Category Archives: NFL

2013 Fantasy Football Pecking Order: TEs

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For those of you that had Dustin Keller on your cheatsheets (here’s looking at you Ginger King), consider sending DJ Swearinger a thank you card…..

 

Player Composite Rank Ginger King Roid Rage
Jimmy Graham (NOS) 1 1 1
Rob Gronkowski (NEP) 2 3 2
Tony Gonzalez (ATL) 3 2 5
Vernon Davis (SFO) 4 4 4
Jason Witten (DAL) 5 5 3
Kyle Rudolph (MIN) 6 7 6
Brandon Pettigrew (DET) 7 6 11
Brandon Myers (NYG) 8 8 9
Jermaine Gresham (CIN) 9 10 10
Greg Olsen (CAR) 10 13 8
Martellus Bennett (CHI) 11 14 7
Antonio Gates (SDC) 12 12 12
Owen Daniels (HOU) 13 9 16
Jermichael Finley (GBP) 14 11 15
Heath Miller (PIT) 15 19 13
Marcedes Lewis (JAC) 16 15 18
Jared Cook (STL) 17 17 17
Jordan Cameron (CLE) 18 – 14
Fred Davis (WAS) 19 16 –
Dustin Keller (MIA) 20 18 –
Robert Housler (ARI) 21 – 19
Ed Dickson (BAL) 22 20 –
Dwayne Allen (IND) 23 – 20

 BRSM

2013 Fantasy Football Pecking Order: QBs

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Football is king; the proof is in the ratings-pudding!  For the broadcast week-ending August 4, 2013 (BW45), not only was the Dallas Cowboys v. Miami Dolphins HOF Game the top rated sports broadcast, it was the highest rated program, period.  And the pre-game show/ceremony was the second-rated show for the week!  Hey Ryan Braun, LA Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates, A-Roid and all other MLB storylines: thanks for carrying us through the summer; the big boys have laced them up, we’ll see you guys in April!

You can bet your ass those ratings consist of a large number of fantasy owners checking to see what veterans have lost a step, scouting late round sleepers, and getting an overall vibe from each team as they gear up for fantasy drafts!  The Machine is running on all cylinders this time of the year.  Check out our QB rankings below and check back as we roll out the other skill positions.

Player Composite Rank Ginger King Roid Rage
Aaron Rodgers (GBP) 1 1 1
Drew Brees (NOS) 2 2 2
Tom Brady (NEP) 3 3 6
Colin Kaepernick (SFO) 4 5 5
Peyton Manning (DEN) 5 4 7
Matt Ryan (ATL) 6 7 4
Cam Newton (CAR) 7 9 3

 Cam Newton intro

 

Eli Manning (NYG) 8 8 10
Matthew Stafford (DET) 9 6 12
Tony Romo (DAL) 10 10 9
Robert Griffin III (WAS) 11 12 8
Andrew Luck (IND) 12 11 13
Russell Wilson (SEA) 13 15 11
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) 14 13 15
Jay Cutler (CHI) 15 16 14
Joe Flacco (BAL) 16 14 18
Sam Bradford (STL) 17 18 16
Matt Schaub (HOU) 18 20 19
Ryan Tannehill (MIA) 19 – 17
Andy Dalton (CIN) 20 17 –
Philip Rivers (SDC) 21 19 –
Alex Smith (KCC) 22 – 20

BRSM

Mock Draft (v5.0) – Brian’s Final

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NFL Draft

Lock and load………..

1

 Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel OL Texas A&M
Analysis:  The Chiefs have been locked into this pick for some time now as evident with the release of starting RT Eric Winston and the impending trade of LT Brandon Albert.

2

 Jacksonville Jaguars: Dion Jordan OLB Oregon
Analysis:  The Jaguar’s and Raider’s both have wily football guys calling the shots these days and they’ve put their best foot forward in creating a trade-up market for Eric Fisher.  Not going to happen at #2.  The Jags grab perhaps the most versatile defender in this draft.

3

 Oakland Raiders Eric Fisher OT C. Michigan
Analysis:  I think McKenzie gets the Lions to trade-up two spots (similar to Minnesota/Cleveland with Trent Richardson last year) to secure the rights to Fisher.

4

 Philadelphia Eagles Barkevious Mingo DE LSU
Analysis:  First of all, Chip Kelly is calling the shots here.  And Chip is so confident…cough, arrogant, cough…that his offensive system is superior to anything the NFL has ever seen that his only concern is building a shutdown defense.  They go defensive heavy in this draft; here they grab an explosive edge defender.

5

 Detroit Lions Star Lotulelei DT Utah
Analysis:  Again, this would be the Raiders selection.  They need help just about every where.  But they start with a Haloti Ngata type of player.

6

 Cleveland Browns Geno Smith QB WVU
Analysis:  Lombardi is a firm believer in positional value and no position on the football field has more value than the QB.  I have to believe Rob Chudzinski sees a little bit of Cam Newton in Smith’s game.

7

 Arizona Cardinals Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma
Analysis:  Biggest need for the Cardinals.  Although only starting 11 games at LT, Johnson is ridiculously athletic and offers emmense upside.

8

 Buffalo Bills Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse
Analysis:  I’m totally buying the Syracuse connection here.  New regimes equal new QBs.  Marrone knows Nassib better than any talent evaluator in the NFL.

9

 NY Jets Ezekiel Ansah DE BYU
Analysis:  This kid had gobs of potential.  Rex gets his passer rusher.

