Week 11 – Sleepers

It’s hard to believe Week 11 is already upon us.  This is the home stretch as NFL teams and, as equally important, your fantasy team make a run for the playoffs.  Making the right lineup decision, waiver wire add, and final trade negotiation (trade deadlines are typically this week or next) are more critical than ever.  Like a lost soul, you’ve found your way to fantasy salvation as The Machine is here to guide you through the treturous final weeks of the regular season.

Last week in this article we pimped the likes of Jake Locker (122 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 36 rushing yards ~ 20 fantasy points…..a rather efficient day for Jake, considering he only completed 9 passes), Scott Chandler (5/65/1 ~ 17.5 fp), Danario Alexander (5/134/1 ~ 29 fp).  On the flip side we also threw our trust behind Ryan Tannehill (217/0/3 ~2.5 fp), Taiwan Jones (2.3 fp) and Ryan Broyles (1.6 fp).  We’re not going to hit on all of these pick, obviously, but that is kind of the point.  In most instances we’re identifying guys that are still available on the waiver wire in most competitive leagues (there is a reason they are sitting on the waiver wire) and have a chance to make a difference in a spot start, bye week filler, or desperation flex play.  With that, here are a few candidates that could make the week 11 highlight reels:

1. Oakland Receivers – Poor Carson Palmer, the guy just can’t catch a break.  His NFL career is defined by a gruesome knee injury sandwiched between stints of playing quarterback for the hapless Bengals and Raiders. Palmer has been slinging it all over the field with a great deal of success.  In his last five he is averaging 328 passing yards and 2 TDs.  Part of that box score success rests on the Oaklands inability to slow any one down.  And with the Drew Brees and the surging Saints coming to town expect boatloads of points and yardage via the passing game; this is the highest over/under of the week at 55.  Brandon Myers, TE (38% Y!) has been cleared off last weeks concussion and should be ready to roll as Palmers relief valve.  Rod Streater, WR (1% Y!) might see some playing time if DHB’s hammy acts up during pre-game warm-ups.  Chances are Marcel Reece, RB (63% Y!) isn;t available in your league, but if he is pick him up and start him with confidence this week.

2. Ronnie Brown, RB (12% Y!) – Browns inclusion on this list is based soley on opportunity.  The oft-injuried, ultra unreliable Ryan Matthews is dinged up, again!  Apparenly with a stiff neck suffered in practice?!  Who knows with this guy.  What we do know is that he missed practice Thursday and Friday, but it looks like he might suit up.  Brown should at least spell Matthews more than normal and see a fair amount of work as the third down back.  Sure, it looks as though Brown is running through mud, but he could plod his way to 60 total yards and a handful of catches.

3. Nick Foles, QB (16% Y!) – Love Foles in the first start of his NFL career.  He draws the dreadfully bad Washington secondary lead by the ‘Me’-angleo Hall.  Coming in for a concussed Vick, Foles slung it around fairly well against the boys.  Really, his only bad throw got picked and taken to the house.  Welcome to the NFL kid. With capable weapons at his disposal, Andy Reids commitment to the run despite having a top 3 running back and a full week of reps under his belt, Foles should have no troubles posting top 12 QB numbers, despite a couple of turnovers.

Others to consider: Danny Woodhead, RB (47% Y!), Chris Ivory, RB (29% Y!), James Starks, RB (21% Y!), Logan Paulsen, TE (3% Y!)

Week 10 – Sleepers

Last week at this time we gave you Cecil “Too” Shorts (the third!) who had a 3/56 (8.5 points ppr) line and then backed it up with a monster Thursday night going 6/105/1 (22.5 pts) and Joique Bell who dropped 109 yards, 3 receptions and a TD (20 pts).  Sure, we may have pimped Domenik Hixon, but how did we know that Brother Eli was suffering from “dead arm” (is that the equivalent of a pornstar suffering from limp dick?!); we thought that prognosis was exclusively reserved as an excuse for Archie’s 5 INT performance at the Annual Manning Family Thanksgiving Day Pigskin Classic!

Anyways, the point is that even our crystal ball needs some polishing from time to time.  The players listed are merely some bottom of the barrel flex-type desparation plays that have some potential upside.  Let’s scour the waiver wire, shall we:

 1. Jake Locker, QB (16% Y!) – Locker is excepted to draw the start in Miami today.  This one won’t be pretty, the Titans offense has been all over the board this year and in Locker’s brief appearance this year (Week’s 1-3) he has 4 turnovers (2 INTs, 2 FUMs).  However, the Titans do have some weapons on the offensive side of the ball (Johnson, Britt, Wright) and Locker has developed some mojo with Nate Washington.  Chances are that the Titans will be playing from behind, and thus forced to chuck the rock, as they have allowed a league leading 308 points this season (fyi – no other team as allowed 250 points yet this year….not even the Bills, Redskins or Saints!).

2. Taiwan Jones, RB (14% Y!) – Jones certainly fits the bill as a desparation play with some upside potential.  With Run DMC and Mike Goodson nursing ankle injuries, Jones is the de facto starting tailback for the black and silver.  The former 2011 4-rounder is more of an ideal change-of-pace back, and he should share the load with FB Marcel Reece, however Jones has blazing speed (why else would the Raiders draft him) and could cetainly make a dent on the stat sheet with 10-12 touches.

3. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB (36% Y!) – If there was ever a week that ‘Qizz was going to crack your starting line-up (PPR only!) it’s this week as the Falcons travel to divisional rival New Orleans for what should be a bonanza of fantasy points.  Perennial plodder Mike Turner (4.0 ypc) is firmly entrenched as the Falcons bell cow.  However, Qizz has been getting more and more involved as a change-of-pace and third down back, as evident by his 9 rec/133 yards totaled in the last two weeks.  If he can get the ball in open space against this porous defense a dirtybird dance may soon follow!

