2012 Top 10 Fantasy RBs

While The Machine may have been slow to recognize the housing bubble burst (anyone looking for a $900k, 700 square-foot condo in the greater San Francisco area?) we were all over the Running Back Bubble! While the other “experts” were ramming the RB-RB Theory down your throat, The Machine was collecting stud QBs, WRs, TEs, and – most importantly – Championships! Because of the pass happy, spread look, 2-RB offensive systems it is more critical than ever to hit homeruns with your tailbacks. Here’s the Top 10 heading into the 2012 season (Total Yards/Total TDs/Receptions)

1. Arian Foster (1841/10/53) – Consider The Machine part of the Arian Nation! What’s not to love? Strength between the tackles, burst to turn the corner, soft hands, nimble feet, just enough wiggle to make people miss and he tweets pictures of his injuries! That’s my definition of an all purpose back. That looming hamstring injury at the start of the regular season scared some people away. But the “gamblers” (The Machine faithful) undoubtedly rode this beast to the playoffs. Time to double-down and grab this stud early (like first overall) and watch the wins pile up.

2. LeSean McCoy (1624/20/48) – Andy Reid will never win a Super bowl, but man this guy has the Midas touch for producing uber-productive fantasy tailbacks; from Brian Westbrook to LeSean McCoy. Hell, even Duce Staley was relevant! While it will be hard for LaShady to top last years numbers (come on, 20 TDs!), he’ll make up for it with an increase in receptions and receiving yards. Philly’s offense is reminiscent of a Tecmo Bowl squad, with LaShady playing the roll of Bo Jackson. As a bonus their offensive line coach is back for another year as the defense coordinator. This team will have to score a lot of points to have a chance.

3. Ray Rice (2068/15/76) – The Ravens are going to have a major identity crisis this year. They’ve had a ton of success as a ground and pound offense, with a dominating defense to back them up. However, the defense has some glaring holes (namely their senor citizen line backing corps and secondary) and is going to be a liability this year, putting the offense in a bad spot: playing from behind. The Machine has little faith in Joe Flacco and his merry crew: Bolden (slow), Evans (crusty), Smith (Mr. Go-Route). The silver lining to all of this is that Ray Rice will be a major part of every game plan and the production will continue. His fantasy floor is high (in standard scoring leagues he scored 14+ fantasy points in 13 of 16 games), and his durability is a fantasy asset (has played in every game for 3 straight years); being able to plug in your studs each and every week is huge.

4. Chris Johnson (1465/4/57) – Which CJ28 is going to show up, the 2009-10 sensational speedster or the 2011 oft-maligned version? With a top 5 ranking The Machines stance is pretty clear; we’re willing to bet on a 27 year old feature back that already has two 1600+ yards from scrimmage seasons under his belt, 42 trips to pay dirt, and sub 4.3 speed. Sign us up for the 1500 yards and double-digit scores please!

5. Daren McFadden (768/5/19) – What do we love about Run DMC (other than his ridiculously awesome nickname)? That stat line is for 7 games. Extrapolated over a full season that’s some of the charts production (1755, 11, 43). What do we hate about Run DMC? That stat line is for 7 games. Homeboy is currently the biggest tease in the fantasy world. He burned a lot of bridges for fantasy teams in the second half of last year. So why the aggressive ranking when the injury whistle is blaring? Because The Machine is concerned with one thing: Winning Championships. Run DMC has two things going for him this year that he has never had before: a competent front office and an empowered coaching staff. No more Big Al calling the ‘H-back sweep left’ from the Owners Box play after play, series after series. Sure, it might mean fewer touches per game, but more games overall. Run DMC Run!

6. Ryan Mathews (1646/6/42) – Mathews 2011 season went a long way to prove that he isn’t as big of a pussy as we thought he was after 2010. He fully showcased his skills and justified the Chargers move up to grab him 12 overall in 2010. Despite his propensity to put the ball on the ground at a Tiki Barberesque pace (13:10 TD to fumble ratio), his head coach hasn’t updated the playbook since 1996 (read: run heavy) and Mike Tolbert is now a Panther. Mathews is primed to take the next step.

7. Maurice Jones-Drew (1980/11/43) – One of The Machines all time favorites, and your 2011 NFL Rushing Title Champ. MJD is built like a brick house and can squat a Volkswagen. So what’s holding him back from claiming a higher spot on this list? Well, in alphabetical order: Bratkowski (Bob), Eben (Britton), Gabbert (Blaine), Gabbert (Blaine), Gabbert (Blaine), Monroe (Eugene), Mularky (Mike), Smith (Gene)….

8. Trent Richardson (Rookie) – When I die I hope I’m reincarnated as a 1950’s NFL Hall of Fame running back so that I can get a free pass to be a terrible actor and say as much horseshit to the media as Jim Brown does. Seriously Jim, do yourself a favor, toss the League of Nations hat in the washing machine and check yourself into a retirement home. I’m sure you’ll be a real terror on the shuffleboard court. This ranking alone tells you everything you need to know about this Richardson. He is special running back and is going to be a workhorse from day one.

9. Matt Forte (1487/4/52) – The Machine can’t blame Matt Forte for wanting to get paid; he’s among the league leaders in touches per game (21.25 touches/game) and makes the most of his touches (117 yards/game). He has produced (in fantasy & reality) like a franchise caliber running back and now he wants his bank. The Machine also can’t blame the Bears for not wanting to pay him. Sure, the production outpaced the Contract, but isn’t that the point?! Has hit the 1000 touches mile marker and broke down at the end of next year. The Bears made a leverage play with the Michael Bush signing (4 years, $14M…..$7M guaranteed), so this situation could get real ugly. We love what Forte brings to the field, but this ranking comes with a giant asterisk next to it. Stay tuned.

10. Adrian Peterson (1109/13/18) – We all know what ‘All Day’ was capable of BEFORE reconstructive knee surgery. Over the last two seasons AP has averaged a healthy 16 fantasy points per game despite playing behind arguably the worst offensive line in football, and dealing with the Brett Favre-Donovan McNabb-Christian Ponder experiment. This is another situation worth monitoring, but if Peterson is running and cutting in training camp and/or preseason The Machine has no qualms tabbing him the #10 fantasy running back.

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