As the Draft approaches, The Machine smiles with delight.  Each year, the slate is wiped clean, each team is reborn, and the Draft begins the process of building your team into the next NFL powerhouse.  Hell, it’s even a good time to be a Jets fan.  It’s also a great time to test your knowledge of your team, and see how your mock matches up to the “experts”.

One common theme each year is that teams at the top of the Draft need to grab that franchise quarterback.  “New regime, new quarterback” is often thrown around.  But is that really true nowadays?  Is spending a first round pick on a quarterback a must?  Recent history would tell us otherwise.  Let’s look at The Machine’s uber-fancy chart of the last two years of playoffs teams, and where these quarterbacks were drafted.

Over the last two years, having a first round QB gives you a 50% chance of making the playoffs.  That’s it.  Not really overwhelming odds, about the same odds The Machine has to date Kate Upton.  Obviously, much more goes into making the playoffs than having a first round quarterback…but that’s exactly our point.

Yeah, a 50% chance seems right.

Football is the ultimate team sport, and teams should be focused on building a balanced team, and valuing team positions (OL, DL, Secondary) over individual skill positions (QB, RB, WR).  Look no further than the reigning Super Bowl Champions, the Seattle Seahawks.  Seattle’s rise to Super Bowl Champion did not come on the arm of a first round QB or the hands of a legit #1 WR.  Instead, Seattle had a dominant offensive line that made Marshawn Lynch (a Buffalo Bills reject) a Top 5 RB, and gave Russell Wilson the time to throw to a collection of no name WRs.  And we all know about their punishing defense.

Also, of the QBs that were taken in the first round, the majority of them were taken #1 overall (Peyton, Cam, Andrew Luck).  These players were known to be can’t miss, franchise QBs.

So what does that tell us?  Unless there’s a can’t miss talent at QB, you’re better off addressing other needs, and waiting to draft a QB later.

Is anyone falling faster than Teddy?

Face of the franchise? Another good decision by Johnny Football.

Now let’s apply that concept to this years’ Draft.  There are a lot of QB needy teams, including Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota, all of whom have Top 10 picks in the Draft.  Here’s the list of the Top QBs:  Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater.  None of these guys have the same pedigree or ranking as Peyton, Cam, or Andrew Luck, or even RGIII or Matt Ryan.  Simply put:  while some (or all) may turn into great QBs, you certainly can’t call any of them a can’t miss prospect.

What that has resulted in is a couple of things.  One, teams at the top of the first round are thinking twice about drafting a QB in the first.  Teddy Bridgewater, the consensus #1 pick three months ago, is now falling out of the first round…Johnny Football is also dropping.  Two, teams are looking at the next group of Quarterbacks in the class.

Jimmy’s leading the Day 2 charge of QBs.

Indeed, the focus has been shifted to the second and third rounds, and the buzz is now over guys like Derek Carr, Jimmy Garropolo, Tom Savage, Zack Mettenberger, and AJ McCarron.  People are looking for the next Russell Wilson, or Colin Kaepernick.  Logan Thomas and Tajh Boyd are also getting some attention.

Could this be the best QB in the Draft?

Point is:  you don’t need a first round QB to have success in the NFL.  Don’t buy into the myth that you “need” to draft one in the first round.  The best QB in the Draft could be sitting there on Day 2.

Alright, we’re 3 weeks from the Draft, and things are really starting to change.  The question to answer now:  how far will Teddy Bridgewater fall?  Not if…but how far.  That’s right, the consensus #1 overall pick for the past 6 months is now sliding out of the Top 10, and possibly the first round.  Seriously, how do you have a bad pro day?  Anyway, let’s get to it.

