, who love taking those ingredients and creating a dominant DE (see:  JPP).

20

Chicago Bears Manti Te’o ILB Notre Dame
Analysis:  Ok we’re buying this (for now).  For all the things wrong with Manti (fake dead girlfriend, horribly exposed during Nat’l Championship game, 4.82 40 which has since dropped into the 4.7s at his pro day) there’s one thing going for him:  he’s a natural born leader.  Alec Ogletree may be the more athletic choice, but Manti fits the role to replace Brian Urlacher.  Even though Lennay HATES cold weather, he makes sense here.

21

Cincinnati Bengals DJ Fluker OL Alabama
Analysis:  The only question is whether DJ will last this long.

22

St. Louis Rams Jonathon Cooper OG North Carolina
Analysis:  Another offensive lineman?  How does that make sense?  Check out the Niners in 2010 (Anthony Davis at 11 and Mike Iupati at 17)  With Warmack, Cooper, and Jake Long, the Rams would arguably have the best line in the league.

23

Minnesota Vikings Alec Ogletree ILB Georgia
Analysis:  Vikes would love it if Alec made it to them here.

24

Indianapolis Colts Tank Carradine DE Florida St.
Analysis: The Colts need to get young on the outside.  Freeney is gone and Robert Mathis is on the wrong side of 30.

25

Minnesota Vikings Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee
Analysis:  Even with Jennings, the Vikes need more weapons for Ponder.

26

Green Bay Packers DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson
Analysis:   Now begins the run on WRs.  They re-signed Clay Mathews which means the focus should be on improving the offense.  Hopkins will soften the blow from losing Jennings.

27

Houston Texans Robert Woods WR USC
Analysis:  A pefect complement to Andre Johnson.  Woods has risen up draft boards and looks certain to go in the late first round.  Doesn’t have jaw dropping speed but catches everything his way and, having played in a pro-style offense at USC, is the most NFL-ready WR in the draft.

28

Denver Broncos Jamar Taylor CB Boise St.
Analysis:  Anyone see that playoff game, particularly the final 33 seconds of the fourth quarter?  Any questions?  Taylor has speed (4.32) and strength (22 reps) and hopefully enough knowledge to know that you don’t let the receiver get behind you for a game tying 70 yard touchdown pass with 30 seconds to go.

29

New England Patriots Margus Hunt DE SMU
Analysis:  Patriots love versatile defenders that can play with a hand down at the line or standing up to drop back.  With either of these last four picks (from NE to Balt) we expect some team in the early second to trade up to grab a qb. 

30

Atlanta Falcons Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame
Analysis:  Who better to learn from than Gonzo?

31

San Francisco 49ers Justin Hunter WR Tennessee
Analysis:  Niners could use a solid #2 WR.  Keenan Allen will be in the mix too, but testing positive for weed at the Combine shows a complete lack of judgment and responsibility (dude, toke up after the Combine).  This likely drops him to the second round.

32

Baltimore Ravens Eric Reid S LSU
Analysis:  For defending Super Bowl Champions, the Ravens have a surprising number of holes to fill.  That will happen when your entire team takes their rings and runs.  Reid will help add some stability in the secondary.   

2013 NFL Draft – Risers and Fallers

NFL DraftWe’re almost two weeks away from the Draft.  The Machine’s busy pouring over game tape and pro day results.  Here’s our list of Top 5 Risers and Fallers. 

Top 5 Risers

  1. Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon.  An afterthought on most draft boards a few months ago, Dion is now on everyone’s radar, and a consensus Top 5 pick (The Machine has him at #2).  Being called the best athlete in the draft will do that for you.
  2. Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia.  Comparisons to Percy Harvin and Desean Jackson have Tavon jockeying to be the first WR off the board.
  3. Star Loutelelei, DT, Utah.  Even when those initial heart rumors surfaced, Star only dropped to the middle of the first round.  Now that those concerns have been alleviated (somewhat) Star is creeping back up to the Top 10. 
  4. Robert Woods, WR, USC.  Despite not having top end speed, Woods catches everything his way, arguably a more important quality for a WR.  He’s a polished receiver that can run any route.  Could he run his way into the first round?
  5. Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise St.  Boise St. is starting to get some recognition on the other side of the ball.  The combo of blazing speed (4.39) and strength (22 reps) have Jamar quickly climbing draft boards.

