WEEK 2 Staff Picks ATS (2013)

WEEK 2         Roid Rage     Ginger King     Dr. Mike     Vegas Vinny
        W L T     W L T     W L T     W L T
    Last Week 4 11 1     7 8 1     9 6 1     5 10 1
    Season to-date 4 11 1     7 8 1     9 6 1     5 10 1
                                         
Date & Time Favorite Spread Underdog Total                      
9/12 8:25 ET At New England    -12 NY Jets 44   NYJ     NE     NYJ     NYJ
9/15 1:00 ET At Philadelphia    -7.5 San Diego 54.5   PHI     PHI     SD     SD
9/15 1:00 ET At Baltimore    -6.5 Cleveland 43.5   BALT     BALT     CLE     BALT
9/15 1:00 ET At Houston    -9 Tennessee 43   TENN     HOU     HOU     TENN
9/15 1:00 ET At Indianapolis    -3 Miami 42.5   MIA     INDY     INDY     INDY
9/15 1:00 ET Carolina    -3 At Buffalo 44   CAR     BUF     BUF     BUF
9/15 1:00 ET At Atlanta    -7 St. Louis 47   STL     STL     ATL     ATL
9/15 1:00 ET At Green Bay    -7.5 Washington 49.5   GB     GB     GB     WASH
9/15 1:00 ET At Kansas City    -2.5 Dallas 46.5   DAL     DAL     DAL     DAL
9/15 1:00 ET At Chicago    -6 Minnesota 41.5   CHI     CHI     CHI     MINN
9/15 4:05 ET New Orleans    -3 At Tampa Bay 47   NO     NO     NO     NO
9/15 4:05 ET Detroit    -1.5 At Arizona 47.5   ARIZ     ARIZ     DET     DET
9/15 4:25 ET At Oakland    -6 Jacksonville 39.5   JAX     OAK     JAC     OAK
9/15 4:25 ET Denver    -4.5 At NY Giants 55   NYG     DEN     DEN     DEN
9/15 8:30 ET At Seattle    -3 San Francisco 44.5   SEA     SF     SF     SF
9/16 8:40 ET At Cincinnati    -7 Pittsburgh 40.5   CINCY     PITT     CINCY     CINCY
        Lock of the Week   BALT     NO     CHI     INDY
        LOTW Record   0 1 0     0 1 0     0 1 0     0 1 0
                                               

Dr. Mike’s Injury Report – New England Patriots

Question: Who will Brady throw to against the Jets?  Answer: it doesn't matter.

Question: Who will Brady throw to against the Jets?
Answer: It doesn’t matter.

Just in time for tonight’s match up against the Jets, Dr. Mike provides us with another pulitzer-prize worthy write-up.

As avid haters of all things Boston (Sam Adams and Harpoon notable exceptions), the injury bug that is plaguing the Patriots makes The Machine wicked happy (note: anyone over the age of 25 that uses “wicked” in their daily vernacular should be shot on site).  However, what do all of these injuries mean for our fantasy teams, and, what do they mean for those of you (like Ginger King) that picked New England in this weeks’ Survivor Pool?  Dr. Mike explains. 

First, let’s talk about the RB position. Shane Vereen played almost the entire game on Sunday with a fractured wrist bone (for that Dr. Mike gives him the Bad Ass of the Week Award), but was placed on IR with designation to return after it was decided he would undergo surgical stabilization of the fractured bone (which may or may not have displaced because he played the whole game).  This means he is ineligible to practice for 6 weeks and cannot play in a game for 8.  The Pats are off Week 10, so the earliest he can return is Week 11.  I am going to assume (since the Pats organization does not release any information that they are not required) that the fractured bone is his scaphoid.  This small peanut shaped bone on the thumb side of your wrist is the most common fractured carpal (wrist) bone (and fractures are commonly misdiagnosed as sprains).  The issue with the scaphoid is the lack of blood supply to half of the bone when fractured.  Surgical fixation should correct this problem (up to 10% of fixated scaphoids fail).  The time off will be plenty of time for his wrist to heal, but he will have to undergo rehab to get back his motion and strength.  Bottom line is unless you have an IR spot on your roster; it is safe to release Vereen, and maybe snag him off the wire after Week 9. 

The Pats are not short on RB options.  In theory Stevan Ridley should see a significant amount of action on Thursday night, but since his fumblitis (a/k/a David Wilson Disorder) has recently flared up again, he will probably be on a short leash.  After Ridley that leaves Leon Washington, LaGarrette Blount, and Brandon Boldon.  Out of these 3 guys only Washington is a viable weapon in the passing game (though he is listed a questionable because the Pats put everyone on the injury report).  Unless you are short on RB’s in an extremely deep league, you should avoid all 3 of these guys like a four-toothed hooker. 

