2015 NFL Mock Draft (Ginger King 2.0)

 

It's almost time!

It’s almost time!

Round 1 Team Pick Position
1 Buccaneers Jameis Winston (FSU) QB
2 Titans Marcus Mariota (Oregon) QB
3 Jaguars Leonard Williams (USC) DL
4 Raiders Kevin White (WVU) WR
5 Redskins Dante Fowler (Florida) EDGE
6 Jets Vic Beasley (Clemson) EDGE
7 Bears Amari Cooper (Alabama) WR
8 Falcons Alvin Dupree (Kentucky) EDGE

 

We're convinced Marcus is going #2.  Question is: to whom?

We’re convinced Marcus is going #2. Question is: to whom?

Ok, some big changes from our Mock 1.0.  Chief among them:  Marcus jumps up to number 2.  Yeah, yeah, he doesn’t fit Ken Whisenhunt’s system.  But the Draft is all about maximizing value.  And while you can’t really trust trade rumors prior to the Draft, we do believe that the Titans will trade out of this spot.  There are several rumored teams (Philly, Cleveland, San Diego) that want to move up.  Tennessee could stockpile picks and still have a mid-first round pick.  Ginger King’s prediction:  San Diego trades up and sends Philip Rivers to Tennessee.  It makes sense for many reasons.

Round 1 Team Pick Position
9 Giants Danny Shelton (Washington) DT
10 Rams Brandon Scherff (Iowa) OL
11 Vikings Trae Waynes (MSU) CB
12 Browns La’el Collins (LSU) OL
13 Saints Shane Ray (Missouri) EDGE
14 Dolphins Devante Parker (Louisville) WR
15 49ers Arik Armstead (Oregon) DE
16 Texans Todd Gurley (Georgia) RB

 

An undersized DE or oversized LB?

An undersized DE or oversized LB?

The Giants switch lines this round, giving Spagnoulo some much needed muscle on the defensive line.  The Saints would love it if Shane Ray falls to them.  It’s looking more and more likely that the Texans will draft Todd Gurley.  Gurley needs to go to a team where he will not be expected to contribute a full load right away, given his knee injury.  Whatever teams takes him will likely have an aging running back on their roster and looking to start the transition.  This aptly describes the Texans, who could still rely on Arian Foster in the short term and let Gurley ease into the offense.

Round 1 Team Pick Position
17 Chargers Andrus Peat (Stanford) OL
18 Chiefs Ereck Flowers (Miami) OL
19 Browns Malcolm Brown (Texas) DT
20 Eagles Jaelen Strong (ASU) WR
21 Bengals Dorial Green-Beckham (OU) WR
22 Steelers Landon Collins (Alabama) S
23 Lions D.J. Humphries (Florida) OL
24 Cardinals Randy Gregory (Nebraska) DE

 

Puff, puff, give!!!

Puff, puff, give!!!

OL and WR will dominate the first round, and that will be more evident as we get into the second half of the first round.  San Diego, if it decides to hold on to this pick (and Philip Rivers) would do well to try and bolster the offensive line.   Character problems = No problems for the Cincinnati Bengals, as they take a chance on the supremely talented (yet supremely troubled) Dorial Green-Beckham.   Finally, Randy Gregory’s rapid descent should stop with the Cardinals.

 

Round 1 Team Pick Position
25 Panthers M. Gordon (Wisconsin) RB
26 Ravens B. Perriman (UCF) WR
27 Cowboys M. Peters (Washington) CB
28 Broncos T.J. Clemmons (Pitt) OL
29 Colts B. Jones (UCONN) CB
30 Packers E. Kendricks (UCLA) LB
31 Saints P. Dorsett (Miami) WR
32 Patriots D. Smith (OSU) WR

 

After two years in a row with no RB taken in the first round, Melvin Gordon becomes the second back off the board.  An argument can be made that any of these teams at the end of the first round (except maybe Green Bay) could use him, and don’t be surprised if a team like the Colts trades with Baltimore (to get ahead of the Cowboys where he’s sure to get picked).  For this round, he doesn’t make it past the Panthers.  Not one to shy away from character issues, the Cowboys go with a huge boom or bust pick in Marcus Peters.  Peters is the best corner in the draft, but he’s a walking red flag, having been kicked off the Huskies team in November.  As if that’s concern for Jerrah.   Byron Jones and his ridiculous broad jump go to the Colts.  The U makes it back to the first round, with Philip Dorsett the newest weapon for Drew Brees.  And finally, the rich get richer as the Patriots end the first round with the multi-talented Devin Smith.

12'3" broad jump = first round.

12’3″ broad jump = first round.

