Betting on the Draft will be at record levels tonight and through the weekend, as our sports-deprived country needs something to bet on.  If you’re one of the lucky one that lives in a state that allows mobile betting, congratulations.  Your self-isolation just got way more awesome.  Note:  this is the only time that I ever wished I lived in New Jersey. 

Ready to put that stimulus check to good use?  Here are our top bets for the Draft.  We’re using odds from Draft Kings Sportsbook. 

Total RBs Drafted in First Round (0.5) (Over -186, Under +150)

I’m all over the “Over” on this one.  This comes down to whether you believe D’Andre Swift will get drafted in the first round.  I think he’s a lock to go in the first round.  As a bonus bet, the line on D’Andre Swift’s draft position is 33.5 (-118).  I would hit the “Under” on that.  He’s going in the first round.

Total OL Drafted in the First Round (6.5) (Over -167, Under +137)

I’m going Under, especially at an attractive +137.  After the Top 4 offensive linemen, there’s a bit of a drop off.  This one will be close. I think 6 will be the magic number, and guys like Cesar Ruiz and Austin Jackson will slip into the second round.

Tua Tagovailoa Draft Pick (5.5) (Over +110, Under -134)

Lots of talk about Tua sliding past 5.  This line may shift throughout the day, but at +110, it’s worth a little scratch to bet the Over.

Jeff Okudah Draft Pick (4.5) (Over -134, Under 4.5)

Over all day.  The list of cornerbacks picked in the Top 4 spots is slim.  Two words: Positional value.  Cornerbacks don’t impact the game to the same extent as other positions (QB, DL, OL).  While Detroit may end up with Okudah, I don’t think it will be at #3.

Total Alabama Players Drafted in First Round (5.5) (Over +110, Under -134)

There are 4 Alabama first round locks (Tua, Will, Jeudy, Ruggs).  The next 2 Crimson Tide to be drafted should be Xavier McKinney and Trevon Diggs.  My money’s on that one of them slips into Round 2.

Exact order of First 3 Wide Receivers. 

Love this.  Getting in to multiple picks ups the degree of difficulty, and also the payout.  Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs is the consensus, and at +300, it’s a good bet.  I also think Justin Jefferson has a shot to be the third receive taken, so I would also throw in a Lamb/Jeudy/Jefferson combo, which pays out at +1100. Also at +1100 is Jeudy/Lamb/Jefferson.

Happy betting!

This is not a drill, we’re 5 days out from real virtual NFL Draft 2020! These GMs get to deal with all the work-from-home pleasantry’s the rest of us have put up with: children bouncing of the walls, pets annoyed that you’re ruining their nap schedule, endless emails and calls from co-workers whom can’t figure out their own shit, amazon delivery trucks driving up and down the street and your spouse….just doing spouse things (what, Mrs. Rage reads this shit too!)….

And like the rest of us, by 8 PM on a Thursday, I hope they don’t do their best work sober….

I’m still going with Simmons to the Lions at 3. I think they’d love to slide down a few slots, still nab a blue-chip prospect and pick up a few extra draft picks, but won’t find a willing dance partner. Simmons is the ultimate “position-less” defender that can be deployed all over the field in any given situation. A true difference-maker, and how many of those does Detroit have?

There are very few scenarios where I don’t see the Giants and Cardinals taking and OT. Both Wills and Wirfs are day-one starters (and upgrades) for both teams, and help ensure the protection, growth and development of second-year QBs. I do like the fit of Derrick Brown for the Cardinals, but the Panthers snipe him in this mock.

Jalen Ramsey’s (much cheaper) replacement falls right into the Jaguar’s lap as they happily end Okudah’s mini-slide. I fully anticipate Ruggs, Lamb and Jeudy to be gone in the first half of the first round. I think Jeudy is the best of the bunch, but can see the Jets getting intoxicated with Ruggs’ speed; the Raiders going for the we-just-moved-to-Vegas-and-want-to-put-on-a-show type of player in Lamb. A second mock, a second OT for the Tompa Bay Bucs. Barf.

You could flip-flop Kinlaw and Chaisson, as both of those players make a ton for sense for either the Falcons or Cowboys. Josh Jones makes it five tackles in the first 18 picks. Even after being the most active team in free agency, the Dolphins have no shortage of holes to fill and none more pressing than OL. After next weekend they could have three new offensive linemen, all of which will probably start Week 1. This pairing of players to team, from 19 – 22 is my favorite. The Raiders need another corner…Queen gives the Jags a presence up the middle…Carson Wentz will be doing back flips and shots of grape juice to celebrate getting a WR…and the Vikings love drafting DBs. Jordan Love is the hardest player to peg. Is there a team willing to go up to into the first half of the draft to grab him? Would the Patriots and Saints pass on him at 23 and 24, respectively? I can’t see it happening. This feels like his floor.