Now on to the WR/TE position.  Oft-injured Danny Amendola is at it again, this time with a flared-up groin injury.  He is currently listed as “doubtful”, but he is almost a guarantee not to play Week 2.  These injuries tend to nag and, with Amendola’s history of injuries, I would not be surprised if he is out until Week 4 or 5.  It’s not time to panic, and I would not release Amendola, but you better find a good backup.  This groin injury could be an ongoing theme this year, especially if the Pats try to bring him back too soon. 

With Gronk still out for at least another week and Zach Sudfeld’s hamstring issue, the Pats are thin at TE.  Hamstring injuries have a tendency to flare-up and nag, especially if proper healing time is not given.  Sudfeld only saw 1 target in Week 1 and is now banged up, so his upside is limited and is unplayable in all fantasy leagues this week. 

So who on the Pats is startable this week?  As always, Tom Brady is a must start, but I would downgrade expectations as many of his weapons are out.  Even if the receiving corps was made up of Gisele and a bunch of her super model friends (supermodels in football pants…you’re welcome for the visual) Brady would still complete passes, but we saw how out of sync he was with Kenbrell Thompkins last week (14 targets only 4 receptions).  Julian Edelman is a start this week, and is the only real weapon Brady has in the passing game.  Stevan Ridley is a flex start in deeper leagues, but be ready for him to get pulled the first time the football even shimmies in his arm. 

Turning to the actual game itself, even with all these injuries, the Pats should have enough to outlast the Jets at home.  Unless, of course, this happens:

https://

Week 1 – What to Watch For

The sun is shining.  Birds are chirping.  Mrs. Machine is rocking her Big Red Sports Machine hoody.  That can only mean one thing:  it’s time for football!!! 

Yes, I’m back from my (perfectly timed) family vacation, and now, for the next six months, can focus on nothing but football (perhaps the occasional World Series game).  I’m already a perfect 1-0 on the season (suck it, Hank Goldberg) so let’s get right in to some of the Week 1 games we can’t wait for.

New England (+10) at Buffalo

It’s tough to bet on football on Week 1.  Tough, but not impossible.  One thing you want to look for Home Dogs.  The Pats at Gronk-less and double-digit favorites.  Buffalo is unveiling the much-hyped Doug Marrone, and the much-hyped EJ Manual.  With CJ Spiller and Stevie Johnson, EJ could become the missing piece of this young, revamped Bills offense.  If nothing else, we like the Bills -10 because it’s September, and Buffalo always plays its best ball early.  Spirits are high in Buffalo (for now), and the fans will carry them to a less than 10 point loss, which folks in Buffalo will consider a win.

Green Bay (-4.5) at San Francisco

Ginger King’s lock of the week (LOTW).  Aaron Rodgers and crew are back in San Fran and that playoff beat-down is still fresh in their minds.  This will likely be the only time all season the Pack are underdogs.  Both teams are the studs of the NFC.  Harbaugh and his tough as nails defense and read option (yes, it’s still a fad) offense, and McCarthy with his high-powered (and now balanced?) Green Bay Packers. 

This game has last second field goal written all over it. 

New York Giants (+3.5) at Dallas

Another game that should come down to the wire, The Giants march into Dallas, where they are undefeated (4-0) playing in the house that Jerrah built. Dez Bryant should be able to get past the G-Men secondary at will, the question is whether the Giants d-line can put enough pressure on Romo.  Eli has a healthy (for now) Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz, and the Giants will throw early and often, and sprinkle in the home run running game of David Wilson.  The Giants average 35 pts. a game in Jerrah’s house.  Expect a high scoring affair.

BRSM

WEEK 1 Staff Picks ATS (2013)

WEEK 1         Roid Rage     Ginger King     Dr. Mike     Vegas Vinny
 BRSM       W L T     W L T     W L T     W L T
    Last Week 0 0 0     0 0 0     0 0 0     0 0 0
    Season to-date 0 0 0     0 0 0     0 0 0     0 0 0
                                         
Date & Time Favorite Spread Underdog Total                      
9/5 8:30 ET At Denver    -7.5 Baltimore 48.5   BAL     DEN     DEN     DEN
9/8 1:00 ET New England    -10 At Buffalo 51   BUF     BUF     BUF      NE
9/8 1:00 ET At Pittsburgh    -7 Tennessee 42   PITT     TENN      TENN     PITT
9/8 1:00 ET At New Orleans    -3 Atlanta 54   ATL     NO      NO     ATL
9/8 1:00 ET Tampa Bay    -3 At NY Jets 39.5   TB     TB      TB     TB
9/8 1:00 ET Kansas City    -3.5 At Jacksonville 41   JAX     KC      JAX     KC
9/8 1:00 ET At Chicago    -3 Cincinnati 42   Cincy     Cincy      CHIC     Cincy
9/8 1:00 ET At Cleveland     PK Miami 41   CLE     MIA      MIA     MIA
9/8 1:00 ET Seattle    -3.5 At Carolina 45   SEA     SEA      SEA     SEA
9/8 1:00 ET At Detroit    -5 Minnesota 46.5   MINN     MINN      DET     MINN
9/8 1:00 ET At Indianapolis    -9.5 Oakland 47   Indy     Indy      Indy     Indy
9/8 4:25 ET At St. Louis    -5 Arizona 41   ARIZ     STL      ARIZ     STL
9/8 4:25 ET At San Francisco    -4.5 Green Bay 49   GB     GB      SF     GB
9/8 8:30 ET At Dallas    -3.5 NY Giants 48.5   DAL     NYG      NYG     DAL
9/9 7:10 ET At Washington    -3.5 Philadelphia 51   WASH     WASH      WASH     WASH
9/9 10:20 ET Houston    -4 At San Diego 44   HOU     HOU      HOU     HOU
        Lock of the Week   HOU     GB      TB     PITT
        LOTW Record   0 0 0     0 0 0     0 0 0     0 0 0
                                               