Grading the Draft: The three year look back of the 2012 Draft

Yes.  Finally.  You may say offseason, but The Machine says Draft Season.  You may also be wondering:  Why hasn’t The Machine put up a mock draft yet?  Are we lazy (no way [grabs another beer]).  Did we lose our love for the Draft (not a chance).  Then what is it?  Well, we respect the Draft so much that putting up a mock draft before free agency starts is moronic.  Like, really dumb.  Like, is the dress blue or white dumb (who gives a shit)?

Sorry, mock drafts before free agency are pointless.  And we openly judge any mock draft before the combine.  Teams fill their needs through free agency first, then the draft.  Query:  is anyone going to be mocking a WR to the Jets anymore?  Exactly.

But what, then, can we do with our time?  Great question.  Maybe we can watch some spring training [laughs hysterically].  Well, while you wait for The Machine to put up its first mock and details for The Machine’s Draft Party, sit back and , it’s not too early to analyze a prior draft.

Given all the preparation, analysis, and studying that teams do, you’d think that drafting (at least in the first round) would be a slam dunk.  But, as The Machine will show you, that’s not exactly the case.

Drafts, like that fine box of white zin you have in your fridge, take time to mature.  A good rule of thumb is it takes three years to give a true analysis of a draft.  Instant analysis of a draft is dumb.  Like, really dumb.  Case in point:  3 years out, it’s unquestionable that the Seahawks had the best draft, drafting Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagoner, and Russell Wilson with their first 3 picks.  However, the instant analysis of the 2012 Draft was harsh.  Kiper gave them a C-, Pete Prisco graded the Wilson pick a D (I mean, they had Matt Flynn, what were they thinking?), and SB Nation gave them an F.

With that said, let’s take a look at the 2012 and see how the experts did.

The Colts got it right, but very few others did.

The Colts got it right, but very few others did.

Round 1 Team Pick Position
1 Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck QB
2 Washington Redskins Robert Griffin III QB
3 Cleveland Browns Trent Richardson RB
4 Minnesota Vikings Matt Kalil OL
5 Jacksonville Jaguars Justin Blackmon WR
6 Dallas Cowboys Morris Claiborne CB
7 Tampa Bay Mark Barron CB
8 Miami Dolphins Ryan Tannehille QB
9 Carolina Panthers Luke Kuechly LB
10 Buffalo Bills Stephon Gilmore CB

First, wow.  Ok, Luck’s legit and Kuechly’s a stud, but what about the rest?  Blackmon’s not even in the NFL anymore (so much for those background checks) and Trent Richardson just joined him on the unemployed line.  RGIII?  The Cowboys traded up to grab Claiborne, and he’s been a huge disappointment.

What about the rest of the first round?  Glad you asked.

Round 1 Team Pick Position
11 Kansas City Dontarie Poe DL
12 Philadelphia Eagles Fletcher Cox DL
13 Arizona Cardinals Michael Floyd WR
14 St. Louis Rams Michael Brockers DL
15 Seattle Seahawks Bruce Irvin DE
16 New York Jets Quinton Coples DE
17 Cincinnati Bengal Dre Kirkpatrick CB
18 San Diego Chargers Melvin Ingram LB
19 Chicago Bears Shea McClellin DE
20 Tennessee Titans Kendall Wright WR
21 New England Patriots Chandler Jones DE
22 Cleveland Browns Brandon Weeden QB
23 Detroit Lions Riley Reiff OL
24 Pittsburgh Steelers David DeCastro OL
25 New England Patriots Dont’a Hightower LB
26 Houston Texans Whitney Mercilus LB
27 Cincinnati Bengals Kevin Zeitler OL
28 Green Bay Packers Nick Perry LB
29 Minnesota Vikings Harrison Smith CB
30 San Francisco 49ers A.J. Jenkins WR
31 Tampa Bay Bucs Doug Martin RB
32 New York Giants David Wilson RB

The rest of the first round isn’t that pretty.  Brandon Weeden just turned 60, and he’s a career backup qb, David Wilson’s already retired, and several other players haven’t made much of an impact.  Number of pro bowlers from the first round?  6.  That’s it.

Well, at least they had that moment.

Ever wonder why the Browns always suck?  It starts with inept management.

Upon review, the 2012 Draft sucked.  For all the scouting and sleepless nights in the war room, a lot of teams (cough, Cleveland Browns, cough) got it wrong.  The Machine grades the first round a D.  The best player (Russell Wilson) wasn’t drafted until the third round.  And despite 4 receivers drafted in the first round, the best one (Alshon Jeffrey) was drafted in the second round.

Ok, back to this draft.  Now that free agency has started, our mock drafts will be coming fast and often, all leading up to the greatest non-sporting night of the year.  Check back soon to find out your team will draft.

