Alright we’re back and ready for another weekend of NFL playoff action. We’re going to be straight with you: last week was brutal, at least from a betting perspective. The Machine was 2-2 straight up, but a pathetic 0-4 ATS. But have no fear: We’re doubling down on our Coors Light intake and ready to make out mortgage payment back. Let’s get to it.
Kansas City @ New England, Saturday 4:35 PM
Line: NE +5, O/U 44
As if you need a reason to hate the Patriots even more: this is their 6th straight home playoff game in the Divisional Round. Sometimes, cheating pays off. In the 5 prior Divisional playoff games, the Pats are 4-1 (3-2 ATS). That’s a real nerdy way of saying we like their chances.
But there’s two things that are going to make this game close: injuries and synthetic marijuana. No one needed the bye week more than the Patriots. After winning their first 10 games, the Pats went 4-6 down the stretch, and were hobbled by injuries all around. The Patriots will get Julien Edelmen back, but now comes word that Gronk’s playing time is questionable. He was limited in practice all week, and didn’t practice Thursday. In addition to that, there’s Belichick’s unexplained shiner, plus Chandler Jones’ weekend bender (are those things related, why is no one reporting on that angle?)
There’s a scandal here somewhere…
Oh yeah, there’s one other thing to keep in mind: The Chiefs. Kansas City started the season at 1-5, but then won 11 straight, punctuated with a 30-0 shellacking of the Texans last weekend. Just think what this team could be if Jamaal Charles were healthy. Just think what my fantasy team could’ve been. But it’s not the offense that first comes to mind. It’s the defense. Led by all-world Justin Houston, the Chiefs allow fewer than 18 points a game, good for 3rd overall. They also rank 4th in sacks. If you watched last week’s Wild Card matchup against Houston, the Chiefs defense was unreal. Perfect combination of pressure and press coverage, Andy Reid deserves coach of the year. The Chiefs defense alone will keep this game close. I don’t care how much illegal taping the Pats have done…their line will not be able to stop K.C. from putting constant pressure on Brady.
Where the Chiefs will struggle is finding points. Alex “I’m not a game manager (yes you are)” Smith leads an offense that ranks 27th overall (30th in passing) by far the worst of the playoff teams. With a banged up Jeremy Maclin, throwing the ball will be even tougher. Maclin leads the team in catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns. And the Patriots defense is no slouch, ranking second overall in sacks.
As much as we’d love to call an upset, we just don’t see it happening. The Chiefs haven’t won in Foxboro since 1990 (0-5), right about the time the Machine was heading into our awkward teen years (or elementary school for Roid Rage – young punk). Despite the injuries to the offense, the Patriots defense will carry the day. Provided Chandler Jones lays off the pipe, they should be able to keep 8 in the box and force Alex Smith to throw.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Kansas City 17
Whatever happened to regular weed?
Halftime:
Green Bay @ Arizona, Saturday 8:15 PM
Line: ARZ +7, O/U 49.5
Three words: Bet. The. Over. This game screams shootout in the making, as the Packers travel to Arizona for a little redemption against the Cardinals. These teams played each other in Week 16, and Arizona laid the wood to Green Bay, sacking Aaron Rodgers 8 times en route to a 38-8 victory. But even though that game was less than three weeks ago, it feels like forever. Now the Cardinals get Playoff Aaron Rodgers, and that’s not an easy task.
In 12 playoff games, Rodgers has thrown 25 tds and only 7 ints, and has a qb rating over 100. He’s exactly the guy you want leading your team in the playoffs. However, the Packers can’t completely rely on Aaron to bail them out. For Green Bay to have success, it needs balance with the running game. Last week against Washington, they found it, as both Eddie Lacy and James Starks rushed for touchdowns. As a team, Green Bay rushed for over 140 yards. This forced Washington to honor the run, which opens up more lanes for Rodgers.
For Arizona, it’s all about getting over the hump…and that hump is Carson Palmer. Although it’s not a huge body of evidence, Carson is the only qb left in the playoffs to not win a playoff game, going 0-2, with one td, one int, and a qb rating of 66.5. He hasn’t played in the playoffs since ’09 and, at 36 years old (that’s not really old, btw) the window is closing on his chances for playoff redemption.
Despite the disparity in playoff qb comparisons, we like Arizona. The Cardinals have been flying high all season, winning a franchise record 13 games, and having the best balance in the league, with both a Top 10 offense and defense. It’s that consistency that gives The Machine a chubby. That, and Lifetime movie marathons. But we digress…
Defensively, Arizona creates matchup nightmare after matchup nightmare. Patrick Peterson is the best corner in the game (sorry, Richard), and Calais Campbell upfront is unstoppable. With so much speed in the secondary, they execute the best corner blitzes in the league, and their strength at the ends allows them to overpower the line, oftentimes resulting in plays like this:
The Cardinals are a perfect 4-0 in home playoff games. We like their chances to extend that streak, and for Carson to get his first playoff win.
Prediction: Arizona 38, Green Bay 30
Popcorn AND White Zin…sign us up!