2013 Fantasy Football Pecking Order: RBs & WRs

At last, now that the salad (TEs) and appetizers (QBs) are consumed it’s time for the real meat & potatoes portion of fantasy football: RBs and WRs.  Let’s strap on the old feed bag and have at it shall we: (Note: Rankings are based on PPR-scoring, because lets face it, if you’re not doing PPR than you’re not doing it right)…

 Running Backs

Player Composite Rank Ginger King Roid Rage
Adrian Peterson (MIN) 1 1 1
Arian Foster (HOU) 2 2 5
Doug Martin (TBB) 3 4 3
LeSean McCoy (PHI) 4 5 6
Jamaal Charles (KCC) 5 7 4
C.J. Spiller (BUF) 6 9 2
Ray Rice (BAL) 7 3 9
Marshawn Lynch (SEA) 8 6 7
Alfred Morris (WAS) 9 8 11
Matt Forte (CHI) 10 11 8
Trent Richardson (CLE) 11 12 10
Chris Johnson (TEN) 12 10 15
Stevan Ridley (NEP) 13 17 12
David Wilson (NYG) 14 15 17
Steven Jackson (ATL) 15 16 16
Reggie Bush (DET) 16 18 14
Darren Sproles (NOS) 17 19 13
Frank Gore (SFO) 18 13 21
Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC) 19 14 20
DeMarco Murray (DAL) 20 20 24
Lamar Miller (MIA) 21 25 22
Ryan Mathews (SDC) 22 21 27
DeAngelo Williams (CAR) 23 31 19
Chris Ivory (NYJ) 24 26 25
Vick Ballard (IND) 25 22 30
Le’Veon Bell (PIT) 26 29 23
Mark Ingram (NOS) 27 23 34
Rashard Mendenhall (ARI) 28 30 28
Fred Jackson (BUF) 29 28 33
Andre Brown (NYG) 30 24 41
Bryce Brown (PHI) 31 34 32
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (CIN) 32 27 45
Jacquizz Rodgers (ATL) 33 35 37

 

Eddie Lacy (GBP) 34 33 42
Danny Woodhead (SDC) 35 32 47
Giovani Bernard (CIN) 36 43 36
Marcel Reece (OAK) 37 41 40
Ben Tate (HOU) 38 47 38
Daniel Thomas (MIA) 39 42 48
Denard Robinson (JAC) 40 44 46
Ahmad Bradshaw (IND) 41 48 43
Darren McFadden (OAK) 42 18
Montee Ball (DEN) 43 26
Pierre Thomas (NOS) 44 29
Vick Ballard (IND) 45 30
Shane Vereen (NEP) 46 35
Ryan Williams (ARI) 47 36
Michael Bush (CHI) 48 37
Donald Brown (IND) 49 39
LeGarrette Blount (NEP) 50 40
Daryl Richardson (STL) 51 44
Michael Turner (FA*) 52 45
Anthony Dixon (SFO) 53 46
Lance Dunbar (DAL) 54 49
Zac Stacy (STL) 55 50
Knowshon Moreno (DEN) 56 49

Wide Receivers

Player Composite Rank Ginger King Roid Rage
Calvin Johnson (DET) 1 1 1
Dez Bryant (DAL) 2 2 3
A.J. Green (CIN) 3 4 4
Brandon Marshall (CHI) 4 7 2
Julio Jones (ATL) 5 3 7
Andre Johnson (HOU) 6 5 9
Demaryius Thomas (DEN) 7 10 5
Vincent Jackson (TBB) 8 9 6
Victor Cruz (NYG) 9 8 8
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) 10 6 11
Roddy White (ATL) 11 11 12
Marques Colston (NOS) 12 16 10
Randall Cobb (GBP) 13 14 13
Wes Welker (DEN) 14 12 17
Reggie Wayne (IND) 15 15 18
Jordy Nelson (GBP) 16 18 15
Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 17 13 23
Danny Amendola (NEP) 18 22 16
DeSean Jackson (PHI) 19 17 24
Antonio Brown (PIT) 20 21 20
Pierre Garcon (WAS) 21 28 14
Eric Decker (DEN) 22 26 19
Steve Smith (CAR) 23 20 26