No changes for the top 2 picks, as it looks like Jadaveon is a lock to go #1.  Unless St. Louis trades out of the #2 pick (which I’d peg at 50/50) Sammy Watkins looks like their pick…not bad, considering Sammy’s drawing comparisons as a fast Larry Fitzgerald.  Big change comes at #3, as the QB-needy Jaguars will shun a QB and go with Kahlil Mack.  Why?  The Jags are more than just a QB-needy team…they are a [insert position]-needy team.  Plus, is there a QB worth the #3 pick in this draft?  The Jags have reached for a QB before (see Gabbert, Blaine) and you don’t want to reach at 3.  Likewise, the QB-needed Browns will also forgo a QB.  I think the Browns believe in Brian Hoyer just enough to give him a chance.  Da Raiders picking Robinson is a really smart pick, which is probably why they won’t do it.

Alright, the first QB goes off the Board at #8, as the Vikings take UCF stud Blake Bortles.  Blake seems to have risen to the top of the QB class.  He’s got prototypical size, and no baggage.  He’s the safe pick.  Mathews is thought of in many circles as the best OL in the Draft, and would come at a steal for Tampa at 7.  The Bills, missing out on Robinson and Mathews, go to their next need, and provide EJ Manual with a legit receiving threat in Eric Ebron (think Vernon Davis minus the diva).  Roid Rage has a mild hard-on just thinking about Manual to Ebron.

And the Johnny Football/Teddy Bridgwater fall begins.  Note:  if one (or both) get past Tennessee at 11, it’s going to be a long wait).  The G-Men stick with Lewan at 12, the question is whether he’ll be there (please be there).  I think St. Louis will go Offense/Offense with their first round picks, giving Sam Bradford no excuse (until his inevitable Week 6 separated shoulder).  Defense should dominate the middle round of this draft.  Chicago would love it if Donald were still around, but if not, hybrid-stud Anthony Barr should fit perfectly in their defense.

Finally, Johnny Football finds a home in Arizona…but Teddy still sweats it out in the green room.  Justin Gilbert provides great value for Miami at #19.  The run on WR also begins…Philly would be wise to replace Desean Jackson with Marqise Lee (but wait, he’s from SoCal, aren’t they all gang bangerz???).

Wait…Teddy falls out of the first round???  It’s looking that way.  Roid Rage has him at #5…but he’s a whore for QBs, and also thinks Derek Carr could find his into the first round.  There’s a shot of beamer on that one, son!  New England jumps out at me as a team that would love to trade out of the first round and let someone jump back in to the first and maybe grab Teddy.  There’s a lot of depth to this draft, and many big names still left.

We are a mere 3 weeks away from the eve of the 79th Annual NFL Players Selection Meeting (that’s the official name….Wikipedia bitches!)  This draft is going to have quite a few fireworks, particularly in the Top Ten.  There are a few blue chip studs that every team would like to roster (don’t buy the Jadeveon Clowney has never worked a hard day in his life reports one bit).  On the flip side, this draft is extremely deep.  There are terrific prospects to be had in the middle rounds.  There will be some teams that are aggressive and go get “their guy”; while others try their damndest to trade down and stockpile picks (here is looking at you, Hoodie).  Enough chit-chat, on to the picks…..

 Clowney would have been the hands down No. 1 pick in last years draft.  There isn’t a QB prospect worthy enough to pass on this guy.  As I stated above, I’m not buying into these made up negative claims about his work ethic; at the same time I’m not going to enshrine him in Canton before he even plays.

Sammy Watkins is a stud.  He dominated SEC competition at age 18.  If the Rams can’t pull off a trade, he should be the pick.  Picks 2 and 3 are up for grabs in terms of trading up.  In this scenario I have Atlanta trading up to the 3-hole to grab Mack.