4. Emmanuel Sanders, WR (23% Y!) – Don’t be fooled by the string of 100-yard rushing games but up by Dwyer and Redman, the foundation of the Steelers offense is Big Ben and the passing game.  With Antonio Brown expected to miss this tasty match-up against the Romeo Rules Kansas City Chiefs, look for Sanders to get a few extra looks.  Heath Miller and Mike Wallace will probably gobble up any additional extra red zone and long ball opportunities respectively, Brown could post a 5/55 type of line.  You could do worse as a flex WR.

Others for consideration: Tannehill, QB (13% Y!), Chandler, TE (33% Y!), Broyles, WR (17% Y!), D. Alexander, WR (2% Y!) [That’s right, a 2% owned player! Only at The Machine!]

Week 9 – Sleepers

If you’re like us, you are neglecting your family right now, over-thinking your starting lineup and scanning the waiver wires.  Need a quick fix to fill in your roster?  Read on, brother, The Machine has your back.  Here are our Week 9 Sleepers.

  1. Cecil Shorts (JAC, 32% Y).  It’s surprising Cecil is only owned in 32% of all leagues, because he has established himself as the #1 WR in Jacksonville.  Granted, that’s kind of like being the skinniest kid at fat camp, but hey, it’s something.  The Jags always play from behind, and with MJD (and Laruent Robinson) dinged up, look for Blaine Gabbert to throw early and often.  He’s averaged 6/97 over the past two weeks, and we’ll take those numbers any day.  He goes against a Detroit secondary that has been atrocious so far this season.  If you’re looking for a WR, plug him in with confidence.
  2. Dennis Pitta (BALT, 34% Y).  Pitta started off the year on fire, averaging over 16 pts. the first 3 weeks.  He’s cooled off as of late, but remains a good option if you need to fill in a TE this week.  Flacco looks for him consistently in the redzone, and Baltimore should spend a lot of time there in Cleveland today.
  3. Joique Bell (DET, 16% Y).  The Machine has no idea how to pronounce his first name, but we do know that (a) Mikel Leshoure is hurting and (b) Bell is a pass-catching RB that stands to see more action today against Jacksonville.  He’s a decent flex plug-in or RB2 if you’re desperate.
  4. Domenik Hixon (NYG, 20% Y).  Being the number 3 option on the G-men is like being a #2 WR anywhere else.  Eli and co. love to throw the ball, and Eli does a good job spreading the love.  Hixon gets his share of looks (especially on 3rd down) and if Pitt tries to shut down Nicks and Cruz, that should open up some lanes for Hixon.

WEEK 8: Insanely Deep-Sleepers

Need a last minute Jordy Nelson replacement? Has Aaron Hernandez’s Maddenesque fear of flying left you without a TE option? Here are 4 players you can pull of the fantasy scrap heap (all less than 25% owned in Yahoo! leagues) that could provide some relief:

1. Brandon Stokley, WR (Den, 23%Y) – Stokley’s earned himself a lifetime pass to the Manning Family’s Thanksgiving dinner with his sure hands, toughness and ability to always run the right route, even when Sir Peyton changes the play 8 times before snapping the ball.  Stokley is buried on this depth chart, behind talent wideouts Decker and Thomas.  So he certainly isn’t going to give you big catch or yardage totals, but he seems to be a Manning favorite in the redzone as evident by his 3 TD’s on only 19 catches.  The matchup certainly is right, all the bounties in the world couldn’t help this Saints defense.h

2. Brandon Weeden, QB (Cle, 21%Y) – Between San Diego’s stout run defense and T-Richs sore ribs, this could be a game that Weeden is forced to air it out to keep pace with Phil Rivers and Co.  I fully except the fumbles and INTs, but if all goes right I’ll take the 300+ yards and a score or two.

3. Brandon Myers, TE (Oak, 20%Y) – He led the team in targets last week and finished with a PPR-respectable line of 7/44.  Nothing about this divisional matchup is scary.  He could certainly give you 10 points in a PPR.  Hey, you could do worse.

4. Leonard Hankerson, WR (Wash, 9%Y) – Leo Hank is the Redskins starting ‘X’ receiver mostly be default thanks to Pierre Garcons maddening foot ailments.  Interestingly enough, the X-WR is the first read in the new hybrid spread option offense the Shannahans are running with RGIII these days.  While there really isn’t anything exciting about Hanks game, he pulled in 6/70 last week.  The Pittsburgh secondary has had there issue this year.  I’m liking Hanks chances of cracking 100 yards today (Sandy notwithstanding!)

2012 Top 10 Fantasy DEFs

Not sure about you, but this over saturation of synchronized diving, ballet dancing and gymnastics has the Machine just itching for some football.  We’d take Pro-Bowl effort football at this point.  (Side note: The Machine confused the frolicking, spinning, and overall concerted effort that the synchronized divers put into getting from the pool to the hot tub as ballet dancing.  Is this the Summer Olympics or a bad episode of ‘Blind Date’)?  Anyways, our final ‘Top 10’ fantasy ranking is Defense. You know, D-[insert picture of picket fence here].  We’ll be updating the lists as training camps, preseason and Bryant Family BBQ’s wrap up this summer.