10

 Tennessee Titans Dee Milliner CB Alabama
Analysis:  Hard to come up with a scenario where Milliner slips out of the Top 10; this is his floor.  I think Miami (after completing a trade for Albert) moves up to this spot.

11

 San Diego Chargers Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri
Analysis:  I think a team trades up at this spot for Richardson’s services.

12

 Miami Dolphins Sharrif Floyd DT Florida
Analysis:  The DT’s in this class are impressive.  I think there are teams in love with all three of these guys (Star, Richardson, Floyd).

13

 New York Jets Kenny Vaccaro S Texas
Analysis: With Vaccaro, Jones, Austin and Eifert still on the board I do not think the Jets will have a hard time finding a trade partner. 

14

 Carolina Panthers Tavon Austin WR WVU
Analysis: I think the Panthers could be one of the teams to move up a few spots to grab Richardson/Floyd.  So this could easily be Miami’s or San Diego’s pick.  Regardless, all three teams could be in play for Austin.

15

 New Orleans Saints Jarvis Jones LB Georgia
Analysis:  This kid is a gamer, critics be damned!

16

 St. Louis Rams Arthur Brown LB Kansas State
Analysis:  Undersized perhaps, but I think this is the future of NFL LB’s.  This kid will be an impact player.

17

 Pittsburgh Steelers Tyler Eifert TE ND
Analysis:  Would not be surprised if he went top 10.  Dual TE sets (with athletic TEs) are so hard to defend (See: New England).

18

 Dallas Cowboys Chance Warmack OG Alabama
Analysis:  Jerry lands a “big name” and a need position.  More importantly they are getting a heck of a football player.  OG’s just don’t carry the positional value to justify a top 15 pick. 

19

 NY Giants Tank Carradine DE Florida State
Analysis:  I can really see Tank in a 49ers or Falcons jersey.  The Giants won’t pass on his talents.

20

 Chicago Bears Bjoren Werner DE Florida State
Analysis:  Perfect fit.

21

 Cincinnati Bengals Jonathan Cyprien S FIU
Analysis:  As talented as Vaccaro in my opinion.

22

 St. Louis Rams DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson
Analysis:  St. Louis hasn’t been shy about showing their interest in Hopkins.

23

 Minnesota Vikings Johnathan Cooper OG UNC
Analysis:  A terrific player, but again, OG’s just don’t warrant high picks.

24

 Indianapolis Colts DJ Fluker OT Alabama
Analysis: The Colts absolutely have to protect Luck.  While I don’t think they can plug Fluker in as a LT (and the just signed RT Cherilus to big time money) I think Fluker could be a dominate guard.

25

 Minnesota Vikings Xavier Rhodes CB Florida State
Analysis:  Helps improve a weak secondary.

26

 Green Bay Packers Datone Jones DE UCLA
Analysis:   Great value pick and somebody who can contribute right away on defense.

27

 Houston Texans DJ Hayden CB HOU
Analysis:  A local kid, but don’t let that fool you, he is an extremely talented CB.  Rumor has it he may give Milliner a run for his money.

28

 Denver Broncos Jamar Taylor CB Boise St.
Analysis:  A physical corner to pair with Bailey.

29

 New England Patriots Sly Williams DT NC
Analysis:  He could be a force on their D-line.  Would be surprised to see NE draft here.  Trading down is the most likely scenario.

30

 Atlanta Falcons Matt Barkley QB USC
Analysis:  A team will jump back in to grab the guy they like.  Could be Manual, but I think Barkley is too good of a prospect to pass up.  Most likely to trade up: Jags, Jets, Oakland.

31

 San Francisco 49ers Justin Hunter WR Tennessee
Analysis:  Niners could use a solid #2 WR.  Keenan Allen will be in the mix too, but testing positive for weed at the Combine shows a complete lack of judgment and responsibility (dude, toke up after the Combine).  This likely drops him to the second round.

32

 Baltimore Ravens Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee
Analysis:  Too much talent to pass up here.  Needs to be coached up quite a bit, but the potential is there (reminds me of Stephen Hill, who was the sixth WR taken last year at #43)   

2013 NFL Draft – By the Numbers

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As we inch closer to the draft (are we there yet?!) The Machine is busy tracking, among other things, two phenomena that tend to occur this time of the year: (1) the massive amount of misinformation being reported (generated first and foremost by NFL front offices) and (2) the overabundance of mock drafts.  Draftniks alike can’t seem to help themselves this time of the year, posting new and updated mocks daily.  You all have a problem.  And we love you for it!

There seems to be two schools of thought when it comes to mocking the draft.  The traditionalists prefer the straight-up mock draft.  No trading.  Each team gets their turn and that’s it.  The rationale being that mocking the draft is hard enough, mixing in the variable of trades makes the task damn near impossible.  The second group, the younger generation if you will, theorize trade scenarios based on projected player availability, team needs and team philosophy.

Realistically, the truth lies somewhere in-between.  Wheeling and dealing will always be part of the draft, and if last years dizzying pace was an indication (14 slots swapped in the first round alone) this year will feature some thrilling blockbusters (we’re looking at you Revis/Tampa Bay….or perhaps a dark horse team?!)

However, I’ve got a real issue with some of the trades being mocked.  For example, draftniks seem all too comfortable with the Bills drafting a WR/DL/CB with the No. 8 overall pick, justifying that the team can take a QB at No.  41, or even trade back into the bottom of the first round and grab their QB.  They fail to consider that the Bills only have six total picks; not exactly a cache of ammunition.  Given their (lack of) talent, they can ill afford to give up the picks necessary to jump from No. 41 into the low 20’s.  On the contrary, I’d expect the Bills to be actively shopping both the No. 8 and No. 41 pick in an effort to acquire more picks.