Stevie Johnson (BUF) 24 24 22
Dwayne Bowe (KCC) 25 23 25
Torrey Smith (BAL) 26 25 27
Mike Wallace (MIA) 27 19 35
James Jones (GBP) 28 30 32
T.Y. Hilton (IND) 29 34 28
Anquan Boldin (SFO) 30 32 31
Cecil Shorts (JAC) 31 47 21
Miles Austin (DAL) 32 29 41
Mike Williams (TBB) 33 31 38
Greg Jennings (MIN) 34 27 45
Kenny Britt (TEN) 35 33 40
Lance Moore (NOS) 36 37 37
Sidney Rice (SEA) 37 38 39
Justin Blackmon (JAC) 38 42 36
Golden Tate (SEA) 39 49 34
Kendall Wright (TEN) 40 44 42
Rueben Randle (NYG) 41 45 43
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) 42 43 49
Denarius Moore (OAK) 43 46 50
Mohamed Sanu (CIN) 44 33
Tavon Austin (STL) 45 35
Nate Burleson (DET) 46 36
Brian Hartline (MIA) 47 39
Devery Henderson (WAS) 48 40
Malcom Floyd (SDC) 49 41
Jeremy Kerley (NYJ) 50 46
Andrew Hawkins (CIN) 51 47
Vincent Brown (SDC) 52 48
Santana Moss (WAS) 53 48

BRSM

2013 Fantasy Football Pecking Order: TEs

For those of you that had Dustin Keller on your cheatsheets (here’s looking at you Ginger King), consider sending DJ Swearinger a thank you card…..

 

Player Composite Rank Ginger King Roid Rage
Jimmy Graham (NOS) 1 1 1
Rob Gronkowski (NEP) 2 3 2
Tony Gonzalez (ATL) 3 2 5
Vernon Davis (SFO) 4 4 4
Jason Witten (DAL) 5 5 3
Kyle Rudolph (MIN) 6 7 6
Brandon Pettigrew (DET) 7 6 11
Brandon Myers (NYG) 8 8 9
Jermaine Gresham (CIN) 9 10 10
Greg Olsen (CAR) 10 13 8
Martellus Bennett (CHI) 11 14 7
Antonio Gates (SDC) 12 12 12
Owen Daniels (HOU) 13 9 16
Jermichael Finley (GBP) 14 11 15
Heath Miller (PIT) 15 19 13
Marcedes Lewis (JAC) 16 15 18
Jared Cook (STL) 17 17 17
Jordan Cameron (CLE) 18 14
Fred Davis (WAS) 19 16
Dustin Keller (MIA) 20 18
Robert Housler (ARI) 21 19
Ed Dickson (BAL) 22 20
Dwayne Allen (IND) 23 20

 BRSM

2013 Fantasy Football Pecking Order: QBs

Football is king; the proof is in the ratings-pudding!  For the broadcast week-ending August 4, 2013 (BW45), not only was the Dallas Cowboys v. Miami Dolphins HOF Game the top rated sports broadcast, it was the highest rated program, period.  And the pre-game show/ceremony was the second-rated show for the week!  Hey Ryan Braun, LA Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates, A-Roid and all other MLB storylines: thanks for carrying us through the summer; the big boys have laced them up, we’ll see you guys in April!

You can bet your ass those ratings consist of a large number of fantasy owners checking to see what veterans have lost a step, scouting late round sleepers, and getting an overall vibe from each team as they gear up for fantasy drafts!  The Machine is running on all cylinders this time of the year.  Check out our QB rankings below and check back as we roll out the other skill positions.

Player Composite Rank Ginger King Roid Rage
Aaron Rodgers (GBP) 1 1 1
Drew Brees (NOS) 2 2 2
Tom Brady (NEP) 3 3 6
Colin Kaepernick (SFO) 4 5 5
Peyton Manning (DEN) 5 4 7
Matt Ryan (ATL) 6 7 4
Cam Newton (CAR) 7 9 3

 Cam Newton intro

 

Eli Manning (NYG) 8 8 10
Matthew Stafford (DET) 9 6 12
Tony Romo (DAL) 10 10 9
Robert Griffin III (WAS) 11 12 8
Andrew Luck (IND) 12 11 13
Russell Wilson (SEA) 13 15 11
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) 14 13 15
Jay Cutler (CHI) 15 16 14
Joe Flacco (BAL) 16 14 18
Sam Bradford (STL) 17 18 16
Matt Schaub (HOU) 18 20 19
Ryan Tannehill (MIA) 19 17
Andy Dalton (CIN) 20 17
Philip Rivers (SDC) 21 19
Alex Smith (KCC) 22 20

BRSM

Mock Draft (v5.0) – Brian’s Final

NFL Draft

Lock and load………..