Defenses certainly don’t win fantasy championships.  Last year, the difference between the #1 (Chicago) and #10 (Philly) defense was 31 points, just under 2 points a week.  However, the difference between Philly and #20 (Dallas) was another 24 points.  You definitely want to identify the top 6 or 7 fantasy defenses and get one of them as late in the draft as possible.  It’s also worth pointing out that a fantasy defense hasn’t repeated at the number one overall spot in a decade.  A number of factors contribute to this trend: first, significant fantasy scoring stats such as fumbles (recovered), interceptions and special team touchdowns are as reliable as the transmission in a ’91 Dodge Daytona.  Secondly, the current rules of the NFL have all but abolished the days of the ‘dominate’ defense.  The Machines approach to evaluating defenses is simple:  give us a defense that can consistently put pressure on the opposing teams quarterback.  This yields the most potential for sacks and mistakes (ie interceptions, fumbles, etc.).  With that in mind we present the Top 10 Fantasy Defenses for 2012:

  1. San Francisco – Feeding off of Patrick Willis’s intensity, this defense brings the lumber every game.  Aldon Smith is a pass-rushing phenom.  This defense finished 4th last year while only scoring 1 TD! If a few more balls bounce their way look out.
  1. New York Giants – The G-men boast the deepest, most talented defensive line in football, just ask Tom Brady.  JPP has the chance to win multiple defensive MVP awards if he stays healthy.
  1. Green Bay Packers – This defense will get plenty off opportunities to pin their ears back and rush the passer.  Their first six selections in the draft were defensive players; Nick Perry and Jerel Worthy should be able to contribute right away.  Their secondary has a few playmakers that are willing to gamble for the big payoff.  It looks like a great year to buy into the GB DEF.
  1. Philadelphia Eagles – They added some nice pieces via free agency, trades and the draft.  Their defensive line is dynamic, if not undersized, and built to attack the quarterback.  At this point the only thing this defense is missing is a legitimate coordinator.  While we have zero faith in Castillo, even he’d be hard pressed not to have success with this defense…(again)
  1. Chicago Bears – Da Bears!  Their defense always seems to translate well into the fantasy realm.  They seem to have the uncanny ability to turn turnovers into touchdowns.  Oh, and it doesn’t hurt to have the best punter returner in history.
  1. Buffalo Bills – We’re drinking the Kool-Aid that this defensive line is going to wreak havoc.  It’s been quite a long time since the Bills were known for getting after the QB, so this could be a very fun group to watch.  They also have some young and talented secondary players in Bryd, A. Williams and rookie S. Gilmore (who will challenge Revis for the best corner in the conference within two years!)
  1. Houston Texans – Wade Phillips’ defenses are tried and true.  They generate sacks and interceptions.  Even with some big time free agency departures they have a talented front-seven.
  1. Detroit Lions – This defense will stomp on your face, literally.  While The Machine is nervous that the Lions might not be able to field an entire squad at their current arrest rate, what has us even more uneasy is the fact that they scored 7 DTDs last year.  We don’t like their chances of hitting that number again this year.
  1. Baltimore Ravens – Oh how the mighty have fallen.  It’s hard to back a team with so many aging veterans (R. Lewis, E. Reed) and that lost their best (player) pass-rusher in T. Sizzle Suggs.  We’d rather be a year too early jumping off this wagon than a year too late.
  1. Seattle Seahawks – Here is a defense that flies under the radar.  They finished 6th overall last year (8.3 fpt/gm).  Sure, it helps when you play six games against Sam Bradford/Kevin Kolb/Alex Smith, but this defense deserves some credit.  They did everything well and have an under rated secondary.  Earl Thomas is one of the best young safeties in the league.

2012 Top 10 Fantasy Ks

Ok, if you’re reading our Top 10 Fantasy Kickers list, one of the following statements is true:  (i) you’re a degenerate gambler (the Machine prefers “sports enthusiast”); (ii) you’re a family member of an NFL kicker, or (iii) you’re really into all things fantasy (saving up for Comic Con 2013 baby!).  Whatever your reason, the Machine likes it.  In fact, we know you’re reading this because drafting the right kicker matters.  Sure, a run on kickers usually starts in round 16 (of 16).  However, did you know the difference between the #1 scoring kicker last year (David Akers) and the #10 scoring kicker (Jason Hanson) was 51 pts, which equals to more than 3 pts each week (how many games did you lose by less than three points last year?).  That’s some knowledge you need to know.  Now, what you need to know is who the right kicker is.  We got you covered for that.  (FGM/FGA/50+/PAT).

1. Sebastian Janikowski (31/35/7/36).  Al may have been crazy for drafting him in the first round (17th overall) of the 2000 Draft, but come on, was there any doubt he’d be a Raider.  We love Seabass.  What’s not to love about a 6’2” 250 lb kicker that drinks vodka for breakfast, loves to get in bar fights, and oh yeah, can kick the ball out of the stadium.  Dude’s got a left foot of gold.  He’s especially gold in leagues that give bonus points for 50+ yarders.  Seabass tied for the league lead with 7 (out of 10) 50+ yarders, including a 63 yard bomb.  He was also consistent…he only missed one FG under 50 yards.  In 2012, da Raiders should have a more potent offense , which equates to more field goals and PATs.  Kick some ass Seabass!

2. Rob Bironas (29/32/6/34)Rob nailed 6 of 7 50+ yarders last year, and only missed 3 FGs.  We like the Titans to be able to move the ball a little better in 2012, but not that much better where they’ll be scoring a ton more touchdowns.  Look for the offense to breakdown in the red zone, as teams put 11 in the box and force Locker to throw (they’ll still run CJ on 3rd and 6).  This translates into more FG opportunities for Rob.

3.  Stephen Gostowski (28/33/1/59)While only making one FG longer than 50 yards, and missing 5 FGs overall, Gostowski made it up with 59 PATs.  The Pats will continue to score in 2012 at will, so look for Gostowski to maintain solid numbers.

4.  Robbie Gould (28/32/6/37).  Robbie was a perfect 6 for 6 from 50+.  That’s impressive, especially playing in the Windy City.  Da Bears should have no problems moving the ball, and Robbie should have no problems cracking the Top 5 in points.

5.  Dan Bailey (32/37/2/39).  As an undrafted rookie, Bailey came out of nowhere, nailing 32 FGs for the Cowboys.  He showed he can hang with the big boys.  The Machine likes youthful exuberance, and this 24 year old’s got a ton of it.  We also like the Cowboys offense, which should give Bailey plenty of opportunities to prove he’s worthy of a Top 5 pick.

