Hey, what do ya know, an AFC Playoff game that actually looks good on paper!  The Steelers high-power offense travels to Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City’s Chiefs dynamic defense.  What could possible go wrong?  Oh, maybe just a giant fucking Midwestern ice storm!  I’ve been to Kansas, it’s a terrifying place on the best of days.

You say “Ice Storm”, we say “Good Football weather”

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City (-1.5), Sunday, 8:20 pm

The Steelers walked all over the Dolphins last week.  Bell, Ben, Brown, they all got theirs.  To that point (rant alert!) how the hell do guys like Anthony Lynn and Sean McVay score head coaching gigs and Todd Haley can’t even get an interview.  Sure, he’s got a great quarterback and weapons to work with, but that’s not held against Josh McDaniel’s, whom is everyone’s favorite “hot” coordinator.  Haley does a great job of involving and maximizing the players’ talents on the roster, not to mention he has head coaching experience.   He must be a giant dickhole.

Anyways, the Steelers avenged their Week 6 loss to the Dolphins.  As we mentioned last week, that game was the turning point of the Steelers offense.  Similarly, the Chiefs turned their season around after their Week 4 dismantling in Pittsburgh.  In that game, which KC lost 43-14, Ben Roethlisberger tossed 5 TDs before the Chiefs found pay dirt.  Since that game, the Chiefs went 10-2.

The Chiefs remind me quite a bit of the Broncos from a season ago.  Aggressive defense that pressures the quarterback and takes the ball away (first in the league in interceptions).  Their offense, led by the perpetually underrated  Alex Smith, has been well-balanced.  Travis Kelce is a match-up nightmare over the middle and down the seam.  The Chiefs find creative ways to the get the ball to Tyreek Hill, who is as explosive and creative in the open-field as he is on Twitter! Hill has also made a significant impact on the return game.

KCs dynamic duo

Big Ben tweaked his ankle late in the game against the Dolphins.  Like, really late when the game was out of hand.  I like Tomlin and all, but when are these coaches going to use their damn brains?  Protect your assets!

Speaking of assets!

Offensively, the Steelers average almost a full touchdown less on the road this season; while KC allowed less than 16 points on average at home.  KC’s defense is more than capacble of hanging with Ben & Co.

This game is going to be close and probably come down to the final few drives.  I give a slight edge to Kansas City due to their defense, the extra week of rest and special teams.  Either way, one of these teams will be on to Foxborough!

Kansas City 18, Pittsburgh 13

The playoff games are going to get more exciting, competitive and fun to watch; I promise.  After Wildcard Weekend kicked off with a thud….the Machine did go 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS)….the Divisional Round has much more enticing matchups…..the exception being this dud:

Houston @ New England (-16), Saturday, 8:15 pm

Is it me, or does it feel like New England has finished the last 15 seasons with a 13-3 record (or better), with a first round bye, with home field throughout and inevitably end up hosting the AFC Championship.  I’m not even going to bother looking up how close I am, and not because I’m lazy (well, sort of because I’m lazy), but mostly because I know I’m close.

So instead of doing an analysis of both teams, and how they match-up, and who will defend whom and yadda yadda yadda, I just want to focus on one thing: -16.

Can this Patriots team really cover 16 points?!  Can the Texas keep it within two freaking touchdowns?!

I’m taking the points, because it is too many.  The Patriots will win, make no mistake.  But even if they win 27-12, it’s not enough to cover.

Look, we all know the storylines, right?  The 9-7 Texans basically slept walked through their game against the reeling Raiders, who were down to their third string rookie quarterback making his first ever start.  Not exactly a confidence booster.  Speaking of third string quarterbacks, it was the Jacoby Brissett (remember him, yeah, me neither) lead Patriots that shutout the Texans earlier this year in Foxborough.  The betting public hasn’t forgotten that game, and has wagered a considerable amount of bank on the Pats this week.  Nearly 85% of the money has come in on NE -16.  So, if the Patriots do win big and cover the spread, Vegas will take a beating.  It’ll be a bloodbath.  Guess what, the only thing more bankable than the Patriots in Foxborough in January is Vegas winning money all the time.

This is getting old

I’m picturing a cold, frozen field.  The Patriots win the coin toss and Hoodie defers, because he always freaking defers.  Osweiler looks lost and the Texans go 3-and-out.  The Patriots start with excellent field positions, because they always have excellent freaking field position.  They dink and dunk, complete their first 7 passes, flawlessly execute a hurry-up quarterback sneak on 3-and-1 picking up 3 yards and eventually score a touchdown because they always freaking…..okay, you get the drift.  But after they build their two TD lead they start hammering away with Lego Blount.  They are effective at running the ball, which shortens the game (and makes a significant blowout less likely).  Now, all we need is one or two scoring drives from Brock.  I know, it’s a tall task, but not unreasonable.  Maybe the Texans defense didn’t forget their embarrassing Week 3 performance and manage to get some pressure on Brady.  Maybe they score a special teams touchdown.  There are plenty of ways they can be down by 20 points and come up with a backdoor cover (hey-oh).

So there it is.  Any given Sunday (or Saturday Night).

New England 31, Houston 17

Another AFC playoff game, another team starting a backup quarterback.  Woof.  Ginger King was right; can we just skip to the part where the Patriots win the AFC?  And how long after Belichick retires until they change the name of the Lamar Hunt trophy?

