Welcome to Mock City, USA!!!  The Machine is back and ready to do what we do best: dropping draft knowledge.  You may ask yourself, “hey Machine, why is this your first mock of the year?  I read [insert lame sports website] and they’re on their 5^th version.  What gives?  You getting soft on us?”

First:  there’s nothing soft when we’re talking the Draft.  Second, I’m here to tell you that, any mock draft before March 7, 2016 is complete and utter bullshit.  Why?  Because that’s when free agency starts, and free agency shapes the draft.  Teams fil their needs first through free agency, then the draft.  You think the Texans are picking a quarterback after signing Brock Osweiler?  Think the Jets are looking at running back in the First Round after signing Matt Forte?  Exactly.

Those bitches at those other sites will lure you in with their fancy mocks and “expert” info…but the reliability of their information is on par with a Trump rally.

Here at the Big Red Sports Machine…we won’t insult your intelligence by posting bullshit mocks months ahead of time.  Sure, we read them all, but that’s not the point.  We respect the Draft too much.  And with that, let’s jump right in to our first round.

The anti-Johnny Football.

Top 5 talent…but no one’s stock is falling faster than Nkemdiche. Will he stay in the first round?

4.32 40 = First round.

Final thoughts: Buckle. Up.  The First Round of the 2015 NFL Draft is going to be a wild ride!  I can’t remember a draft with this many “wild card” prospects.  Earlier this week I mocked Shane Ray and La’el Collins at 11 and 12, respectively.  Now, given the cloud of uncertainty around each player, I have them dropping completely out of the first round.  In today’s NFL teams are putting more and more stock into the “off-the-field” behavior.  Although, talent trumps all things, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if a team in the second half of the round (Dallas, Baltimore) takes a flier.

The Raiders get the top player in the draft for the second year in a row.

Like Ginger’s Final Mock, I too have 7 WRs going in the first, and wouldn’t be surprised if another one or two sneak in.  I’ve also got 7 defensive backs in the first round, and that doesn’t include Landon Collins.

A few player/team fits that I really like (outside of the top-5) include: Arik Armstead/Saints, Byron Jones/Chiefs and Eric Flowers/Panthers.

Pour a cold one (or two….or ten) and enjoy the Draft!

Can’t make it to The Machine’s Draft Day Party?  Well, that sucks for you.  But have no fear…we got your back with our play at home game.  How can you make the Draft better, you ask in amazement?  By playing The Big Red Sports Machine’s Draft Drinking Game.  It’s fun, it’s easy, guaranteed to impress the ladies, and you can play along at home or at your favorite watering hole.  Here are the rules:

1.  Draft catchphrases.  There are certain phrases you only hear during the Draft.  Why?  We don’t know, but we love them.  For this reason alone, we give ESPN the slight lean over the NFL Network for your draft day coverage.  That, and, Kiper.  Duh, winning!

The following phrases are worth a shot of beer:

• Raw talent
• Off-the-field or character issues
• Live arm
• High motor
• Straight line speed
• Great Value
• Upside
• Best player available
• Intangibles or Measurables
• Trade Down
• War Room
• New Regime
• Read-Option
• Edge Rusher
• Gets to the Second Level
• Quick feet
• Plays in Space
• Chip Kelly Guy (*new for 2015)

2.  Videos/references.  Each of these are beer-finishing worthy:

• Reference to Mel’s hair
• Player on-stage photo-op with family/entourage of 15+
• Reference to Cleveland Browns front office ineptitude (cough, Trent Richardson, cough, Brandon Weedon, cough, Johnny Manziel)
• First shot of Drew Rosenhaus in his newest client’s living room
• First player to cry when their name is called
• Reference to when Tom Brady was drafted (we’ll also accept Brady’s Combine picture)
• Reference to Aaron Rodgers draft day slide
• Video of Brady Quinn in the green room
• Video of Bill Tobin’s infamous “who the hell is Mel Kiper?” interview during the ’94 Draft

3.  On the Clock Chug.  When your team is on the clock, you have to finish a full beer before the pick is called.  Note:  if your team trades down, they’re on the clock twice, meaning that’s two full beers.  Cowboy up, it’s the Draft!

Basically, if it doesn’t look like this than you’re probably doing it wrong…..

Or this:

Ginger King has Mariota moving up four spots to No. 2 overall, exactly where I had him in my first mock draft.  While I still think a team (probably Cleveland) makes a move up to grab the Oregon signal-caller, the price to leap to the second spot in the draft is too risky **cough**RG3**cough.  By waiting to make a move until No.5, you leap-frog the NYJ (who probably jump all over MM), don’t have to give up as much draft capital and still get your guy.  The Redskins, for the first time since Daniel Snyder has owned the team, actually have a competent football guy (Scot McCloughan) calling the shots, so I could totally see them jumping at the chance to move down and stockpile extra draft picks.

6’5″, 305 lbs., 4.97s/40

The Titans get the best player in this draft.  Leonard Williams will anchor an intriguing Titans defense, whom added Brian Orakpo, Derrick Morgan, D’Norris Searcy and DC Dick LeBeau this off-season.

