Here. We. Go!  It’s Mock Draft season!  The first, second and third waves of free agency have come and gone.  We’re down to depth-chart fillers like Matt Cassel and Troy Niklas.  NFL front offices are working OT to finalize their draft boards, find potential trade partners and send out as many false signals as possible.  Let’s dive into the top half of the first round, shall we:

It’s no secret, this years crop of QB prospects have NFL talent evaluators creaming their pants.  It’s the reason the Cleveland Browns have literally been tanking for the last two years (1-31, hullo!).  It’s the reason they passed on passed on Wentz, Trubisky and Watson. They are taking a QB first overall.  They were ALWAYS going to take a QB first overall.  Darnold has the most upside; time will tell if the weight of Cleveland suck will crush this kids soul or not.

Without mentioning his name, this is the three-year average from the Giants starting QB:

372/596 (62%), 3977 yards, 27 TDs, 14 Ints, 0.333 benchings

Yikes.  If I ever die like that old dude in the DaVinci Code, and I need to pass on the message that my evil killer was in some way mediocre (a word I clearly can’t spell without spell-checker), I’m going to scrawl that stat line on my dying corpse.  I’ll most likely be in a Tebowing pose as well, just putting that out there.

Let’s remember, those state are with throwing to the best WR in football (most of the time).  Eli’s also 37.  It’s time to put him out to pasture and draft the QB of the future.  The G-Men have no intention of picking in the top 5 again any time soon, and somehow I doubt the sales pitch to convince Shurmur to coach the team was: “we’re going to NOT let you pick the QB you want to groom for the future AND trade way the best offensive weapon in the game”.  The Giants will either draft Rosen/Mayfield or trade down.  And they won’t move Beckham.  The trade talk is a weak attempt to try to gain some leverage in negotiations.  Trading Jason Pierre Lobster Claw was more about trading that contract than it was moving that 7-and-a-half fingered freak show.  OBJ ’bout to get paid!

Money!

Clearly the Jets have no problem with sloppy seconds (or thirds)!  Some things never change.  It’s not really a stretch to envision the Jets picking the one bust QB from this class, while 4 other guys go on to have HOF careers.  Can’t blame the Jets for trying, they were probably going to fuck up all those second round picks they gave to the Colts anyways.  I love Mayfield the QB prospect, but I’ll flip on that crotch-grabbing asshole as soon as he holds up that green jersey.

So Peter King said a “friend” of John Dorsey’s (Cleveland’s GM) said the Browns won’t trade out of No. 4.  Luckily (for my wife), I wasn’t reading SI during breakfast, because I would have been shooting milk and Cheerios out of my nose from laughing so hard.  Seriously Pete.  You’re citing a “friend”.  Ummm, was this friend named Keter Ping?

I have the Browns taking Chubb at 4 (mostly because I don’t bother with mocking trades).  It’s cool to think about Chubb and Myles Garrett on the same D-line.  Until you realize it’s Cleveland, and neither of those guys can cover Antonio Brown, so they’ll still get creamed by the Steelers.

Denver is the true wildcard.  Correction: John Elways ego is the true wildcard.  Horse-teeth still thinks he has an elite defense and that Case Keenum is good.  John Elway backed QBs fall into two distinct groups: Those named Peyton Manning, and those that suck at playing quarterback (see: Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, Trevor Semen (sic)).  Which category do you think Case Keenum will fall into?!?  I’ve got the Broncos taking the “just one player away from contending” guy in Barkley.  On the other hand,  Elway gets mega stiffys for QB’s over 6′-6″, so can he resists the urge to lasso in Josh Allen?

In five years from now we are going to look back and realize that the Colts were the true laughing-stock of the league, not the Browns.  Since 1998….(don’t grab your calculator, it’s 20 years ago)…the Colts have had EITHER Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck under contract.  They’ve got 1 Superbowl victory to show for it (if I had an editor he’d probably add a note here saying that Superbowl victory was against Rex Freaking Grossman.  Not sayin, just sayin.  Good point fake editor!).  The Colts weren’t able to protect Manning and he literally broke his neck [insert Peyton Manning neck and/or forehead joke here]….and they are trying their damnedest to double down and get Andrew Luck killed on the field of play.  Josh McDaniels got one peek behind the curtain and sabotaged his own career instead of joining this clownshow.  I’ve got the Colts drafting the best guard prospect I’ve ever evaluated…..which means he’ll probably be out of the league in five years.

Please be as good as Wentz.

I don’t think the Bucs take a QB at 7, but it seems like the ideal spot (in this mock) for the Bills, Dolphins or Cardinals to move up and grab Allen (the last “blue chip” QB prospect).

