As if last weekends playoff games weren’t exciting enough (276 combined points, Peyton Manning going all Peyton Manning, “Gonk” busting his forearm, again [bro, don’t be scared to mix in a glass of milk every once in a while] and the incredible finish to the Seahawks-Falcons game) we had one of the most bizarre sporting “news” weeks in recent memory.
For most weeks, the LieStrong Story would be more than enough fodder to keep radio talking heads and Sportcenter happily busy. But this wasn’t exactly your “typical” week. Enter Manti Te’o and his dead girlfriend that didn’t exist. Or wait, maybe she faked her own death because she was alluding drug dealers? And how exactly did this Tuiasosopo character (are we even sure he exists? Seriously) apologize via twitter last week when his account was closed two weeks ago?! Blah. The Machine (while we are enjoying every twist and turn to this “real” life WWE story) are in some desperate need of ACTUAL, REAL football. How refreshing.
There are only 3 games left on the schedule (until our undivided attention goes into Draft-mode), and Championship Sunday promises to live up to its billing, as any of the four remaining teams could win it all. We’ve studied the tape, waded through the storylines, and dissected the stats to bring you todays winners. Let’s get into it:
San Francisco (-4.5) @ Atlanta
Do you know the last time a Number 1 seed, hosting the Conference Championship was a 4-point underdog?! You have to go back to the 1978 Dallas Cowboys, who were 4-point dogs and went on to beat the Rams (then of Los Angeles) 28-0….the ‘boys also won the Superbowl that year for what its worth. Is The Machine saying that the Falcons are going to win the Superbowl this year?! Ehhh, not so fast. We actually love the Niners in this one, but have to be very cautious with this line. The Falcons have struggled mightily against QBs running the spread option this year (yielding a whopping 700 combined yards to Cam Newton in two games this year and barely hanging on against Russ Wilson last week). Mike Nolan’s defense will play games pre-snap to try to confuse (and predetermine) Kaepernicks reads. However, handling his athleticism after the snap is a different story. Even if the falcons can limit Kaepernick on the ground, they have to contend with SF’s beastly offensive line (featuring 3 former first round draft picks) and their stable of running backs. Kaepernick also has just enough weapons in the passing game (Crabtree, Moss, Davis, Walker) to keep the defense honest. We just don’t think Atlanta’s defense matches up well against the Niners.
Atlanta’s strength is their offense, particularly their passing attack. They can stretch a defense vertically with Julio Jones, beat them on intermediate routes with Roddy White and kill them in the redzone with Tony Gonzalez. They usually get enough production from Michael Turner (on 1st and 2nd down) and JacQuizz Rodgers (on 3rd) to maintain a rushing attack. If the offense can protect Matt Ryan, Julio Jones could have a big day. He presents that matchup problems for SFs secondary. However, they will have their hands full with the Niners front seven.
The Falcons wore down against a Seahawks team that plays a similar style of football to the Niners. The Niners will impose their will late in the game and Kyle Williams won’t muff any punts (guaranteed! – hell, I like his chances of taking one to the house!).
The 49ers will be Kapernicking their way to New Orleans: SF 34 ATL 28
Baltimore @ New England (-8)
Rematch! We are looking forward to a very chippy encounter between these two teams that have some bad blood between them. Last year Joe Flacco outplayed Tom Brady outright. Flacco was orchestrating a game winning drive when he hit Lee Evans in the corner of the endzone…..only to have the ball dropped. If Evans makes that catch the Ravens probably lose the Super Bowl to the Giants last year. Regardless, the Ravens trotted out Billy Cundiff (pronounced ‘CUNT-iff’ in the greater Baltimore area) for a chip shot 32-yard field goal to send the game into overtime. Yeah, they missed that too. Their season ended in Foxboro on a bullshit dropped pass and an ugly field goal attempt. It should come as no surprise that Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff were cut in the offseason. The Ravens have pieced together another solid run this year, and find themselves travelling back to Foxboro, one win away from the Super Bowl, again.
Bill Belichick always seems to be one-step ahead of the rest of the league. While most teams roll out some no-huddle series and packages, the Patriots feature it. They have run more offense snaps than any other team this year and average the least amount time between snaps. Their no-huddle hurry-up offense is ridiculously effective in the redzone (defense winded near tail end of drives + hardest place on the field to substitute + hardest place on the field to communicate) and on short yardage situations. Tom Brady quick snaps on a QB keeper on 3rd-and-1 and 4th-and-1 more than any other QB in the league and he is more effective than 70% of the “short yardage” running backs. Their tempo is going to be very difficult on an aging Baltimore defense that hasn’t really been themselves this year. Look up their defensive numbers, it’s not pretty.
Ray-Ray will surely have his squad fired-up for this afternoons affair, but the it won’t matter, the Patriots will pass, run and score at will. However, Flacco and Rice will be able to do enough to keep them in this game.
NE 38, Baltimore 37
There you have it folks, The Machine is calling for a NE vs. SF Super Bowl!
Bonus predictions: Ray Lewis comes out of “retirement” around the third week of Training Camp, citing unfinished business.