This lead The Machine to take a closer look at each teams draft pick status heading into the draft to identify which teams might be looking, and more importantly have the resources to move up in the draft.  Here is the breakdown, with some interesting observations to follow:

2013 NFL Draft by the Numbers     
Team              Total Picks                    Top 100 Picks
San Francisco

13

5
Baltimore

12

3
Miami

11

5
Minnesota

11

4
Atlanta

11

3
Cincinnati

10

4
Seattle

10

2
Houston

9

4
Tennessee

9

4
Philadelphia

9

3
Kansas City

8

4
St. Louis

8

4
Detroit

8

3
Green Bay

8

3
New York

8

3
Pittsburgh

8

3
Tampa Bay

8

3
Jacksonville

7

4
Arizona

7

3
New York (J)

7

3
Oakland

7

3
San Diego

7

3
Cleveland

7

2
Washington

7

2
Buffalo

6

3
Dallas

6

3
Denver

6

3
Indianapolis

6

2
New England

5

3
Carolina

5

2
Chicago

5

2
New Orleans

5

2

 

Totals: 254

100
     
  •  Last years Super Bowl teams, San Francisco and Baltimore, account for 25 total picks, or approximately 10% of the picks in this years draft.
  • 7 out of the top 8 teams (in terms of draft picks) made the playoffs last year.  Miami being the lone exception.  Conversely, only 3 out of the bottom 8 teams made the playoffs.  This is not a coincidence.  Good team/roster management includes keeping and acquiring draft picks.
  • Speaking of Miami, if this offseason has shown us anything it’s that Jeff Ireland is GM-ing for his job.  We’d expect that trend to continue throughout the draft with Miami combining picks to move up the draft board.  This is a dangerous way to build a team.  We like the odds that Ireland is unemployed this time next year.
  • SF and Seattle have been in a bot of an arms race in terms of collecting talent.  The NFC West crown is up for grabs.  Both teams have plenty of ammunition to trade up to get “their” guy.  I expect SF to be particularly aggressive (DL/CB/WR).
  • Atlanta is 1 of 7 teams with double-digit picks.  Dimitroff has shown a penchant for being aggressive on draft day (Julio Jones).  Atlanta is a candidate to move up in the top ten.
  • I think Oakland, Carolina, Buffalo and Indianapolis will actively look to trade down when possible.  Although, I think Bills and the Colts will target a QB and OL, respectively, in the first round.
  • New Orleans is interesting in that they are tied with for the fewest picks (5) but also must feel they are close to competing for the division title (3 years removed from SB and getting Sean Payton back).  However, BountyGate has really taken its toll on this roster (particularly) the defense.  The Saints would be wise to trade down early and often this year.
  • It will be interesting to see if Jerry Jones can stay put this year, as he only has 6 picks to work with.

Mock Draft (v4.0) – One Week Warning!

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NFL DraftThat’s right, we’re one week from the Main Event!  The Machine is in full mock mode; Roid Rage gets Version 4 kicked off with picks 1-16 and Ginger King rounds out the bottom half: (Leave your comments below).

1

 Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel OL Texas A&M
Analysis:  It looks like the Chiefs have moved on from their starting tackles from a year ago, cutting Eric Winston and broadcasting Brandon Albert’s availability (mid-to-low round pick).  So this pick will either be Joeckle or Fisher.  The Machine prefers Fishers upside and nasty demeanor in the trenches.  Joeckle’s no slouch though; he’s the prototypical NFL LT.

2

 Jacksonville Jaguars: Dion Jordan OLB Oregon
Analysis:  “Jags are a mess, and need help at every position”.  I couldn’t have said it better myself.  They’d love the opportunity to trade down, but nobody is going to be willing to pay the premium.  Caldwell, Bradley and Khan (the Jaguar brain trust) are all onboard with this selection.

3

 Oakland Raiders Star Lotulelei DT Utah
Analysis:  You’ve got to hand it to McKenzie, he isn’t afraid to stick to his guns!  He is yet to find a player he hasn’t wanted to cut (Routt, Seymour, Huff, Kelly, DHB, McClain).  The Raiders have needs at literally every position.  McKenzie grabs the BPA.

4

 Philadelphia Eagles Shariff Floyd DT Florida
Analysis:  First of all, Chip Kelly is calling the shots here.  And Chip is so confident…cough, arrogant, cough…that his offensive system is superior to anything the NFL has ever seen that his only concern is building a shutdown defense.  They go defensive heavy in this draft, starting with the Philly kid, Floyd.  Milliner is in the mix here too.

5

 Detroit Lions Eric Fisher OL C. Michigan
Analysis:  This seems like a dream scenario for Detroit with the loss of tackles Cherilus (free agency) and Backus (retirement).  However, I think there is a coin flips chance that E. Ansah is the pick here.  They also lost defensive ends Vanden Bosch and Avril this offseason.  What a mess.  In related news, Jim Schwartz will probably be looking for a new job come December.

6

 Cleveland Browns Lane Johnson OL Oklahoma
Analysis:  Do I think the Browns draft an offensive linemen with their first pick? No.  But this is the ideal spot for the Dolphins to trade up and snatch Johnson before he falls to the Cardinals.  Johnson is viewed by some as 1C to Joeckle/Fisher this year.  If the Browns don’t trade down, this pick is E. Ansah or B. Mingo all day long (with Geno Smith as a dark horse).  Many people, myself included, think the Browns are putting up a smoke screen (from burning all those Pilot J documents) with these reports that Milliner is their No. 1 priority.  They draft DE/OLB if they stay put.