These last 8 picks are fluid. I’ve only got 3 of the same players in this grouping compared to Ginger King’s Mock Draft 2.0 (although we both are calling our shot with Kenneth Murray to the Ravens). Since I have the Vikings grabbing a DB at 22, I give them a WR to fill the void left by Stefan Diggs. The Dolphins continue to remake their offense, and take a play-maker in Swift whom can take the pressure off Tua. Seattle is going to take the athletic-freak of their liking, I give them the uber-talented Jeremy Chinn but who knows, they are the hardest team to figure out. I’m lower on Kristian Fulton than most, but the patient teams in the bottom quarter of the draft can pounce one guys that slip a bit and get some great value.

Alright, we’re back at it. Still quarantined, still working from home, and still trying to thread that needle of parent/teacher/caregiver (have you seen my kids?). On the plus side, I can now add “Professional Day Drinker” to my LinkedIn profile.

Anyway, we’re almost one week away from the Draft, you know, the event that not even a worldwide pandemic could postpone. Here’s our updated mock. Note: no trades are shown (yet), however, the first round will be full of them, especially at the top half, as teams will try to leapfrog over Miami each other to get Tua or Herbert. Obvious trading partners are Detroit and the Giants; both of whom should be whoring themselves out to drop back a few spots and collect additional draft picks.

As recommended by Roid Rage, I used the Mock Draft Simulator from the good people at Draft Networks. If you haven’t yet, get on over there and check it out.

Burrow and Young are locks at 1 and 2, respectively. 3 and 4 are where things start to get interesting. Simmons’ malleability to play anywhere on the defense could be too tempting for the Lions to pass up. The Giants should have their pick of Offensive Lineman…here, Joe Judge will rely on his Alabama connection and trust Nick Saban that Wills is the most pro-ready lineman. The Dolphins would be ecstatic to get Tua without having to trade up.

The run on wide receivers should begin just outside of the Top 10 (and maybe sooner if those OBJ trade rumors are true). Tompa Bay (god, he hasn’t even suited up yet and he’s already annoying) would run to the podium if Becton fell to them at 14.

Book this: Jordan Love will be a first round pick. With the exception of Philly, Minnesota, and Dallas (depending on what happens with Dak), all of the teams from 17-24 could use him, as well as some other teams at the end of the first round, like Green Bay. Philly has to come away with a receiver. Justin Jefferson is a nice consolation prize, if one of the Top 3 receivers don’t slip. The Jags overhaul their defense with a 1-2 punch of Derrick Brown and Grant Delpit, to help stop the bleeding from the loss of Jalen Ramsey and (soon to be) loss of Yannick Ngakoue.

D’Andre Swift has been flying up the boards…and come draft night, I would not be surprised if he ends up going in the middle/late first round. He would fit in perfectly with the Chiefs.

So far I’ve spent this April trying to best my own record for how many Oreo’s I can fit in my mouth (5), rebooted my computer 87,000 times thanks to IT “patches” and have come to the realization that people whom home-school their children are crazier than Joe Exotic!

I need this Draft. We all need this Draft. We need the drama, intrigue and suspense.  Couple that with a worldwide pandemic that has GM’s drafting via Zoom, and you’ve got the recipe for an epic shitshow.  God I wish Al Davis were around for this!  R.I.P. AL.  Alas, there are still plenty of GMs that are going to fuck this up….looking at you Gettleman.  Over/Under on “my account was hacked” excuses?  2.5?

Onto the mock!  I used Draft Networks ridiculously awesome Mock Draft Simulator to put this together…….

Burrow and Young are locked and loaded to go one, two. I don’t buy the rumor of the Skins’ taking Tua. Young is the best player in the draft and will make an impact similar to Joey Bosa (and they’d rather have Lawrence next year!).

Okudah to the Lions makes so much sense that I can’t see the Lions actually going through with it. They don’t necessarily draft the best player, but they seem to have a thing for “break the mold” types (like taking Hockenson over Ed Oliver last year)…. probably to feed Matt Patricia’s mad scientist persona.

That’s five offensive tackles in the first 14 picks. Listen, the Bucs entire draft plan (and team building strategy) changed with the signing of Brady. Their window is THIS year. The defense is talented and they have play-makers at receiver and tight-end. Pick 14 will be and offensive linemen or a RB. Book it.

Rick Spielman has two first round picks….guarantee he drafts at least one DB. And there it is, at Pick 23 Belichick ushers in a new era.

Love this haul for the Dolphins: Herbert, Kinlaw and Jones. Yessir!

Welcome back everyone.  How’s the self-isolation going?  If it’s anything like ours, you spend your days yelling at your kids and your Boomer parents about the importance of quarantining.  No mom, it’s no ok if you just go to your Condo Association Happy Hour “for just a little bit.”  Seriously, we should build a wall around Florida.

In all honestly, this whole COVID thing wasn’t really impacting my daily activities or outlook on life, until it started to impact the Draft.  Now, shit’s getting real.  It’s the age old question:  Who blinks first when a worldwide pandemic threatens the greatest sporting event of the year?  I’ll tell you who doesn’t:  Roger Goodell.  There is nothing this man can’t do.  Need proof of this man’s greatness?  How about the recent CBA vote.  What’s Roger’s answer to combating player safety?  Two words:  More.  Football.  And the players approved it. 