1

Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel OL Texas A&M
Analysis:  The Chiefs have been locked into this pick for some time now as evident with the release of starting RT Eric Winston and the impending trade of LT Brandon Albert.

2

Jacksonville Jaguars: Dion Jordan OLB Oregon
Analysis:  The Jaguar’s and Raider’s both have wily football guys calling the shots these days and they’ve put their best foot forward in creating a trade-up market for Eric Fisher.  Not going to happen at #2.  The Jags grab perhaps the most versatile defender in this draft.

3

Oakland Raiders Eric Fisher OT C. Michigan
Analysis:  I think McKenzie gets the Lions to trade-up two spots (similar to Minnesota/Cleveland with Trent Richardson last year) to secure the rights to Fisher.

4

Philadelphia Eagles Barkevious Mingo DE LSU
Analysis:  First of all, Chip Kelly is calling the shots here.  And Chip is so confident…cough, arrogant, cough…that his offensive system is superior to anything the NFL has ever seen that his only concern is building a shutdown defense.  They go defensive heavy in this draft; here they grab an explosive edge defender.

5

Detroit Lions Star Lotulelei DT Utah
Analysis:  Again, this would be the Raiders selection.  They need help just about every where.  But they start with a Haloti Ngata type of player.

6

Cleveland Browns Geno Smith QB WVU
Analysis:  Lombardi is a firm believer in positional value and no position on the football field has more value than the QB.  I have to believe Rob Chudzinski sees a little bit of Cam Newton in Smith’s game.

7

Arizona Cardinals Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma
Analysis:  Biggest need for the Cardinals.  Although only starting 11 games at LT, Johnson is ridiculously athletic and offers emmense upside.

8

Buffalo Bills Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse
Analysis:  I’m totally buying the Syracuse connection here.  New regimes equal new QBs.  Marrone knows Nassib better than any talent evaluator in the NFL.

9

NY Jets Ezekiel Ansah DE BYU
Analysis:  This kid had gobs of potential.  Rex gets his passer rusher.

10

Tennessee Titans Dee Milliner CB Alabama
Analysis:  Hard to come up with a scenario where Milliner slips out of the Top 10; this is his floor.  I think Miami (after completing a trade for Albert) moves up to this spot.

11

San Diego Chargers Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri
Analysis:  I think a team trades up at this spot for Richardson’s services.

12

Miami Dolphins Sharrif Floyd DT Florida
Analysis:  The DT’s in this class are impressive.  I think there are teams in love with all three of these guys (Star, Richardson, Floyd).

13

New York Jets Kenny Vaccaro S Texas
Analysis: With Vaccaro, Jones, Austin and Eifert still on the board I do not think the Jets will have a hard time finding a trade partner. 

14

Carolina Panthers Tavon Austin WR WVU
Analysis: I think the Panthers could be one of the teams to move up a few spots to grab Richardson/Floyd.  So this could easily be Miami’s or San Diego’s pick.  Regardless, all three teams could be in play for Austin.

15

New Orleans Saints Jarvis Jones LB Georgia
Analysis:  This kid is a gamer, critics be damned!

16

St. Louis Rams Arthur Brown LB Kansas State
Analysis:  Undersized perhaps, but I think this is the future of NFL LB’s.  This kid will be an impact player.

17

Pittsburgh Steelers Tyler Eifert TE ND
Analysis:  Would not be surprised if he went top 10.  Dual TE sets (with athletic TEs) are so hard to defend (See: New England).

18

Dallas Cowboys Chance Warmack OG Alabama
Analysis:  Jerry lands a “big name” and a need position.  More importantly they are getting a heck of a football player.  OG’s just don’t carry the positional value to justify a top 15 pick. 

19

NY Giants Tank Carradine DE Florida State
Analysis:  I can really see Tank in a 49ers or Falcons jersey.  The Giants won’t pass on his talents.

20

Chicago Bears Bjoren Werner DE Florida State
Analysis:  Perfect fit.

21

Cincinnati Bengals Jonathan Cyprien S FIU
Analysis:  As talented as Vaccaro in my opinion.

22

St. Louis Rams DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson
Analysis:  St. Louis hasn’t been shy about showing their interest in Hopkins.

23

Minnesota Vikings Johnathan Cooper OG UNC
Analysis:  A terrific player, but again, OG’s just don’t warrant high picks.

24

Indianapolis Colts DJ Fluker OT Alabama
Analysis: The Colts absolutely have to protect Luck.  While I don’t think they can plug Fluker in as a LT (and the just signed RT Cherilus to big time money) I think Fluker could be a dominate guard.

25

Minnesota Vikings Xavier Rhodes CB Florida State
Analysis:  Helps improve a weak secondary.

26

Green Bay Packers Datone Jones DE UCLA
Analysis:   Great value pick and somebody who can contribute right away on defense.

27

Houston Texans DJ Hayden CB HOU
Analysis:  A local kid, but don’t let that fool you, he is an extremely talented CB.  Rumor has it he may give Milliner a run for his money.