The 2014 ‘What if’ Mock Draft…

Can you feel the excitement?!  We are a mere two days away from the NFL Draft.  Draft parties are finalized, Big-Boards are coming together, smoke screens are thicker than Andy Reid’s mid-section, and Mock Drafts are all looking….the same, 1) Jadeveon Clowney 2) Greg Robinson……blah, blah, blah.  But the reason we are all tuning in Thursday (thru Saturday) is because the draft never falls the way any of us expect (NFL GM’s included).  You never know where drama will unfold, but it does every year.  Be it Aaron Rodgers free fall in 2005, Mario Williams going over Reggie Bush (and Vince Young) in 2006, or the Patriots trading up to make Jerod Mayo a Top 10 pick in 2008.  It’s reality television that pits your teams front office against the rest of the league.  I’ll have plenty of time to unvail my “real” mock draft, but for now I’m going the contrarian approach and asking some hypothetical questions along the way.  (Big shout out to KFFL for their Mock Draft Machine).

WHATIF001

What if the Texans aren’t sold on Clowney and view Mack as every bit the athlete and prospect.  If so, and if he is a better scheme fit than why not make it back-to-back #1 overall picks for the MAC?!  Move over SEC, there is a new powerhouse in NCAA Football.

WHATIF002

What if the Jaguars are sick of “playing it safe”?  What if this year they play to win…now!  Johnny Football gives this team instant star power in a way few prospects can.  How many seats does Wembley Stadium hold?WHATIF003

What if Mike Evans is the first WR off the board?  It might send #TwitterMock into a tizzy, but it wouldn’t shock The Machine.  People only want to focus on Evans height and wing span, which are spectacularly awesome, but fail to mention how great of an athlete this kid is.  Go look at his Combine numbers, they are off the chart.  He is a height/weight/speed freak built to play receiver in todays NFL.

What if the Falcons don’t do any wheeling-and-dealing and land the top OT?

WHATIF004

What if Tampa Bay doesn’t believe in the Myth of the First Round Quarterback and feel like this is their only chance at landing a Franchise QB prospect?

What if the Vikings and Bills aren’t bullshitting about their affinity for Donald and Ebron, respectively?  Will they put their money where their mouth is and bypass an elite OT prospect in Mathews to get “their guy”?

WHATIF005

What if the G-men are content with their offseason offensive line make-over and instead give Eli another weapon?  There hasn’t been a shortage of people willing to throw Rueben Randle under the bus this offseason.

WHATIF006

What if the Bears and Steelers swap notes on defensive backs this year because both teams are in desperate need of secondary help?

WHATIF007

What if WR’s::2014 1st Round as OT’s::2013 1st Round?

What if Miami does something crazy like actually get value with a draft pick?

WHATIF008

What if Teddy Bridgewater is as good as we all thought he was 6 months ago?  This would allow the Chiefs to let Alex Smith walk after this year.  If the Packers can draft Aaron Rodgers with Brett Favre on the roster than this pick not might not be as far-fetched as you might think.

WHATIF009

What if Easley, Roby and Matthews turn out to be the best DL, CB, and WR of this draft class?  The rich get richer.

And finally, what if Kate Upton does show up the The Official Big Red Sports Machine 2014 Draft Party?

 

I get all my Draft info from The Big Red Sports Machine.

I get all my Draft info from The Big Red Sports Machine.

The Myth of the First Round Quarterback

Draft 2014

As the Draft approaches, The Machine smiles with delight.  Each year, the slate is wiped clean, each team is reborn, and the Draft begins the process of building your team into the next NFL powerhouse.  Hell, it’s even a good time to be a Jets fan.  It’s also a great time to test your knowledge of your team, and see how your mock matches up to the “experts”.

One common theme each year is that teams at the top of the Draft need to grab that franchise quarterback.  “New regime, new quarterback” is often thrown around.  But is that really true nowadays?  Is spending a first round pick on a quarterback a must?  Recent history would tell us otherwise.  Let’s look at The Machine’s uber-fancy chart of the last two years of playoffs teams, and where these quarterbacks were drafted.

2013

Team QB Round (pick)
Broncos Peyton Manning 1st (1)
Indy Andrew Luck 1st (1)
Carolina Can Newton 1st (1)
Kansas City Alex Smith 1st (1)
San Diego Philip Rivers 1st (4)
Green Bay Aaron Rodgers 1st (24)
New Orleans Drew Brees 2nd (32)
Cincinnati Andy Dalton 2nd (35)
San Fran Colin Kaepernick 2nd (36)
Philly Nick Foles 3rd (88)
Seahawks Russell Wilson 3rd (75)
Patriots Tom Brady 6th (199)

 

2012

Team QB Round (pick)
Broncos Peyton Manning 1st (1)
Indy Andrew Luck 1st (1)
Washington RGIII 1st (2)
Atlanta Matt Ryan 1st (3)
Baltimore Joe Flacco 1st (18)
Green Bay Aaron Rodgers 1st (24)
Cincinnati Andy Dalton 2nd (35)
San Fran Colin Kaepernick 2nd (36)
Seattle Russell Wilson 3rd (75)
Houston Matt Schaub 3rd (90)
Minnesota Joe Webb 6th (199)
Patriots Tom Brady 6th (199)

Over the last two years, having a first round QB gives you a 50% chance of making the playoffs.  That’s it.  Not really overwhelming odds, about the same odds The Machine has to date Kate Upton.  Obviously, much more goes into making the playoffs than having a first round quarterback…but that’s exactly our point.

