The Denver Broncos will win the Super Bowl.  That’s right.  I said it.  All week-long, all I heard was Cam this and Cam that.  The nu skool is taking over.  Take your leather helmet, old balls and go home, grandpa, people told me.  Fucking Roid Rage is outside my house right now dabbing (is that a form of masturbation?).  Well, enough of that shit.  Experience > Youth.  Suck it, millennials.  Let me tell you why, come Sunday, the Broncos will walk away victorious.

As great as Cam is (consensus MVP), let me ask you one, ok two, questions:  What wins championships?  Say it with me:  DE-FENSE (clap, clap) DE-FENSE.  Does Cam play defense?  You can design all the read option (still a gimmick) plays you want, and you can have the best quarterback under center, and it won’t matter for shit against a hard-hitting, fast, aggressive, and smart defense.  And that’s exactly what the Broncos are, and it’s no surprise they’re the number 1 defense in the league.  Did you see what they did to Tom Brady last game?

They play a base 3-4 defense, and there front three of Vance Walker, Sylvester Williams, and Malik Jackson (soon to be the most coveted defensive player in free agency – did you hear me, Jerry Reese?)  Anyway, those three bring consistent pressure, and that allows Wade Phillips (a/k/a the last person to take the Bills to the playoffs) to run many, many different schemes.  Although technically they play a 3-4, oftentimes you will see 4 men on the line, as Von Miller and (ageless) Demarcus Ware will play both down and back.  They are the best in the league in disguising blitzes.  And it all starts from the play up front.  But it certainly doesn’t end there.

They have superb linebacker play.  We already touched upon Ware and Miller, but second year stud Shaquil Barrett tied for the league lead in forced fumbles with 5.  And Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward anchor a prolific secondary.

But best of all, the Broncos D turns great quarterbacks into average ones.  Need proof.  Look no further than this postseason.  Denver played Pittsburgh in the divisional round, and many thought Pittsburgh, with their high-octane offense, would win.  Big Ben had the second best QBR in the league (76.9) during the regular season.  Against the Broncos:  0 tds, and 53.2 QRB.  But what about the Conference Championship game?  So glad you asked.  Denver played New England, the defending Super Bowl Champions.  Again, many people (cough, Roid Rage, cough) thought New England would win.  Tommy Terrific, who led the league with 36 touchdowns and only 7 ints, and a 64.4 QBR, got prison-style pounded.  Stat line:  1 td, 2 int, 22 QBR.  To put that into perspective, Nick Foles had the worst QBR for starting quarterbacks…at 30.

The Denver Broncos turn quarterbacks into Nick Foles.  Period.  The end.  But we’re just getting started.

But Ginger, you say, Carolina isn’t exactly soft on defense.  They too have a formidable D.  True, but that brings me to my next point.  Injuries.  The Broncos have no significant injuries on their defense.  Carolina has 2 key starters who are injured.  Thomas Davis broke his arm two weeks ago in the NFC Championship Game.  Since then, he’s had surgery, and now has a plate with 11 to 12 screws in his arm.  That’s pretty bad ass, but obviously will be a limiting factor.  Also, Jared Allen is limping into the Super Bowl.  Allen fractured his foot in the playoffs against Seattle, and sat out against Arizona.  With only three weeks to heal, will that give him enough time to be at full strength, to push off to get leverage at the end?  Answer: no.

Wow, I can’t believe I’m 600+ words into this post and haven’t said these two:  Peyton Manning.  Sure, his neck is being held together with super glue and his forehead’s the size of a Buick, but if you think the NFL is not going to have Peyton Manning win his last football game ever, you are bat shit crazy.  Put your tinfoil hat on and hear me out.

Peyton Manning has given his whole life to football.  He is a football God, and will go down as one of the greatest players of all time.  The consummate professional, who always stressed the team over individual accolades (of which he has many).  The old gunslinger gets a chance to go out on top, and have the storybook ending of all storybook endings.  And you can bet your ass RGI will give it to him.