7

 Arizona Cardinals Barkevious Mingo DE LSU
Analysis:  Cards need pressure from the end.  Problem solved (plus best name in the Draft).

8

 Buffalo Bills Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse
Analysis:  I’m totally buying the Syracuse connection here.  So much so that the Bills prefer Nassib to Smith and stay true to their board.  They’ll get crucified in the mainstream media in this scenario.  However, a fair amount of talent evaluators (Lande, Cosell, Gruden) have Nassib rated as their No. 1 QB this year.

9

 NY Jets Geno Smith QB West Virginia
Analysis:  This should allow the team to abort their collection of dumbster fires- Sanchez, Garrard, Tebow, McElroy, Simms- at QB.  More importantly, Rex will be able to use the “Rookie QB” excuse to buy himself a few more years.

10

 Tennessee Titans Dee Milliner CB Alabama
Analysis:  Hard to come up with a scenario where Milliner slips out of the Top 10; this is his floor.

11

 San Diego Chargers Tavon Austin WR West Virginia
Analysis:  Sure, the Chargers need offensive linemen in the worst way, but guards and tackles can’t score touchdowns on any given play, from the outside, slot, out of the backfield, returning kicks/punts, etc.  Austin is electric with the ball in his hands.  For his sake (and ours as fans) let’s hope he can hold up through a 16 game schedule.

12

 Miami Dolphins Ezekiel Ansah DE BYU
Analysis:  I think the Dolphins jump into the top 8 to grab a OT (from the Browns at 6 in this scenario).  Since I think Ansah could go six to the Browns in the first place, getting him here is an absolute steal and makes the risk a bit more tolerable.

13

 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Desmond Trufant CB Washington
Analysis: I absolutely feel a CB will get drafted out of the 13 spot.  Whether it’s the Bucs or Jets remains to be seen.

14

 Carolina Panthers Kenny Vaccaro S Texas
Analysis: The Panther have neglected the DT spot for years.  Why would this year be any different?  They grab the BPA in the ultra versatile Vaccaro.  His tape vs. Tavon Austin speaks volumes to his abilities.

15

 New Orleans Saints Datone Jones DE UCLA
Analysis:  One of my personal favorites in this draft.  Really feel like the Saints move down considering their lack of picks and talent.  Defense is a must, Jones becomes one of their best defensive players.

16

 St. Louis Rams Chance Warmack OG ALA
Analysis:  Pains me to see Warmack slip this far; such is the life of OG’s in the NFL (see: David DeCastro last year….#24).  Helps solidify an improving Rams OL.

17

 Pittsburgh Steelers Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia
Analysis:  Pittsburgh stays true to its board (and team philosophy) and addresses defense first.  With Harrison gone, this is looking more and more likely.  WR is an option, but (a) the Steelers don’t draftin WRs in the first round and (b) keeping Emmanual Sanders makes this less of a need.

18

 Dallas Cowboys Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri
Analysis:  Cowboys will either go OL or DL here.  Jonathon Cooper’s an option, but Richardson provides way too much value here. 

19

 NY Giants Bjoern Werner DT Florida State
Analysis:  A Top 5 pick two months ago, Bjoern has slipped down the draft.  He did not help his cause at the Combine, which has likely contributed to his slide.  However, the tape on him is impressive.  Raw, athletic, albeit a little inexperienced.  None of that is a problem for the G-Men, who love taking those ingredients and creating a dominant DE (see:  JPP).

20

 Chicago Bears Manti Te’o ILB Notre Dame
Analysis:  Ok we’re buying this (for now).  For all the things wrong with Manti (fake dead girlfriend, horribly exposed during Nat’l Championship game, 4.82 40 which has since dropped into the 4.7s at his pro day) there’s one thing going for him:  he’s a natural born leader.  Alec Ogletree may be the more athletic choice, but Manti fits the role to replace Brian Urlacher.  Even though Lennay HATES cold weather, he makes sense here.

21

 Cincinnati Bengals DJ Fluker OL Alabama
Analysis:  The only question is whether DJ will last this long.

22

 St. Louis Rams Jonathon Cooper OG North Carolina
Analysis:  Another offensive lineman?  How does that make sense?  Check out the Niners in 2010 (Anthony Davis at 11 and Mike Iupati at 17)  With Warmack, Cooper, and Jake Long, the Rams would arguably have the best line in the league.

23

 Minnesota Vikings Alec Ogletree ILB Georgia
Analysis:  Vikes would love it if Alec made it to them here.

24

 Indianapolis Colts Tank Carradine DE Florida St.
Analysis: The Colts need to get young on the outside.  Freeney is gone and Robert Mathis is on the wrong side of 30.

25

 Minnesota Vikings Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee
Analysis:  Even with Jennings, the Vikes need more weapons for Ponder.

26

 Green Bay Packers DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson
Analysis:   Now begins the run on WRs.  They re-signed Clay Mathews which means the focus should be on improving the offense.  Hopkins will soften the blow from losing Jennings.

27

 Houston Texans Robert Woods WR USC
Analysis:  A pefect complement to Andre Johnson.  Woods has risen up draft boards and looks certain to go in the late first round.  Doesn’t have jaw dropping speed but catches everything his way and, having played in a pro-style offense at USC, is the most NFL-ready WR in the draft.

