The Machine has researched, reviewed, watched game tape and watched it again to provide you with the Top 10 Fantasy QBs (note: this is fantasy, not real life. That’s why Tony Romo’s in the Top 10). Note, next to each player’s name is their 2011 stats (yards/tds/ints).
1. Aaron Rodgers (4,643/45/6). A-Rod (you know, the clutch, non-steroid A-Rod) stands on top of the fantasy football world. Not only are his 2011 stats phenomenal (don’t forget he also had 3 rushing tds…that’s nearly 50 tds of production), but the 2012 Pack should be much like the 2011 Pack…a powerhouse pass first offense with multiple weapons. The running game continues to be mediocre, leaving little room for doubt as to what drives this team.
2. Tom Brady (5235/39/12). In real life, as long as Tom Tom’s not playing the G-Men, he’s a winner. In fantasyland, he’s a winner every day (arguably, with 3 superbowl victories and Gisele as a wife, he’s a winner in real life too). Much like the Packers, the Patriots are loaded at receiving weapons and have an almost non-existent rushing game. 5,000+ yards again is not out of the question. Perhaps most impressive, in clutch time (defined in fantasy as Weeks 14-16) he averaged 327 yards and 2 touchdowns per game.
3. Matthew Stafford (5,038/41/16). Is it possible to quietly throw for over 5,000 yards and 40+ tds? It is if you’re Matthew Stafford. Stafford showed what he could when healthy. Playing a full season for the first time in his pro career, Stafford shattered all doubts that he’s a franchise QB. He’s only 24 years old, and hasn’t even reached his prime. The only concern with him is his health, and he showed last season that he can play through pain. If healthy, the sky’s the limit. And with Megatron, he’s a threat to post huge numbers week in and week out.
4. Eli Manning (4,933/29/16). This ain’t yo daddy’s New York Giants. Gone are the ground and pound Giants. The G-Men are unquestionably a pass-heavy offense. It only took 2 Superbowl MVPs, but Eli is finally getting recognition as a Top 5 QB. Fantasy-wise, he’s also getting respect as a baller. Averaging more than 300 yards per game last year, there’s no reason to believe why he won’t provide the same amount of fantasy success in 2012. The running game has not improved from last year, which, for the record, was the worst in the NFL. However, the passing game is still solid. Nicks is a stud. Same with Cruz. And the G-Men will find others to step up to replace Manningham and Ballard (just like they did when Steve Smith and Kevin Boss left). The only knock on Fantasy-Eli is his interceptions, which he did cut down by 9 when compared to 2010. Look for that trend to continue this year.
5. Drew Brees (5,476/46/14). Like most people who were smart enough to have Brees on their team (like yours truly) he responded by almost single-handedly bringing you a fantasy championship. He set the all-time record for passing yards, averaging a ridiculous 346 yards per game. Why then, does the Machine have Drew rated the #5 QB? Well, what a difference a few months make. Thus far, Drew has been a no-show at OTAs…fist deep in an epic fight with management (seriously why haven’t they signed him to a long term deal yet?). On top of that, the coaching staff (and team morale) have been gutted thanks to Bounty-gate, and Drew very well may not show up to work until August. All this adds up to a down year for the reigning fantasy QB champ. That said, he is Drew Brees, and should still be able to put up Top-5 stats, however many will overreach and take him as the first or second QB off the board. Expectations must be tempered.
6. Cam Newton (4,051/21/17). Cam was simply a stud in his rookie year, more than validating his selection as the #1 pick in the 2011 Draft. He was even more impressive fantasy-wise. What has most people salivating was his 14 rushing tds (and 735 rushing yards) to back up his solid passing numbers. Double-digit rushing tds for a QB is fantasy crack, and Cam should continue to be a dual threat QB in year 2, thus more than worthy as the #6 fantasy QB.
7. Tony Romo (4,184/31/10). If you’re a real football fan, you don’t want Tony Romo under center. He has this cavalier approach to quarterbacking that drives you crazy, as well as an ability to not show up when it matters most. As a fantasy football fan, however, you have no problems with Tony at the helm. The Cowboys are stacked with weapons, Bryant and Austin are a formidable 1-2 punch, and Witten is arguably the best safety valve in the league. Tony should be able to consistently deliver solid fantasy numbers, just don’t expect that to equate to real success.
8. Philip Rivers (4,624/27/20). Rivers has averaged nearly 4,400 yards and 30 tds over the past 4 years. This is an impressive display of high-level consistency. However, there are some warning signs which indicate that that he may be south of those numbers this year. Vincent Jackson is gone, and Antono Gates is a year older with lingering health issues. They’ve added Roscoe Parrish and Robert Meacham, but neither of them have ever been (or are) #1 WRs. Rivers is a gunslinger, he just doesn’t have the ammunition to be a Top-flight fantasy QB.
9. Peyton Manning (0/0/0). Is there a bigger risk/reward pick in fantasy football this year? The fact that Peyton didn’t take a snap last year, but is still a consensus Top-10 fantasy QB, is proof of his greatness, and proof that people think he’s back (or as close to back as he can be) to the old Peyton. We got to believe Peyton has too much pride to come back and not be in top form. The ultimate professional and student of the game, changing teams shouldn’t affect him at all. Emerging WR Demayrious Thomas should absolutely thrive with Peyton under center, and Eric Decker and Jacob Tamme will resemble Brandon Stokely and Dwight Clark, respectively. Peyton simply makes those around him better. Notwithstanding, dude’s had 4 neck surgeries in the last 18 months, and he’s just one bounty away from sipping applesauce through a straw. If you draft him, make sure you have a serviceable back up. Buyer beware.
10. Ryan Fitzpatrick (3,832/24/23). There are many QBs worthy of the #10 spot (Michael Vick, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan), but the Machine gives the nod to Fitz. Call us a Bill-iever, but we like what’s going on in Buffalo. We also like the pass-catching RBs in Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, who each caught 39 balls last year. Over his first 8 games, before Fitz cracked two ribs in Week 8, he was averaging nearly 250 yards per game with 14 tds. In the ensuing 9 games after rib-gate, Fitz dropped to 232 yards a game and 10 tds. He needs to cut down on the ints (you would think an Ivy League grad wouldn’t make so many bad decisions) but another year and Chan’s offense should help to reduce that number. Look for Fitz to return to his pre-cracked ribs form in 2012.