Do you know what the NFL needs right now, more than anything?  A good story.  With CTE, domestic violence and Johnny Manziel appearing in the news daily, the NFL needs a hit.  They need a feel good story to right the wrongs, and shift the country’s attention back to the lighter side of football.  “See honey, football isn’t so bad.  Look at Peyton Manning.  Come on Junior, let’s go sign you up for the youth rec league.”  “Thanks Dad.  I love you, and I love the new, officially licensed NFL jerseys.  Can I get one?”

And, while Peyton hasn’t been the Peyton of old this season, he’s still Peyton-fucking-Manning, and that’s pretty good by most standards.  He’s been efficient (don’t say game manager), effective (don’t say game manager), and strategic (don’t say game manager) this postseason.  Quick:  who has thrown more interceptions in the playoffs, Peyton or Cam?  Answer: Cam.  Peyton’s thrown exactly 0 ints this postseason…not bad for a guy who doesn’t show up in the playoffs.

Another reason Peyton will succeed:  Eli Manning.  Obviously, I can’t write a Super Bowl post without telling you how Eli factors in.  Not only has Eli given Peyton tips on the Patriots, but he also gave him tips on the Panthers.  Little brother’s sage advice will pay off once again.

Also, Denver has better skill players on offense.  Sure, Greg Olsen is better than any tight end on the Broncos, but I’ll take Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders over Ted Ginn, Jr. and Corey Brown all day long.  Both Thomas and Sanders have over 1,000 receiving yards this season…Thomas has more yards (1,304) than Ginn and Brown combined (1,186).  And in the backfield, CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman provide a better 1-2 punch than Jonathan Stewart and Fozzy Whittaker.

All the Broncos have done is prove you wrong this postseason.  And they’ll do it again on Sunday.  I think the game will be close and low scoring.  I love the Broncos getting 5.5, and would bet the under, currently at 44.  Defense will rule this game.

Remember the movie Tombstone (note: if you haven’t seen Tombstone, you don’t belong on this site).  Anyway, Peyton is Doc Holliday, a man many thought was too sick and crippled to fight.  But old Doc had one more good one left in him.  Come Sunday, Peyton will show the world he’s got one more left in him.

Prediction:  Denver 20, Carolina 17

New England (13-4) @ Denver (13-4), Sunday 3:05 PM

 Line: Den +3.0 O/U 44.5

Here we go. The best the AFC has to offer! Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning…..for the seventeenth freaking time! I like to call it Branning Bowl XVII.

I won’t bore you with recaps or stats or highlights or lowlights of the previous sixteen times they’ve played each other; the (translation: lame) sports media outlets have you covered for that junk. Hell, there’s even a Manning v. Brady Rivalry Wikipedia page.

Despite our affinity for 80’s power rock, Chevy Camaros and Baywatch, we here at The Machine are living in the here and now. I mean, just this week I had Ginger King dapping all over some *not under aged* chicks. When it comes to winning football games (and winning money on football games) it’s a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately-business. And in that regard, New England has a huge edge: their quarterback doesn’t suck.

If you think the Patriots are going to steamroll the Broncos, then congratulations, you get it. I won’t waste your time, you can just move along to Ginger’s NFC Championship write-up. But if the Peyton Manning apologists have you second guessing that gut feeling you have…if only the receivers didn’t drop so many passes (seriously, the number of drops has steadily climbed all week- we’re at like double digits now)…then please, continue reading, or take some pepto bismol.

“The Broncos formula for winning is simple: play great defense (1^st in total defense, allowing only 283 yards/game), run the ball (CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman have had mild success), and don’t let the quarterback lose the game for you.” That’s me quoting me! And guess what, the Broncos beat the Steelers because their defense came up with a timely turnover and their field goal kicker is money from 60 yards out. Manning was 21/37 for 222 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, with a 74.4 passer rating. That’s a textbook game-manager stat line right there. That passer rating is 10^th out of 12 qualified postseason quarterbacks. Oh, that sample size too small for ya? Okay, let’s take a gander at the passer ratings rankings for the regular season (hint: look near the bottom):

Yeeeeah, that’s Nick Foles/Ryan Mallet territory we’re talking about. Now don’t misinterpret anything I’m saying: I’d love for Peyton to put one over on the Patriots, win the Super bowl and ride off into the sunset. The problem is that sun set a year and a half ago.