Yeah, a 50% seems right.

Yeah, a 50% chance seems right.

Football is the ultimate team sport, and teams should be focused on building a balanced team, and valuing team positions (OL, DL, Secondary) over individual skill positions (QB, RB, WR).  Look no further than the reigning Super Bowl Champions, the Seattle Seahawks.  Seattle’s rise to Super Bowl Champion did not come on the arm of a first round QB or the hands of a legit #1 WR.  Instead, Seattle had a dominant offensive line that made Marshawn Lynch (a Buffalo Bills reject) a Top 5 RB, and gave Russell Wilson the time to throw to a collection of no name WRs.  And we all know about their punishing defense.

Also, of the QBs that were taken in the first round, the majority of them were taken #1 overall (Peyton, Cam, Andrew Luck).  These players were known to be can’t miss, franchise QBs.

So what does that tell us?  Unless there’s a can’t miss talent at QB, you’re better off addressing other needs, and waiting to draft a QB later.

Is anyone falling faster than Teddy?

Is anyone falling faster than Teddy?

Face of the franchise?  Another good decision by Johnny Football.

Face of the franchise? Another good decision by Johnny Football.

Now let’s apply that concept to this years’ Draft.  There are a lot of QB needy teams, including Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota, all of whom have Top 10 picks in the Draft.  Here’s the list of the Top QBs:  Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater.  None of these guys have the same pedigree or ranking as Peyton, Cam, or Andrew Luck, or even RGIII or Matt Ryan.  Simply put:  while some (or all) may turn into great QBs, you certainly can’t call any of them a can’t miss prospect.

What that has resulted in is a couple of things.  One, teams at the top of the first round are thinking twice about drafting a QB in the first.  Teddy Bridgewater, the consensus #1 pick three months ago, is now falling out of the first round…Johnny Football is also dropping.  Two, teams are looking at the next group of Quarterbacks in the class.

Jimmy's leading the Day 2 charge of QBs.

Jimmy’s leading the Day 2 charge of QBs.

Indeed, the focus has been shifted to the second and third rounds, and the buzz is now over guys like Derek Carr, Jimmy Garropolo, Tom Savage, Zack Mettenberger, and AJ McCarron.  People are looking for the next Russell Wilson, or Colin Kaepernick.  Logan Thomas and Tajh Boyd are also getting some attention.

 

Could this be the best QB in the Draft?

Could this be the best QB in the Draft?

Point is:  you don’t need a first round QB to have success in the NFL.  Don’t buy into the myth that you “need” to draft one in the first round.  The best QB in the Draft could be sitting there on Day 2.

Mock 3.0 (April 19, 2014)

Alright, we’re 3 weeks from the Draft, and things are really starting to change.  The question to answer now:  how far will Teddy Bridgewater fall?  Not if…but how far.  That’s right, the consensus #1 overall pick for the past 6 months is now sliding out of the Top 10, and possibly the first round.  Seriously, how do you have a bad pro day?  Anyway, let’s get to it.

Mock 3.0 (1 of 5)No changes for the top 2 picks, as it looks like Jadaveon is a lock to go #1.  Unless St. Louis trades out of the #2 pick (which I’d peg at 50/50) Sammy Watkins looks like their pick…not bad, considering Sammy’s drawing comparisons as a fast Larry Fitzgerald.  Big change comes at #3, as the QB-needy Jaguars will shun a QB and go with Kahlil Mack.  Why?  The Jags are more than just a QB-needy team…they are a [insert position]-needy team.  Plus, is there a QB worth the #3 pick in this draft?  The Jags have reached for a QB before (see Gabbert, Blaine) and you don’t want to reach at 3.  Likewise, the QB-needed Browns will also forgo a QB.  I think the Browns believe in Brian Hoyer just enough to give him a chance.  Da Raiders picking Robinson is a really smart pick, which is probably why they won’t do it.

Mock 3.0 (2 of 5)

Alright, the first QB goes off the Board at #8, as the Vikings take UCF stud Blake Bortles.  Blake seems to have risen to the top of the QB class.  He’s got prototypical size, and no baggage.  He’s the safe pick.  Mathews is thought of in many circles as the best OL in the Draft, and would come at a steal for Tampa at 7.  The Bills, missing out on Robinson and Mathews, go to their next need, and provide EJ Manual with a legit receiving threat in Eric Ebron (think Vernon Davis minus the diva).  Roid Rage has a mild hard-on just thinking about Manual to Ebron.