6.  Mason Crosby (24/28/3/68).  Mason needs to get his attempts up, but that’s hard to do when the Pack score touchdowns all the time.  He easily led the league with 68 PATs, and the Pack’s offense should be just as potent.  Mason will always be in a position to score.

7.  David Akers (44/52/7/34).  Akers led all kickers last year in points, by a sizeable margin.  Why then, does the Machine have him 7th overall?  Well, for starters, kickers never repeat as league leaders.  And, if you’re David Akers, you had the best year of your career, by far.  He made 44 FGs last year, which covers up the fact that he missed 8 FGs.  His previous career highs was 33.  He also turns 38 this year, which we know is young for a kicker, but still.  Even if last year was a fluke, with the greatest game-manager of all time at the helm (that’s not a compliment), Akers will get plenty of opportunities.  Just don’t be surprised if his numbers are a little south of where he was in 2011.  Don’t say we didn’t warn you.

8.  Neil Rackers (32/38/4/39). Playing with Houston last year, Rackers had a good season, finishing as the #8 kicker overall.  He can still nail it from downtown (4 of 5 from 50+).  Now with Washington and RGIII, look for Neil to put up similar numbers this year.

9.  Jason Hanson (24/29/5/54).  At the opposite end of the youth scale, Hanson just turned 42!.  He was drafted in 1992, you remember 1992, right?  The Colts took Steve Emtman #1 overall, and the Machine was an extremely awkward teenager.  Holy shit that was a long time ago.  Anyway, that 42 year old leg still has some juice, nailing 5 of 7 from 50+ yards.  Playing in a dome with a high-powered offense will help grandpa stay in the Top 10 for another year.

10.  Matt Bryant (27/29/2/45).  When in doubt, go with a dome kicker.  Although it makes absolutely zero sense why there’s a dome in Atlanta, Bryant’s not complaining.  Although he only took 2 50 yarders, he made them both, and only missed 2 FGs all year.

2012 Top 10 Fantasy WRs

None of the positional group rankings have as clear-cut, unanimous number one as the wide receivers; enter Calvin Johnson.  MegaTron brought his talents to Mo’Town to the tune of 1600+ yards and 16 TDs (MVP type numbers for a WR) and many, many fantasy championships last year.  After MegaTron however it gets really interesting.  In both the real world and fantasyland, wide receivers are the most volatile skill position in the league.  Their success, as much as any position, is tied to a number of factors: offensive scheme, game-plan, quarterback, offensive line protection, etc.  Not only that, with the increasing number of 4 and 5 WR sets, more and more WRs are contributing (and becoming fantasy relevant).  Fortunately for you, The Machine is here to make sense of it all and tell you who will be the Top 10 WRs for 2012.  Getcha popcorn ready! (Rec/Yards/Rec TDs/Targets)