It’s not all doom and gloom for the home team. They do boast the league’s best defense. They are built to cover on the back-end while their edge rushers, led by Von Miller, produce tremendous pressure on the opposing offensive line and quarterback. And if the Patriots have an Achilles heel, I believe it is their offensive line.

The sweater started to unravel a bit the last time the Patriots played at Mile High when the Broncos handed the then undefeated Patriots their first loss of the season. The Patriots lost 4 of their last 6 games, limped their way to a first round bye before handling the Chiefs at home last week. Their losses all came against teams that have strong defensive lines (Broncos, Eagles, Jets, Dolphins) able to generate pressure without committing blitzers.

So that’s what the Patriots don’t do well. In every other facet of the game they excel, including cheating! They are such good cheats! (We’ll never let it die, never).

The Patriots use Edelman and Gronk to create match-up problems. They simply dink and dunk with short passes to Edelman, Amendola and [insert name] running back, until they get to the redzone where they kill you with Gronkowski over the middle. Their efficiency and effectiveness is second to none. If they get into a rhythm, and if the Broncos can’t get Tom Terrific on his ass, this offensive is capable of dropping a 40-spot on any defense.

I love the Manning/Brady angle (soak it in, this will be the last). I love the trash talking about Brady being a bitch. I think the home crowd and Denver’s defense can keep this game close. Hell, the Chiefs and Alex Smith gave the Patriots fits, so the Broncos have a chance. But at the end of the day I trust Tom Brady and Bill Belichick more than Peyton Manning at this stage of his career. I mean, Manning was hard to trust in these spots (cold-weather, primetime matchup) in his prime, let alone now with his noodle neck.

I’ll take the Patriots to win decisively.

Prediction: New England 27, Denver 16

We’re on to Santa Clara!

 

 

 

 

 

Arizona @ Carolina, Sunday 6:40 pm

Line:  Carolina -3, O/U 48

The final game before the Super Bowl, although you have to wonder:  does anyone care?  With the raging hard-on that everyone (the league, the media, even Roid Rage) has for the Brady/Manning showdown, will there be anything left in the tank after the collective money shot that gets dropped during the early game?  Well, I’m here to tell you to take a blue pill and get back on that horse, there’s still work to do.

Seriously, all the talk this week is about the Patriots and Broncos.  As if I need another reason to hate Tom Brady or ESPN.  And, not for nothing, but the NFC Championship game features the better teams.  Both Arizona and Carolina have better records than Denver and New England (Christ, the Panthers are 15-1), better defenses, and better quarterbacks.  Sorry, but this isn’t 2004.  I’ll take (league MVP) Cam Newton and healthy Carson Palmer over aging Tom Brady and noodle neck Peyton Manning.  Anyway, let’s get to the real game.

Carolina and Arizona are pretty evenly matched.  They rank 1st and 2nd in overall offense, and 6th and 7th in overall defense.  Need more proof?  How about Cam and Carson.  Each threw 35 tds during the regular season, and were one int apart (10 to 11 in favor of Cam).  And both have fast, aggressive defenses.  On paper, this game’s a toss-up, and with Carolina at home and only giving 3 points, the odds makers seem to agree as well.  So who wins?

