{"id":1546,"date":"2014-05-04T09:51:06","date_gmt":"2014-05-04T13:51:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bigredsportsmachine.com\/?p=1546"},"modified":"2014-05-04T09:52:03","modified_gmt":"2014-05-04T13:52:03","slug":"the-myth-of-the-first-round-quarterback","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bigredsportsmachine.com\/?p=1546","title":{"rendered":"The Myth of the First Round Quarterback"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Draft<\/a><\/p>\n

As the Draft approaches, The Machine smiles with delight.\u00a0 Each year, the slate is wiped clean, each team is reborn, and the Draft begins the process of building your team into the next NFL powerhouse.\u00a0 Hell, it\u2019s even a good time to be a Jets fan.\u00a0 It\u2019s also a great time to test your knowledge of your team, and see how your mock matches up to the \u201cexperts\u201d.<\/p>\n

One common theme each year is that teams at the top of the Draft need to grab that franchise quarterback.\u00a0 \u201cNew regime, new quarterback\u201d is often thrown around.\u00a0 But is that really true nowadays?\u00a0 Is spending a first round pick on a quarterback a must?\u00a0 Recent history would tell us otherwise.\u00a0 Let\u2019s look at The Machine\u2019s uber-fancy chart of the last two years of playoffs teams, and where these quarterbacks were drafted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

2013<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Team<\/strong><\/td>\nQB<\/strong><\/td>\nRound (pick)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Broncos<\/td>\nPeyton Manning<\/td>\n1st<\/sup> (1)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Indy<\/td>\nAndrew Luck<\/td>\n1st<\/sup> (1)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Carolina<\/td>\nCan Newton<\/td>\n1st<\/sup> (1)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kansas City<\/td>\nAlex Smith<\/td>\n1st<\/sup> (1)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
San Diego<\/td>\nPhilip Rivers<\/td>\n1st<\/sup> (4)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Green Bay<\/td>\nAaron Rodgers<\/td>\n1st<\/sup> (24)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New Orleans<\/td>\nDrew Brees<\/td>\n2nd<\/sup> (32)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cincinnati<\/td>\nAndy Dalton<\/td>\n2nd<\/sup> (35)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
San Fran<\/td>\nColin Kaepernick<\/td>\n2nd<\/sup> (36)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Philly<\/td>\nNick Foles<\/td>\n3rd<\/sup> (88)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Seahawks<\/td>\nRussell Wilson<\/td>\n3rd<\/sup> (75)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Patriots<\/td>\nTom Brady<\/td>\n6th<\/sup> (199)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

2012<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Team<\/strong><\/td>\nQB<\/strong><\/td>\nRound (pick)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Broncos<\/td>\nPeyton Manning<\/td>\n1st<\/sup> (1)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Indy<\/td>\nAndrew Luck<\/td>\n1st<\/sup> (1)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Washington<\/td>\nRGIII<\/td>\n1st<\/sup> (2)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Atlanta<\/td>\nMatt Ryan<\/td>\n1st<\/sup> (3)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Baltimore<\/td>\nJoe Flacco<\/td>\n1st<\/sup> (18)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Green Bay<\/td>\nAaron Rodgers<\/td>\n1st<\/sup> (24)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cincinnati<\/td>\nAndy Dalton<\/td>\n2nd<\/sup> (35)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
San Fran<\/td>\nColin Kaepernick<\/td>\n2nd<\/sup> (36)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Seattle<\/td>\nRussell Wilson<\/td>\n3rd<\/sup> (75)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Houston<\/td>\nMatt Schaub<\/td>\n3rd<\/sup> (90)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Minnesota<\/td>\nJoe Webb<\/td>\n6th<\/sup> (199)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Patriots<\/td>\nTom Brady<\/td>\n6th<\/sup> (199)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Over the last two years, having a first round QB gives you a 50% chance of making the playoffs.\u00a0 That\u2019s it.\u00a0 Not really overwhelming odds, about the same odds The Machine has to date Kate Upton.\u00a0 Obviously, much more goes into making the playoffs than having a first round quarterback\u2026but that\u2019s exactly our point.<\/p>\n