Denzel Ward is my highest rated corner, but whomever lands Jackson and Fitzpatrick won’t be disappointed.

Roquan Smith is my favorite player to watch in this draft.  He’s all over the place.

Stay tuned for picks 17 -32……(but not really, because I’ll probably move on to Mock 2.0 and start all over from the top).

Alright, alright, alright.  Let’s get right to our Mock 2.0.  Some big changes in store.  We’ve already seen some big trades, as the Jets and the Bills are making some big moves, each in search of a franchise quarterback.  The Jets have assured themselves of one of the Big 3, but Buffalo still has some work to do if it’s gunning for a quarterback.  The Giants at #2 and Cleveland at #4 are great spots…but what will it take to get there (answer: a lot).  Also, they’re going to have some competition.  There are teams lurking outside the Top 10 besides the Bills (Miami, Arizona) looking to make a jump into the Top 5.  This will make for some exciting fireworks come draft night.

For now, let’s focus on the draft order as is (predicting trades is like a mock within a mock…and that’s just ridiculous).  We’ll reveal a little more of the curtain and unveil the top half of Round 1.

Instant Analysis:  Darnold took some flak for not throwing at the Combine, but silenced all critics by impressing everyone at his pro day.  As if his performance alone wasn’t enough, he threw in the rain, letting everyone know he’s ready for some depressing mid-Western weather.

Like bad weather, Sam? You’re going to love Cleveland.

Things get wonky quick with the Giants at 2.  I think the Giants would love nothing more than to trade down a few spots.  Problem is they don’t want to drop too far.  Ideally, best case scenario is to drop to #5 or #6, get some picks in the process, and still be guaranteed a top player (Barkley, Chubb, Nelson).  However, neither Denver or the Colts are looking to move up (quite the opposite, actually).  For now, they stay put and take Chubb, who makes a ton of sense, especially with JPP and his lobster claw heading to Tampa.

Thanks for the memories!

By trading out of the third pick, the Colts are gambling that Chubb will still be there.  If not, they will try to trade down, as someone like Vita Vea would still be available in the early teens.

Rounding out the top half, the Dolphins are the big winners here…with Josh Allen falling in their lap.  If the Giants don’t draft a quarterback (they may take Allen) then teams will be clamoring to move up to get him.  It’s unthinkable that he could fall that far, but stranger things have happened.  Remember Aaron Rodgers draft day slide?  He fell all the way to 24.  It could happen (but probably not).

Speaking of the Packers, Green Bay fills the void left by Jordy Nelson with Christian Kirk, proving again that free agency shapes the draft.

Carson Wentz 2.0

Is your bracket busted yet?  A 16 beating a 1?  I thought that would NEVER happen.  Anyway, now that that’s out of the way, it’s time to focus on what’s really important.  The NFL Draft.  First, let’s start with some fan mail (we get so much, it’s hard to keep up, but don’t worry, we’ll respond to all of you).

[BRSM follower]:  Hey, aren’t you guys a little late to the draft party?  I’ve seen tons of mock drafts already.  How come you guys haven’t put one out yet?  Kiper already has, like, 20 out.  What’s wrong with you guys?

[Response]:  While we appreciate the mock draft enthusiasm, mock drafts before free agency are absolute horseshit.  My kids don’t know their street address but they do know this:  Free agency shapes the draft.  Period.  How many mock drafts did you see with Denver taking a quarterback?  A lot.  You think that’s happening now that they just signed Case Keenum?  The Browns just signed Carlos Hyde and are paying him starting RB money.  You think they’re going to draft Saquon #1 overall?  No, but damn if he slips to #4 they should.

And LOL at that Kiper shit.  Our streak of more first round picks right than Kiper (and McShay) is guaranteed to continue.  Just like a 1 beating a 16…

Anyway, here’s my Top 10…just the tip for now…it costs extra to see my full mock (believe me, my full mock is HUGE.  The best.).  Anyway, enjoy St. Patrick’s Day (amateur hour) and make sure to celebrate it the right way (blind drunk).  As soon as Roid Rage gets out of his Leprechaun costume, he’ll post his Top 10.

Replace palm trees with vacant, industrial buildings. Welcome to Cleveland, Sam!

Instant Analysis:  Yes, Cleveland needs (another) quarterback.  Since they also have the #4 pick, they could go another direction with their first pick (Saquon Barkley, Bradley Chubb) and then take whichever quarterback is there at 4.  Sounds good in theory.  However, you do not want to leave the quarterback position up to chance, especially not when you have the chance to pick whomever you want without worrying about what others are doing.  As I’m writing this, the Jets just traded up to #3.  That pick is guaranteed to be a quarterback.  No way Cleveland let’s anyone pick a qb before them.  Bet the house this pick is qb.  My money’s on Darnold.  He’s the most polished, pro-ready quarterback.

