All Arrest Club – 2012 Edition

Not only does the Machine provide you with cutting edge, expert analysis, but we can also see the future (if the Machine’s bookie is reading this post, just kidding, we’re just lucky).  Anyway, you don’t really need a crystal ball to know the following:  lots of NFL players get arrested, and will continue to get arrested.  In fact, as I’m writing this post, Elvis Dumerville just posted bail after what sounds like a pretty sweet bender in Miami.  Aggravated assault with a firearm…way to represent the U!  And T.O. may be headed to the pokey for failing to pay child support (note to all professional athletes:  Wrap it Up!).  So, since training camp is still weeks away, there’s plenty of time for the shenanigans to continue.  Thus, here are the Top 5 players likely to get arrested during the 2012 season (per the Ray Lewis Rule, the end of the season for purposes of this exercise is the morning after the Super Bowl).  Feel free to add your favorites in the comments.

**UPDATE**  Obviously unhappy at being left off the list, within 24 hours, Dez Bryant and Marshawn Lynch were arrested.  Dez for shoving his mom at a family BBQ and Marshawn for DUI.  Don’t forget, Beastmode also pinballed a lady off his Porsche while in Buffalo, so he does get some props (and likely suspension) for being a repeat offender.  Keep it up fellas, you’re well on your way to being on the Machine’s mid-year arrest review list.

**UPDATE 2** Proving that character concerns in college lead to character concerns in the pros, Kenny Britt was popped for a DWI (DUIs are for pussies) at 3:30 am Friday (7/20) morning.  Britt gets extra points because, allegedly, he was stopped while trying to access an army base with a female soldier.  There’s nothing wrong with giving back to the troops, but when it involves a suspension (release?) from your employer, maybe you should just wear a flag pin.

**Update 3** Aaron Berry, CB for the Lions (shocker).  Berry, who hails from the rough streets of Harrisburg, PA, was arrested for assualt on 7/21.  This on the heels of his June 23 arrest for suspicion of DUI.  If you’re keeping score at home, Berry has more arrests than career INTs.  Thus, don’t be surprised if the Lions release Berry, and use this opportunity to show the world they are holding players responsible for their actions (translation: we only hold underperforming players responsible for their actions).

5.  Adam Jones, CB, Cincinnati Bengals.  Yes, this is probably the lowest hanging fruit of all time, but come on, how does Pac not make this list?  He’s only 28, but has the arrest record of seasoned criminal.  What’s truly impressive is that he’s still in the league.  Only playing in 8 games last year, Pac’s interceptions and fumbles recovered matched Bluto’s GPA in Animal House (0.0).  Complicating matters, Pac just got hit with an $11 million judgment for his role in Make it Rain night in Vegas.   With a base salary of only $950,000, Pac will need to supplement his income.  The Machine predicts an arrest for (i) a night job as a Street Pharmacist and/or (ii) a “misunderstanding” with a stripper (yes, we’re actually calling the arrest on this one).  However, we’re giving Pac the benefit of the doubt (sort of) by listing him #5.  With his recent life-coaching to NFL rookies at the Rookie Symposium (which followed Tim Tebow’s Snitches get Stitches talk) maybe he’s turned a corner…or maybe he needs another story to tell next years’ rookies.

4.  Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots.  Big, oafy, white meatheads in the club are just asking to get arrested.  Enter Gronk, who dazzled us with his post-Super Bowl loss dance moves.  If it weren’t for football, Gronk would be a cast member on Jersey Shore or a professional Spring Break attendee.  He’s got Disorderly Conduct written all over him

3.  Richie Incognito, OG, Miami Dolphins.  Widely regarding as the biggest d-bag in the NFL, it’s truly a surprise to learn that Richie has yet to be tased by law enforcement.  He seems like a guy who has trouble separating his game-time persona with is off-the field persona.  All this leads to a Friday’s employee with a broken nose (“I said no onions on my burger mother fucker!!!”).