I’m sticking with Scherff to the Giants.  He is the best offensive linemen in the draft and just feels like a Tom Coughlin type of player.

This section of the draft includes some of my favorite prospects, including Parker, Armstead and Jones.  Armstead isn’t a guy that will generate a ton of sacks, but he is going to cause havoc in the run and pass and absolutely give offensive linemen all they can handle.

6’7″, 292 lbs., 5.10s/40

The run on DB’s starts with the Dolphins apparently….

I originally had Dorial Green-Beckham to the Chiefs at 18.  I could still see that given his unique size/speed blend, but there are too many off the field concerns to risk it this early.  I have him falling out of the first round, which means he’ll be a Day 2 steal.

I don’t like Danny Shelton as many as most, but he is a mountain of a man that will considerably improve the Bengals run-defense (still a key to winning the AFC North).

6’2″, 339 lbs., 5.64s/40

TJ Clemmings drops down the board due to his recent negative medical checks.  The Ravens always seem to get value, and the selection of Melvin Gordon continues that trend.  Justin Forsett and Gordon would make a dynamic rushing attack for the Ravens.

Gordon makes it two RBs in the 1st.

It’s almost time!

We’re convinced Marcus is going #2. Question is: to whom?

Ok, some big changes from our Mock 1.0.  Chief among them:  Marcus jumps up to number 2.  Yeah, yeah, he doesn’t fit Ken Whisenhunt’s system.  But the Draft is all about maximizing value.  And while you can’t really trust trade rumors prior to the Draft, we do believe that the Titans will trade out of this spot.  There are several rumored teams (Philly, Cleveland, San Diego) that want to move up.  Tennessee could stockpile picks and still have a mid-first round pick.  Ginger King’s prediction:  San Diego trades up and sends Philip Rivers to Tennessee.  It makes sense for many reasons.

An undersized DE or oversized LB?

The Giants switch lines this round, giving Spagnoulo some much needed muscle on the defensive line.  The Saints would love it if Shane Ray falls to them.  It’s looking more and more likely that the Texans will draft Todd Gurley.  Gurley needs to go to a team where he will not be expected to contribute a full load right away, given his knee injury.  Whatever teams takes him will likely have an aging running back on their roster and looking to start the transition.  This aptly describes the Texans, who could still rely on Arian Foster in the short term and let Gurley ease into the offense.

Puff, puff, give!!!

OL and WR will dominate the first round, and that will be more evident as we get into the second half of the first round.  San Diego, if it decides to hold on to this pick (and Philip Rivers) would do well to try and bolster the offensive line.   Character problems = No problems for the Cincinnati Bengals, as they take a chance on the supremely talented (yet supremely troubled) Dorial Green-Beckham.   Finally, Randy Gregory’s rapid descent should stop with the Cardinals.

After two years in a row with no RB taken in the first round, Melvin Gordon becomes the second back off the board.  An argument can be made that any of these teams at the end of the first round (except maybe Green Bay) could use him, and don’t be surprised if a team like the Colts trades with Baltimore (to get ahead of the Cowboys where he’s sure to get picked).  For this round, he doesn’t make it past the Panthers.  Not one to shy away from character issues, the Cowboys go with a huge boom or bust pick in Marcus Peters.  Peters is the best corner in the draft, but he’s a walking red flag, having been kicked off the Huskies team in November.  As if that’s concern for Jerrah.   Byron Jones and his ridiculous broad jump go to the Colts.  The U makes it back to the first round, with Philip Dorsett the newest weapon for Drew Brees.  And finally, the rich get richer as the Patriots end the first round with the multi-talented Devin Smith.

12’3″ broad jump = first round.

Yes.  Finally.  You may say offseason, but The Machine says Draft Season.  You may also be wondering:  Why hasn’t The Machine put up a mock draft yet?  Are we lazy (no way [grabs another beer]).  Did we lose our love for the Draft (not a chance).  Then what is it?  Well, we respect the Draft so much that putting up a mock draft before free agency starts is moronic.  Like, really dumb.  Like, is the dress blue or white dumb (who gives a shit)?

Sorry, mock drafts before free agency are pointless.  And we openly judge any mock draft before the combine.  Teams fill their needs through free agency first, then the draft.  Query:  is anyone going to be mocking a WR to the Jets anymore?  Exactly.

But what, then, can we do with our time?  Great question.  Maybe we can watch some spring training [laughs hysterically].  Well, while you wait for The Machine to put up its first mock and details for The Machine’s Draft Party, sit back and , it’s not too early to analyze a prior draft.

Given all the preparation, analysis, and studying that teams do, you’d think that drafting (at least in the first round) would be a slam dunk.  But, as The Machine will show you, that’s not exactly the case.