  1. Calvin Johnson (96/1681/16/157) – The easiest positional player to rank in 2012; Megatron has established himself as the most dominate wide-receiver in football.  You can’t play up on him because he’s so physically strong he’ll run through you.  You can’t play off of him because he’ll run right by you.   He is a deep-threat and an absolute BEAST in the redzone. Your only chance is to roll coverage to his side of the field or assign two DBs to him.  And even then he can out-run, out-muscle, out-jump and outreach (82” wingspan) your coverage.  A signature Calvin Johnson play was Week 4 vs. Dallas. Early in the 4th quarter, with the Lions down by 14, on a 1st-and-10 from the Cowboys 24 yard line, Stafford throws a “jump ball” to the back of the end zone and with a safety draped all over him, ‘Tron out jumps a corner and an underneath linebacker for a TD.  Simply incredible.  Not only that, Megatron saved some of his best work for the playoff push, averaging 26+ fantasy points (non-ppr) from weeks 14-17.  Unless a team shows up with Optimus Prime as the defensive coordinator, there is no stopping Megatron. (Sorry, that will be The Machines only corny Transformers joke when it comes to Calvin, promise).
  1. Andre Johnson (33/492/2/51) – God willing, ‘Dre will be on every single one of The Machines fantasy rosters this year.  He is an absolute match-up nightmare and is coming at somewhat of a discount due to the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately attitude that plaques so many fantasy owners.  AJs injury was a complete fluke last year.  Not only that, he rehabbed to the point where he dropped (13/201/2) in two playoff games last year…and that was with TJ Yates at the helm!  We’re not doctors (even though we proudly own a t-shirt that reads ‘Free Breast Exams’) or physiatrists for that matter, but The Machine has pretty strong intel suggesting AJ is completely healthy and motivated to prove he is still elite.  He’s got the talent, a steady offensive system, an adequate enough QB to translate into a 1300yrd/9TD season.  Get him!
  1. Larry Fitzgerald (80/1411/8/152) – Meet Mr. Reliable.  It doesn’t matter how shitty of a QB Whizz marches out there – Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Richard Bartel – Fitz continues to put up numbers.  The Machine doesn’t buy into the “he’s the hardest working man in football” routine; listen if somebody paid us $10M a year to catch footballs we’d work our asses off too!  But we can appreciate that Fitz’s conditioning is legendary and he has stayed relatively injury free.  Larry’s fantasy floor is incredibility high; however his QB (or lack there of) prevents his ceiling from reaching the top rank.  Draft Fitz with confidence, just try not to watch the boxscore, or let alone a Cardinals game if you don’t have to.
  1. Greg Jennings (67/949/9/101) – Yes, we will take a piece of that Aaron Rodger pie thank you.  Okay, so that sounded really gay, but the point is that Jennings is tied to the best offense, the best quarterback and the best play-caller in football these days and that more than makes up for his lack of elite talent. Jennings is a smooth route runner and has the full trust of Rodgers.  Plus, the Packers can’t run the ball for a lick.
  1. Hakeem Nicks (75/1183/7/129) – Most people will tell you that ranking Hakeem Nicks at #5 is too high.  Well, most people don’t win fantasy championships either.  Nicks is an absolute monster.  We’ve already confessed our man-crush on Brother Eli; and Nicks is on the receiving end of most of those Manning fire balls.  The Machine isn’t going to second guess Jerry Reese’s eye for talent.  He knew he had a stud in the making when he drafted him, and this will be Nicks “breakout” year.  Barring a setback from his rehab (on track for preseason), The Machine fully expects an 85/1300/10 type of season.  You’re welcome.
  1. Julio Jones (54/959/8/94) – If you’re starting a keeper league this year there are three must-have players: Cam Newton, Trent Richardson and Julio Jones.  Jones is as physically gifted as they come.  Consider this: had Julio returned for his senior season (and had the type of season he is capable of) the Rams probably stay put and take him #2 overall in the 2012 draft.  He is that good.   Admittedly, he is a bit rough as a route runner, but he bursting with raw potential.  The Machine strongly feels he could have a TO-type impact (minus all the baggage) on the football field.
  1. AJ Green (65/1057/7/112) – Speaking of the 2011 draft class, Green was selected two picks before Jones, but he ranks just behind Julio on our list.  We absolutely love the talent, skill set, route-running, catch-radius and potential to put up big time numbers.  Green will be a dominate force for years to come.  At this point in time, however, the Bungals offense isn’t as far along as Atlanta’s, and defenses will be keying on taking away Green.  They won’t have much success.  Plus, he has the ultra-reliable, dependable, cannon-armed, gun-slingin, good-looking Big Red Icon, Andy Dalton slinging him the rock, what’s not to love about that?! (We take care of our own!).
  1. Wes Welker (122/1569/9/173) – This little shit never stops.  It seems like he’s targeted 29 times a game and catches everything (except during Super Bowl defining final drives that is).  He is an integral part of the New England Offensive Machine, and there is no reason to think he won’t catch 100 balls.  The touchdowns may be down a tick with Lloyd in town and their two-headed TE monster doing their thing, but you can always seem to pencil him in for 7 catches a game and solid yardage totals.
  1. Roddy White (100/1296/8/178) – Roddy Roddy Roddy!  It speaks volumes to the depth of the receiver position this year when you have a guy that is coming off back-to-back 100+ catch (and 178 target) seasons as your #9 receiver.  As it sits now, The Machine just can’t get over the potential (and youth/stud factor) of the guys ranked above Roddy.  We would certainly have no qualms with Roddy as a WR1 on our squads this year, as Matty Ice and he have as strong a connection as any QB-WR combo in the league.  But there could be a slight regression in his numbers as the offense (and Julio Jones) evolves.
  1. Percy Harvin (87/967/6/119) – Percy, bro, you’re not going anywhere.  With AP nicked up you are the only juice that offense has left!  The Machine loves versatile players that play angry and have imaginary headaches to get out of practices; and guess who fits that description?  Ding, ding, ding.  Percy is a jack-of-all trades, master of most! To go along with the listed stats, Percy also had 520 return yards, 1 return TD, 345 rushing yards (on 52 attempts) and 2 rushing TDs.  It certainly took offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave long enough to figure out how to utilize Harvin; he only had 43 targets in the first half of the season compared to 76 in the second half.  With AP on the mend, the “migraines” under control and the O-coordinator on board, it could be a monster season for Harvin.

2012 Top 10 Fantasy TEs

People ask the Machine all the time:  when should I draft a TE?  The answer, much like the answer to “is she hot” and “do you think I have a shot” is:  it depends.  Most Fantasy Football “experts” will tell you not to draft a TE until at least Round 5.  That’s sooo 2005, and the Machine is here to call bullshit on that outdated thinking.  Like Shakira’s hips, the numbers don’t lie.  The new-age TEs have become an integral part of the passing game…and are more than just big, dumb meatheads that block and occasionally run the seam.  In some cases they are the first option in the offense (see 49ers, San Francisco).  In fact, 4 of the Machine’s Top 10 are from the c2010 Draft.  Fact: top flight TE’s should be viewed as #1 WRs.  Here are the Machine’s Top 10 TEs for 2012 (Receptions/Yards/TDs).

1.  Rob Gronkowski (90/1327/17).  Gronk had more TDs than Megatron, and more receptions than Fitz.  Case closed.  Always thought of as having first round talent, Gronk dropped to the second round in 2010 due to injury concerns.  However, in his first two years in the league, he’s never missed a game, proof that the NFL has the best trainers (and access to pain meds) in all of sport.  Whatever the reason, he’s Tom Brady’s go to target in the red zone, and an integral part of the Pats offense.  Look for Gronk to reign supreme as your 2012 TE fantasy champ.

2.  Jimmy Graham (99/1310/11).  There was a lot of hype about Jimmy at the beginning of last year, and he more than backed it up.  Jimmy thing finished #3 in receptions, in the entire fucking league, trailing only Wes (“token”) Welker (122) and Roddy White (100).  Perhaps even more impressive, Jimmy led the pass-happy Saints in receptions, yards, and tds.  Another year in that high octane offense should only further increase his role.  You heard it here first:  Jimmy will top triple digits in receptions this year.  Jimmy and Gronk are in a class by themselves.

3.  Jermichael Finley (55/767/8).  Jermichael was finally healthy for an entire season, and backed it up with some solid numbers.  Although there are several TEs that had more productivity in 2011, 2012 is all about projecting baby…and the Machine likes what Jermichael’s selling…we also like saying Jermichael, it’s right up there as one of the top made up names that begin with “Jer” (a close second to Jermajesty Jackson).  Anyway, Jermichael, if healthy, should shine in 2012.  With Donald Driver taking on even less of a role, Jermichael is definitely the #2 passing option behind Greg Jennings.  And, because the Packers rotate so many WRs in and out, he’s going to be on the field more than Jordy Nelson or James Jones, leading to more balls going his way on a consistent basis.  Certainly not on the level of Gronk or Graham (now is where you start drafting a TE in Round 5) look for Jermichael to have a dramatic increase in production, surprising many, but not the Machine or its loyal fan base.