Despite being the old man on this website (seriously, what the hell is dabbing?  Roid Rage won’t tell me) I’m embracing youth and rolling with the Panthers.  For several reasons.  First, they haven’t lost at home all year.  A perfect 8-0 (9-0 including last week’s playoff win).  Second, Cam Newton is no longer just an “athletic” quarterback.  He’s a bona fide stud.  Sure, he’s brash, obnoxious, and wears questionable clothing (see below), but so do all kids.  Cam has grown right before our eyes this year, and so have the Panthers.  This was most evident last week against Seattle.  The Panthers jumped out to a commanding 31-0 lead, and then held on to win 31-24.  The Panthers won despite Cam not having a great game.  He only threw for 161 yards with one touchdown, and rushed for a season low 3 yards.  And his touchdown came after they were already up 24-0.  But while his stats weren’t that amazing (sorry, completion percentage doesn’t wow me), he didn’t do anything to hurt his team (e.g. drive killing interceptions).  And, he makes everyone around him better.  That’s the mark of a true leader and a complete team.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are no slouch, but you get the feeling that they’re playing with house money at this point.  They are lucky to be playing on Sunday.  They did everything they could do to lose last week.  Carson Palmer threw not one, but two endzone interceptions, and it should have been 3.  He looked lost out there, and Arizona’s defense completely collapsed, especially during Green Bay’s final drive that had not one, but two Hail Marys.  However, Arizona only needed one man to show up:  Larry Fitzgerald.  Larry reminded us in a big way that he’s still got it…hauling in 12 passes for 176 yards and a game winning overtime touchdown.  For Arizona to have any chance, Larry will have to bring his A game once again.

On defense, Carolina will shadow Larry with Josh Norman, and will sit back and dare Arizona to run the ball.  Losing Jared Allen will hurt Carolina up front, but second year stud Kony Ealy is up to the task to slide in as the starting DE.  And don’t forget about Luke Kuechly.  Fresh off last week’s pick 6, Luke will be all over the field.

For Arizona to win, they will need to play perfect football…and even that may not be enough.  This game comes down to who do you trust more:  Carson Palmer or Cam Newton?  Or, better phrased, playoff Carson Palmer or Cam Newton?  After watching the Cardinals last week, we just don’t trust playoff Carson Palmer.  The Panthers play with the perfect blend of carefree attitude and focus.  This game will be close, but our money’s on Carolina to pull away in the end.  Get ready to see a lot of this, whatever it is:

Prediction:  Carolina 31, Arizona 20

Alright we’re back and ready for another weekend of NFL playoff action.  We’re going to be straight with you:  last week was brutal, at least from a betting perspective.  The Machine was 2-2 straight up, but a pathetic 0-4 ATS.  But have no fear:  We’re doubling down on our Coors Light intake and ready to make out mortgage payment back.  Let’s get to it.

Kansas City @ New England, Saturday 4:35 PM

Line: NE +5, O/U 44

As if you need a reason to hate the Patriots even more:  this is their 6^th straight home playoff game in the Divisional Round.  Sometimes, cheating pays off.  In the 5 prior Divisional playoff games, the Pats are 4-1 (3-2 ATS).  That’s a real nerdy way of saying we like their chances.

But there’s two things that are going to make this game close: injuries and synthetic marijuana.  No one needed the bye week more than the Patriots.  After winning their first 10 games, the Pats went 4-6 down the stretch, and were hobbled by injuries all around.  The Patriots will get Julien Edelmen back, but now comes word that Gronk’s playing time is questionable.  He was limited in practice all week, and didn’t practice Thursday.  In addition to that, there’s Belichick’s unexplained shiner, plus Chandler Jones’ weekend bender (are those things related, why is no one reporting on that angle?)

Oh yeah, there’s one other thing to keep in mind:  The Chiefs.  Kansas City started the season at 1-5, but then won 11 straight, punctuated with a 30-0 shellacking of the Texans last weekend.  Just think what this team could be if Jamaal Charles were healthy.  Just think what my fantasy team could’ve been.  But it’s not the offense that first comes to mind.  It’s the defense.  Led by all-world Justin Houston, the Chiefs allow fewer than 18 points a game, good for 3^rd overall.  They also rank 4^th in sacks.  If you watched last week’s Wild Card matchup against Houston, the Chiefs defense was unreal.  Perfect combination of pressure and press coverage, Andy Reid deserves coach of the year.  The Chiefs defense alone will keep this game close.  I don’t care how much illegal taping the Pats have done…their line will not be able to stop K.C. from putting constant pressure on Brady.