2.  Brandon Marshall, WR, Chicago Bears.  Marshall’s definitely got the “it” factor.  What it factor is that you say?  Ability to create separation from DBs (check).  Big physical route runner (check).  He’s got it all, but he also has one special trait that puts him #2 on our list.  He’s got the crazy.  Brandon’s got a list that makes Pacman blush.  Assaulting a police officer at Denny’s (check), returning stolen bed sheets to Burlington Coat Factory (check), a slew of domestic violence incidents (check), DUI (you know it).  He’s also been stabbed by his wife, who sounds like she’s got her own case of the crazy.  This really doubles his chances of getting arrested.  Brandon (or his agent/PR team) claims to suffer from borderline personality disorder (“BPD”) (seriously).  Look, the Machine’s no doctor, and we don’t really want to rag on someone with a legitimate medical condition.  However, medical degree or no medical degree, we’re not aware of any illness whose symptoms include multiple (alleged) assaults, violence towards women, and problems with alcohol.  If that’s the case, the entire NBA, and fans of country music, suffer from BPD.

1.  Nick Fairley, DT, Detroit Lions.  Why would Nick Fairley, who was arrested twice in two months this year (April for weed and May for driving triple digits in his Escalade), risk getting arrested again.  Well, Nick takes the coveted spot as #1 for a couple reasons.  One, he’s a Detroit Lion.  The Lions, while quickly gaining respect as a football organization (the Millen years almost caused irreparable damage) are also piling up the arrests.  They make the ’09 Bengals look like a Boy Scout Troop.  Two, it’s obvious there is little, if any, institutional control in Detroit.  With bat-shit crazy teammate Ndamukung Suh anchoring the d-line alongside Fairley, the Machine guesses these two have a competition to engage in all sorts of nefarious activities.  Three, well, simply put, good things come in threes.  While Nick missed going three for three with an arrest-free June, there’s still plenty of time in the calendar to prove the Machine right and bring home the triple crown (bonus points if the third arrest is something new).  The Machine’s money is on a post-Thanksgiving Day game fight at a club.  You got this in the bag Nick!

2012 Top 10 Fantasy RBs

While The Machine may have been slow to recognize the housing bubble burst (anyone looking for a $900k, 700 square-foot condo in the greater San Francisco area?) we were all over the Running Back Bubble! While the other “experts” were ramming the RB-RB Theory down your throat, The Machine was collecting stud QBs, WRs, TEs, and – most importantly – Championships! Because of the pass happy, spread look, 2-RB offensive systems it is more critical than ever to hit homeruns with your tailbacks. Here’s the Top 10 heading into the 2012 season (Total Yards/Total TDs/Receptions)

1. Arian Foster (1841/10/53) – Consider The Machine part of the Arian Nation! What’s not to love? Strength between the tackles, burst to turn the corner, soft hands, nimble feet, just enough wiggle to make people miss and he tweets pictures of his injuries! That’s my definition of an all purpose back. That looming hamstring injury at the start of the regular season scared some people away. But the “gamblers” (The Machine faithful) undoubtedly rode this beast to the playoffs. Time to double-down and grab this stud early (like first overall) and watch the wins pile up.

2. LeSean McCoy (1624/20/48) – Andy Reid will never win a Super bowl, but man this guy has the Midas touch for producing uber-productive fantasy tailbacks; from Brian Westbrook to LeSean McCoy. Hell, even Duce Staley was relevant! While it will be hard for LaShady to top last years numbers (come on, 20 TDs!), he’ll make up for it with an increase in receptions and receiving yards. Philly’s offense is reminiscent of a Tecmo Bowl squad, with LaShady playing the roll of Bo Jackson. As a bonus their offensive line coach is back for another year as the defense coordinator. This team will have to score a lot of points to have a chance.

3. Ray Rice (2068/15/76) – The Ravens are going to have a major identity crisis this year. They’ve had a ton of success as a ground and pound offense, with a dominating defense to back them up. However, the defense has some glaring holes (namely their senor citizen line backing corps and secondary) and is going to be a liability this year, putting the offense in a bad spot: playing from behind. The Machine has little faith in Joe Flacco and his merry crew: Bolden (slow), Evans (crusty), Smith (Mr. Go-Route). The silver lining to all of this is that Ray Rice will be a major part of every game plan and the production will continue. His fantasy floor is high (in standard scoring leagues he scored 14+ fantasy points in 13 of 16 games), and his durability is a fantasy asset (has played in every game for 3 straight years); being able to plug in your studs each and every week is huge.