4.  Jason Witten (79/942/5).  You simply can’t go wrong with Witten on your team.  What’s not to like about him (except that he’s a Cowboy)?  He puts up consistently solid numbers, has only missed one game his entire career (and that was back in 2005) and he’s Tony Romo’s best friend.  That bromance leads to action (on the field of course).  While his numbers were down compared to the two previous seasons where he caught 94 balls and had 1,000+ yards each year, he’s still Tony’s “roommate” on road trips, and that close, plutonic bond should continue to produce solid fantasy numbers, and whispers in the locker room.

5.  Vernon Davis (67/792/6).  Vernon blurs the distinction between TE and WR, probably more so than anyone on this list.  Not just because he has the speed and route running ability of a WR along with the power of a TE on his chiseled 6’3”, 250 lb frame, but also because he’s a diva, which is traditionally reserved only for WRs.  Sorry Vernon, but there’s no crying in football, unless you’re Dick Vermeil or a WR, and Vernon’s post-game crying after catching the winning touchdown against the Saints is more T.O. than Vermeil.  Don’t forget he was banished to the locker room DURING A GAME.  Also, do a google image search for Vernon Davis and you’ll see just how into himself he is…either that, or he doesn’t realize he has enough money to buy a shirt.  While this would normally get him top diva honors on most teams, Vernon ranks #3 on the niners in that regard (behind Randy Moss and wanna-be Randy Moss Michael Crabtree).  Whatever, you’re not drafting for personality, you’re drafting for results, and although Vernon had career lows in receptions, yards, and tds in 2011, he’s still the best receiver (and athlete) on the 49ers offense, and even with Alex Smith at the helm, Vernon should get his.  Look for Vernon to get back to his usual stats, roughly high 70’s/900/10.

6.  Brandon Pettigrew (83/777/5).  The Machine is a big Pettigrew fan.  He had a banner 2011, with career highs in receptions, yards, and tds.  He has the talent to be a top 3 TE.  The only thing holding him back is Megatron, who (rightfully) is the first, second, and third option, especially in the red zone.  From a fantasy perspective, this makes it unlikely for Brandon to crack double digit tds, which is what separates the great from the good.  Still, there’s plenty of balls for him to catch in that offense, and he seems to have developed good chemistry with Stafford.

7.  Jermaine Gresham (56/596/6).  Jermaine should improve upon his 2011 stats.  With Jerome Simpson no longer flipping over folks (or slinging the rock) in Cincinnati, Gresham becomes the #2 passing option behind dynamo A.J. Green.  One knock on Jermaine is durability…he’s yet to play a full season.  If healthy, the sky’s the limit.  There’s a good, young, offensive nucleus in Cincy, think of them as a poor man’s Detroit Lions (did you ever think you’d say that?).  What this amounts to is greater involvement, and production, from Jermaine.

8.  Tony Gonzalez (80/875/7).  At age 97 (ok 36 but still that’s fucking old for a TE) you would think Tony would break down by now.  I get it.  He’s old.  How old?  Well, when he came into the league (1997), the Machine was in college, Bill Clinton had yet to be blown by Monica (we think), and the number one song was Mo Money Mo Problems.  That’s how old Gonzo is.  However, the dude doesn’t break down.  Out of a possible 240 regular season games, he’s played in 238.  And he hasn’t slowed down like so many of his contemporaries.  He’s been with Atlanta for three years, and has averaged 77/799/6.  Oh, and he hasn’t missed a game as a Falcon.  Look for Tony go have a 2012 similar to his three year average.  Not bad for a dude born during the Carter administration.

9.  Antonio Gates (64/778/7).  For sure the best undrafted TE of all-time, for years Antonio has been at the top of the fantasy TE list.  However, although he’s 4 years his junior, Antonio is the anti-Tony Gonzalez.  Injuries have taken toll (he hasn’t played a full season since 2009), and Antonio should no longer be thought of as a top flight TE.  Notwithstanding, he’s still a good TE and, when healthy, a very productive one.  The Machine sees him coming into the twilight of his career.  Age, plus injury concerns, means you’ll soon be talking about the games on Sunday instead of playing in them.

10.  Aaron Hernandez (79/910/7).  Hernandez not only bookends the Patriots on this list (something that before last year would be unheard of) but he rounds out the solid class of 2010 TEs, along with Gronk, Jimmy, and Jermaine.  He makes the Top 10 even though he’s the #2 TE on his team (again, something that’s unheard of).  Don’t let that scare you too much.  The Patriots do things differently because they can, and Hernandez is in line to put up solid numbers again.  He hasn’t played a full season yet, and that’s pause for some concern, but Tom Brady loves to spread the ball around, so, if healthy, he should have no problems putting up solid numbers.

2012 Top 10 Fantasy RBs

While The Machine may have been slow to recognize the housing bubble burst (anyone looking for a $900k, 700 square-foot condo in the greater San Francisco area?) we were all over the Running Back Bubble! While the other “experts” were ramming the RB-RB Theory down your throat, The Machine was collecting stud QBs, WRs, TEs, and – most importantly – Championships! Because of the pass happy, spread look, 2-RB offensive systems it is more critical than ever to hit homeruns with your tailbacks. Here’s the Top 10 heading into the 2012 season (Total Yards/Total TDs/Receptions)

1. Arian Foster (1841/10/53) – Consider The Machine part of the Arian Nation! What’s not to love? Strength between the tackles, burst to turn the corner, soft hands, nimble feet, just enough wiggle to make people miss and he tweets pictures of his injuries! That’s my definition of an all purpose back. That looming hamstring injury at the start of the regular season scared some people away. But the “gamblers” (The Machine faithful) undoubtedly rode this beast to the playoffs. Time to double-down and grab this stud early (like first overall) and watch the wins pile up.