28

Denver Broncos Jamar Taylor CB Boise St.
Analysis:  A physical corner to pair with Bailey.

29

New England Patriots Sly Williams DT NC
Analysis:  He could be a force on their D-line.  Would be surprised to see NE draft here.  Trading down is the most likely scenario.

30

Atlanta Falcons Matt Barkley QB USC
Analysis:  A team will jump back in to grab the guy they like.  Could be Manual, but I think Barkley is too good of a prospect to pass up.  Most likely to trade up: Jags, Jets, Oakland.

31

San Francisco 49ers Justin Hunter WR Tennessee
Analysis:  Niners could use a solid #2 WR.  Keenan Allen will be in the mix too, but testing positive for weed at the Combine shows a complete lack of judgment and responsibility (dude, toke up after the Combine).  This likely drops him to the second round.

32

Baltimore Ravens Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee
Analysis:  Too much talent to pass up here.  Needs to be coached up quite a bit, but the potential is there (reminds me of Stephen Hill, who was the sixth WR taken last year at #43)   

2013 NFL Draft – By the Numbers

As we inch closer to the draft (are we there yet?!) The Machine is busy tracking, among other things, two phenomena that tend to occur this time of the year: (1) the massive amount of misinformation being reported (generated first and foremost by NFL front offices) and (2) the overabundance of mock drafts.  Draftniks alike can’t seem to help themselves this time of the year, posting new and updated mocks daily.  You all have a problem.  And we love you for it!

There seems to be two schools of thought when it comes to mocking the draft.  The traditionalists prefer the straight-up mock draft.  No trading.  Each team gets their turn and that’s it.  The rationale being that mocking the draft is hard enough, mixing in the variable of trades makes the task damn near impossible.  The second group, the younger generation if you will, theorize trade scenarios based on projected player availability, team needs and team philosophy.

Realistically, the truth lies somewhere in-between.  Wheeling and dealing will always be part of the draft, and if last years dizzying pace was an indication (14 slots swapped in the first round alone) this year will feature some thrilling blockbusters (we’re looking at you Revis/Tampa Bay….or perhaps a dark horse team?!)

However, I’ve got a real issue with some of the trades being mocked.  For example, draftniks seem all too comfortable with the Bills drafting a WR/DL/CB with the No. 8 overall pick, justifying that the team can take a QB at No.  41, or even trade back into the bottom of the first round and grab their QB.  They fail to consider that the Bills only have six total picks; not exactly a cache of ammunition.  Given their (lack of) talent, they can ill afford to give up the picks necessary to jump from No. 41 into the low 20’s.  On the contrary, I’d expect the Bills to be actively shopping both the No. 8 and No. 41 pick in an effort to acquire more picks.

This lead The Machine to take a closer look at each teams draft pick status heading into the draft to identify which teams might be looking, and more importantly have the resources to move up in the draft.  Here is the breakdown, with some interesting observations to follow:

2013 NFL Draft by the Numbers     
Team              Total Picks                    Top 100 Picks
San Francisco

13

5

Baltimore

12

3

Miami

11

5

Minnesota

11

4

Atlanta

11

3

Cincinnati

10

4

Seattle

10

2

Houston

9

4

Tennessee

9

4

Philadelphia

9

3

Kansas City

8

4

St. Louis

8

4

Detroit

8

3

Green Bay

8

3

New York

8

3

Pittsburgh

8

3

Tampa Bay

8

3

Jacksonville

7

4

Arizona

7

3

New York (J)

7

3

Oakland

7

3

San Diego

7

3

Cleveland

7

2

Washington

7

2

Buffalo

6

3

Dallas

6

3

Denver

6

3

Indianapolis

6

2

New England

5

3

Carolina

5

2

Chicago

5

2

New Orleans

5

2

 

Totals: 254

100

     
  •  Last years Super Bowl teams, San Francisco and Baltimore, account for 25 total picks, or approximately 10% of the picks in this years draft.
  • 7 out of the top 8 teams (in terms of draft picks) made the playoffs last year.  Miami being the lone exception.  Conversely, only 3 out of the bottom 8 teams made the playoffs.  This is not a coincidence.  Good team/roster management includes keeping and acquiring draft picks.
  • Speaking of Miami, if this offseason has shown us anything it’s that Jeff Ireland is GM-ing for his job.  We’d expect that trend to continue throughout the draft with Miami combining picks to move up the draft board.  This is a dangerous way to build a team.  We like the odds that Ireland is unemployed this time next year.
  • SF and Seattle have been in a bot of an arms race in terms of collecting talent.  The NFC West crown is up for grabs.  Both teams have plenty of ammunition to trade up to get “their” guy.  I expect SF to be particularly aggressive (DL/CB/WR).
  • Atlanta is 1 of 7 teams with double-digit picks.  Dimitroff has shown a penchant for being aggressive on draft day (Julio Jones).  Atlanta is a candidate to move up in the top ten.
  • I think Oakland, Carolina, Buffalo and Indianapolis will actively look to trade down when possible.  Although, I think Bills and the Colts will target a QB and OL, respectively, in the first round.
  • New Orleans is interesting in that they are tied with for the fewest picks (5) but also must feel they are close to competing for the division title (3 years removed from SB and getting Sean Payton back).  However, BountyGate has really taken its toll on this roster (particularly) the defense.  The Saints would be wise to trade down early and often this year.
  • It will be interesting to see if Jerry Jones can stay put this year, as he only has 6 picks to work with.