Miami @ Pittsburgh (-11), Sunday, 1:05 pm

This game is a rematch of Week 6, were the 7 point home underdog Miami Dolphins upset the Pittsburgh Steelers, 30-15.  That game was the turning point of the Dolphins season.  Entering the game with a 1-4 record, the Dolphins won 9 of the next 11 to secure a playoff berth.

Of course, there are quite a few differences between then and now.  For starters, it’ll be about 70 degrees colder.  The Dolphins can downplay the weather all they want, but they are kidding themselves if they think it won’t affect them.  Of far bigger concern is the Week 15 MCL injury that has sidelined starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill.  Tannehill doesn’t exactly scare defenses, but he was quietly putting together a solid season (3,000 yards, 19 TDs) under the tutelage of quarterback-whisperer Adam Gase.  Next man up is journeyman Matt Moore.  Best descripted as a “gamer”; meaning he isn’t shy to throw it around…whether it’s his guys or the other team catching it is another story.

Where’s the clipboard?

The Steelers are going to be looking for redemption from the Week 6 matchup as it was their worst offensive game of the season.  Ben Roethlisberger got knocked out of that game early and missed an offensive series before returning, but was never quite right.  As a result, the entire offense was in a funk and never could snap out.  These are highly uncharacteristic stat lines:

Week 6

Roethlisberger :  19/34, 189 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Bell: 10 attempts, 53 yards, 0 TD

Brown:  4 catches, 39 yards, 0 TD

The Steelers have been red-hot, winners of their last seven games.  They are 6-2 at Heinz Field and average nearly a touchdown more at home as opposed to the road.  They will move the ball on the Dolphins and score points.  The Dolphins won’t be able to shutdown Ben, Bell and Brown this time around.

Defensively the Steelers should sellout to stop the run and force Matt Moore to beat them.  Jay Ajaji gashed them for over 200 yards.  Ajaji has a bit of Beastmode in him and seems to get stronger as the game wears on.

The house that Ketchup built

I don’t think the Dolphins can keep pace with the Steelers at Heinz Field.  I’ve got the Steelers cruising to victory, putting them in Arrowhead next week.

Final Score: Pittsburgh 34, Miami 17

It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish!  Welcome to the 2017 NFL Playoffs.  The kickoff game isn’t exactly get-your-popcorn-ready material.  This unwatchable match-up (which probably pulls twice the rating of the Cubs/Indians World Series Game 7) features the team that drafted Khalil Mack (Oakland Raiders) and the team that should have drafted Khalil Mack (Houston Texans).  Vegas agrees,, this game has the lowest total (37) of the weekend….but hey, it does have the smallest spread (HOU -3.5), so maybe it’ll be close?!

STAR POWER

A lot of people thought the Texans were crazy when they signed Brock Osweiler to an $72 million dollar contract in the offseason…..and those people were right.  Through 15 games, “B.O.” completed under 60% of his passes, threw more picks (12) than touchdowns (11) , took 27 sacks and fumbled a handful of times.  In other words, good enough to win the AFC South!

Not surprisingly, the Texans skill players collectively turned in a down year.  Lamar Miller barely cracked a 1,000 yards; a threshold DeAndre Hopkins couldn’t even reach.  Safe to say Nuk wasn’t on many fantasy championship rosters this year.

LOL

Despite losing their best player before the season began, defense is the name of the game in Houston.  JJ Watt was too busy creating his own logo and filming Bose commercials to train in the offseason and promptly blew out his back, missing the entire season.  Ironically, if you look at his logo upside down you can kind of see an inflated ego. #hiddenmessage.  That has left the 2014 No. 1 overall pick, Jadeveon Clowney as the face of the defense.  For his career, The Clown has amassed 72 tackles, 10.5 sacks and 1 forced fumble….or what we like to call a “down year” for All-World Khalil Mack (University at Buffalo shout out).

The Texans defense ranks first in yards allowed.   Or is it last in yards allowed??  Either way, teams had trouble moving the ball for positive gains against the Texans.  I guess they can hang their oversized cowboy hats on that…..oh and the fact that they don’t have to face….

Might want to mix in a few squats to the workout routine, just saying.

Derek Carr was in the MVP discussions before he broke his leg in half on Christmas Eve.  Not to be outdone, backup Matt “The other Red Rifle” McGloin broke his McShoulder the following week.  To top it all off, starting Left Tackle Donald Penn has been ruled out with a knee injury.  When the Raiders move to Vegas any chance they change their logo to a black cat breaking a mirror with an upside down horseshoe under a ladder?

Soulless embrace. #14

Truthfully, the McGloin injury is a blessing in disguise considering he’s 1-7 as a starter.  That’s bad, right?  The Raiders at least get to trot out the “element of surprise” in 4^th round rookie Connor Cook.  The Texans are literally going to have to breakdown his college tape to game plan for him.  Have fun with that.

The 3.5 point spread makes a ton of sense.  The Raiders are going to protect Cook as much as possible (translation: run the ball) knowing that the Houston offense isn’t exactly going to blow the doors off the hinges.  Turnover machine Osweiler will see to that.  This game feels like it is going to come down to a fluky special teams play or a missed extra point.

Since I’m practically the president of the Khalil Mack fan club (is it that obvious?), my pick here may be slightly biased, but I’ll take the RAIDERS +3.5.

Final Score: Houston 24, Oakland 22