Mock 3.0 (3 of 5)

And the Johnny Football/Teddy Bridgwater fall begins.  Note:  if one (or both) get past Tennessee at 11, it’s going to be a long wait).  The G-Men stick with Lewan at 12, the question is whether he’ll be there (please be there).  I think St. Louis will go Offense/Offense with their first round picks, giving Sam Bradford no excuse (until his inevitable Week 6 separated shoulder).  Defense should dominate the middle round of this draft.  Chicago would love it if Donald were still around, but if not, hybrid-stud Anthony Barr should fit perfectly in their defense.

Mock 3.0 (4 of 5)

Finally, Johnny Football finds a home in Arizona…but Teddy still sweats it out in the green room.  Justin Gilbert provides great value for Miami at #19.  The run on WR also begins…Philly would be wise to replace Desean Jackson with Marqise Lee (but wait, he’s from SoCal, aren’t they all gang bangerz???).

Mock 3.0 (5 of 5)

Wait…Teddy falls out of the first round???  It’s looking that way.  Roid Rage has him at #5…but he’s a whore for QBs, and also thinks Derek Carr could find his into the first round.  There’s a shot of beamer on that one, son!  New England jumps out at me as a team that would love to trade out of the first round and let someone jump back in to the first and maybe grab Teddy.  There’s a lot of depth to this draft, and many big names still left.

Mock Draft 3.0 (April 16, 2014)

We are a mere 3 weeks away from the eve of the 79th Annual NFL Players Selection Meeting (that’s the official name….Wikipedia bitches!)  This draft is going to have quite a few fireworks, particularly in the Top Ten.  There are a few blue chip studs that every team would like to roster (don’t buy the Jadeveon Clowney has never worked a hard day in his life reports one bit).  On the flip side, this draft is extremely deep.  There are terrific prospects to be had in the middle rounds.  There will be some teams that are aggressive and go get “their guy”; while others try their damndest to trade down and stockpile picks (here is looking at you, Hoodie).  Enough chit-chat, on to the picks…..Rev3_1-3

 Clowney would have been the hands down No. 1 pick in last years draft.  There isn’t a QB prospect worthy enough to pass on this guy.  As I stated above, I’m not buying into these made up negative claims about his work ethic; at the same time I’m not going to enshrine him in Canton before he even plays.

Sammy Watkins is a stud.  He dominated SEC competition at age 18.  If the Rams can’t pull off a trade, he should be the pick.  Picks 2 and 3 are up for grabs in terms of trading up.  In this scenario I have Atlanta trading up to the 3-hole to grab Mack.

Rev3_4-10

Four picks in and I have two pass-rushers and two pass-catchers.  This is where the draft gets really interesting as the Jags, Browns, Raiders, and Vikings are QB-desperate (you could even make an argument for the Bucs as well).  Who starts the QB run?  How highly do teams covet these QBs?  Can they be had later in the first round?  Second round?  In my mock the Raiders get first crack.  I’ll let Teddy’s film speak for itself and try to erase his horrific pro-day from my memory (a few more huffs ought to do it).  Bridgewater gives them a chance.  He’ll have the opportunity to learn (how not to throw pick-6’s) from Matt Schaub.  Again, I have Atlanta and Jacksonville swapping picks in the first, so Bortles is a Jaguar in this scenario.  Sure, Gus Bradley would love to have Clowney or Mack on his defense, but this has got to be the most QB-needy franchise in the league.  Ebron and Donald continue to rise up my mock drafts (I had them at 23 and 25, respectively in Mock 2.0).  Ebron is a big-bodied, athletic mismatch.  It gives the Bucs a second option in the passing game after Vincent Jackson.  Minnesota is a complete wildcard.  I think they’d jump at the chance to draft Bortles and I think Norv Turner probably has a mild hard-on for Carr.  But is 8 overall too high for David’s kid brother?  I think so.  Then again: Matt Cassel, Christian Ponder.  Barf!  Mike Zimmer is a no nonsense, old school, defensive minded coach.  He grabs the disruptive interior force in Donald.  For the record, I think Jake Matthews and Greg Robinson are better prospects than any of the guys drafted last year (and there were 4 OTs drafted in the first 11 picks last year); so for the Bills and Lions to get them at 9 and 10 is great value.

Rev3_11-16

Johnny Football ladies and gentlemen!  Whizz knows as well as anyone that you have to have a QB to win in this league.  Ginger keeps harping on the fact that if the Giants can protect Eli they will basically win the Super Bowl.  Fine.  Enter Taylor Lewan.  St. Louis grabs Watkins and Clinton-Dix.  Their roster is loaded with talent (thank you Dan Synder).  Will there be a QB with more pressure to succeed this season than Sam Bradford?  Chicago and Dallas are both searching for able-bodied defensive linemen; which means Jerry will probably end up draft a Guard.

Rev3_17-23

 There are some serious playmakers available in the second half of the first round.  I love the player-team pairs for this group of picks.