Where the Chiefs will struggle is finding points.  Alex “I’m not a game manager (yes you are)” Smith leads an offense that ranks 27^th overall (30^th in passing) by far the worst of the playoff teams.  With a banged up Jeremy Maclin, throwing the ball will be even tougher.  Maclin leads the team in catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns.  And the Patriots defense is no slouch, ranking second overall in sacks.

As much as we’d love to call an upset, we just don’t see it happening.  The Chiefs haven’t won in Foxboro since 1990 (0-5), right about the time the Machine was heading into our awkward teen years (or elementary school for Roid Rage – young punk).  Despite the injuries to the offense, the Patriots defense will carry the day.  Provided Chandler Jones lays off the pipe, they should be able to keep 8 in the box and force Alex Smith to throw.

Prediction:  Patriots 24, Kansas City 17

Halftime:

Green Bay @ Arizona, Saturday 8:15 PM

Line: ARZ +7, O/U 49.5

Three words:  Bet. The. Over.  This game screams shootout in the making, as the Packers travel to Arizona for a little redemption against the Cardinals.  These teams played each other in Week 16, and Arizona laid the wood to Green Bay, sacking Aaron Rodgers 8 times en route to a 38-8 victory.  But even though that game was less than three weeks ago, it feels like forever.  Now the Cardinals get Playoff Aaron Rodgers, and that’s not an easy task.

In 12 playoff games, Rodgers has thrown 25 tds and only 7 ints, and has a qb rating over 100.  He’s exactly the guy you want leading your team in the playoffs.  However, the Packers can’t completely rely on Aaron to bail them out.  For Green Bay to have success, it needs balance with the running game.  Last week against Washington, they found it, as both Eddie Lacy and James Starks rushed for touchdowns.  As a team, Green Bay rushed for over 140 yards.  This forced Washington to honor the run, which opens up more lanes for Rodgers.

For Arizona, it’s all about getting over the hump…and that hump is Carson Palmer.  Although it’s not a huge body of evidence, Carson is the only qb left in the playoffs to not win a playoff game, going 0-2, with one td, one int, and a qb rating of 66.5.  He hasn’t played in the playoffs since ’09 and, at 36 years old (that’s not really old, btw) the window is closing on his chances for playoff redemption.

Despite the disparity in playoff qb comparisons, we like Arizona.  The Cardinals have been flying high all season, winning a franchise record 13 games, and having the best balance in the league, with both a Top 10 offense and defense.  It’s that consistency that gives The Machine a chubby.  That, and Lifetime movie marathons.  But we digress…

Defensively, Arizona creates matchup nightmare after matchup nightmare.  Patrick Peterson is the best corner in the game (sorry, Richard), and Calais Campbell upfront is unstoppable.  With so much speed in the secondary, they execute the best corner blitzes in the league, and their strength at the ends allows them to overpower the line, oftentimes resulting in plays like this:

The Cardinals are a perfect 4-0 in home playoff games.  We like their chances to extend that streak, and for Carson to get his first playoff win.

Prediction:  Arizona 38, Green Bay 30

Fantasy season may be over, but the real season’s just beginning!  Nothing better than playoff football, and we mean NFL playoff football…not that lame watered down college nonsense.  Note:  when you resort to blaming poor ratings because of Star Wars, you know you’re out of options.  Shit, Luke Skywalker could show up to my house and I’ll be like, “Luke, use the force and shut your mouth until halftime.  The game’s on!”

Roid Rage, fresh off of winning The Machine’s season-long ATS picks (over me by one game!), split the games yesterday with his expert analysis of the AFC games.  Seriously, what the hell happened at the end of the Cincy/Pitt game?  Is the City of Cincinnati on fire?  Prediction:  Marvin Lewis gets fired.  Anyway, it’s time for some NFC action.  Let’s get right to it.