\"Yeah,<\/a>

Yeah, a 50% chance seems right.<\/p><\/div>\n

Football is the ultimate team sport, and teams should be focused on building a balanced team, and valuing team positions (OL, DL, Secondary) over individual skill positions (QB, RB, WR).\u00a0 Look no further than the reigning Super Bowl Champions, the Seattle Seahawks.\u00a0 Seattle\u2019s rise to Super Bowl Champion did not come on the arm of a first round QB or the hands of a legit #1 WR.\u00a0 Instead, Seattle had a dominant offensive line that made Marshawn Lynch (a Buffalo Bills reject) a Top 5 RB, and gave Russell Wilson the time to throw to a collection of no name WRs.\u00a0 And we all know about their punishing defense.<\/p>\n

Also, of the QBs that were taken in the first round, the majority of them were taken #1 overall (Peyton, Cam, Andrew Luck).\u00a0 These players were known to be can\u2019t miss, franchise QBs.<\/p>\n

So what does that tell us?\u00a0 Unless there\u2019s a can\u2019t miss talent at QB, you\u2019re better off addressing other needs, and waiting to draft a QB later.<\/p>\n

\"Is<\/a>

Is anyone falling faster than Teddy?<\/p><\/div>\n

\"Face<\/a>

Face of the franchise? Another good decision by Johnny Football.<\/p><\/div>\n

Now let\u2019s apply that concept to this years\u2019 Draft.\u00a0 There are a lot of QB needy teams, including Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota, all of whom have Top 10 picks in the Draft.\u00a0 Here\u2019s the list of the Top QBs:\u00a0 Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater.\u00a0 None of these guys have the same pedigree or ranking as Peyton, Cam, or Andrew Luck, or even RGIII or Matt Ryan.\u00a0 Simply put:\u00a0 while some (or all) may turn into great QBs, you certainly can\u2019t call any of them a can\u2019t miss prospect.<\/p>\n

What that has resulted in is a couple of things.\u00a0 One, teams at the top of the first round are thinking twice about drafting a QB in the first.\u00a0 Teddy Bridgewater, the consensus #1 pick three months ago, is now falling out of the first round\u2026Johnny Football is also dropping.\u00a0 Two, teams are looking at the next group of Quarterbacks in the class.<\/p>\n

\"Jimmy's<\/a>

Jimmy’s leading the Day 2 charge of QBs.<\/p><\/div>\n

Indeed, the focus has been shifted to the second and third rounds, and the buzz is now over guys like Derek Carr, Jimmy Garropolo, Tom Savage, Zack Mettenberger, and AJ McCarron.\u00a0 People are looking for the next Russell Wilson, or Colin Kaepernick.\u00a0 Logan Thomas and Tajh Boyd are also getting some attention.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Could<\/a>

Could this be the best QB in the Draft?<\/p><\/div>\n

Point is:\u00a0 you don\u2019t need a first round QB to have success in the NFL. \u00a0Don’t buy into the myth that you “need” to draft one in the first round. \u00a0The best QB in the Draft could be sitting there on Day 2.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the Draft approaches, The Machine smiles with delight.\u00a0 Each year, the slate is wiped clean, each team is reborn, and the Draft begins the process of building your team into the next NFL powerhouse.\u00a0 Hell, it\u2019s even a good … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[16,24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1546","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-draft","category-nfl"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p2Bp3y-oW","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bigredsportsmachine.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1546","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bigredsportsmachine.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bigredsportsmachine.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bigredsportsmachine.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bigredsportsmachine.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1546"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.bigredsportsmachine.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1546\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1552,"href":"https:\/\/www.bigredsportsmachine.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1546\/revisions\/1552"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bigredsportsmachine.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1546"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bigredsportsmachine.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1546"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bigredsportsmachine.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1546"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}