Four picks in and I have two pass-rushers and two pass-catchers.  This is where the draft gets really interesting as the Jags, Browns, Raiders, and Vikings are QB-desperate (you could even make an argument for the Bucs as well).  Who starts the QB run?  How highly do teams covet these QBs?  Can they be had later in the first round?  Second round?  In my mock the Raiders get first crack.  I’ll let Teddy’s film speak for itself and try to erase his horrific pro-day from my memory (a few more huffs ought to do it).  Bridgewater gives them a chance.  He’ll have the opportunity to learn (how not to throw pick-6’s) from Matt Schaub.  Again, I have Atlanta and Jacksonville swapping picks in the first, so Bortles is a Jaguar in this scenario.  Sure, Gus Bradley would love to have Clowney or Mack on his defense, but this has got to be the most QB-needy franchise in the league.  Ebron and Donald continue to rise up my mock drafts (I had them at 23 and 25, respectively in Mock 2.0).  Ebron is a big-bodied, athletic mismatch.  It gives the Bucs a second option in the passing game after Vincent Jackson.  Minnesota is a complete wildcard.  I think they’d jump at the chance to draft Bortles and I think Norv Turner probably has a mild hard-on for Carr.  But is 8 overall too high for David’s kid brother?  I think so.  Then again: Matt Cassel, Christian Ponder.  Barf!  Mike Zimmer is a no nonsense, old school, defensive minded coach.  He grabs the disruptive interior force in Donald.  For the record, I think Jake Matthews and Greg Robinson are better prospects than any of the guys drafted last year (and there were 4 OTs drafted in the first 11 picks last year); so for the Bills and Lions to get them at 9 and 10 is great value.

Johnny Football ladies and gentlemen!  Whizz knows as well as anyone that you have to have a QB to win in this league.  Ginger keeps harping on the fact that if the Giants can protect Eli they will basically win the Super Bowl.  Fine.  Enter Taylor Lewan.  St. Louis grabs Watkins and Clinton-Dix.  Their roster is loaded with talent (thank you Dan Synder).  Will there be a QB with more pressure to succeed this season than Sam Bradford?  Chicago and Dallas are both searching for able-bodied defensive linemen; which means Jerry will probably end up draft a Guard.

 There are some serious playmakers available in the second half of the first round.  I love the player-team pairs for this group of picks.

I really think you’ll see Derek Carr go somewhere in this range. I know I keep harping on the depth of this class, but for a good reason, check out these notable missing prospects: Jace Aramo, David Yankey, Brandon Cooks, Ryan Shazier, Jordan Matthews, Stephon Tuitt, Cyrus Kouandjio.

The Man!

We’re almost one month away from the Draft (can you feel the excitement?!?).  Free agency is coming to a close, and draft boards are starting to take form.  You’ll notice some big changes from my Mock 1.0, due mainly to free agency and Roid Rage’s constant nagging that no RBs will be drafted in the first round.   

Anyway, on to the picks.  And thanks to our boys at KFFL for putting together the Draft Machine…we highly recommend you head over there and put one together.

Analysis:  For now, I got Jadaveon at #1.  He should be the #1 pick…but there are rumbllings Houston’s going to pick a QB.  Sorry, but there is no consensus #1 QB.  There is no Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, or Cam Newton in this Draft.  You cannot reach with the number one pick, when you do, bad things happen (see Russel, JaMarcus).  Also, Sammy Watkins has flies up the board to #2, and if St. Louis can then grab a tackle #13, Sam Bradford will be the happiest man in the NFL.  Not sure about 3 QBs in the Top 10…I really think one of them will slip out of the Top 10.  Buffalo would be estatic if Mathews falls to them at #9.  G-Men will give a long hard look at Mike Evans and Eric Ebron…but if Lewan is sitting there, protecting Eli wins out. 

Ok, on to the second half:

Analysis:  Cowboys have to go DL, and would love it if Aaron Donald were still on the Board, but Timmy Jernigan isn’t a bad consolation prize.  Green Bay would bull rush the podium if Ebron falls to them…ditto with Philadelphia as Marquise Lee fits perfectly in Chip Kelly’s offense (and has no known gang affiliations).  If Cleveland goes QB at #4, they will have to go WR at #26 to give their newest bust savior a weapon to throw to.

Roid Rage sufficiently bullied me into having no RBs in the first round, but I’ll wager a shot of Beamer that one sneaks in.  Thank God we’ll have a Mock 3.0 next week.