28

 Denver Broncos Jamar Taylor CB Boise St.
Analysis:  Anyone see that playoff game, particularly the final 33 seconds of the fourth quarter?  Any questions?  Taylor has speed (4.32) and strength (22 reps) and hopefully enough knowledge to know that you don’t let the receiver get behind you for a game tying 70 yard touchdown pass with 30 seconds to go.

29

 New England Patriots Margus Hunt DE SMU
Analysis:  Patriots love versatile defenders that can play with a hand down at the line or standing up to drop back.  With either of these last four picks (from NE to Balt) we expect some team in the early second to trade up to grab a qb. 

30

 Atlanta Falcons Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame
Analysis:  Who better to learn from than Gonzo?

31

 San Francisco 49ers Justin Hunter WR Tennessee
Analysis:  Niners could use a solid #2 WR.  Keenan Allen will be in the mix too, but testing positive for weed at the Combine shows a complete lack of judgment and responsibility (dude, toke up after the Combine).  This likely drops him to the second round.

32

 Baltimore Ravens Eric Reid S LSU
Analysis:  For defending Super Bowl Champions, the Ravens have a surprising number of holes to fill.  That will happen when your entire team takes their rings and runs.  Reid will help add some stability in the secondary.   

2013 NFL Draft – Risers and Fallers

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NFL DraftWe’re almost two weeks away from the Draft.  The Machine’s busy pouring over game tape and pro day results.  Here’s our list of Top 5 Risers and Fallers. 

Top 5 Risers

  1. Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon.  An afterthought on most draft boards a few months ago, Dion is now on everyone’s radar, and a consensus Top 5 pick (The Machine has him at #2).  Being called the best athlete in the draft will do that for you.
  2. Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia.  Comparisons to Percy Harvin and Desean Jackson have Tavon jockeying to be the first WR off the board.
  3. Star Loutelelei, DT, Utah.  Even when those initial heart rumors surfaced, Star only dropped to the middle of the first round.  Now that those concerns have been alleviated (somewhat) Star is creeping back up to the Top 10. 
  4. Robert Woods, WR, USC.  Despite not having top end speed, Woods catches everything his way, arguably a more important quality for a WR.  He’s a polished receiver that can run any route.  Could he run his way into the first round?
  5. Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise St.  Boise St. is starting to get some recognition on the other side of the ball.  The combo of blazing speed (4.39) and strength (22 reps) have Jamar quickly climbing draft boards.

Honorable Mentions:  Arthur Brown, Justin Hunter, D.J. Hayden, Datone Jones

Top 5 Fallers

  1. Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M.  Damontre is having a DaQuan Bowers like tumble (without the injury) and may be headed out of the first round.  12 reps at the Combine does not bode well.
  2. Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama.  Not being able to fully workout at Bama’s pro day hasn’t done much to assuage concerns about durability.
  3. Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia.  Jarvis rolled the dice and opted not to work out at the Combine, putting everything on his pro day.  The results:  luke warm.  Slow in the 40 (4.92) and character issues are not a good combination.
  4. Mike Glennon, QB, NC State.  Mike has gotten lost in the discussion of “quarterbacks after Geno” and looks to have fallen down to Round 3.
  5. Nickell Robey, CB, USC.  Whoever told Nickell to leave after his junior year should be ashamed (or fired).  He was inconsistent all year, and uninspiring in workouts.  The Machine has him falling to the middle rounds on Day 3.

Honorable Mentions:  Kawaan Short, Tyrann Mathieu, Alex Okafor

2013 Top-5 Draft Prospects by Position

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QB

  1. Geno Smith, WVU
  2. Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
  3. Tyler Wilson, Arkansas
  4. Matt Barkley, USC
  5. Zac Dysert, Miami (OH)

RB

  1. Eddie Lacy, Alabama
  2. Giovani Bernard, UNC
  3. Montee Ball, Wisconsin
  4. Johnathon Franklin, UCLA
  5. Le’Veon Bell, Michigan State

WR

  1. Tavon Austin, WVU
  2. Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
  3. Keenan Allen, Cal
  4. Justin Hunter, Tennessee
  5. Robert Woods, USC

TE

  1. Tyler Eifert, ND
  2. Zack Ertz, Stanford
  3. Gavin Escobar, SD State
  4. Travis Kelce, Cincinnati
  5. Vance McDonald, Rice

OT

  1. Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
  2. Luke Joeckle, Texas A&M
  3. Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
  4. DJ Fluker, Alabama
  5. Menelik Watson, Florida State

OG

  1. Chance Warmack, Alabama
  2. Jonathan Cooper, UNC
  3. Larry Warford, Kentucky
  4. Brian Winters, Kent State
  5. Hugh Thorton, Illinois

C

  1. Travis Fredrick, Wisconsin
  2. Barrett Jones, Alabama
  3. Brian Schwenke, Cal
  4. Khaled Holmes, USC
  5. Matt Stankiewitch, Penn State

______________________________________________________________________

DE

  1. Ezekial Ansah, BYU
  2. Bjoern Werner, Florida State
  3. Cornellius Carradine, Florida State
  4. Datone Jones, UCLA
  5. Margus Hunt, Southern Methodist

DT

  1. Star Lotulelei, Utah
  2. Sharrif Floyd, Florida
  3. Sheldon Richardson, Missouri
  4. Sylvester Williams, UNC
  5. Kawaan Short, Purdue