So you just knew what his response was going to be when everyone said the Draft would have to be postponed.  No fucking way.  The show goes on because RG1 says so.  Sure, the public’s not invited, Kiper and McShay have to be 6 feet apart, and the home office is now the war room.  But none of that matters.  Despite all of the inconveniences that will occur during the 2020 Draft, what the people need is football.  Our society is starved for sports.  Ginger King’s wife busted him watching Esports (loves me some Evil Geniuses).  It’s bad.  Real bad.  The Commissioner knows this, and that’s why the 2020 Draft will be the most watched draft in history.  To use an analogy from a sport everyone has already forgotten, all the man does is hit dingers.

Anyway, we have much to catch up on.  Usually, we like to start with just the tip, and give you our Top 10 picks.  However, we’re going balls deep (just like this year’s WR and OL class).  Here’s my entire first round mock. 

Scouting Profile:
Tyler Swart – QB, Missouri S&T Miners
6’4″, 260 lbs
Great Lakes Valley Conference

2018 Stats:  212/331, 2,936 yards, 29 tds, 10 ints
2018 Record:  10-2 (Mineral Water Bowl Champions)
Bowl Game Stats:  13/22, 212 yards, 4 tds, 0 ints, 1 rushing td
School Records: Attempts, Completions, Completion %, Yards, and Touchdowns

Tyler Swart’s been chasing the dream of playing professional football for a long time.  His family moved from New York to Texas (a/k/a the Mecca of High School Football) when Tyler was in high school in order to give him a better opportunity. And the move paid off. After a prolific career at Division II Missouri Science & Tech, where he set several school passing records, and which culminated in a convincing 51-16 win in the Mineral Water Bowl over Minnesota State-Moorhead, Tyler is keeping the dream alive, and working to get to the next level.  But first, he faces his biggest challenge yet:  an interview with the Big Red Sports Machine.  We fired up the Big Red Sports Machine conference call to talk with Tyler about his career and what lies ahead.

Tyler, congrats on an amazing collegiate career.  Talk to us a little about your journey.

Thank you.  I loved it, and wouldn’t change a thing.  I felt that, me personally and as a team, we fought through a lot of adversity.  When I first came to Missouri S&T, the coach that originally recruited me left, and a new coaching staff came in.  I had to work to gain their trust and confidence, which was an unexpected challenge for me and my teammates.  But I enjoyed every minute of it.

What made you pick Missouri S&T?

I had offers from a few schools, some DI and DII programs, but my other passion besides football is engineering, specifically petroleum engineering, and I wanted to find a school that could further both my playing and academic needs, and Missouri S&T was the perfect fit. 

Who would you say your game compares to at the pro level?

Probably Big Ben.  He’s a big guy, but has shown himself to be mobile when needed, very durable and dependable.  I’m kind of built like him—my teammates call me Big Swart—and I’ve watched a lot of tape of him and tried to model my game after him, everything from his footwork to his arm mechanics. 

What are you up to now?

Well, I graduated this past December (with a BA in Petroleum Engineering, minor in Geology), and since then I’m still in Missouri, working out with the team and helping to prepare myself and other teammates to get a shot at the next level.

What’s been the interest level so far?

I was invited to an NFL pro day in Kansas City back in March.  That experience was incredible.  This weekend, I’ll be at a pro day for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the CFL.  There’s also some potential in the Arena League and in Europe. 

Basically, you want to keep that dream alive?

Absolutely.  I would love to play in the NFL, but really I just want any opportunity to play and show that I can contribute at a professional level. 

Best of luck to you Tyler.  If you ever want to make zero dollars, you can come work for the Big Red Sports Machine.

[Laughs]  Thanks, guys.  But I think I’ll stick with football and Petroleum Engineering. 

Let’s go to the Tape:

We’ve watched some tape on Tyler, and are impressed.  There are shades of Big Ben in his game.  He’s got good pocket awareness, anticipates the rush, moves well, throws well on the run, and when he sets his feet and has time, can rocket the ball down the field.  Tyler’s favorite throw is the 15-yard out, and it shows on film.  Check out the highlights at 40 seconds and 1:50…those are pro level plays. Tyler’s challenge will be getting the opportunity.  There are surprising number of DII players in the NFL…82 suited up last year, led by Malcolm Butler (West Alabama) and Adam Thielen (Minnesota State).  Of the 82, though, 0 were quarterbacks.  However, the Eagles just signed former DII (and AAF) quarterback Luis Perez last week, which, as Tyler noted, gives hope that the dream is still alive. 

Mock Draft Szn! In less than 3 weeks this mock (and all of the others) will look sillier than Greg Schiano’s latest coaching stint with the Pats. Onto the (projected) madness…..

Wait, so Kliff Kingsbury is calling the shots in Arizona now? The same Kliff Kingsbury that was fired by Texas Tech in November? The same Kliff Kingsbury whom was unable to turn college Patrick Mahomes into a household name?! You’re letting this douchebag call the shots? Good luck with that Arizona; we’ll be mocking you in the Top 5 for years to come.

Then again…