With free agency signings winding down and the misinformation machine in overdrive, we’re entering the final stretch of Mock Draft Season!  Below is my latest Round One Mock Draft put together using KFFL’s Mock Draft Machine.  In the category of Awesome-ways-to-kill-work-productivity goes, this is at the top of the list!  I highly recommend.

On to the picks………….

Thank you, KFFL!

Analysis:  I know I’m not the only one that has had Clowney penciled in as the top pick for over a year now.  He is special.  It would take a QB prospect the likes of Andrew Luck for me to bypass Clowney.  In a league predicated on match-ups, Clowney and Watt on the same defensive front is borderline criminal!

I’ve got a combined 6 DL and LBs in the first half of this class.  That speaks not only to the depth of the position, but the premium placed on disruptive defenders.

Ultimately I think Mike Evans goes in the Top 10.  6’5″ – 231 lbs.  with 4.5s speed just doesn’t grow on trees.  The WR depth in this class is incredible.  There are going to be WR bargains to be had in the 2nd and 3rd round.

Ozzie Newsome and Ted Thompson continue doing what they always do: patiently wait for a super talent player to fall to them. Gilbert is in a dead heat with Dennard to be the first CB drafted this year.  He is a good get at 17.

Derek “you have to believe me, I’m way better than my brother” Carr makes it 4 QBs in the first round.

Like I said when I was shitting all over Ginger’s Mock 1.0, I’ll take the under on RB’s going in the first round this year.  And that’s not necessarily a knock on Hyde or Mason, both of whom I personally enjoy watching and think will be big time contributors at the NFL level, but more of a statement on the environment of the league today.  It’s a passing-first (second, and third) league.  QB, Pass-rusher, CB, OL and WR are much more valuable than running backs.  The Texans and Vikings have had the most productive running backs in the league for a few years in Arian Foster and Adrian Peterson, and they are both picking in the Top 10.

I’ll take this guy and you can have the guy that has a good “work ethic”

If you have been preparing and/or studying mock drafts prior to March 11, 2014, The Machine’s here to tell you’ve wasted your time (do you hear us McShay and Kiper?).  Why?  Because mocking before free agency starts is worthless.  Teams will first fill their needs through free agency, then the Draft.  Need proof?  Check how many pre-March 11 drafts had the Patriots taking a corner.  Almost all of them.  Now that Revis Island is heading to Foxboro, do you think the Pats will address that in the first round?  Same with Detroit.  Everyone had them taking a WR, but now that they have Golden Tate to play opposite Megatron, they will also fill other needs.

But we digress.  Anyway, here is The Machine’s first official mock draft of 2014.  We will be updating as free agency continues and pro-days are held, so check back for the latest updates in our award-winning Drafts.

Update [3/19/2014]: Can you imagine a world ruled by gingers? Scary thought, right?  It would probably look something like this:

Houston, we have a problem…..(and it’s not who to take first overall)

A ginger-only mock draft is almost as frightening!  That’s why Roid Rage is here to add a bit of sanity to this mock draft.  I’ll play the Lone Ranger to GK’s Tonto!  Saddle up…..