Seattle (10-6) @ Minnesota (11-5), Sunday 1:00 PM

Line:  MIN +5.0, O/U 39.5

A home dog?  In the playoffs?  That must be a mistake, right?  That hasn’t happened since…well yesterday, when both playoff games featured home dogs.  Home dog or not, The Machine’s a firm believer in past performance being a good predictor of future events…especially when that past performance happened last month.  And that brings us to the Seahawks and Vikings.

Remember way back when, in December, when the 6-5 Seahawks went to Minny to face the 8-3 Vikings.  The Vikings had all the hype, as they had only lost one game at home all year.  Well, the Seahawks absolutely throttled the Vikings, scoring the first 35 points en route to a 38-7 dismantling of the Vikings.

This game comes down to who do you trust more:  An upstart team or the defending Super Bowl Champions?  This one’s a no brainer.  The Machine’s money is on Seattle.  No Beastmode?  No problem.  Thomas Rawls ran for over a 100 yards and a touchdown the last time they played…and Minnesota has no answers for the read/option, which we normally hate, but admit the Seahawks run to perfection.

For Minnesota to have any chance, they have to feed AP the ball.  I don’t care how far behind they get.  AP only had 18 yards on 8 carries last month.  That ain’t gonna do it.  AP needs to have 20+ touches.

Simply put:  The Seahawks are on a roll.  Winners of 6 of their last 7 (and 8 of their last 10), Seattle’s coming into the playoffs as the hottest team.  Not even the frigid cold Minnesota winter can cool them off, which brings us to our other point:  the weather.  This could be one of the coldest games in NFL history.  How cold, you ask?  Special underwear cold…temperatures are expected to reach 20 below with wind chill.  This again, will place a huge importance on ball control and time of possession.  Seattle ranks 4^th in the league in time of possession, while Minnesota sits at 17^th.

Prediction: Seattle 20, Minnesota 10

Green Bay (10-6) @ Washington (9-7)

Line:  GB +1, O/U 45, Sunday 4:40 PM

If we told you the team that’s going to win is the team with the quarterback that has thrown for more yards and has a better QBR and higher QB rating, you’d think Green Bay, right?  I mean, Green Bay has All-World Aaron Rodgers.  Certainly he’s had a better year than Gus Frerotte-in-training Kirk Cousins?  Right?  Right?

WRONG!  Gus…err…Kirk has quietly put together one of the best performances of any QB in the league this year…and he’s done it with far less of a supporting cast.  And who can forget his now infamous rallying cry:

Green Bay really misses Jordy Nelson.  Even without Jordy, they have a ton of weapons on offense (and Aaron Rodgers); however for Green Bay to be successful, they need balance with the rushing game, and that’s where the Packers are failing.  Don’t let Green Bay’s 12^th overall rushing ranking fool you:  Eddie Lacy is limping into the playoffs.  In his last three games, Lacy has rushed for 23, 60, and 34 yards, respectively, with 0 touchdowns.  That equates to 39 yards/game.  Not surprisingly, Green Bay lost 2 of those 3 games (with the lone win against the Raiders).  Without a healthy Lacy, Green Bay becomes very predictable.  And their defense is a liability.

Washington, meanwhile, enjoys a healthy balance.  Their three-headed rushing attack of Alfred Morris, Matt Jones, and Chris Thompson, makes defenses keep an extra man in the box, which opens up the passing lanes for Kirk.  Jordan Reed has been simply unstoppable, with 5 tds in his last 4 games.

This game’s going to be close.  The Redskins get no respect because they play in the NFC East and…well because everyone hates Dan Snyder.  Some or all of that may be true, but it won’t matter come game time.  Somebody needs to win a home game in the playoffs this weekend.  We like the Skins in a close one.

Prediction:  Washington 24, Green Bay 21