Also, this Top 10 assumes no trades.  No way that’s going to happen.  There’s an arms race brewing…teams, cough…Buffalo…cough, are trying to position themselves to get one of the Top 3 quarterbacks.  Some other teams are lurking (Miami, Arizona) that may try to make a move.  As many as 4 quarterbacks could go in the first 10 picks (yes, we’ll laugh at whatever sucker trades up for Johnny Football 2.0…I mean, Baker Mayfield).  That’s going to make for some exciting trades come draft night.  But we’re getting ahead of ourselves.

Best. Combine. Ever.

Rounding out the rest of the Top 10, the Giants stay put and take Saquon Barkley, whom many believe is the best player in the draft.  The Giants are pretty vanilla when it comes to trades, especially in the first round.  I don’t see them moving from 2, unless someone really wows them.  I’m talking multiple first round picks (this year and next year).  I’m looking at you, Buffalo!

Power + speed = Instant star

If the Colts can still land Bradley Chubb at 6 (and collect a bunch of picks from the Jets) that will be a draft day steal.  It’s a pretty big gamble…however offense is going to rule the first few picks in this draft, so it may just pan out.

Can’t make it to The Machine’s Draft Day Party?  Well, that sucks for you.  But have no fear…we got your back.  “How can I make the Draft better?”, you ask yourself in amazement.  By playing The Big Red Sports Machine’s Draft Day Drinking Game.  It’s fun, it’s easy, guaranteed to impress the ladies, and you can play at home or at your favorite watering hole.  Here are the rules:

1.  Draft catchphrases.  There are certain phrases you only hear during the Draft.  Why?  We don’t know, but we love them.  For this reason alone, we give ESPN the slight lean over the NFL Network for your draft day coverage.  That, and, Kiper.  Duh, winning!

The following phrases are worth a shot of beer:

• Raw talent
• Off-the-field or character issues
• Live arm
• High motor
• Straight line speed
• Great Value
• Upside
• Best player available
• Intangibles or Measurables
• Trade Down
• War Room
• New Regime
• Read-Option
• Edge Rusher
• Gets to the Second Level
• Quick feet
• Plays in Space
• Advanced Stats

New for 2017:

• Dual threat
• System quarterback
• Pocket presence
• Plays in the box (hey oh!)

2.  Videos/references.  Each of these are beer-finishing worthy:

• Reference to Mel’s hair
• Player on-stage photo-op with family/entourage of 15+
• Reference to Cleveland Browns front office ineptitude
• First shot of Drew Rosenhaus in his newest client’s living room
• First player to cry when their name is called
• Reference to when Tom Brady was drafted (we’ll also accept Brady’s Combine picture)
• Reference to Aaron Rodgers draft day slide
• Video of Brady Quinn in the green room
• Video of Bill Tobin’s infamous “who the hell is Mel Kiper?” interview during the ’94 Draft
• And this:

3.  On the Clock Chug.  When your team is on the clock, you have to finish a full beer before the pick is called.  Note:  if your team trades down, they’re on the clock twice, meaning that’s two full beers.  Cowboy up, it’s the Draft!

Basically, if it doesn’t look like this than you’re probably doing it wrong…..

Or this:

Lock-n-load!

*As of 5 PM reports have it that the Browns will select Myles Garrett No. 1 overall. While I don’t think the Titans will select Trubisky, it is the ideal spot for a team that wants to trade up for him (I don’t think that team will be the Browns).

Instant Analysis:  The hardest thing in sports isn’t hitting a fastball, it’s predicting the NFL Draft!  See that, it’s April and I’m already slipping in the baseball references…..Speaking of baseball, let’s not forget, the guys calling the shots for the Browns are moneyball guys, whom report to a truck-stop guy that specializes in corruption, fraud, any bribery.   So, do I have faith they will get this pick/draft right?!

Okay, so the baseball equivalent of a quarterback is like your entire pitching rotation…and maybe even your closer and No. 3 and 4 hitters!  You have to have one to win….you have to have one to even compete.  The better your quarterback, the better your chance of winning.  Now, we don’t know how Mitch Trubisky’s game will translate to the NFL…nobody does… but the Browns don’t need him to be an All-Pro to justify this pick.  If he can be a top-15 quarterback, that’s a HELL of a lot better than anything on their current roster (a statement that has been true for the last 15 years or so).  If you can get “Alex Smith type” production from him, with upside for more, than you have to take him first overall.  At that level, his WAR will be significantly higher than anything Myles Garett can provide you.