Drafts, like that fine box of white zin you have in your fridge, take time to mature.  A good rule of thumb is it takes three years to give a true analysis of a draft.  Instant analysis of a draft is dumb.  Like, really dumb.  Case in point:  3 years out, it’s unquestionable that the Seahawks had the best draft, drafting Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagoner, and Russell Wilson with their first 3 picks.  However, the instant analysis of the 2012 Draft was harsh.  Kiper gave them a C-, Pete Prisco graded the Wilson pick a D (I mean, they had Matt Flynn, what were they thinking?), and SB Nation gave them an F.

With that said, let’s take a look at the 2012 and see how the experts did.

The Colts got it right, but very few others did.

First, wow.  Ok, Luck’s legit and Kuechly’s a stud, but what about the rest?  Blackmon’s not even in the NFL anymore (so much for those background checks) and Trent Richardson just joined him on the unemployed line.  RGIII?  The Cowboys traded up to grab Claiborne, and he’s been a huge disappointment.

What about the rest of the first round?  Glad you asked.

The rest of the first round isn’t that pretty.  Brandon Weeden just turned 60, and he’s a career backup qb, David Wilson’s already retired, and several other players haven’t made much of an impact.  Number of pro bowlers from the first round?  6.  That’s it.

Ever wonder why the Browns always suck?  It starts with inept management.

Upon review, the 2012 Draft sucked.  For all the scouting and sleepless nights in the war room, a lot of teams (cough, Cleveland Browns, cough) got it wrong.  The Machine grades the first round a D.  The best player (Russell Wilson) wasn’t drafted until the third round.  And despite 4 receivers drafted in the first round, the best one (Alshon Jeffrey) was drafted in the second round.

Ok, back to this draft.  Now that free agency has started, our mock drafts will be coming fast and often, all leading up to the greatest non-sporting night of the year.  Check back soon to find out your team will draft.

As the Draft approaches, The Machine smiles with delight.  Each year, the slate is wiped clean, each team is reborn, and the Draft begins the process of building your team into the next NFL powerhouse.  Hell, it’s even a good time to be a Jets fan.  It’s also a great time to test your knowledge of your team, and see how your mock matches up to the “experts”.

One common theme each year is that teams at the top of the Draft need to grab that franchise quarterback.  “New regime, new quarterback” is often thrown around.  But is that really true nowadays?  Is spending a first round pick on a quarterback a must?  Recent history would tell us otherwise.  Let’s look at The Machine’s uber-fancy chart of the last two years of playoffs teams, and where these quarterbacks were drafted.

Over the last two years, having a first round QB gives you a 50% chance of making the playoffs.  That’s it.  Not really overwhelming odds, about the same odds The Machine has to date Kate Upton.  Obviously, much more goes into making the playoffs than having a first round quarterback…but that’s exactly our point.

Yeah, a 50% chance seems right.

Football is the ultimate team sport, and teams should be focused on building a balanced team, and valuing team positions (OL, DL, Secondary) over individual skill positions (QB, RB, WR).  Look no further than the reigning Super Bowl Champions, the Seattle Seahawks.  Seattle’s rise to Super Bowl Champion did not come on the arm of a first round QB or the hands of a legit #1 WR.  Instead, Seattle had a dominant offensive line that made Marshawn Lynch (a Buffalo Bills reject) a Top 5 RB, and gave Russell Wilson the time to throw to a collection of no name WRs.  And we all know about their punishing defense.

Also, of the QBs that were taken in the first round, the majority of them were taken #1 overall (Peyton, Cam, Andrew Luck).  These players were known to be can’t miss, franchise QBs.

So what does that tell us?  Unless there’s a can’t miss talent at QB, you’re better off addressing other needs, and waiting to draft a QB later.

Is anyone falling faster than Teddy?

Face of the franchise? Another good decision by Johnny Football.

Now let’s apply that concept to this years’ Draft.  There are a lot of QB needy teams, including Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota, all of whom have Top 10 picks in the Draft.  Here’s the list of the Top QBs:  Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater.  None of these guys have the same pedigree or ranking as Peyton, Cam, or Andrew Luck, or even RGIII or Matt Ryan.  Simply put:  while some (or all) may turn into great QBs, you certainly can’t call any of them a can’t miss prospect.

What that has resulted in is a couple of things.  One, teams at the top of the first round are thinking twice about drafting a QB in the first.  Teddy Bridgewater, the consensus #1 pick three months ago, is now falling out of the first round…Johnny Football is also dropping.  Two, teams are looking at the next group of Quarterbacks in the class.

Jimmy’s leading the Day 2 charge of QBs.

Indeed, the focus has been shifted to the second and third rounds, and the buzz is now over guys like Derek Carr, Jimmy Garropolo, Tom Savage, Zack Mettenberger, and AJ McCarron.  People are looking for the next Russell Wilson, or Colin Kaepernick.  Logan Thomas and Tajh Boyd are also getting some attention.

Could this be the best QB in the Draft?

Point is:  you don’t need a first round QB to have success in the NFL.  Don’t buy into the myth that you “need” to draft one in the first round.  The best QB in the Draft could be sitting there on Day 2.