A new week. A new mock. We’re under two weeks away from the show. A lot of changes to the big board, as teams are coming back from pro-day visits and starting their pre-war room negotiations. Let’s get right to the action, once again, using the NFL Mock Draft Database Simulator. Buckle up!
Again, no changes to 1-3. I’m a believer the Niners are going to draft Mac Jones. That’s the biggest gamble in the draft, especially after what San Fran gave up to move up to #3. I also think the Falcons are not going do draft a quarterback for a couple of reasons. One, they just restructured Matt Ryan’s contract last month…spreading out $21m in guaranteed money over the next 3 years. He’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Two, he’s still playing at a high level. He threw for over 4,500 yards and 26 tds last season, with a qb rating of 93.3. The Falcons would love to trade back, and target a cornerback or offensive lineman, but if not, there’s no harm in drafting Patrick Surtain II, the best corner in the draft. Elsewhere, Dan Campbell is looking to rip kneecaps off people. Micah Parsons is his guy.
Receivers and Edge rushers are going to dominate the middle half of the first round. Minnesota needs both, but they should have their pick of Edge rushers, and Kwity Paye edges out (pun intended) the rest. There would be some Belichick magic if Fields is around at 15, and I think it can happen. Fields is going to suffer (rightly or wrongly) from the stigma that OSU quarterbacks have not succeeded at the pro level. Not surprisingly, he’s gone on the offensive to explain how he’s different than his predecessors. His floor should be the Pats at 15, ironically the same spot Haskins was selected in 2019.
Rounding out the first round, I’m trying to explain to Bills Mafia that if Travis Etienne is on the board, he should be the pick. You heard it hear first: Travis Etienne is Dalvin Cook 2.0. However, the Bills need to get younger on the defensive side, as both Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison are on the wrong side of 30. Elsewhere, there are a few teams that I am locked into with their first round pick, and Kansas City is one of them. This pick has to be offensive line, particularly at tackle, as both starting tackle from last year (Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz) are gone.