I also don’t think they want to use all the ammo they’ve painstakingly collected, just to blow it by trading back up into the Top 5.  They can still land an impactful type player at No. 12 and build their roster through the rest of the draft.

I think San Francisco goes one of three ways….(note: don’t google “San Francisco three-way”)…Trubisky, Thomas or Adams.  And I’m not buying into the “John Lynch was a safety” narrative; but I believe Adams has the goods on and off the field.  He is a dynamic safety and has team-captain written all over him.

The Bears would love to add to their secondary, but Garrett falls into their lap in this scenario.  This draft is LOADED with Corners and Safety’s, so they can snag one in Round 2.

The Bills would be thrilled to add a versatile linebacker to lead Sean McDermott’s defense, they’ve got their pick between Reddick and Foster.  A corner is in play, but similar to the Bears, they can land one later in the draft.

Marlon Humphrey hasn’t been talked about much in the Mock Draft community.  He is a very good all around corner that will go higher than most people are expecting.

It’ll be fun to see how disastrous the Redskins draft is.  Without a GM, who is calling the shots?  Bruce Allen? Dan Synder?  Goooooood luck with that.

Similar to Ginger King, I’ve given Big Blue an offensive linemen.  In this case, they land the best mauler in the draft.

DeShaun Watson could go second overall or slip to the second round.  I don’t love his game, but I’ve mocked him to Houston, who like Cleveland, is desperate for a QB.

In the bizarre world that we live in, Joe Mixon, who knocked some girls lights out, gets drafted in the first round, while Gareon Conley, who faces borderline ludicrous allegations (multiple witnesses corroborate his side of the story) slips out of the first.  He could land in the bottom of Round 2 or even Round 3.  It’ll probably cost him $5+ million.  I mean, if he’s guilty forget everything I just said and lock him up (right next to Hillary)!

Check back in for the Annual Big Red Sports Machine NFL Draft Drinking Game and post-draft analysis!

Kevin Costner, you’re on the clock!

Here.  We.  Go.

The final mock.  After weeks (ok months) of “research” (defined to include watching an endless supply of college game tape with fistfuls of chicken wings and buckets of Coors Light) it’s time to put our “knowledge” to work.  So many questions heading into the Draft, so many rumors flying around; it’s hard to decipher what’s legit and what’s bullshit.  But that’s why we’re here.

The question on everyone’s mind:  Will Ginger King and Roid Rage continue their streak of more correct First Round picks than Kiper and McShay?  Ginger please, we got this locked down.  Anyway, on to the final mock.

Leonard has “Tom Coughlin guy” written all over him.

[looks in mirror]
Cleveland is where I want to be.
Cleveland is where I want to be.
Cleveland is where I want to be.

Big Blue Mauler.

Instant Analysis:  Obviously, this is not how the First Round will shake out, as trades will throw everything off…and we think there will be a lot of trades.  Potentially starting at #2 with the Niners.  I also think another team looking to trade down is Tennessee at 5.  I think there’s no way the Browns come out of the First Round without Myles Garrett and Mitchell Trubisky.  I think the Browns will take Myles at #1, and then find a way to climb back into the Top 10.  Perfect trade would be with the Titans.  Keep your eye on that.

Another trading spot will be the end of the First Round.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team at the top of Round 2 (say, Chicago or Cleveland if they somehow managed to screw up and not get Trubisky) trade into the bottom of the First Round to grab a quarterback.  But why would they do that?  Simple.  All draft picks are required to sign a 4 year contract…but only First Round picks have a team option for a fifth year.  If you feel that there’s a player out there (usually a qb) that you’re in love with, it’s better to draft them in the bottom of the first than the top of the second.  If you’re right (and let’s be honest, all GMs think they’re right), you get them for an extra year at a good price.  If you’re wrong, well then you won’t be around to not exercise the option.  Win-win.

Elsewhere, I’ve had Njoku to the Giants forever, and for my own selfish reasons I hope he ends up there.  But the Giants have a terrible time keeping their picks a secret.  There’s either a front office leak, or someone like to hit the “reply all” button on emails, but there have been multiple drafts where teams have traded up ahead of the Giants to draft the player they really want.  In 2012, the Bucs traded up to get Doug Martin.  Last year, the Titans and the Bears traded up to get ahead of the Giants to draft Jack Conklin and Leonard Floyd, respectively, the Giant’s top 2 coveted players.  This year, I think the G-Men are in love with Njoku and (dark horse) Zach Cunningham.  I know they haven’t drafted a first round linebacker in 30+ years but that doesn’t mean they haven’t tried (see Floyd, Leonard).  I think they lose out on both of them this year and “settle” for Bolles, which isn’t much of a settle, seeing as how he would immediately compete for the left tackle position.