Rev3_24-32

I really think you’ll see Derek Carr go somewhere in this range. I know I keep harping on the depth of this class, but for a good reason, check out these notable missing prospects: Jace Aramo, David Yankey, Brandon Cooks, Ryan Shazier, Jordan Matthews, Stephon Tuitt, Cyrus Kouandjio.

Meet the best football player in Buffalo - including anyone on the Bills!

The Man!

Mock Draft 2.0

We’re almost one month away from the Draft (can you feel the excitement?!?).  Free agency is coming to a close, and draft boards are starting to take form.  You’ll notice some big changes from my Mock 1.0, due mainly to free agency and Roid Rage’s constant nagging that no RBs will be drafted in the first round.   

Anyway, on to the picks.  And thanks to our boys at KFFL for putting together the Draft Machine…we highly recommend you head over there and put one together.

KFFL Mock 2.0 (pt. 1 of 2)

Analysis:  For now, I got Jadaveon at #1.  He should be the #1 pick…but there are rumbllings Houston’s going to pick a QB.  Sorry, but there is no consensus #1 QB.  There is no Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, or Cam Newton in this Draft.  You cannot reach with the number one pick, when you do, bad things happen (see Russel, JaMarcus).  Also, Sammy Watkins has flies up the board to #2, and if St. Louis can then grab a tackle #13, Sam Bradford will be the happiest man in the NFL.  Not sure about 3 QBs in the Top 10…I really think one of them will slip out of the Top 10.  Buffalo would be estatic if Mathews falls to them at #9.  G-Men will give a long hard look at Mike Evans and Eric Ebron…but if Lewan is sitting there, protecting Eli wins out. 

Ok, on to the second half:

KFFL Mock 2.0 (pt. 2 of 2)

Analysis:  Cowboys have to go DL, and would love it if Aaron Donald were still on the Board, but Timmy Jernigan isn’t a bad consolation prize.  Green Bay would bull rush the podium if Ebron falls to them…ditto with Philadelphia as Marquise Lee fits perfectly in Chip Kelly’s offense (and has no known gang affiliations).  If Cleveland goes QB at #4, they will have to go WR at #26 to give their newest bust savior a weapon to throw to.

Roid Rage sufficiently bullied me into having no RBs in the first round, but I’ll wager a shot of Beamer that one sneaks in.  Thank God we’ll have a Mock 3.0 next week.

Mock Draft 2.0

With free agency signings winding down and the misinformation machine in overdrive, we’re entering the final stretch of Mock Draft Season!  Below is my latest Round One Mock Draft put together using KFFL’s Mock Draft Machine.  In the category of Awesome-ways-to-kill-work-productivity goes, this is at the top of the list!  I highly recommend.

On to the picks………….

Thank you, KFFL!

Thank you, KFFL!

Analysis:  I know I’m not the only one that has had Clowney penciled in as the top pick for over a year now.  He is special.  It would take a QB prospect the likes of Andrew Luck for me to bypass Clowney.  In a league predicated on match-ups, Clowney and Watt on the same defensive front is borderline criminal!

I’ve got a combined 6 DL and LBs in the first half of this class.  That speaks not only to the depth of the position, but the premium placed on disruptive defenders.

Ultimately I think Mike Evans goes in the Top 10.  6’5″ – 231 lbs.  with 4.5s speed just doesn’t grow on trees.  The WR depth in this class is incredible.  There are going to be WR bargains to be had in the 2nd and 3rd round.

Round 1, Part 2 (Mock 2.0)

Ozzie Newsome and Ted Thompson continue doing what they always do: patiently wait for a super talent player to fall to them. Gilbert is in a dead heat with Dennard to be the first CB drafted this year.  He is a good get at 17.

Derek “you have to believe me, I’m way better than my brother” Carr makes it 4 QBs in the first round.

Like I said when I was shitting all over Ginger’s Mock 1.0, I’ll take the under on RB’s going in the first round this year.  And that’s not necessarily a knock on Hyde or Mason, both of whom I personally enjoy watching and think will be big time contributors at the NFL level, but more of a statement on the environment of the league today.  It’s a passing-first (second, and third) league.  QB, Pass-rusher, CB, OL and WR are much more valuable than running backs.  The Texans and Vikings have had the most productive running backs in the league for a few years in Arian Foster and Adrian Peterson, and they are both picking in the Top 10.

I'll take this guy and you can have the guy that has a good "work ethic"

I’ll take this guy and you can have the guy that has a good “work ethic”

Mock Draft 1.1

Draft 2014If you have been preparing and/or studying mock drafts prior to March 11, 2014, The Machine’s here to tell you’ve wasted your time (do you hear us McShay and Kiper?).  Why?  Because mocking before free agency starts is worthless.  Teams will first fill their needs through free agency, then the Draft.  Need proof?  Check how many pre-March 11 drafts had the Patriots taking a corner.  Almost all of them.  Now that Revis Island is heading to Foxboro, do you think the Pats will address that in the first round?  Same with Detroit.  Everyone had them taking a WR, but now that they have Golden Tate to play opposite Megatron, they will also fill other needs.

