New England (13-4) @ Denver (13-4), Sunday 3:05 PM

 Line: Den +3.0 O/U 44.5

Here we go. The best the AFC has to offer! Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning…..for the seventeenth freaking time! I like to call it Branning Bowl XVII.

I won’t bore you with recaps or stats or highlights or lowlights of the previous sixteen times they’ve played each other; the (translation: lame) sports media outlets have you covered for that junk. Hell, there’s even a Manning v. Brady Rivalry Wikipedia page.

Despite our affinity for 80’s power rock, Chevy Camaros and Baywatch, we here at The Machine are living in the here and now. I mean, just this week I had Ginger King dapping all over some *not under aged* chicks. When it comes to winning football games (and winning money on football games) it’s a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately-business. And in that regard, New England has a huge edge: their quarterback doesn’t suck.

If you think the Patriots are going to steamroll the Broncos, then congratulations, you get it. I won’t waste your time, you can just move along to Ginger’s NFC Championship write-up. But if the Peyton Manning apologists have you second guessing that gut feeling you have…if only the receivers didn’t drop so many passes (seriously, the number of drops has steadily climbed all week- we’re at like double digits now)…then please, continue reading, or take some pepto bismol.

“The Broncos formula for winning is simple: play great defense (1^st in total defense, allowing only 283 yards/game), run the ball (CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman have had mild success), and don’t let the quarterback lose the game for you.” That’s me quoting me! And guess what, the Broncos beat the Steelers because their defense came up with a timely turnover and their field goal kicker is money from 60 yards out. Manning was 21/37 for 222 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, with a 74.4 passer rating. That’s a textbook game-manager stat line right there. That passer rating is 10^th out of 12 qualified postseason quarterbacks. Oh, that sample size too small for ya? Okay, let’s take a gander at the passer ratings rankings for the regular season (hint: look near the bottom):

Yeeeeah, that’s Nick Foles/Ryan Mallet territory we’re talking about. Now don’t misinterpret anything I’m saying: I’d love for Peyton to put one over on the Patriots, win the Super bowl and ride off into the sunset. The problem is that sun set a year and a half ago.

It’s not all doom and gloom for the home team. They do boast the league’s best defense. They are built to cover on the back-end while their edge rushers, led by Von Miller, produce tremendous pressure on the opposing offensive line and quarterback. And if the Patriots have an Achilles heel, I believe it is their offensive line.

The sweater started to unravel a bit the last time the Patriots played at Mile High when the Broncos handed the then undefeated Patriots their first loss of the season. The Patriots lost 4 of their last 6 games, limped their way to a first round bye before handling the Chiefs at home last week. Their losses all came against teams that have strong defensive lines (Broncos, Eagles, Jets, Dolphins) able to generate pressure without committing blitzers.

So that’s what the Patriots don’t do well. In every other facet of the game they excel, including cheating! They are such good cheats! (We’ll never let it die, never).

The Patriots use Edelman and Gronk to create match-up problems. They simply dink and dunk with short passes to Edelman, Amendola and [insert name] running back, until they get to the redzone where they kill you with Gronkowski over the middle. Their efficiency and effectiveness is second to none. If they get into a rhythm, and if the Broncos can’t get Tom Terrific on his ass, this offensive is capable of dropping a 40-spot on any defense.

I love the Manning/Brady angle (soak it in, this will be the last). I love the trash talking about Brady being a bitch. I think the home crowd and Denver’s defense can keep this game close. Hell, the Chiefs and Alex Smith gave the Patriots fits, so the Broncos have a chance. But at the end of the day I trust Tom Brady and Bill Belichick more than Peyton Manning at this stage of his career. I mean, Manning was hard to trust in these spots (cold-weather, primetime matchup) in his prime, let alone now with his noodle neck.

I’ll take the Patriots to win decisively.

Prediction: New England 27, Denver 16

We’re on to Santa Clara!

 

 

 

 

Kansas City (11-5) @ Houston (9-7), Saturday 4:35 PM

Line: Hou +3.0 O/U 40.0

Alex Smith v. Brian Hoyer. If you have to miss one game this weekend, this is it. Side note: if you have to miss one game this weekend than you aren’t doing it right. This is the playoffs man! Sure, we don’t exactly have Aikman against Young, and Vegas isn’t projecting fireworks as evident with the low total of 40 points, but that’s not going to stop The Machine from kicking off Wildcard Weekend tailgate-style: grill, cooler and fire pit!!

This is a rematch from Week 1, where the Chiefs beat the Texans 27-20, and it wasn’t that close. You know, the game that Brian Hoyer started after winning the training camp battle only to get benched half way through in favor of Ryan Mallett. The same Ryan Mallett whom the Texans later released when they realized he was Ryan Mallett. What a difference 16 weeks can make.

Andy Reid should get consideration for coach of the year. After starting the season 1-5 and losing their franchise offensive cornerstone in Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs rattled off ten consecutive wins. Yes, they feasted on bottom-feeders, beating Oakland (twice), San Diego (twice), Baltimore, and Cleveland, but a 10-win streak is impressive in Madden, let alone the NFL. So, despite the fact that KC is the better team (slightly), why isn’t that streak going to make it to 11? Because the NFL is a game of match-ups, and the Texans are a difficult match-up for the Chiefs on both sides of the ball. Defensively, the Texans will be able to take away either Jeremy Maclin or Travis Kelce (or both) while keeping the Chiefs behind sticks in down-and-distance. That’s where JJ Watt will go to work and leave his mark on this game. I’m expecting one of those dominate performances from the All-Pro.

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs had no answers for DeAndre Hopkins, who destroyed their secondary to the tune of 9/98/2. Hopkins pretty much feasted on every secondary this year, despite average (that’s being generous) quarterback play. Without an elite shutdown corner, look for Hopkins to post gaudy reception and yardage numbers.

As a final note, there was a bit of bad blood between these two teams in their Week 1 showdown. On the first play from scrimmage, Travis Kelce went to the knees of JJ Watt. Watt took exception to the play, and I’m sure didn’t forget about it. So while we might not be in store for fireworks on the scoreboard, the game might be extra chippy on the field.

I like the Texans as a home dog to win this game outright.

Prediction: Houston 23, Kansas City 19

 

Pittsburgh (10-6) @ Cincinnati (12-4), Saturday 8:15 PM

Line: Cin +3.0 O/U 45.5

The poor Bungals just can’t get it right. Heading into the playoffs last year Andy Dalton was healthy while all of his offensive skill players were hurt. This year everyone is healthy except the Ginger Warlock! That leaves Cincinnati entrusting AJ McCarron to become the first quarterback since Boomer Esiason (whom is 54 years old mind you) to win a playoff game. Ouch.

For whatever the first game lacks in big plays, this one should pick up the slack. Antonio Brown is the best receiver in the game and AJ Green isn’t too far behind. The Steelers create and exploit mismatches with Martavis Bryant and Marcus Wheaton.   The Bengals counter with Giovani Bernard out of the backfield and Tyler Eifert in the red zone. Both offenses will find success moving the ball in this one.

Pittsburgh hasn’t exactly instilled a ton of confidence lately; inexplicably dropping a Week 16 game to the Ravens, limping by the lifeless Browns last week while needing help from the Bills (you’re welcome) to sneak into the playoffs. However, that is all regular season fodder at this point. Big Ben’s experience in making deep playoff runs will be the difference in this one.

If the Steelers secondary can hold it together and not blow too many coverages (something they tend to do) then I like their chances of getting after McCarron and creating some turnovers. This will game will be close, with the Steelers pulling away at the end.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 31, Cincinnati 23