As we inch closer to the draft (are we there yet?!) The Machine is busy tracking, among other things, two phenomena that tend to occur this time of the year: (1) the massive amount of misinformation being reported (generated first and foremost by NFL front offices) and (2) the overabundance of mock drafts.  Draftniks alike can’t seem to help themselves this time of the year, posting new and updated mocks daily.  You all have a problem.  And we love you for it!

There seems to be two schools of thought when it comes to mocking the draft.  The traditionalists prefer the straight-up mock draft.  No trading.  Each team gets their turn and that’s it.  The rationale being that mocking the draft is hard enough, mixing in the variable of trades makes the task damn near impossible.  The second group, the younger generation if you will, theorize trade scenarios based on projected player availability, team needs and team philosophy.

Realistically, the truth lies somewhere in-between.  Wheeling and dealing will always be part of the draft, and if last years dizzying pace was an indication (14 slots swapped in the first round alone) this year will feature some thrilling blockbusters (we’re looking at you Revis/Tampa Bay….or perhaps a dark horse team?!)

However, I’ve got a real issue with some of the trades being mocked.  For example, draftniks seem all too comfortable with the Bills drafting a WR/DL/CB with the No. 8 overall pick, justifying that the team can take a QB at No.  41, or even trade back into the bottom of the first round and grab their QB.  They fail to consider that the Bills only have six total picks; not exactly a cache of ammunition.  Given their (lack of) talent, they can ill afford to give up the picks necessary to jump from No. 41 into the low 20’s.  On the contrary, I’d expect the Bills to be actively shopping both the No. 8 and No. 41 pick in an effort to acquire more picks.

This lead The Machine to take a closer look at each teams draft pick status heading into the draft to identify which teams might be looking, and more importantly have the resources to move up in the draft.  Here is the breakdown, with some interesting observations to follow:

•  Last years Super Bowl teams, San Francisco and Baltimore, account for 25 total picks, or approximately 10% of the picks in this years draft.
• 7 out of the top 8 teams (in terms of draft picks) made the playoffs last year.  Miami being the lone exception.  Conversely, only 3 out of the bottom 8 teams made the playoffs.  This is not a coincidence.  Good team/roster management includes keeping and acquiring draft picks.
• Speaking of Miami, if this offseason has shown us anything it’s that Jeff Ireland is GM-ing for his job.  We’d expect that trend to continue throughout the draft with Miami combining picks to move up the draft board.  This is a dangerous way to build a team.  We like the odds that Ireland is unemployed this time next year.
• SF and Seattle have been in a bot of an arms race in terms of collecting talent.  The NFC West crown is up for grabs.  Both teams have plenty of ammunition to trade up to get “their” guy.  I expect SF to be particularly aggressive (DL/CB/WR).
• Atlanta is 1 of 7 teams with double-digit picks.  Dimitroff has shown a penchant for being aggressive on draft day (Julio Jones).  Atlanta is a candidate to move up in the top ten.
• I think Oakland, Carolina, Buffalo and Indianapolis will actively look to trade down when possible.  Although, I think Bills and the Colts will target a QB and OL, respectively, in the first round.
• New Orleans is interesting in that they are tied with for the fewest picks (5) but also must feel they are close to competing for the division title (3 years removed from SB and getting Sean Payton back).  However, BountyGate has really taken its toll on this roster (particularly) the defense.  The Saints would be wise to trade down early and often this year.
• It will be interesting to see if Jerry Jones can stay put this year, as he only has 6 picks to work with.