But we digress.  Anyway, here is The Machine’s first official mock draft of 2014.  We will be updating as free agency continues and pro-days are held, so check back for the latest updates in our award-winning Drafts.

Update [3/19/2014]: Can you imagine a world ruled by gingers? Scary thought, right?  It would probably look something like this:

Houston, we have a problem.....(and it's not who to take first overall)

Houston, we have a problem…..(and it’s not who to take first overall)

A ginger-only mock draft is almost as frightening!  That’s why Roid Rage is here to add a bit of sanity to this mock draft.  I’ll play the Lone Ranger to GK’s Tonto!  Saddle up…..

Pick/Team Ginger King Roid Rage
1. Houston Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina): QB is tempting (and a need), but is there a QB worthy of begin #1 overall?  No doubt Jadeveon is the best athlete in the draft.  There’s also no doubt defense wins championships (see Seahawks, Seattle).  In the end, Houston cannot pass up the once in a generation DE. Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina):  We’re in agreement with the first pick.  Pairing Clowney with JJ Watt is a match up nightmare for every offense in the league.  If not Clowney, then Bortles.
2. St. Louis Jake Mathews (OT, Texas A&M):
St. Louis is in a prime spot to trade this pick (we’d be surprised if they didn’t).  They have two first round picks (thanks to the steal of a trade they made with Washington).  Apparently, St. Louis is looking to give Sam Bradford one more shot at being “the guy.”  If they stay put, Jake Mathews is a safe pick that will provide instant protection for Sam.
Greg Robinson (OT, Auburn): While I agree with Ginger that OL is a priority, I prefer the upside that Greg Robinson offers.  Much like the 2010 Draft, when (pre-draft) everyone had Russell Okung as the “top tackle” only to see the “higher upside” Razorback Williams go 4th overall, two spots ahead of Russell.
3. Jacksonville Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville): The Jags are in a familiar spot, with their sixth consecutive Top 10 pick.  The Blaine Gabbert Experience has ended, and QB is the most pressing need.  Question is: which one?  My money’s on the one that’s the most NFL ready.  And that’s Teddy Bridgewater.  Blake Bortles (QB, UCF):  Gus Bradley will be pounding on the table for Clowney (should he fall) or Khalil Mack (should he fall).  But given the state of the franchise, QB has to be the pick.  Bortles has the size, arm talent, awareness and willingness to hang in the pocket to be cornerstone pick.  Plus, Lindsey Duke!  God. Damn.
4. Cleveland Johnny Manziel (QB, Texas A&M): Cleveland’s in the same boat in Jacksonville (as if Cleveland needed another reason to be depressed).  The Brandon Weeden Experience is over, and this organization needs a spark.  Who better than man-whore Johnny Football?  Johnny Manziel (QB, Texas A&M): I actually like Brian Hoyer, but his largest support (Mike Lombardi) was chased out of town along with the rest of the coaching staff and front office.  Johnny Football makes this franchise relevant.  Welcome to Cleveland.
 

Show me the money!

Show me the money!

5. Oakland Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson):
Sammy Watkins stock continues to rise.  Mark my words:  he’s going to be a Top 5 pick.  I could really make an argument for St. Louis taking him #2.  But if he’s here at 5, Da Raiders will not be able to pass him up.  The ghost of Al Davis lives on. 
Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson):  Ginger has been on this kids bandwagon since his high school days; mainly because he has a thing for high school boys, but also because Watkins is a freak!  He’ll have a tough time developing into a #1 WR, but that has everything to do with Oakland and nothing to do with Sammy.  This pick is Al Davis approved.
6. Atlanta Anthony Barr (DE, UCLA): Atlanta must go defense here.  They were exposed last year…big time.  Christ, Geno Smith led a game winning drive against them.  They need to get younger quick.  Khalil Mack is tempting, but their bigger need as at the ends.  Khalil Mack (LB, Buffalo): Mack is the superior prospect to Barr.  Hell, you can debate the merits of Mack with Clowney if you’d like.  UB’s finest!
7. Tampa Bay Khalil Mack (LB, Buffalo):
If Mack is still on the board, Tampa takes about 3 seconds to make this pick.  Hitler Youth Man of the Year Greg Schiano is gone, as is Darrelle Revis (we told you that trade was awful).  Anyway, Mack will remind everyone of Derrick Brooks, and will instantly become the leader on defense.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville): This pick seems weird, right?  But this could be the perfect landing spot for both player and team.  The Bucs can role with Josh McCown as the steady veteran and give bridgewater a year of grooming (and weight training).  Or, a dark horse (Tennessee, Arizona, KC) could move in front of the Vikings to grab perhaps the best QB of this class.
 