Pick/Team	Ginger King	Roid Rage
1. Houston	Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina): QB is tempting (and a need), but is there a QB worthy of begin #1 overall?  No doubt Jadeveon is the best athlete in the draft.  There’s also no doubt defense wins championships (see Seahawks, Seattle).  In the end, Houston cannot pass up the once in a generation DE.	Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina):  We’re in agreement with the first pick.  Pairing Clowney with JJ Watt is a match up nightmare for every offense in the league.  If not Clowney, then Bortles.
2. St. Louis	Jake Mathews (OT, Texas A&M): St. Louis is in a prime spot to trade this pick (we’d be surprised if they didn’t).  They have two first round picks (thanks to the steal of a trade they made with Washington).  Apparently, St. Louis is looking to give Sam Bradford one more shot at being “the guy.”  If they stay put, Jake Mathews is a safe pick that will provide instant protection for Sam.	Greg Robinson (OT, Auburn): While I agree with Ginger that OL is a priority, I prefer the upside that Greg Robinson offers.  Much like the 2010 Draft, when (pre-draft) everyone had Russell Okung as the “top tackle” only to see the “higher upside” Razorback Williams go 4th overall, two spots ahead of Russell.
3. Jacksonville	Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville): The Jags are in a familiar spot, with their sixth consecutive Top 10 pick.  The Blaine Gabbert Experience has ended, and QB is the most pressing need.  Question is: which one?  My money’s on the one that’s the most NFL ready.  And that’s Teddy Bridgewater.	Blake Bortles (QB, UCF):  Gus Bradley will be pounding on the table for Clowney (should he fall) or Khalil Mack (should he fall).  But given the state of the franchise, QB has to be the pick.  Bortles has the size, arm talent, awareness and willingness to hang in the pocket to be cornerstone pick.  Plus, Lindsey Duke!  God. Damn.
4. Cleveland	Johnny Manziel (QB, Texas A&M): Cleveland’s in the same boat in Jacksonville (as if Cleveland needed another reason to be depressed).  The Brandon Weeden Experience is over, and this organization needs a spark.  Who better than man-whore Johnny Football?	Johnny Manziel (QB, Texas A&M): I actually like Brian Hoyer, but his largest support (Mike Lombardi) was chased out of town along with the rest of the coaching staff and front office.  Johnny Football makes this franchise relevant.  Welcome to Cleveland.
Show me the money!
5. Oakland	Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson): Sammy Watkins stock continues to rise.  Mark my words:  he’s going to be a Top 5 pick.  I could really make an argument for St. Louis taking him #2.  But if he’s here at 5, Da Raiders will not be able to pass him up.  The ghost of Al Davis lives on.	Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson):  Ginger has been on this kids bandwagon since his high school days; mainly because he has a thing for high school boys, but also because Watkins is a freak!  He’ll have a tough time developing into a #1 WR, but that has everything to do with Oakland and nothing to do with Sammy.  This pick is Al Davis approved.
6. Atlanta	Anthony Barr (DE, UCLA): Atlanta must go defense here.  They were exposed last year…big time.  Christ, Geno Smith led a game winning drive against them.  They need to get younger quick.  Khalil Mack is tempting, but their bigger need as at the ends.	Khalil Mack (LB, Buffalo): Mack is the superior prospect to Barr.  Hell, you can debate the merits of Mack with Clowney if you’d like.  UB’s finest!
7. Tampa Bay	Khalil Mack (LB, Buffalo): If Mack is still on the board, Tampa takes about 3 seconds to make this pick.  Hitler Youth Man of the Year Greg Schiano is gone, as is Darrelle Revis (we told you that trade was awful).  Anyway, Mack will remind everyone of Derrick Brooks, and will instantly become the leader on defense.	Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville): This pick seems weird, right?  But this could be the perfect landing spot for both player and team.  The Bucs can role with Josh McCown as the steady veteran and give bridgewater a year of grooming (and weight training).  Or, a dark horse (Tennessee, Arizona, KC) could move in front of the Vikings to grab perhaps the best QB of this class.
