Green Bay at San Francisco (-2.5)
By far the hardest game to predict this weekend. The Machine has gone back and forth on this one. On the one hand, the Packers are red hot, and hot at the right time. Who cares if you can’t name their starting running back? Over the last four games, Aaron Rodgers has 11 tds and 0 ints. Rodgers has quietly put together an MVP-like season, throwing for nearly 4,300 yards, 39 tds, and 8 ints, and that’s not including the 274/1/0 he put up against the Vikes last week. Defense has been their weakness this year, but they are healthy and held Adrian Peterson to under 100 yards last week (after giving up over 400 yards to AP during the regular season).
On the other hand, you have the 49ers. Hands down, the best D in the league. They are faster, nastier, and hit harder than any other team (and we all know defense wins championships). Their coach is the most intense man in the NFL (The Machine can’t tell if he’s smiling or dropping a deuce) and he clearly will do anything to win now (just ask Alex Smith). On offense, they run hard and run often, finishing 4th in the league at more than 155 yards a game. Coach Harbaugh made the gutsiest call of the year, handing the reigns over to Colin Kaepernick mid-season (check out The Machine’s exclusive coverage of that here). And while it’s easy to say the experiment worked out (the Niners won the NFC West and got a first round bye) the numbers aren’t as clear.
Remarkably, Smith and Kaepernick each attempted 218 passes, which makes it ridiculously easy to compare them. Kaepernick went for 1,814/10/3 for a solid QB rating of 98.3 (and 9 fumbles). Smith was 1,737/13/5 and 4 fumbles, for a QB rating of 104.1. So who’s better? While Smith has slightly better numbers this year, the answer is: it doesn’t matter. With a premier running game and defense, all you need is a QB with a decent arm and a heartbeat (similar to The Machine’s taste in women…sorry to all my female amputee fans).
And, these teams already played each other this year, with San Francisco winning 30-22 in Green Bay. But that was soooo Week 1.
With a match up this close, it all comes down to storylines, and there is no better storyline than this: Revenge. Who could forget 2005, when the Niners, holding the #1 pick in the draft, selected Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers, a NoCal native whose favorite team growing up was San Francisco. Rodgers (painfully) sat in the green room and inexplicably fell all the way to 24. Obviously, Aaron Rodgers, with his Super Bowl ring, Super Bowl MVP, regular season MVP, Associated Press Athlete of the Year, and discount double-check, is the better quarterback than the now-backup Smith. So perhaps Aaron isn’t mad anymore…I mean, it was almost 8 years ago. But then The Machine stumbled upon this, and this, and realized this:
Aaron Rodgers has been waiting for this day since April 23, 2005. He has been biding his time, knowing, hoping, that this day would come. Where he could go back home, into the stadium where he wanted to play, in front of his family and friends and, more importantly, the front office executives of the Niners, and make those fuckers pay, and pay dearly.
Rodgers is going to come out fired up, like Ray Lewis out of the tunnel fired up. He will inspire his defense to play better. Although listed as probable, Justin Smith and his floppy triceps will prevent the Niners from getting the consistent up front pressure they’ll need to contain Rodgers. This will give Aaron enough time in the pocket to find his healthy stable of receivers. It will also open up some running lanes for him as well (yes, we’re calling a rushing td for him too).
While The Machine (at least Ginger King) has not done well picking against the Niners this year, the playoffs are all about who’s hot, and right now, no one’s hotter than the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. Add on top of that the powerful motivator of revenge, and this has upset written all over it. Take the Pack with points (and throw some on the money line too).
Green Bay 24, San Francisco 20