ILB

  1. Kevin Minter, LSU
  2. Manti T’eo, ND
  3. Jon Bostic, Florida
  4. Kiko Alonso, Oregon
  5. AJ Klein, Iowa State

OLB

  1. Dion Jordan, Oregon
  2. Barkevious Mingo, LSU
  3. Jarvis Jones, Georgia
  4. Arthur Brown, Kansas State
  5. Alec Ogletree, Georgia

CB

  1. Dee Milliner, Alabama
  2. Xavier Rhodes, Florida State
  3. Desmond Trufant, Washington
  4. Blidi Wreh-Wilson, Connecticut
  5. Jamar Taylor, Boise State

FS

  1. Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
  2. Eric Reid, LSU
  3. DJ Swearinger, South Carolina
  4. Phillip Thomas, Fresno State
  5. Bacarri Rambo, Georgia

SS

  1. Matt Elam, Florida
  2. Jonathan Cyprien, Florida International
  3. Shamarko Thomas, Syracuse
  4. JJ Wilcox, Georgia Southern
  5. Shawn Williams, Georgia

 

 

 

Mock Draft (v 3.0) – Post Free Agency

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NFL Draft BoardHere we go.  Our post-free agency draft.  Confirming our belief that this year’s QB class is less than desired, several teams have signed free agent quaterbacks to lead them in 2013 (see Buffalo, Oakland, and (soon to be) Arizona).  Those, plus all other relevant signings have been taken into account in this latest mock.  Leave your comments below.

1

 Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M
Analysis:  Even if Brandon Albert stays long term (not likely) Luke makes sense here.  If the Chiefs can’t convince another team to trade up for Geno Smith (Lord knows they’re trying), Luke should be the first player off the board.

2

 Jacksonville Jaguars: Dion Jordan OLB Oregon
Analysis:  Pure speed…the only thing faster is how quick he’s shot up the draft board.  Jags are a mess, and need help at every position.  Dion can line up at OLB and DE, and provides the versatility they need.

3

 Oakland Raiders Sharrif Floyd DT Florida
Analysis:  Signing Matt Flynn ends any speculation of Geno Smith here.  Floyd provides much needed stability to the D-line.

4

 Philadelphia Eagles Geno Smith QB West Virginia
Analysis:  You gotta believe the Eagles’ board has Joeckel #1, and Eric Fisher may get a look here, but Chip Kelly can’t pass up Geno Smith.  The perfect QB to run his system.

5

 Detroit Lions Ezikel Ansah DE BYU
Analysis:  Signing Chris Houston makes CB less of a need, and Detroit should take a long and hard look at Dee Millner.  However, the loss of Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril should make DE their #1 priority.

6

 Cleveland Browns Dee Millner CB ALA
Analysis:  Arguably the best athlete in the Draft.  Cleveland can’t pass up the value here.

7

 Arizona Cardinals Barkevious Mingo DE LSU
Analysis:  Cards need pressure from the end.  Problem solved (plus best name in the Draft).

8

 Buffalo Bills Eric Fisher OL Central Mich
Analysis:  Right or wrong, signing Kolb = no first round QB.  If Fisher is available, Buddy Nix should run this pick up to the podium. 

9

 NY Jets Tavon Austin WR West Virginia
Analysis:  The wild card team in the Top 10.  Rex Ryan and co. need to make a splash.  Tavon possesses Desean Jackson-like speed and elusiveness.  Will help immediately in the passing game and on kickoffs/punt returns.

10

 Tennessee Titans Chance Warmack OG Alabama
Analysis:  Value, meet need pick.  Need pick, meet value. 

11

 San Diego Chargers Lane Johnson OL Oklahoma
Analysis:  This pick will be OL, and San Diego snags the last of the Top 3 OL.  

12

 Miami Dolphins Xavier Rhodes CB FSU
Analysis:  Fills a huge hole.

13

 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Desmond Trufant CB Washington
Analysis: Unless the Bucs swing a deal for Revis Island, expect a corner to go here.

14

 Carolina Panthers Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tenn
Analysis: Ranked as the best WR among the experts, Carolina would be ecstatic if Cordarrelle fell to them here.

15

 New Orleans Saints Star Loutelelei NT Utah
Analysis:  Big, intimidating force with a minor heart problem.  Sounds like Rob Ryan just drafted himself.

16

 St. Louis Rams Jonathon Cooper OG North Carolina
Analysis:  Alongside Jake Long would provide some much needed stability and toughness to the O-line.

17

 Pittsburgh Steelers Jarvis Jones LB Georgia
Analysis:  Pittsburgh stays true to its board (and team philosophy) and addresses defense first.

18

 Dallas Cowboys Menelik Watson OL Texas
Analysis:  Not a flashy pick by Jerrah standards, but the Cowboys need to protect their new $100 million man. 

19

 NY Giants Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri
Analysis:  No one’s better at picking value over need than the Giants.  Even with other holes to fill (CB, LB, OL) Richardson is too much value to pass up here.

20

 Chicago Bears Alec Ogletree LB Georgia
Analysis:  Brian who?  Alec provides much needed youth to the Bears LB corps.

21

 Cincinnati Bengals Kenny Vaccaro S Texas
Analysis:  The only question is whether Kenny will last this long.

22

 St. Louis Rams Eddie Lacy RB Alabama
Analysis:  Softens the blow from losing Steven Jackson.

23

 Minnesota Vikings Bjoern Werner DE Florida St.
Analysis:  Jared Allen part 2.

24

 Indianapolis Colts Tank Carradine DE Florida St.
Analysis: Back to back Seminoles.  The Colts need to get young on the outside.  Freeney is gone and Robert Mathis is on the wrong side of 30.