Honorable Mentions:  Arthur Brown, Justin Hunter, D.J. Hayden, Datone Jones

Top 5 Fallers

  1. Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M.  Damontre is having a DaQuan Bowers like tumble (without the injury) and may be headed out of the first round.  12 reps at the Combine does not bode well.
  2. Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama.  Not being able to fully workout at Bama’s pro day hasn’t done much to assuage concerns about durability.
  3. Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia.  Jarvis rolled the dice and opted not to work out at the Combine, putting everything on his pro day.  The results:  luke warm.  Slow in the 40 (4.92) and character issues are not a good combination.
  4. Mike Glennon, QB, NC State.  Mike has gotten lost in the discussion of “quarterbacks after Geno” and looks to have fallen down to Round 3.
  5. Nickell Robey, CB, USC.  Whoever told Nickell to leave after his junior year should be ashamed (or fired).  He was inconsistent all year, and uninspiring in workouts.  The Machine has him falling to the middle rounds on Day 3.

Honorable Mentions:  Kawaan Short, Tyrann Mathieu, Alex Okafor

2013 Top-5 Draft Prospects by Position

QB

  1. Geno Smith, WVU
  2. Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
  3. Tyler Wilson, Arkansas
  4. Matt Barkley, USC
  5. Zac Dysert, Miami (OH)

RB

  1. Eddie Lacy, Alabama
  2. Giovani Bernard, UNC
  3. Montee Ball, Wisconsin
  4. Johnathon Franklin, UCLA
  5. Le’Veon Bell, Michigan State

WR

  1. Tavon Austin, WVU
  2. Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
  3. Keenan Allen, Cal
  4. Justin Hunter, Tennessee
  5. Robert Woods, USC

TE

  1. Tyler Eifert, ND
  2. Zack Ertz, Stanford
  3. Gavin Escobar, SD State
  4. Travis Kelce, Cincinnati
  5. Vance McDonald, Rice

OT

  1. Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
  2. Luke Joeckle, Texas A&M
  3. Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
  4. DJ Fluker, Alabama
  5. Menelik Watson, Florida State

OG

  1. Chance Warmack, Alabama
  2. Jonathan Cooper, UNC
  3. Larry Warford, Kentucky
  4. Brian Winters, Kent State
  5. Hugh Thorton, Illinois

C

  1. Travis Fredrick, Wisconsin
  2. Barrett Jones, Alabama
  3. Brian Schwenke, Cal
  4. Khaled Holmes, USC
  5. Matt Stankiewitch, Penn State

______________________________________________________________________

DE

  1. Ezekial Ansah, BYU
  2. Bjoern Werner, Florida State
  3. Cornellius Carradine, Florida State
  4. Datone Jones, UCLA
  5. Margus Hunt, Southern Methodist

DT

  1. Star Lotulelei, Utah
  2. Sharrif Floyd, Florida
  3. Sheldon Richardson, Missouri
  4. Sylvester Williams, UNC
  5. Kawaan Short, Purdue

ILB

  1. Kevin Minter, LSU
  2. Manti T’eo, ND
  3. Jon Bostic, Florida
  4. Kiko Alonso, Oregon
  5. AJ Klein, Iowa State

OLB

  1. Dion Jordan, Oregon
  2. Barkevious Mingo, LSU
  3. Jarvis Jones, Georgia
  4. Arthur Brown, Kansas State
  5. Alec Ogletree, Georgia

CB

  1. Dee Milliner, Alabama
  2. Xavier Rhodes, Florida State
  3. Desmond Trufant, Washington
  4. Blidi Wreh-Wilson, Connecticut
  5. Jamar Taylor, Boise State

FS

  1. Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
  2. Eric Reid, LSU
  3. DJ Swearinger, South Carolina
  4. Phillip Thomas, Fresno State
  5. Bacarri Rambo, Georgia

SS

  1. Matt Elam, Florida
  2. Jonathan Cyprien, Florida International
  3. Shamarko Thomas, Syracuse
  4. JJ Wilcox, Georgia Southern
  5. Shawn Williams, Georgia