Meet the best football player in Buffalo - including anyone on the Bills!

Meet the best football player in Buffalo – including anyone on the Bills!

8. Minnesota Blake Bortles (QB, UCF): Resigning Matt Cassel is not the long term answer, but he does give the Vikings time to bring someone in to groom.  The man would be Blake Bortles.  He has the prototypical size for a QB, and the hottest girlfriend in the Draft. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama): Last years draft proved that Rick Spielman is a slave to his board.  He’ll take the best player available, either Clinton-Dix or Anthony Barr.  Don’t be surprised to see HHCD go this high.  Playmaking safetys with good range are highly valuable in today’s league.  Mar Barron went #7 overall in 2012.  The Saints just gave Jarius Byrd $50 million.
9. Buffalo Greg Robinson (OT, Auburn):
Robinson is giving Mathews a run for his money as the top offensive lineman.  As the Draft gets closer, it’s very likely that Robinson will be gone by now.  But Buffalo could sure use an upgrade on the line. 
Jake Mathews (OT, Texas A&M): The Bills land a stud OT in my mock too.  Matthews paired with Cordy Glenn should provide the Bills with stud bookend tackles for the next decade.  Although the Bills probably won’t pay either when their rookie deals expire.
 
10. Detroit Justin Gilbert (CB, Oklahoma St): The Lions need a shutdown corner.  This is a perfect need/value pick, as Gilbert is the consensus top corner in the Draft. Darqueze Dennard (CB, Michigan St.): Not only do we differ on the top OT, but also the top rated corner.  Dennard’s game tape is too impressive; he’ll be the first corner taken this year.
11. Tennessee Timmy Jernigan (NT, Florida St.):
If one of the Top 3 QBs slide, the Titans will think long and hard about ending the Jake Locker Experience.  Shoring up the interior of the defense isn’t a bad consolation prize, as Jernigan is a beast.
Justin Gilbert (CB, Oklahoma St): And the Cornerback run is on!  This CB class is deep, so it could come down to the type of scheme the team plays on running.  Gilbert has the make-up of a number one corner.  The Titans just happen to need one of those!
12. NYG Taylor Lewan (OT, Michigan):
Lewan really raised his stock with his solid performance at the Combine.  The guy’s a mauler, and is the definition of a “play through the whistle” player.  Sure, he’s Richie Incognito 2.0, but the G-Men need to get mean and nasty on the line.  Defensive line is also a need (after losing Tuck in free agency) but the Giant’s recipe for success is clear:  Protect Eli = win.  Don’t protect Eli = lose.  Sometimes, it is that simple.
Anthony Barr (DE, UCLA):
Sorry Eli, but Jerry Reese won’t be able to help himself.  First-round DE’s are this thing.
 

Jesus, he really is Richie 2.0

Jesus, he really is Richie 2.0

13. St. Louis Eric Ebron (TE, North Carolina) Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M)
14. Chicago Aaron Donald (DT, Pittsburgh) Louis Nix (DT, Notre Dame)
15. Pittsburgh Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama) CJ Mosley (LB, Alabama)
16. Dallas Marquise Lee (WR, USC) Dominique Easley (DT, Florida)
17. Baltimore CJ Mosley (LB, Alabama) Aaron Donald (DT, Pittsburgh)
18. NYJ Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M) Eric Ebron (TE, North Carolina)
19. Miami Zach Martin (OT, Notre Dame) Taylor Lewan (OT, Michigan):
20. Arizona Darqueze Dennard (CB, Michigan St.) Timmy Jernigan (NT, Florida St.):
21. Green Bay Jace Amaro (TE, Texas Tech) Ryan Shazier (LB, Ohio State)
22. Philadelphia Calvin Pryor (FS, Louisville) Dee Ford (DE, Auburn)
23. Kansas City Brandon Cooks (WR, Oregon St.) Odell Beckham (WR, LSU)
24. Cincinnati Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio St.) Jason Verrett (CB, TCU)
25. San Diego Louis Nix (DT, Notre Dame) Zach Martin (OL, Notre Dame)
26. Cleveland Tre Mason (RB, Auburn) Ra’shede Hageman (DT, Minnesota)
27. New Orleans Vic Beasley (DE, Clemson) Brandon Cooks (WR, Oregon St.)
28. Carolina Odell Beckham (WR, LSU) Jace Amaro (TE, Texas Tech)
29. New England Kony Ealy (DE, Missouri) Kelvin Benjamin (WR, Florida St.)
30. San Francisco Carlos Hyde (RB, Ohio St.) Will Sutton (DT, Arizona)
31. Denver Ryan Shazier (LB, Ohio St.) Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio St.)
32. Seattle Kelvin Benjamin (WR, Florida St.) Marquise Lee (WR, USC)