25

 Minnesota Vikings Keenan Allen WR Cal
Analysis:  Even with Jennings, the Vikes need more weapons for Ponder.

26

 Green Bay Packers Damontre Moore DE Texas A&M
Analysis:  DaMonster’s fall from draft boards ends with the Packers.

27

 Houston Texans DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson
Analysis:  A great complement to Andre Johnson.

28

 Denver Broncos Johnthan Banks CB Miss St.
Analysis:  Anyone see that playoff game, particularly the final 33 seconds of the fourth quarter?  Any questions?

29

 New England Patriots Jesse Williams NT Alabama
Analysis:  Run stopping mauler.

30

 Atlanta Falcons Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame
Analysis:  Who better to learn from than Gonzo?

31

 San Francisco 49ers Justin Hunter WR Tennessee
Analysis:  Niners could use a solid #2 WR.

32

 Baltimore Ravens Manti Te’o LB Notre Dame
Analysis:  Will be the most scrutinized player drafted.  Add to that the pressure of replacing Ray Lewis plus convincing Lennay that Baltimore’s a great place to raise a family. 

2013 NFL Mock Draft (v2.0)

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Free Agency Eve Edition! As teams are putting the finishing touches on player evaluations and GM’s are gearing up for Tuesdays free agent frenzy, The Machine decided now would be a great time to post a mock draft!  Sure, “team needs” will be drastically different 24-hours from now, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. Now, onto the madness……….(by Roid Rage)……

1

 Kansas City Chiefs: Dee Milliner CB  
Analysis: QB…check; WR…check; LT…check.  I like the idea of pairing Dee with Brandon Flowers to allow Eric Berry to roam in the box.  Plus, the Chiefs can still bolster their O-line as the draft is deep with quality interior  linemen that should be available in R2 and beyond.

2

 Jacksonville Jaguars: Luke Joeckel LT  
Analysis: Players of Joeckel’s caliber don’t come along every year.  A better prospect than Kalil last year; Joeckel will be a rock for whomever is the Jaguars long-term QB.

3

 Oakland Raiders Geno Smith QB  
Analysis: Reggie McKenzie and Dennis Allen inherited a mess.  Carson Palmer (didn’t have a bad year) isn’t going to be around much longer.  Smith gives the team a QB to build around.

4

 Philadelphia Eagles Dion Jordan OLB/DE  
Analysis: Super-Freak, Super-Freak.

5

 Detroit Lions Eric Fisher LT  
Analysis: Team-need meet Value-pick, Value-pick meet Team-need.

6

 Cleveland Browns Barkevious Mingo OLB  
Analysis: Disruptive edge rusher = defensive coordinators dream

7

 Arizona Cardinals Sharrif Floyd DT  
Analysis: Dynamic interior defender.  Could go first overall to KC; this is about his floor.

8

 Buffalo Bills Ryan Nassib QB  
Analysis: The Bills have a terrible poker face and QB’s ALWAYS go way too high.  See: Jake Locker, Mark Sanchez, Christian Ponder, Ryan Tannehill.

9

 NY Jets Ezekiel Ansah DE  
Analysis:  Rex Ryan will probably break the table to see this pick through.

10

 Tennessee Titans Sheldon Richardson DT  
Analysis:  Value for sure.  A great addition to their defense.

11

 San Diego Chargers Lane Johnson LT  
Analysis:  SD needs about 5 offensive linemen.  They get an ultra athletic one in Johnson here.

12

 Miami Dolphins Bjoern Werner DE  
Analysis:  Relentless motor to play opposite Cameron Wake.  Winning the AFC East boils down to one thing: pressuring Brady.

13

 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Xavier Rhodes CB  
Analysis:  NEED & VALUE!  It’s already a successful draft for the Bucs.

14

 Carolina Panthers Star Lotulelei DT  
Analysis:  Slips a bit due to the heart concerns.  Carolina willing to gamble on his upside as they got run all over last year.

15

 New Orleans Saints Jarvis Jones OLB  
Analysis: Rob Ryan will probably break the table to see this pick through.  The Ryan boys enjoy breaking tables apparently.

16

 St. Louis Rams Cordarrelle Patterson WR  
Analysis:  Hard to see a player of Pattersons caliber getting past Buffalo, Miami and Carolina.  Quick, name the WR’s the Rams have under contract…..

17

 Pittsburgh Steelers Chance Warmack OG  
Analysis:  Is there a better player/team fit than Chance to the Steelers?

18

 Dallas Cowboys Kenny Vaccaro S  
Analysis:  Jerrah loves making the splash pick.  That’s why he’ll probably move into the top-12 to pick Vaccaro.

19

 NY Giants Desmond Trufant CB  
Analysis:  Patiently wait their turn and make a solid selection.  Just another day at the office.

20

 Chicago Bears Damontre Moore DE  
Analysis:  Lands in the perfect situation to fine tune his game.

21

 Cincinnati Bengals Alec Ogletree OLB  
Analysis:  Off-the-field trouble?!  Welcome to Cincinnati!

22

 St. Louis Rams Matt Elam S  
Analysis:  As if the NFC West needed another big-hitter!

23

 Minnesota Vikings Tavon Austin WR  
Analysis:  Well, if anyone has a chance to fill Percy Harvin’s shoes it’s the dynamic Austin.

24

 Indianapolis Colts Jonathan Cooper OG  
Analysis:  Priority No. 1 – Protect Andrew Luck.  Priority No. 2 – See Priority No. 1.