Meet the best football player in Buffalo – including anyone on the Bills!
8. Minnesota	Blake Bortles (QB, UCF): Resigning Matt Cassel is not the long term answer, but he does give the Vikings time to bring someone in to groom.  The man would be Blake Bortles.  He has the prototypical size for a QB, and the hottest girlfriend in the Draft.	Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama): Last years draft proved that Rick Spielman is a slave to his board.  He’ll take the best player available, either Clinton-Dix or Anthony Barr.  Don’t be surprised to see HHCD go this high.  Playmaking safetys with good range are highly valuable in today’s league.  Mar Barron went #7 overall in 2012.  The Saints just gave Jarius Byrd $50 million.
9. Buffalo	Greg Robinson (OT, Auburn): Robinson is giving Mathews a run for his money as the top offensive lineman.  As the Draft gets closer, it’s very likely that Robinson will be gone by now.  But Buffalo could sure use an upgrade on the line.	Jake Mathews (OT, Texas A&M): The Bills land a stud OT in my mock too.  Matthews paired with Cordy Glenn should provide the Bills with stud bookend tackles for the next decade.  Although the Bills probably won’t pay either when their rookie deals expire.
10. Detroit	Justin Gilbert (CB, Oklahoma St): The Lions need a shutdown corner.  This is a perfect need/value pick, as Gilbert is the consensus top corner in the Draft.	Darqueze Dennard (CB, Michigan St.): Not only do we differ on the top OT, but also the top rated corner.  Dennard’s game tape is too impressive; he’ll be the first corner taken this year.
11. Tennessee	Timmy Jernigan (NT, Florida St.): If one of the Top 3 QBs slide, the Titans will think long and hard about ending the Jake Locker Experience.  Shoring up the interior of the defense isn’t a bad consolation prize, as Jernigan is a beast.	Justin Gilbert (CB, Oklahoma St): And the Cornerback run is on!  This CB class is deep, so it could come down to the type of scheme the team plays on running.  Gilbert has the make-up of a number one corner.  The Titans just happen to need one of those!
12. NYG	Taylor Lewan (OT, Michigan): Lewan really raised his stock with his solid performance at the Combine.  The guy’s a mauler, and is the definition of a “play through the whistle” player.  Sure, he’s Richie Incognito 2.0, but the G-Men need to get mean and nasty on the line.  Defensive line is also a need (after losing Tuck in free agency) but the Giant’s recipe for success is clear:  Protect Eli = win.  Don’t protect Eli = lose.  Sometimes, it is that simple.	Anthony Barr (DE, UCLA): Sorry Eli, but Jerry Reese won’t be able to help himself.  First-round DE’s are this thing.
Jesus, he really is Richie 2.0
13. St. Louis	Eric Ebron (TE, North Carolina)	Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M)
14. Chicago	Aaron Donald (DT, Pittsburgh)	Louis Nix (DT, Notre Dame)
15. Pittsburgh	Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama)	CJ Mosley (LB, Alabama)
16. Dallas	Marquise Lee (WR, USC)	Dominique Easley (DT, Florida)
17. Baltimore	CJ Mosley (LB, Alabama)	Aaron Donald (DT, Pittsburgh)
18. NYJ	Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M)	Eric Ebron (TE, North Carolina)
19. Miami	Zach Martin (OT, Notre Dame)	Taylor Lewan (OT, Michigan):
20. Arizona	Darqueze Dennard (CB, Michigan St.)	Timmy Jernigan (NT, Florida St.):
21. Green Bay	Jace Amaro (TE, Texas Tech)	Ryan Shazier (LB, Ohio State)
22. Philadelphia	Calvin Pryor (FS, Louisville)	Dee Ford (DE, Auburn)
23. Kansas City	Brandon Cooks (WR, Oregon St.)	Odell Beckham (WR, LSU)
24. Cincinnati	Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio St.)	Jason Verrett (CB, TCU)
25. San Diego	Louis Nix (DT, Notre Dame)	Zach Martin (OL, Notre Dame)
26. Cleveland	Tre Mason (RB, Auburn)	Ra’shede Hageman (DT, Minnesota)
27. New Orleans	Vic Beasley (DE, Clemson)	Brandon Cooks (WR, Oregon St.)
28. Carolina	Odell Beckham (WR, LSU)	Jace Amaro (TE, Texas Tech)
29. New England	Kony Ealy (DE, Missouri)	Kelvin Benjamin (WR, Florida St.)
30. San Francisco	Carlos Hyde (RB, Ohio St.)	Will Sutton (DT, Arizona)
31. Denver	Ryan Shazier (LB, Ohio St.)	Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio St.)
32. Seattle	Kelvin Benjamin (WR, Florida St.)	Marquise Lee (WR, USC)