4. Chris Johnson (1465/4/57) – Which CJ28 is going to show up, the 2009-10 sensational speedster or the 2011 oft-maligned version? With a top 5 ranking The Machines stance is pretty clear; we’re willing to bet on a 27 year old feature back that already has two 1600+ yards from scrimmage seasons under his belt, 42 trips to pay dirt, and sub 4.3 speed. Sign us up for the 1500 yards and double-digit scores please!

5. Daren McFadden (768/5/19) – What do we love about Run DMC (other than his ridiculously awesome nickname)? That stat line is for 7 games. Extrapolated over a full season that’s some of the charts production (1755, 11, 43). What do we hate about Run DMC? That stat line is for 7 games. Homeboy is currently the biggest tease in the fantasy world. He burned a lot of bridges for fantasy teams in the second half of last year. So why the aggressive ranking when the injury whistle is blaring? Because The Machine is concerned with one thing: Winning Championships. Run DMC has two things going for him this year that he has never had before: a competent front office and an empowered coaching staff. No more Big Al calling the ‘H-back sweep left’ from the Owners Box play after play, series after series. Sure, it might mean fewer touches per game, but more games overall. Run DMC Run!

6. Ryan Mathews (1646/6/42) – Mathews 2011 season went a long way to prove that he isn’t as big of a pussy as we thought he was after 2010. He fully showcased his skills and justified the Chargers move up to grab him 12 overall in 2010. Despite his propensity to put the ball on the ground at a Tiki Barberesque pace (13:10 TD to fumble ratio), his head coach hasn’t updated the playbook since 1996 (read: run heavy) and Mike Tolbert is now a Panther. Mathews is primed to take the next step.

7. Maurice Jones-Drew (1980/11/43) – One of The Machines all time favorites, and your 2011 NFL Rushing Title Champ. MJD is built like a brick house and can squat a Volkswagen. So what’s holding him back from claiming a higher spot on this list? Well, in alphabetical order: Bratkowski (Bob), Eben (Britton), Gabbert (Blaine), Gabbert (Blaine), Gabbert (Blaine), Monroe (Eugene), Mularky (Mike), Smith (Gene)….

8. Trent Richardson (Rookie) – When I die I hope I’m reincarnated as a 1950’s NFL Hall of Fame running back so that I can get a free pass to be a terrible actor and say as much horseshit to the media as Jim Brown does. Seriously Jim, do yourself a favor, toss the League of Nations hat in the washing machine and check yourself into a retirement home. I’m sure you’ll be a real terror on the shuffleboard court. This ranking alone tells you everything you need to know about this Richardson. He is special running back and is going to be a workhorse from day one.

9. Matt Forte (1487/4/52) – The Machine can’t blame Matt Forte for wanting to get paid; he’s among the league leaders in touches per game (21.25 touches/game) and makes the most of his touches (117 yards/game). He has produced (in fantasy & reality) like a franchise caliber running back and now he wants his bank. The Machine also can’t blame the Bears for not wanting to pay him. Sure, the production outpaced the Contract, but isn’t that the point?! Has hit the 1000 touches mile marker and broke down at the end of next year. The Bears made a leverage play with the Michael Bush signing (4 years, $14M…..$7M guaranteed), so this situation could get real ugly. We love what Forte brings to the field, but this ranking comes with a giant asterisk next to it. Stay tuned.

10. Adrian Peterson (1109/13/18) – We all know what ‘All Day’ was capable of BEFORE reconstructive knee surgery. Over the last two seasons AP has averaged a healthy 16 fantasy points per game despite playing behind arguably the worst offensive line in football, and dealing with the Brett Favre-Donovan McNabb-Christian Ponder experiment. This is another situation worth monitoring, but if Peterson is running and cutting in training camp and/or preseason The Machine has no qualms tabbing him the #10 fantasy running back.