25

 Minnesota Vikings Jesse Williams DT  
Analysis:  The youth movement continues.

26

 Green Bay Packers Jonathan Cyprien S  
Analysis:  Quietly, Green Bay has a lot of holes in their defense.  Need to address the secondary in this draft.

27

 Houston Texans Cornellius Carradine DE  
Analysis:  High risk, high reward!  Could be the best pass-rusher of this class.  (Could)

28

 Denver Broncos Eddie Lacy RB  
Analysis:  Seems like a good fit.

29

 New England Patriots DeAndre Hopkins WR  
Analysis:  I’m much more comfortable mocking “trades down” to NE than I am with actually picking a player.  Hopkins makes a ton of sense though.

30

 Atlanta Falcons Arthur Brown OLB  
Analysis:  We all know what the offense is capable of.  Now they need to add speed and play-making ability to the defense.

31

 Baltimore Ravens Kevin Minter ILB  
Analysis:  Not exactly Ray Lewis (who is?!), but Minter should do fine in that defense.

32

 San Francisco 49ers Kawann Short DT  
Analysis:  SF will be looking to add defensive linemen and wide receivers (and in that order).

Tuesday Teabag, March 5, 2013 – Franchise Tag Edition!

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Yesterday was the deadline for NFL teams to utilize the Franchise Tag.  The Franchise Tag basically allows teams to retain the exclusive rights to one (1) unrestricted free agent (UFA) every off-season;  in return for losing the ability to become a free agent, the player will receive the average of the top five (5) salaries for their position.  You can bang it here for more information regarding the nuances of the tag designations.

The important thing to remember is that the Franchise Tag has been collectively bargained as part of the labor agreement between the NFL and the NFLPA.  It gives teams the ability to retain young, up-and-coming talent or fan-favorite veterans.  From the union’s point of view, it compensates tagged players with the top earners at a given postion, while allowing a majority of UFA’s the ability to hit the open market.  Further, a Franchise Contract, albeit for one-year, is fully guaranteed!

However, if you were to believe the players and media, the Franchise Tag is an evil instrument that the good ‘ol boy owners/GMs use to repress the players.  Every offseason, a majority of “tagged” players take to the media/interviews/twitter to lament the franchise tag.  For instances, when The Machine took a break today from image searching Kate Upton, we stumbled upon an article by Alex Marvez on Fox Sports website titled: Let’s Meet the NFL’s Unlucky Eight.  Marvez takes up the players (read: agents) argument that the eight (8) tagged players “aren’t getting the financial security that comes with long-term contracts”, and are therefore “unlucky”.  Huh.  Isn’t Top-Five NFL money financial security in and of its own right?!  In a league without guaranteed contracts, isn’t signing the dotted line knowing that you’re getting every single penny worth something?!

Here are the “Unlucky Eight” with their projected 2013 salary, in millions of dollars (2012 salary in parenthesis):

  1. Randy Starks, DT $8.45 ($5.0)… 69% raise
  2. Jarius Bryd, S $6.92 ($1.07)… 547% raise
  3. Henry Melton, DT $8.45 ($0.69)…1,125% raise
  4. Pat McAfee, P $2.98 ($1.32)… 126% raise
  5. Ryan Clady, OL $9.83 ($5.83)… 69% raise
  6. Anthony Spencer, LB $10.6* ($8.86)… *20% automatic raise from second consecutive tag.
  7. Michael Johnson, DE $11.2 ($1.62)…617% raise
  8. Branden Albert, OL $9.83 ($4.19)…  135% raise

That is a nice group of players, no doubt.  It is easy to see why teams choose to lock these guys up for at least another year in hopes of working out a long-term deal.  However, outside of Jarius Bryd, you could make a strong argument that none of these guys are Top-5 at their respective position.  Henry Melton is a good young player that really came on for the Bears defense last year.  He is a reliable starter for sure, with potential to turn into a star.  That said, he only had 6 sacks last year and has never had more than 7 in a year (2011).  Not exactly the type of player you “game plan” for.  Yet, he’ll be making $8.45 million (fully guaranteed) this year.  That’s more money than his entire rookie contract paid him.  Seems like “fair” and “financially securing” type of money for one years work.  Further, if Micheal Johnson tears a peck five games into the 2013 season, while registering a handful of sacks and playing up to his typical level of play do you mean to tell us an NFL franchise isn’t going to throw a ton of money his way as a 2014 free agent?!  How did that (exact scenario) work out for Mario Williams last year (sidenote: Micheal Johnson is nowhere near the player Williams is, yet.  But the point is still valid)?  Teams (the smart ones anyways) sign players for their remaining production/potential, not for what they’ve previously accomplished.

Listen, The Machine is all about athlete’s cashing in and getting as much money as they can.  Their careers are ridiculously short, we get it.  But no matter how you slice it, the Franchise Tag isn’t a bad deal.  In every case it represents a (significant) pay raise and establishes a players  “floor value” for future negotiations;  because any good agent is going to use the “franchise type player” line when they get a chance.  Oh, which reminds us of this tiny little did you know: agents of players that receive the franchise tag are not allowed the full 3% commission on the contract.  They are only allowed to charge 2%, and in a second consecutive tag situation (like Anthony Spencer above) the agent is only allowed 1.5%.  Which begs the question, is the root of the hatred for the tag bore at the sports agent level and publicly reflected through the players?  Regardless, the franchise tag should be embraced by the players as a means of getting paid like one of the top players in the league!  Until that day, we offer a nice warm Tuesday Teabag to all of you Franchise Tag haters!  Enjoy!