2. LeSean McCoy (1624/20/48) – Andy Reid will never win a Super bowl, but man this guy has the Midas touch for producing uber-productive fantasy tailbacks; from Brian Westbrook to LeSean McCoy. Hell, even Duce Staley was relevant! While it will be hard for LaShady to top last years numbers (come on, 20 TDs!), he’ll make up for it with an increase in receptions and receiving yards. Philly’s offense is reminiscent of a Tecmo Bowl squad, with LaShady playing the roll of Bo Jackson. As a bonus their offensive line coach is back for another year as the defense coordinator. This team will have to score a lot of points to have a chance.

3. Ray Rice (2068/15/76) – The Ravens are going to have a major identity crisis this year. They’ve had a ton of success as a ground and pound offense, with a dominating defense to back them up. However, the defense has some glaring holes (namely their senor citizen line backing corps and secondary) and is going to be a liability this year, putting the offense in a bad spot: playing from behind. The Machine has little faith in Joe Flacco and his merry crew: Bolden (slow), Evans (crusty), Smith (Mr. Go-Route). The silver lining to all of this is that Ray Rice will be a major part of every game plan and the production will continue. His fantasy floor is high (in standard scoring leagues he scored 14+ fantasy points in 13 of 16 games), and his durability is a fantasy asset (has played in every game for 3 straight years); being able to plug in your studs each and every week is huge.

4. Chris Johnson (1465/4/57) – Which CJ28 is going to show up, the 2009-10 sensational speedster or the 2011 oft-maligned version? With a top 5 ranking The Machines stance is pretty clear; we’re willing to bet on a 27 year old feature back that already has two 1600+ yards from scrimmage seasons under his belt, 42 trips to pay dirt, and sub 4.3 speed. Sign us up for the 1500 yards and double-digit scores please!

5. Daren McFadden (768/5/19) – What do we love about Run DMC (other than his ridiculously awesome nickname)? That stat line is for 7 games. Extrapolated over a full season that’s some of the charts production (1755, 11, 43). What do we hate about Run DMC? That stat line is for 7 games. Homeboy is currently the biggest tease in the fantasy world. He burned a lot of bridges for fantasy teams in the second half of last year. So why the aggressive ranking when the injury whistle is blaring? Because The Machine is concerned with one thing: Winning Championships. Run DMC has two things going for him this year that he has never had before: a competent front office and an empowered coaching staff. No more Big Al calling the ‘H-back sweep left’ from the Owners Box play after play, series after series. Sure, it might mean fewer touches per game, but more games overall. Run DMC Run!

6. Ryan Mathews (1646/6/42) – Mathews 2011 season went a long way to prove that he isn’t as big of a pussy as we thought he was after 2010. He fully showcased his skills and justified the Chargers move up to grab him 12 overall in 2010. Despite his propensity to put the ball on the ground at a Tiki Barberesque pace (13:10 TD to fumble ratio), his head coach hasn’t updated the playbook since 1996 (read: run heavy) and Mike Tolbert is now a Panther. Mathews is primed to take the next step.

7. Maurice Jones-Drew (1980/11/43) – One of The Machines all time favorites, and your 2011 NFL Rushing Title Champ. MJD is built like a brick house and can squat a Volkswagen. So what’s holding him back from claiming a higher spot on this list? Well, in alphabetical order: Bratkowski (Bob), Eben (Britton), Gabbert (Blaine), Gabbert (Blaine), Gabbert (Blaine), Monroe (Eugene), Mularky (Mike), Smith (Gene)….

8. Trent Richardson (Rookie) – When I die I hope I’m reincarnated as a 1950’s NFL Hall of Fame running back so that I can get a free pass to be a terrible actor and say as much horseshit to the media as Jim Brown does. Seriously Jim, do yourself a favor, toss the League of Nations hat in the washing machine and check yourself into a retirement home. I’m sure you’ll be a real terror on the shuffleboard court. This ranking alone tells you everything you need to know about this Richardson. He is special running back and is going to be a workhorse from day one.

9. Matt Forte (1487/4/52) – The Machine can’t blame Matt Forte for wanting to get paid; he’s among the league leaders in touches per game (21.25 touches/game) and makes the most of his touches (117 yards/game). He has produced (in fantasy & reality) like a franchise caliber running back and now he wants his bank. The Machine also can’t blame the Bears for not wanting to pay him. Sure, the production outpaced the Contract, but isn’t that the point?! Has hit the 1000 touches mile marker and broke down at the end of next year. The Bears made a leverage play with the Michael Bush signing (4 years, $14M…..$7M guaranteed), so this situation could get real ugly. We love what Forte brings to the field, but this ranking comes with a giant asterisk next to it. Stay tuned.

10. Adrian Peterson (1109/13/18) – We all know what ‘All Day’ was capable of BEFORE reconstructive knee surgery. Over the last two seasons AP has averaged a healthy 16 fantasy points per game despite playing behind arguably the worst offensive line in football, and dealing with the Brett Favre-Donovan McNabb-Christian Ponder experiment. This is another situation worth monitoring, but if Peterson is running and cutting in training camp and/or preseason The Machine has no qualms tabbing him the #10 fantasy running back.

2012 Top 10 Fantasy QBs

The Machine has researched, reviewed, watched game tape and watched it again to provide you with the Top 10 Fantasy QBs (note: this is fantasy, not real life.  That’s why Tony Romo’s in the Top 10).  Note, next to each player’s name is their 2011 stats (yards/tds/ints).

1. Aaron Rodgers (4,643/45/6).  A-Rod (you know, the clutch, non-steroid A-Rod) stands on top of the fantasy football world.  Not only are his 2011 stats phenomenal (don’t forget he also had 3 rushing tds…that’s nearly 50 tds of production), but the 2012 Pack should be much like the 2011 Pack…a powerhouse pass first offense with multiple weapons.  The running game continues to be mediocre, leaving little room for doubt as to what drives this team.