Mock Draft (v4.0) – One Week Warning!

NFL DraftThat’s right, we’re one week from the Main Event!  The Machine is in full mock mode; Roid Rage gets Version 4 kicked off with picks 1-16 and Ginger King rounds out the bottom half: (Leave your comments below).

1

Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel OL Texas A&M
Analysis:  It looks like the Chiefs have moved on from their starting tackles from a year ago, cutting Eric Winston and broadcasting Brandon Albert’s availability (mid-to-low round pick).  So this pick will either be Joeckle or Fisher.  The Machine prefers Fishers upside and nasty demeanor in the trenches.  Joeckle’s no slouch though; he’s the prototypical NFL LT.

2

Jacksonville Jaguars: Dion Jordan OLB Oregon
Analysis:  “Jags are a mess, and need help at every position”.  I couldn’t have said it better myself.  They’d love the opportunity to trade down, but nobody is going to be willing to pay the premium.  Caldwell, Bradley and Khan (the Jaguar brain trust) are all onboard with this selection.

3

Oakland Raiders Star Lotulelei DT Utah
Analysis:  You’ve got to hand it to McKenzie, he isn’t afraid to stick to his guns!  He is yet to find a player he hasn’t wanted to cut (Routt, Seymour, Huff, Kelly, DHB, McClain).  The Raiders have needs at literally every position.  McKenzie grabs the BPA.

4

Philadelphia Eagles Shariff Floyd DT Florida
Analysis:  First of all, Chip Kelly is calling the shots here.  And Chip is so confident…cough, arrogant, cough…that his offensive system is superior to anything the NFL has ever seen that his only concern is building a shutdown defense.  They go defensive heavy in this draft, starting with the Philly kid, Floyd.  Milliner is in the mix here too.

5

Detroit Lions Eric Fisher OL C. Michigan
Analysis:  This seems like a dream scenario for Detroit with the loss of tackles Cherilus (free agency) and Backus (retirement).  However, I think there is a coin flips chance that E. Ansah is the pick here.  They also lost defensive ends Vanden Bosch and Avril this offseason.  What a mess.  In related news, Jim Schwartz will probably be looking for a new job come December.

6

Cleveland Browns Lane Johnson OL Oklahoma
Analysis:  Do I think the Browns draft an offensive linemen with their first pick? No.  But this is the ideal spot for the Dolphins to trade up and snatch Johnson before he falls to the Cardinals.  Johnson is viewed by some as 1C to Joeckle/Fisher this year.  If the Browns don’t trade down, this pick is E. Ansah or B. Mingo all day long (with Geno Smith as a dark horse).  Many people, myself included, think the Browns are putting up a smoke screen (from burning all those Pilot J documents) with these reports that Milliner is their No. 1 priority.  They draft DE/OLB if they stay put.

7

Arizona Cardinals Barkevious Mingo DE LSU
Analysis:  Cards need pressure from the end.  Problem solved (plus best name in the Draft).

8

Buffalo Bills Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse
Analysis:  I’m totally buying the Syracuse connection here.  So much so that the Bills prefer Nassib to Smith and stay true to their board.  They’ll get crucified in the mainstream media in this scenario.  However, a fair amount of talent evaluators (Lande, Cosell, Gruden) have Nassib rated as their No. 1 QB this year.

9

NY Jets Geno Smith QB West Virginia
Analysis:  This should allow the team to abort their collection of dumbster fires- Sanchez, Garrard, Tebow, McElroy, Simms- at QB.  More importantly, Rex will be able to use the “Rookie QB” excuse to buy himself a few more years.

10

Tennessee Titans Dee Milliner CB Alabama
Analysis:  Hard to come up with a scenario where Milliner slips out of the Top 10; this is his floor.

11

San Diego Chargers Tavon Austin WR West Virginia
Analysis:  Sure, the Chargers need offensive linemen in the worst way, but guards and tackles can’t score touchdowns on any given play, from the outside, slot, out of the backfield, returning kicks/punts, etc.  Austin is electric with the ball in his hands.  For his sake (and ours as fans) let’s hope he can hold up through a 16 game schedule.

12

Miami Dolphins Ezekiel Ansah DE BYU
Analysis:  I think the Dolphins jump into the top 8 to grab a OT (from the Browns at 6 in this scenario).  Since I think Ansah could go six to the Browns in the first place, getting him here is an absolute steal and makes the risk a bit more tolerable.