Big question is how much will “character concerns” affect draft status?  There are a handful of first round talent players – Jabrill Peppers, Reuben Foster, Gareon Conley, Joe Mixon, etc.  I still think that Mixon doesn’t get drafted tonight, because…um, that video.  But the others?  I don’t think it affects them that much.  That reminds me:  Hey rookies, change your social media passwords today.  You don’t want this to appear around 7:45 pm tonight:

Still a first round pick.

Mock Draft Monday!

We are coming down the homestretch and the rumors are a swirling!  The latest, Mitchell Trubisky to the 49ers (nailed it)!

I could be falling for the Reuben Foster smokescreen (pun intended); I don’t worry too much about the failed drug test, or the meltdown he had at the combine, but his medicals are a bit concerning given his style of play.  He is an absolute missile on the field, so I believe he will still go early on Day 1 but Top-10 is probably too risky.

Fournette to the Jags seems like a foregone conclusion.

QBs are the wild card this year (just like every year!)

Instant Analysis:  Ginger King lays out a compelling argument for why the G-men will draft Tight End David Njoku.  While that makes perfect sense, I still have Big Blue adding an Edge defender that can terrorize NFC East QBs for years to come.  The Giants will add a ho-hum TE later in the draft (whom will be a fantasy football asset playing with such an elite QB).

I’m having trouble finding a home for Dalvin Cook.  His college production was so good, yet his combine numbers were so pedestrian.  TB at 19 makes some sense, but I believe we’ll go late in Round 1, if not slip into the second Round.

The Raiders double down in true Al Davis fashion, first by moving the team and then by selecting the faster player in the Draft.  Injury history be damned!

One week to go!  Big risers (Christian McCaffrey) and fallers (Reuben Foster) this week as the Draft starts to pan out a little.  This is about the time where teams use some serious misdirection and smokescreens.  If you’re hearing for the first time this week that Team X is in love with Y player, it’s probably not true.  Teams are always playing this game of inflating players, or critiquing players, in the hopes that the real player they want will fall to them.

Also, Roid Rage finally stopped watching April baseball (it doesn’t matter bruh, check back in 5 months) and posted his first mock.  He brought in some heavy hitters (pun intended) and bold moves.  Go check it out.  But first, check out what Ginger King has in store for you.

Hey, it could be worse. You could be in Cleveland.

A real dual threat athlete.

Instant Anlaysis:  The Browns don’t get so lucky this time…as Western New York’s America’s team, the Buffalo Bills, make a splash and get their (next) quarterback of the future (wait, isn’t Jim Kelly’s nephew in this Draft?)  Anyway, Mitchell to the Bills makes sense.  Tyrod’s essentially on a one year deal, and Mitchell really could use a year on the sidelines to learn the NFL way (he’s not a ready-made pro-product like Andrew Luck or Cam Newton).  Plus, Tyrod and Mitchell have similar playing-styles.  Mitchell is not a pure pocket passer…he ran for 5 tds last season and played mostly out of the shotgun.  Learning from Tyrod for a year is the smart and practical thing to do. [checks Bills coaching roster to make sure the Ryan brothers are not there].  This could totally happen.

Turning to the real New York team, I can’t really envision a scenario where they don’t pick Njoku if he’s available.  Let’s get real for a second.  This pick is going to be offense.  The Giants are returning 10 of 11 starters on defense, and their problems last year were on the offensive side, with a rotating cast of linemen and I almost had them take Garrett Bolles, but there’s no real clear-cut can’t miss offensive lineman this years.  There’s a lot of flyers, and you don’t want to spend a first-round pick on a flyer.  That’s why I think the Giants will wait until later in the draft to select a lineman, maybe someone like Tayler Moton.  The beauty of Njoku (or Howard but I don’t really see him falling that far or the Giants trading up) is that he provides both offensive line support plus a receiving threat.  This 2 for 1 helps to solve the Giant’s biggest need.

Biggest winner is Christian McCaffrey, who vaults into the Top 10.  I’ve heard a lot of rumors about this is the pick for Carolina, and I’m starting to buy it.  Would improve both the running and passing game.  Cam needs weapons, both receiving and running.  The only concern is durability and is he a three-down player.  But the talent may be too much to pass up.

Elsewhere, Rueben Foster and his diluted urine sample continue to fall.  This latest news, coupled with being asked to leave the Combine for arguing with a hospital worker (true story), might move him out of the first round altogether.