2.  Tom Brady (5235/39/12).  In real life, as long as Tom Tom’s not playing the G-Men, he’s a winner.  In fantasyland, he’s a winner every day (arguably, with 3 superbowl victories and Gisele as a wife, he’s a winner in real life too).  Much like the Packers, the Patriots are loaded at receiving weapons and have an almost non-existent rushing game.  5,000+ yards again is not out of the question.   Perhaps most impressive, in clutch time (defined in fantasy as Weeks 14-16) he averaged 327 yards and 2 touchdowns per game.

3.  Matthew Stafford (5,038/41/16).  Is it possible to quietly throw for over 5,000 yards and 40+ tds?  It is if you’re Matthew Stafford.  Stafford showed what he could when healthy.  Playing a full season for the first time in his pro career, Stafford shattered all doubts that he’s a franchise QB.  He’s only 24 years old, and hasn’t even reached his prime.  The only concern with him is his health, and he showed last season that he can play through pain.  If healthy, the sky’s the limit.  And with Megatron, he’s a threat to post huge numbers week in and week out.

4.  Eli Manning (4,933/29/16).  This ain’t yo daddy’s New York Giants.  Gone are the ground and pound Giants.  The G-Men are unquestionably a pass-heavy offense.  It only took 2 Superbowl MVPs, but Eli is finally getting recognition as a Top 5 QB.  Fantasy-wise, he’s also getting respect as a baller.  Averaging more than 300 yards per game last year, there’s no reason to believe why he won’t provide the same amount of fantasy success in 2012.  The running game has not improved from last year, which, for the record, was the worst in the NFL.  However, the passing game is still solid.  Nicks is a stud.  Same with Cruz.  And the G-Men will find others to step up to replace Manningham and Ballard (just like they did when Steve Smith and Kevin Boss left).  The only knock on Fantasy-Eli is his interceptions, which he did cut down by 9 when compared to 2010.  Look for that trend to continue this year.

5.  Drew Brees (5,476/46/14).  Like most people who were smart enough to have Brees on their team (like yours truly) he responded by almost single-handedly bringing you a fantasy championship.  He set the all-time record for passing yards, averaging a ridiculous 346 yards per game.  Why then, does the Machine have Drew rated the #5 QB?  Well, what a difference a few months make.  Thus far, Drew has been a no-show at OTAs…fist deep in an epic fight with management (seriously why haven’t they signed him to a long term deal yet?).  On top of that, the coaching staff (and team morale) have been gutted thanks to Bounty-gate, and Drew very well may not show up to work until August.  All this adds up to a down year for the reigning fantasy QB champ.  That said, he is Drew Brees, and should still be able to put up Top-5 stats, however many will overreach and take him as the first or second QB off the board.  Expectations must be tempered.

6. Cam Newton (4,051/21/17).  Cam was simply a stud in his rookie year, more than validating his selection as the #1 pick in the 2011 Draft.  He was even more impressive fantasy-wise.  What has most people salivating was his 14 rushing tds (and 735 rushing yards) to back up his solid passing numbers.  Double-digit rushing tds for a QB is fantasy crack, and Cam should continue to be a dual threat QB in year 2, thus more than worthy as the #6 fantasy QB.

7.  Tony Romo (4,184/31/10).  If you’re a real football fan, you don’t want Tony Romo under center.  He has this cavalier approach to quarterbacking that drives you crazy, as well as an ability to not show up when it matters most.  As a fantasy football fan, however, you have no problems with Tony at the helm.  The Cowboys are stacked with weapons, Bryant and Austin are a formidable 1-2 punch, and Witten is arguably the best safety valve in the league.  Tony should be able to consistently deliver solid fantasy numbers, just don’t expect that to equate to real success.

8.  Philip Rivers (4,624/27/20).  Rivers has averaged nearly 4,400 yards and 30 tds over the past 4 years.  This is an impressive display of high-level consistency.  However, there are some warning signs which indicate that that he may be south of those numbers this year.  Vincent Jackson is gone, and Antono Gates is a year older with lingering health issues.  They’ve added Roscoe Parrish and Robert Meacham, but neither of them have ever been (or are) #1 WRs.  Rivers is a gunslinger, he just doesn’t have the ammunition to be a Top-flight fantasy QB.

9.  Peyton Manning (0/0/0).  Is there a bigger risk/reward pick in fantasy football this year?  The fact that Peyton didn’t take a snap last year, but is still a consensus Top-10 fantasy QB, is proof of his greatness, and proof that people think he’s back (or as close to back as he can be) to the old Peyton.  We got to believe Peyton has too much pride to come back and not be in top form.  The ultimate professional and student of the game, changing teams shouldn’t affect him at all.  Emerging WR Demayrious Thomas should absolutely thrive with Peyton under center, and Eric Decker and Jacob Tamme will resemble Brandon Stokely and Dwight Clark, respectively.  Peyton simply makes those around him better.  Notwithstanding, dude’s had 4 neck surgeries in the last 18 months, and he’s just one bounty away from sipping applesauce through a straw.  If you draft him, make sure you have a serviceable back up.  Buyer beware.

10.  Ryan Fitzpatrick (3,832/24/23).  There are many QBs worthy of the #10 spot (Michael Vick, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan), but the Machine gives the nod to Fitz.  Call us a Bill-iever, but we like what’s going on in Buffalo.  We also like the pass-catching RBs in Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, who each caught 39 balls last year.  Over his first 8 games, before Fitz cracked two ribs in Week 8, he was averaging nearly 250 yards per game with 14 tds.  In the ensuing 9 games after rib-gate, Fitz dropped to 232 yards a game and 10 tds.  He needs to cut down on the ints (you would think an Ivy League grad wouldn’t make so many bad decisions) but another year and Chan’s offense should help to reduce that number.  Look for Fitz to return to his pre-cracked ribs form in 2012.