13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Desmond Trufant CB Washington
Analysis: I absolutely feel a CB will get drafted out of the 13 spot.  Whether it’s the Bucs or Jets remains to be seen.

14

Carolina Panthers Kenny Vaccaro S Texas
Analysis: The Panther have neglected the DT spot for years.  Why would this year be any different?  They grab the BPA in the ultra versatile Vaccaro.  His tape vs. Tavon Austin speaks volumes to his abilities.

15

New Orleans Saints Datone Jones DE UCLA
Analysis:  One of my personal favorites in this draft.  Really feel like the Saints move down considering their lack of picks and talent.  Defense is a must, Jones becomes one of their best defensive players.

16

St. Louis Rams Chance Warmack OG ALA
Analysis:  Pains me to see Warmack slip this far; such is the life of OG’s in the NFL (see: David DeCastro last year….#24).  Helps solidify an improving Rams OL.

17

Pittsburgh Steelers Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia
Analysis:  Pittsburgh stays true to its board (and team philosophy) and addresses defense first.  With Harrison gone, this is looking more and more likely.  WR is an option, but (a) the Steelers don’t draftin WRs in the first round and (b) keeping Emmanual Sanders makes this less of a need.

18

Dallas Cowboys Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri
Analysis:  Cowboys will either go OL or DL here.  Jonathon Cooper’s an option, but Richardson provides way too much value here. 

19

NY Giants Bjoern Werner DT Florida State
Analysis:  A Top 5 pick two months ago, Bjoern has slipped down the draft.  He did not help his cause at the Combine, which has likely contributed to his slide.  However, the tape on him is impressive.  Raw, athletic, albeit a little inexperienced.  None of that is a problem for the G-Men, who love taking those ingredients and creating a dominant DE (see:  JPP).

20

Chicago Bears Manti Te’o ILB Notre Dame
Analysis:  Ok we’re buying this (for now).  For all the things wrong with Manti (fake dead girlfriend, horribly exposed during Nat’l Championship game, 4.82 40 which has since dropped into the 4.7s at his pro day) there’s one thing going for him:  he’s a natural born leader.  Alec Ogletree may be the more athletic choice, but Manti fits the role to replace Brian Urlacher.  Even though Lennay HATES cold weather, he makes sense here.

21

Cincinnati Bengals DJ Fluker OL Alabama
Analysis:  The only question is whether DJ will last this long.

22

St. Louis Rams Jonathon Cooper OG North Carolina
Analysis:  Another offensive lineman?  How does that make sense?  Check out the Niners in 2010 (Anthony Davis at 11 and Mike Iupati at 17)  With Warmack, Cooper, and Jake Long, the Rams would arguably have the best line in the league.

23

Minnesota Vikings Alec Ogletree ILB Georgia
Analysis:  Vikes would love it if Alec made it to them here.

24

Indianapolis Colts Tank Carradine DE Florida St.
Analysis: The Colts need to get young on the outside.  Freeney is gone and Robert Mathis is on the wrong side of 30.

25

Minnesota Vikings Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee
Analysis:  Even with Jennings, the Vikes need more weapons for Ponder.

26

Green Bay Packers DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson
Analysis:   Now begins the run on WRs.  They re-signed Clay Mathews which means the focus should be on improving the offense.  Hopkins will soften the blow from losing Jennings.

27

Houston Texans Robert Woods WR USC
Analysis:  A pefect complement to Andre Johnson.  Woods has risen up draft boards and looks certain to go in the late first round.  Doesn’t have jaw dropping speed but catches everything his way and, having played in a pro-style offense at USC, is the most NFL-ready WR in the draft.

28

Denver Broncos Jamar Taylor CB Boise St.
Analysis:  Anyone see that playoff game, particularly the final 33 seconds of the fourth quarter?  Any questions?  Taylor has speed (4.32) and strength (22 reps) and hopefully enough knowledge to know that you don’t let the receiver get behind you for a game tying 70 yard touchdown pass with 30 seconds to go.

29

New England Patriots Margus Hunt DE SMU
Analysis:  Patriots love versatile defenders that can play with a hand down at the line or standing up to drop back.  With either of these last four picks (from NE to Balt) we expect some team in the early second to trade up to grab a qb. 

30

Atlanta Falcons Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame
Analysis:  Who better to learn from than Gonzo?

31

San Francisco 49ers Justin Hunter WR Tennessee
Analysis:  Niners could use a solid #2 WR.  Keenan Allen will be in the mix too, but testing positive for weed at the Combine shows a complete lack of judgment and responsibility (dude, toke up after the Combine).  This likely drops him to the second round.

32

Baltimore Ravens Eric Reid S LSU
Analysis:  For defending Super Bowl Champions, the Ravens have a surprising number of holes to fill.  That will happen when your entire team takes their rings and runs.  Reid will help add some stability in the secondary.